Federal voting intention

Jul 18, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 11/7/17 2 weeks ago 4/7/17 4 weeks ago 20/6/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 33%   33% 35% 35%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 36%   36% 38% 38%   42.0%
Labor 38%   36% 36% 35%   34.7%
Greens 10%   11% 11% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7%   7% 7% 9%    
Other/Independent 6%   6% 5% 5%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 46%   46% 47% 48%   50.4%
Labor 54%   54% 53% 52%   49.6%

NB. Sample = 1,830. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Same sex marriage

Jul 18, 2017

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other Oct 2015 Mar 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Jun 2017 Jul 2017
Should be allowed to marry 61% 72% 55% 74% 42% 59% 64% 58% 62% 60% 63%
Should not be allowed to marry 26% 17% 32% 18% 46% 30% 26% 28% 27% 26% 25%
Don’t know 13% 11% 13% 9% 12% 11% 10% 14% 12% 14% 12%

61% thought that people of the same sex should be able to marry and 26% thought that they should not. Women (66% support) were more likely than men (56%) to support same sex marriage. 81% of 18-24 year olds supported same sex marriage, compared to 46% of over 65 year olds. These results are similar to those of polling over the last few years.

Decision on same sex marriage

Jul 18, 2017

Q. How do you think a decision on legalising same sex marriage should be made?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Should be allowed to marry Should not be allowed to marry
A vote in Parliament where politicians can vote according to their conscience or party policy 23%   28% 22% 39% 18% 29% 12%
A national vote which is binding on Parliament 50%   49% 54% 33% 57% 53% 56%
A non-binding national vote which is followed by a vote in parliament where politicians can vote according to their conscience or party policy 9%   9% 9% 11% 11% 8% 15%
Don’t know 17%   14% 15% 17% 14% 10% 17%

 50% of respondents want a national vote that is binding on Parliament, 23% want a vote in Parliament without a national vote and only 9% want a national vote followed by a vote in Parliament.

Those most likely to favour a vote in Parliament without a national vote were Greens voters (39%), aged 65+ (32%), university educated (29%) and those who support same-sex marriage (29%),

Note – previous poll questions were asked with 2 options – Should be decided by Parliament 29%, Should have a national vote 59%, Don’t know 12%. (last polled July 2017)

South Australian battery

Jul 18, 2017

Q. It was recently announced by the South Australian government that technology company Tesla will construct the “world’s largest battery” in South Australia. The battery will store wind energy to be used in high-demand periods, with the aim of increasing the reliability of the South Australian energy grid. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total good idea 73%   79% 70% 82% 69%
Total bad idea 5%   1% 8% 1% 11%
Very good idea 42%   48% 40% 46% 39%
Good idea 31%   31% 30% 36% 30%
Neither god nor bad idea 14%   12% 14% 13% 14%
Bad idea 2%   1% 3% 1% 5%
Very bad idea 3%   <1% 5% 6%
Don’t know 8%   8% 7% 3% 6%

73% agree that the construction of the battery in South Australia is a good idea and 5% think it is a bad idea. Those most likely to think it is a good idea were Greens voters (82%), Labor voters (79%) and university educated (79%).

65% of South Australian respondents think it is a good idea, 8% think it is a bad idea and 22% think it is neither. (note – small sample)

Statements about politics

Jul 18, 2017

Q. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

  Total agree Total disagree   Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
Political parties in Australia are too ideological 45% 12%   13% 32% 31% 10% 2% 11%
I don’t personally identify with either “left wing” or “right wing” politics 50% 18%   19% 31% 26% 14% 4% 7%
I would consider voting for a new “centrist” political party which takes ideas from both sides of politics 45% 14%   11% 34% 29% 9% 5% 12%
I wish both sides of politics would try to ‘meet each other in the middle’ more often 71% 6%   28% 43% 18% 4% 2% 6%
There is no substantial difference between the policies of the Labor and Liberal Parties 37% 30%   11% 26% 25% 22% 8% 8%
We don’t need any new political parties – the Labor, Liberal and minor parties represent the interests of most Australians. 43% 26%   13% 30% 24% 17% 9% 8%

 

  Total agree   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Political parties in Australia are too ideological 45%   43% 47% 45% 52%
I don’t personally identify with either “left wing” or “right wing” politics 50%   46% 46% 54% 63%
I would consider voting for a new “centrist” political party which takes ideas from both sides of politics 45%   50% 42% 42% 56%
I wish both sides of politics would try to ‘meet each other in the middle’ more often 71%   75% 74% 59% 75%
There is no substantial difference between the policies of the Labor and Liberal Parties 37%   29% 39% 35% 58%
We don’t need any new political parties – the Labor, Liberal and minor parties represent the interests of most Australians. 43%   55% 57% 30% 26%

There was strong agreement with the statement that both sides of politics should try to “meet in the middle” (71%). Half agree that they don’t personally identify as either “Left” or “right”.

They were most divided on the statements that “there is no substantial difference between the parties policies” (37% agree/30% disagree) and that we don’t need any new political parties” (43% agree/26% disagree).

World Leaders

Jul 18, 2017

Q. Do you hold favourable or unfavourable views of the following world leaders?

  Favourable Unfavourable Don’t know   Favour-able Vote Labor Favour-able Vote Lib/Nat Favour-able Vote Greens Favour-able Vote other
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 51% 11% 38%   55% 56% 61% 40%
German Chancellor Angela Merkel 43% 17% 40%   43% 55% 51% 33%
French President Emmanuel Macron 41% 14% 44%   44% 48% 49% 36%
UK Prime Minister Theresa May 33% 27% 40%   29% 46% 21% 38%
Russian President Vladimir Putin 16% 61% 23%   15% 17% 15% 27%
US President Donald Trump 16% 70% 14%   9% 23% 7% 29%
North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-Un 6% 80% 13%   7% 9% 4% 4%

Respondents were most likely to have a favourable view of Justin Trudeau (51%), Angela Merkel (43%) and Emmanuel Macron (41%).

Liberal/National voters were more likely than average to have a favourable view of Theresa May (46%) and Donald Trump (23%).

Labor voters did not differ much from the average – except for their low rating of Donald Trump (9% favourable).

Work and automation

Jul 18, 2017

Q. Which statement best represents your current situation? (In these statements, “automation” means the use of machines and technology to replace human processes). 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
My job has already been replaced by automation 3%   5% 2% 5% 3% 2%
My job has been significantly changed my automation 9%   11% 7% 12% 8% 5%
I expect my job to be replaced by automation in the next five years 11%   12% 10% 17% 9% 4%
I don’t think my job will be replaced by automation in the foreseeable future 59%   56% 61% 53% 64% 58%
Don’t know 18%   16% 20% 14% 16% 30%

(Based on those working)

59% of working respondents don’t think their job will be replaced by automation in the foreseeable future. 3% say that have already been replaced by automation, 9% say their job has significantly changed and 11% expect their job to be replaced by automation. 53% of those aged 18-34 don’t think their job will be replaced by automation compared to 64% of those aged 35-54.

 

Technological Change

Jul 18, 2017

Q. Overall, do you think technological advances in recent years have been positive for:

  Total agree Total disagree Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
Culture/entertainment 57% 9% 14% 43% 27% 6% 3% 7%
National security 53% 16% 14% 39% 22% 12% 4% 9%
Provision of government services 50% 14% 10% 40% 28% 9% 5% 9%
Personal safety 49% 16% 11% 38% 27% 12% 4% 8%
Provision of private services 45% 11% 9% 36% 31% 8% 3% 14%
Personal relationships 31% 30% 7% 24% 32% 22% 8% 7%
Job security 27% 34% 7% 20% 30% 23% 11% 9%

By demographic:

  Total agree   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Culture/entertainment 57% 55% 58% 66% 56% 48%
National security 53% 56% 48% 53% 51% 53%
Provision of government services 50% 56% 44% 50% 51% 48%
Personal safety 49% 51% 47% 56% 48% 42%
Provision of private services 45% 50% 40% 52% 44% 39%
Personal relationships 31% 35% 26% 41% 29% 21%
Job security 27% 31% 21% 38% 24% 18%

At least half the respondents think that technological advances have been positive for culture/entertainment (57%), national security (53%) and provision of Government services (50%). However, they were divided over job security (27% agree/34% disagree) and personal relationships (31%/30%).

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