Federal voting intention

Sep 19, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 12/9/17 2 weeks ago 5/9/17 4 weeks ago 22/8/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 34%   33% 33% 34%    
National 3%   3% 4% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 38%   36% 36% 37%   42.0%
Labor 36%   37% 37% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   2% 2% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   9% 8% 8%    
Other/Independent 5%   6% 6% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   46% 47% 47%   50.4%
Labor 52%   54% 53% 53%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,808. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Same-sex marriage

Sep 19, 2017

Q. Do you support changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Yes 55%   65% 47% 83% 44%
No 34%   28% 42% 13% 45%
Don’t know 11%   7% 12% 4% 12%

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Will

def-initely vote

Will prob-ably vote Will not vote Already voted   5 Sep
Yes 55%   47% 62% 61% 54% 51%   63% 50% 18% 59%   59%
No 34%   41% 27% 27% 33% 41%   33% 31% 56% 37%   31%
Don’t know 11%   11% 11% 12% 13% 8%   4% 19% 25% 5%   11%

 

59% (down 4% from 2 weeks ago) support changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry and 34% (up 3%) are opposed.

Those most in favour of changing the marriage laws are Labor voters (65%), Greens voters (83%), women (62%) and those aged 18-34 (61%).

Those who would definitely vote in the national survey are more likely to support same-sex marriage (63%). 59% of hose who have already voted support same-sex marriage and 37% oppose.

Likelihood of voting

Sep 19, 2017

Q. How likely are you to vote in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Will definitely vote 62%   64% 66% 68% 66%
Will probably vote 12%   12% 12% 10% 12%
Will probably not vote 2%   2% 3% 1%
Will definitely not vote 3%   3% 2% 5% 6%
Not sure 8%   7% 6% 2% 6%
I have already voted 9%   9% 10% 9% 8%
I am not enrolled to vote at my current address 5%   2% 1% 4% 2%

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Support same sex marriage Don’t support same sex marriage 5 Sep
Will definitely vote 62%   55% 64% 56% 61% 69%   71% 60% 62%
Will probably vote 12%   14% 10% 18% 11% 6%   11% 11% 16%
Will probably not vote 2%   2% 2% 3% 2% 1%   1% 3% 4%
Will definitely not vote 3%   4% 3% 4% 5% 1%   1% 6% 3%
Not sure 8%   9% 7% 9% 9% 5%   3% 6% 10%
I have already voted 9%   8% 9% 4% 7% 15%   9% 9%
I am not enrolled to vote at my current address 5%   4% 5% 6% 5% 3%   4% 5% 4%

 

62% (no change from 2 weeks ago) say they will definitely vote in the same-sex marriage national vote and 12% (down 4%) will probably vote. However, 9% say they have already voted.

71% of those in favour of same-sex marriage will definitely vote compared to 60% of those opposed.

Climate change

Sep 19, 2017

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2009 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Dec 2014 Nov 2015 Aug 2016 Dec 2016 Feb 2017
Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 64% 74% 57% 86% 54% 53% 45% 50% 48% 52% 57% 56% 57% 54% 60%
We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 24% 17% 34% 9% 37% 34% 36% 39% 39% 36% 29% 32% 26% 27% 25%
Don’t know 12% 9% 10% 6% 8% 13% 19% 12% 13% 12% 14% 12% 17% 18% 14%

60% (up 4% since February) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 24% (down 1%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate.

 

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 68%/18% and those aged 55+ split 54%/36%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 72%/18%.

Doing enough to address climate change

Sep 19, 2017

Q. As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Climate change is happen-ing   Aug 2015 Mar 2016 Aug 2016 Dec 2016
Doing enough 20%   17% 30% 4% 21%   15%   24% 21% 22% 22%
Not doing enough 56%   69% 42% 89% 48%   75%   53% 57% 52% 49%
Doing too much 8%   2% 13% 1% 18%   2%   7% 8% 8% 11%
Don’t know 16%   12% 15% 6% 14%   8%   16% 13% 18% 18%

 

56% (up 7% since December) think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change and 20% (down 2%) think Australia is doing enough.

 

Those most likely to think Australia is not doing enough were aged 18-34 (60%) and university educated (62%).

 

Of those who believe climate change is happening, 75% think Australia is not doing enough.

Cost of living concerns

Sep 19, 2017

Q. Which three of the following costs of living are you most concerned about –

  Total   First Second Third   Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Electricity and gas 46%   24% 15% 7%   42% 52% 43%
Housing – mortgage or rent 34%   18% 10% 6%   47% 39% 12%
Medical, dental 25%   5% 8% 12%   18% 28% 28%
Fresh food – fruit, vegetables, meat 21%   6% 7% 8%   25% 19% 20%
Petrol 15%   5% 4% 6%   19% 13% 14%
Insurance 14%   2% 6% 6%   13% 15% 12%
Education 10%   2% 3% 5%   12% 14% 3%
Water 8%   1% 3% 4%   9% 8% 9%
Packaged food 5%   2% 1% 2%   10% 3% 2%
Clothing 1%   <1% <1% 1%   2% 1%
All of them – no one cost of living in particular 34%           29% 31% 44%
None of them 2%           1% 1% 4%

 

 

  Total   Financially comfortable Managing Under financial pressure
Electricity and gas 46%   49% 50% 38%
Housing – mortgage or rent 34%   31% 35% 37%
Medical, dental 25%   31% 27% 13%
Fresh food – fruit, vegetables, meat 21%   24% 23% 14%
Petrol 15%   20% 14% 10%
Insurance 14%   15% 14% 11%
Education 10%   11% 11% 5%
Water 8%   8% 9% 11%
Packaged food 5%   8% 4% 3%
Clothing 1%   0% 1% 1%
All of them – no one cost of living in particular 34%   28% 34% 46%
None of them 2%   3% 0% 1%

 

The costs most respondents were concerned about were electricity and gas (46%), housing (34%), medical/dental (25%) and fresh food (21%).

 

Those aged 18-34 were most concerned about costs of housing (47%), electricity and gas (42%) and fresh food (25%).

Those aged 35-54 were most concerned about costs of electricity and gas (52%), housing (39%) and medical/dental (28%).

Those aged 55+ were most concerned about costs of electricity and gas (52%) and medical/dental (28%).

However, 44% of those aged 55% said they were concerned about all of them compared to 29% of those aged 18-34.

Financial situation

Sep 19, 2017

Q. Which of the following statements best describes your financial situation?

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
I am financially comfortable 33%   36% 29% 33% 34% 30%
I can manage household bills but struggle to afford anything extra 43%   41% 46% 37% 46% 48%
I feel under financial pressure 20%   18% 21% 23% 17% 20%
Don’t know 4%   5% 4% 7% 3% 2%

 

33% said they were financially comfortable, 43% were managing and 20% said they were under financial pressure.

 

29% of those on incomes less than $600 pw said they were under financial pressure compared to 15% of those earning $2,000+ pw.

17% of those on incomes less than $600 pw said they were financially comfortable compared to 46% of those earning $2,000+ pw.

Wage increase

Sep 19, 2017

Q. In the last 12 months, have you had a wage increase in your current job? (excluding those who don’t work)

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Work full time Work part time
Yes, had a wage increase 36%   35% 37% 47% 32% 19%   43% 34%
No, have not had a wage increase 52%   54% 49% 44% 59% 59%   53% 60%
Haven’t been in current job for 12 months 12%   11% 13% 9% 10% 22%   4% 6%

 

 

36% of workers say they have had a wage increase in the last 12 months and 52% say they have not had a wage increase. 43% of fulltime workers and 34% of part-time workers said they had received a pay increase in the last 12 months.

46% of workers earing $2,000+ pw said they had had a wage increase compared to 25% of those earning less than $1,000 pw.

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