Federal voting intention

Dec 6, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

29/11/16

2 weeks ago

22/11/16

4 weeks ago

8/11/16

  Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 35%   36% 36% 35%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 38%   39% 38% 38%   42.0%
Labor 36%   36% 37% 37%   34.7%
Greens 9%   9% 10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   7% 6% 6%    
Other/Independent 6%   6% 6% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   49% 48% 47%   50.4%
Labor 52%   51% 52% 53%   49.6%

NB. Sample = 1,833 The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Party trust to handle issues

Dec 6, 2016

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

  Liberal Labor Don’t know   NET NET

Aug 2016

Security and the war on terrorism 39% 22% 39%   +17 +18
Management of the economy 41% 27% 32%   +14 +15
Controlling interest rates 33% 26% 41%   +7 +12
Managing population growth 32% 25% 42%   +7 +10
Treatment of asylum seekers 34% 28% 39%   +6 +6
Political leadership 33% 27% 40%   +6 +9
Ensuring a fair taxation system 32% 33% 35%   -1 -4
Ensuring a quality water supply 27% 30% 43%   -3
A fair industrial relations system 30% 37% 33%   -7 -8
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 28% 37% 35%   -9 -8
Housing affordability 25% 34% 40%   -9 -10
Ensuring a quality education for all children 28% 39% 33%   -11 -8
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 28% 40% 32%   -12 -8
Addressing climate change 23% 37% 40%   -14 -10
Protecting the environment 23% 37% 40%   -14 -11

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war on terrorism (+17) and management of the economy (+14).

The Labor Party is trusted more to handle protecting the environment (-14), addressing climate change (-14), the health system (-12) and education (-11).

Since this question was asked in August, the Labor Party has improved its position against the Liberal Party on controlling interest rates (up 5), climate change (up 4) and the health system (up 4).

Party best at looking after the economy

Dec 6, 2016

Q. Which party – Labor or Liberal – do you think is best when it comes to:

  Liberal Labor No Diff-erence Don’t Know   Diff-erence Liberal – Labor Mar 2016 diff-erence
Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests 48% 15% 22% 15%   +33 +37
Handling the economy overall 35% 24% 25% 16%   +11 +13
Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business 33% 24% 25% 18%   +9 +13
Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class 30% 30% 24% 15%   +3
Handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most. 28% 30% 25% 17%   -2 -4
Representing the interests of you and people like you 27% 35% 23% 15%   -8 -6
Standing up for the middle class in Australia 26% 34% 24% 15%   -8 -7
Handling the economy in a way that tries to take the interests of working families into consideration as much as it takes the interests of the large corporate and financial groups 24% 33% 25% 17%   -9 -7
Representing the interests of Australian working families 20% 42% 23% 14%   -22 -21
Being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests 18% 43% 24% 14%   -25 -22

Labor was more likely to be selected as the party best at all of the items, except for ‘Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests’ (48% Liberal, 15% Labor), ‘Handling the economy overall’ (35% Liberal, 24% Labor), ‘Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business’ (33% Liberal, 24% Labor) and ‘Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class’ (30% Liberal, 30% Labor).

Since this question was asked in March, the main shifts have been for ‘Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business’ (4% to Labor) and “Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (4% to Labor).

Approval of Government Ministers

Dec 6, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the following people are doing as Government Ministers?

  Total approve Total dis-approve   Strongly approve Approve Dis-approve Strongly dis-approve Don’t know   Net score Net LNP voters
Julie Bishop – Foreign Affairs 52% 23% 18% 34% 12% 11% 25% +29 +66
Christopher Pyne – Defence Industry 35% 34% 7% 28% 16% 18% 32% +1 +55
Barnaby Joyce – Deputy Prime Minister 34% 33% 7% 27% 18% 15% 33% +1 +48
Greg Hunt – Industry, Innovation and Science 28% 27% 5% 23% 14% 13% 46% +1 +43
Peter Dutton – Immigration and Border Protection 33% 35%   11% 21% 15% 20% 32% -2 +47
Scott Morrison – Treasurer 33% 36% 6% 27% 18% 18% 31% -3 +50
George Brandis – Attorney General 26% 34% 4% 22% 14% 20% 40% -8 +32

 Of the Government Ministers listed, Julie Bishop has the best approval rating by a considerable margin (52% approve/23% disapprove). Opinions are almost evenly divided on all other ministers except George Brandis with 26% approve/34% disapprove.

Among Liberal/National voters, approval ranges from 75% for Julie Bishop to 49% for George Brandis.

Voluntary euthanasia

Dec 6, 2016

Q. When a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain, do you think doctors should or should not be allowed by law to assist the patient to commit suicide if the patient requests it?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2010 Nov 2013 Oct 2014 May 2015 Sep 2016
Should be allowed 69%   75% 66% 86% 68%   69% 68% 66% 72% 68%
Should not be allowed 14%   12% 18% 5% 16%   14% 19% 14% 12% 13%
Don’t know 18%   13% 16% 9% 16%   17% 13% 20% 16% 19%

69% of respondents think that that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient commit suicide – similar to results over the last 6 years.  14% think it should not be allowed.

86% of Green voters, 75% of Labor and 66% of Liberal/National voters agreed that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient to commit suicide.

70% of women, 68% of men and 74% of those aged 45-64 support voluntary euthanasia.

Gonski education funding

Dec 6, 2016

Q. The Federal Government is proposing to end Gonski needs-based funding after 2017 and introduce a new funding system which would leave schools $3.8 billion worse off in 2018 and 2019 alone.  Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 18%   11% 33% 11% 15%
Total disapprove 54%   73% 35% 70% 60%
Strongly approve 7%   6% 11% 3% 6%
Approve 11%   5% 22% 8% 9%
Disapprove 23%   25% 23% 28% 23%
Strongly disapprove 31%   48% 12% 42% 37%
Don’t know 28%   16% 33% 20% 26%

54% disapprove of replacing the Gonski need-based funding after 2017 and 18% approve. Liberal/National voters were split (33% approve/35% disapprove) while 73% of Labor voters and 70% of Greens voters disapprove.

59% of women and 50% of men disapprove. 59% of those aged 45-64 disapprove.

Climate change

Dec 6, 2016

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2009 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Dec 2014 Nov 2015 Aug 2016
Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 54%   70% 39% 82% 47%   53% 45% 50% 48% 52% 57% 56% 57%
We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 27%   18% 40% 7% 40%   34% 36% 39% 39% 36% 29% 32% 26%
Don’t know 18%   12% 20% 12% 13%   13% 19% 12% 13% 12% 14% 12% 17%

54% (down 3% since August) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 27% (up 1%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 60%/19% and those aged 55+ split 47%/42%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 61%/22%.

Doing enough to address climate change

Dec 6, 2016

Q. As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Climate change is happening   Aug 2015 Mar 2016 Aug 2016
Doing enough 22%   16% 35% 4% 26%   15%   24% 21% 22%
Not doing enough 49%   62% 30% 88% 45%   76%   53% 57% 52%
Doing too much 11%   8% 16% 2% 17%   2%   7% 8% 8%
Don’t know 18%   14% 19% 6% 12%   7%   16% 13% 18%

49% (down 3% since August) think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change and 22% (no change) think Australia is doing enough.

Those most likely to think Australia is not doing enough were aged 18-34 (54%) and university educated (54%).

Of those who believe climate change is happening, 76% think Australia is not doing enough.

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