Federal voting intention

Feb 14, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 7/2/17 2 weeks ago 31/1/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 34%   33% 32%    
National 3%   2% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 36%   36% 35%   42.0%
Labor 35%   37% 37%   34.7%
Greens 9%   8% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 10%   10% 10%    
Other/Independent 6%   6% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred            
Liberal National 48%   47% 46%   50.4%
Labor 52%   53% 54%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,793. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Feb 14, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017
Total approve 34%   15% 70% 19% 19%   56% 45% 38% 35% 34% 37%
Total disapprove 49%   70% 19% 69% 70%   23% 35% 40% 43% 46% 48%
Strongly approve 5% 4% 9% 1% 2% 13% 6% 6% 4% 5% 6%
Approve 29% 11% 61% 18% 17% 43% 39% 32% 31% 29% 31%
Disapprove 28% 35% 15% 36% 38% 16% 24% 24% 27% 30% 30%
Strongly disapprove 21% 35% 4% 33% 32% 7% 11% 16% 16% 16% 18%
Don’t know 16% 14% 10% 11% 11% 21% 21% 21% 22% 20% 16%

 

34% (down 3% from 4 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from -11 to -15. This is Malcolm Turnbull’s worst net rating as Prime Minister.

70% (down 6%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 19% (up 2%) disapproving. 15% (down 5%) of Labor voters and 19% (up 6%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 38% approve/52% disapprove and women 31% approve/47% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Feb 14, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017
Total approve 30%   63% 18% 37% 12%   31% 35% 27% 27% 34% 36% 35% 37%
Total disapprove 47%   16% 66% 47% 72%   27% 39% 47% 47% 40% 41% 38% 44%
Strongly approve 5%   16% 1% 4% <1%   5% 7% 4% 3% 7% 6% 6% 7%
Approve 25%   47% 17% 33% 12%   26% 28% 23% 24% 27% 30% 29% 30%
Disapprove 27%   13% 32% 38% 36%   17% 23% 26% 29% 22% 24% 21% 25%
Strongly disapprove 20%   3% 34% 9% 36%   10% 16% 21% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19%
Don’t know 22%   21% 15% 15% 16%   43% 26% 25% 26% 25% 22% 25% 20%

30% (down 7% in last 4 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 47% (up 3%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -7 to -17. This is Bill Shorten’s worst net rating since March 2016.

63% (down 3%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 16% (down 3%) disapprove.

36% of men and 26% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 51% of men and 44% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Feb 14, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017
Malcolm Turnbull 39%   11% 81% 17% 33%   53% 54% 48% 40% 41% 41% 40% 39% 39%
Bill Shorten 25%   62% 4% 38% 10%   17% 15% 19% 29% 26% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Don’t know 36%   27% 16% 45% 56%   30% 31% 33% 32% 33% 31% 32% 33% 33%

39% (no change in last 4weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 25% (down 3%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

43% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 26% prefer Bill Shorten.

35% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 24% prefer Bill Shorten.

Cory Bernardi

Feb 14, 2017

Q. The Liberal Party Senator, Cory Bernardi, has announced he will leave the Liberal Party and remain in Parliament as a member of a new party, the Australian Conservatives. Do you think Senator Bernardi leaving the Liberals is good or bad for the Liberal Party?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Good for the Liberal Party 17%   19% 23% 23% 11%
Bad for the Liberal Party 26%   30% 28% 24% 29%
Neither 29%   28% 31% 26% 33%
Don’t know 28%   23% 18% 27% 27%

26% think that Cory Bernardi laving the Liberal party is bad for the Liberal Party and 17% think it is good for the Liberal Party. 29% think it is b=neither and 28% don’t know.

Among Liberal/National voters 28% think it is bad for the party and 23% good.

Likelihood of voting for Australian Conservatives

Feb 14, 2017

Q. How likely would you be to vote for this new party, the Australian Conservatives – in a future Federal election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total likely 14%   13% 18% 9% 16%
Total not likely 62%   66% 63% 82% 60%
Very likely 3%   4% 4% 1% 3%
Somewhat likely 11%   9% 14% 8% 13%
Not very likely 16%   14% 21% 9% 18%
Not at all likely 46%   52% 42% 73% 42%
Don’t know 25%   21% 19% 9% 24%

14% say they would be likely to vote for the Australian Conservatives and 62% say they would be unlikely to vote for them.

Among Liberal/National voters 18% say they would be likely to vote for the Australian Conservatives.

A similar question (asked in December last year) about a new conservative party which included Tony Abbott produced a voting intention of 23% likely (including 41% of Liberal/National voters), 58% not likely.

Government regulation

Feb 14, 2017

Q. Overall, do you think Australia has too much or not enough Government regulation?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Has too much regulation 33%   33% 31% 20% 52%
Has not enough regulation 19%   19% 22% 26% 18%
Has about the right amount of regulation 27%   28% 33% 28% 15%
Don’t know 22%   20% 15% 26% 15%

 

33% think that Australia has too much Government regulation and 19% think there is not enough regulation. 27% think there is the right amount and 22% don’t know.

There is little difference between the views of Liberal/National and Labor voters. However, 52% of other voters think there is too much regulation while Greens voters (20%) are less inclined to think there is too much.

 

 

Types of Government regulation

Feb 14, 2017

Q. Do you think there needs to be more or less Government regulation of the following, or is the current regulation about right?

  More regulation Less regulation Current regulation about right Don’t know
Air and water quality 38% 7% 37% 17%
Environmental protection laws 44% 12% 30% 14%
Public health standards 44% 10% 34% 12%
Educational regulations – eg teacher standards, 47% 11% 28% 14%
National security measures such as anti-terrorism laws 47% 10% 29% 14%
Child safety regulations 45% 9% 32% 13%
Traffic regulations 22% 23% 43% 12%
Alcohol regulations such as lock-out laws 30% 24% 32% 13%
Anti-discrimination regulations 32% 17% 37% 14%
Regulations on use of public space 18% 24% 41% 18%
Development regulation – eg zoning and DAs 27% 21% 33% 20%
Professional standards – eg electrician licensing 33% 10% 41% 16%
Laws prohibiting particular drugs 42% 21% 24% 14%
Consumer protection regulation 42% 8% 35% 16%

Close to half the respondents think there needs to be more regulation of education (47%), national security (47%), child safety (45%), public health (44%) and the environment (44%).

They are more likely to think there is enough regulation of traffic (43%), use of public space (41%) and professional standards (41%).

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