Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 2, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,811 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election 7 Sep 13

7 weeks ago 15/12/15

Last week 25/1/16

This week 2/2/16

Liberal

42%

40%

40%

National

3%

4%

4%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

45%

44%

44%

Labor

33.4%

35%

35%

35%

Greens

8.6%

10%

10%

11%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

1%

1%

1%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

9%

9%

2 Party Preferred

Election 7 Sep 13

7 weeks ago 15/12/15

Last week 25/1/16

This week 2/2/16

Liberal National

53.5%

52%

52%

51%

Labor

46.5%

48%

48%

49%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Republic

Feb 2, 2016

Q. Are you in favour or against Australia becoming a republic?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

 

Jun 2012

Apr 2014

Oct 2014

Feb 2015

Sep 2015

Shift since Sep 2015

In favour

36%

44%

30%

53%

41%

 

 

39%

33%

31%

34%

39%

-3

Against

31%

24%

43%

11%

36%

 

 

35%

42%

31%

34%

29%

+2

No opinion

33%

33%

27%

36%

23%

 

 

27%

25%

38%

32%

32%

+1

36% (down 3% since September) of respondents were in favour of Australian becoming a republic and 31% (up 2%) were against. 33% could not give an opinion.

Greens (53%) and Labor (44%) voters were more likely to be in favour of a republic. 43% of Liberal/National voters were opposed. Those more in favour were men (42%), higher income earners (42% of those earning $1,600+ pw) and university educated (45%).

Support for republic at end of Queen’s reign

Feb 2, 2016

Q. Would you support or oppose Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

Jan 2014

Total support

45%

51%

41%

57%

44%

46%

41%

47%

47%

Total oppose

29%

21%

38%

18%

36%

22%

30%

35%

32%

Strongly support

23%

29%

18%

32%

25%

19%

23%

27%

21%

Support

22%

22%

23%

25%

19%

27%

18%

20%

26%

Oppose

18%

14%

25%

14%

16%

14%

19%

21%

15%

Strongly oppose

11%

7%

13%

4%

20%

8%

11%

14%

17%

No opinion

27%

27%

21%

26%

21%

32%

29%

18%

20%

45% (down 2% since January 2014) support Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign and 29% (down 3%) oppose. 27% (up 7%) have no opinion on the question.

Those most supportive of becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign were Labor voters (51%) Greens voters (57%), men (49%) and those with university education (54%).

Will Australia ever become a Republic

Feb 2, 2016

Q. Do you think that Australia is likely or unlikely to ever become a republic?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Support republic

Oppose republic

Jun 2012

Apr 2014

Total likely

56%

59%

60%

60%

60%

82%

43%

52%

46%

Total unlikely

24%

22%

28%

21%

26%

14%

41%

34%

37%

Very likely

19%

21%

21%

21%

17%

41%

8%

12%

12%

Somewhat likely

37%

38%

39%

39%

43%

41%

35%

40%

34%

Somewhat unlikely

17%

15%

21%

15%

15%

11%

27%

25%

25%

Very unlikely

7%

7%

7%

6%

11%

3%

14%

9%

12%

Don’t know

19%

18%

12%

17%

15%

4%

16%

15%

16%

56% (up 10% since April 2014) of Australians believe it is likely that Australia will one day become a republic. Just 24% (down 13%) think it is unlikely. There was little difference in opinion across voter groups.

65% of males, compared to 49% of females believe it is likely that Australia will one day become a republic.
82% of those who support the republic and 43% of those opposed think it is likely.

Trust in media

Feb 2, 2016

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?

Total a lot /some trust

A lot of trust

Some trust

Not much trust

No trust at all

Don’t know

Don’t use

 

 

Total a lot /some Jun 12

Total a lot /some Jan 13

Total a lot /some Nov 14

Total a lot /some Jun 15

ABC TV news and current affairs

66%

21%

45%

14%

7%

3%

10%

 

 

74%

73%

69%

63%

SBS TV news and current affairs

63%

17%

46%

13%

7%

4%

14%

66%

61%

ABC radio news and current affairs

62%

18%

44%

14%

7%

4%

13%

 

 

69%

70%

62%

58%

News and opinion in local newspapers

49%

5%

44%

28%

10%

4%

9%

 

 

56%

55%

53%

50%

News and opinion in daily newspapers

49%

5%

44%

27%

11%

4%

9%

 

 

52%

48%

50%

45%

ABC radio talkback programs

49%

10%

39%

21%

10%

4%

17%

 

 

50%

49%

48%

46%

Commercial TV news and current affairs

48%

6%

42%

29%

14%

4%

5%

 

 

46%

44%

48%

46%

Commercial radio news and current affairs

46%

4%

42%

26%

13%

4%

11%

 

 

45%

46%

45%

44%

News and opinion websites

44%

4%

40%

31%

11%

4%

10%

 

 

40%

40%

42%

39%

Commercial radio talkback programs

34%

4%

30%

31%

16%

4%

15%

33%

32%

33%

34%

Internet blogs

23%

3%

20%

35%

22%

4%

17%

 

 

20%

23%

22%

20%

Overall, trust in media has risen a little since this question was asked last year – however rankings remain much the same.

The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current affairs (66% a lot/some trust), SBS TV news and current affairs (63%) and ABC radio news and current affairs (62%).

The least trusted were internet blogs (23%) and commercial radio talkback programs (34%).

Support for changes

Feb 2, 2016

Q. Would you support or oppose any of the following?

Total support

Total oppose

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose

No opinion

Changing the Australian flag

33%

55%

13%

20%

22%

32%

13%

Changing the National Anthem

28%

54%

12%

16%

24%

30%

18%

Changing the date of Australia Day

23%

59%

11%

12%

24%

35%

17%

Total support

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

Support republic

Changing the Australian flag

33%

34%

31%

56%

34%

33%

31%

34%

64%

Changing the National Anthem

28%

31%

27%

34%

23%

30%

25%

28%

44%

Changing the date of Australia Day

23%

23%

22%

48%

17%

35%

20%

16%

40%

A majority were opposed to changing the Australian flag, the National Anthem or the date of Australia Day.
33% supported changing the Australian flag, 28% supported changing the National Anthem and 23% supported changing Australia Day.

Greens voters were more strongly in favour of changing the flag (56%) and the date of Australia Day (48%). Younger respondents were a little more likely to support changing the date of Australia Day (35%).

A majority (64%) of those who favour a republic supported changing the National Flag but were split on changing the National Anthem and the date of Australia day.

Trust in newspapers

Feb 2, 2016

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read in the following newspapers?

Total a lot/some

A lot of trust

Some trust

Not much trust

No trust at all

Don’t know

Total a lot/some Jul 2011

Total a lot/some Jun 2012

Total a lot/some Jan 2013

Total a lot/some Jun 2015

The Australian

63%

12%

51%

23%

9%

5%

69%

60%

65%

58%

The Telegraph (NSW only)

56%

10%

46%

27%

14%

4%

52%

49%

48%

46%

Sydney Morning Herald (NSW only)

66%

11%

55%

22%

7%

4%

74%

69%

71%

70%

The Age (Victoria only)

66%

15%

51%

18%

11%

5%

79%

76%

71%

66%

Herald Sun (Victoria only)

57%

10%

47%

24%

15%

4%

54%

51%

50%

48%

Courier Mail (Queensland only)

47%

6%

41%

34%

16%

2%

65%

51%

57%

48%

* Note : Percentages based only on respondents who had read each newspaper.

Overall, among those who have read them, the most trusted newspapers were the SMH (66% a lot/some trust), The Age (66%) and The Australian (63%). The Courier Mail (47%) was the least trusted.

Since this question was asked in 2015, there have been increases in trust for The Telegraph (up 10%), the HeraldSun (up 9%) and The Australian (up 5%).

Downloading from the Internet

Feb 2, 2016

Q. Do you or does anyone in your household download films, music or television shows via the internet for free?

Total

Men

Women

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

May 2012

Oct 2013

Yes

26%

28%

25%

39%

26%

13%

32%

27%

No

64%

63%

64%

49%

65%

79%

61%

64%

Don’t know

10%

9%

11%

12%

9%

8%

7%

9%

26% of respondents said they download films, music or television shows via the internet for free. This is much the same as recorded in 2013. Those most likely to download were aged under 35 (39%).

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