Federal voting intention

Nov 20, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 14/11/17 2 weeks ago 7/11/17 4 weeks ago 24/10/17   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 32%   33% 34% 34%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 35%   36% 37% 37%   42.0%
Labor 38%   38% 37% 36%   34.7%
Greens 9%   9% 10% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 2% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   8% 8% 8%    
Other/Independent 7%   7% 6% 7%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 46%   46% 47% 48%   50.4%
Labor 54%   54% 53% 52%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,803. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Protections for religious freedoms

Nov 20, 2017

Q. If the Parliament passes legislation to allow same-sex marriage, do you think that the legislation needs to include more protections for religious freedoms or do you think current laws already provide enough protections for religious freedoms?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Needs to include more protection for religious freedoms 37%   31% 48% 17% 42%
Current laws provide enough protections for religious freedoms 42%   50% 39% 57% 44%
Don’t know 21%   19% 13% 25% 14%

 

 

37% think that same-sex marriage legislation needs to include more protections for religious freedoms and 42% think current laws provide enough protection.

Those most likely to think that same-sex marriage legislation should include more protections were Liberal/National voters (48%) and aged 65+ (55%).

Those most likely to think that current laws provide enough protection were Labor voters (50%), Greens voters (57%) and university educated (50%).

 

Same-sex marriage legislation

Nov 20, 2017

Q. Would you support or oppose the same-sex marriage legislation including each of the following –

  Total support Total oppose   Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
Allow ministers of religion and celebrants to refuse to officiate same-sex weddings if they believe in the traditional definition of marriage 63% 27%   32% 31% 13% 14% 10%
Allow service providers to refuse to supply services to same-sex weddings (e.g. venue hire, wedding cakes) 43% 48%   23% 20% 22% 26% 9%
Allow people who believe they have been victimised on the basis of their marriage beliefs be able to seek court orders, injunctions and damages for loss suffered 41% 41%   17% 24% 20% 21% 19%
Allow parents to have their children removed from classes which don’t reflect their views on marriage 42% 44%   22% 20% 22% 22% 15%

 

A solid majority (63%) support allowing ministers of religion and celebrants to refuse to officiate same-sex weddings.

However, they were fairly evenly split on the other three issues.

Men were somewhat more likely to support these measures than women. On allowing service providers to refuse to supply services, men were 49% support/42% oppose while women were 37% support/53% oppose.

 

 

Total support Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Allow ministers of religion and celebrants to refuse to officiate same-sex weddings if they believe in the traditional definition of marriage 63%   56% 74% 53% 75%
Allow service providers to refuse to supply services to same-sex weddings (e.g. venue hire, wedding cakes) 43%   36% 54% 21% 50%
Allow people who believe they have been victimised on the basis of their marriage beliefs be able to seek court orders, injunctions and damages for loss suffered 41%   46% 40% 53% 33%
Allow parents to have their children removed from classes which don’t reflect their views on marriage 42%   33% 52% 24% 55%

 

Early election

Nov 20, 2017

Q. Do you think the Coalition Government should run its full term until 2019 when the next Federal election is due or do you think they should call an early election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Should run full term 47% 34% 75% 26% 45%
Should call an early election 32% 45% 15% 55% 38%
Don’t know 22% 21% 10% 19% 16%

 

37% think the Government should call an early election and 47% think the Government should run its full term.

Those most likely to support an early election were Labor voters (45%) and Greens voters (55%).

Expect to win next election

Nov 20, 2017

Q. Which party do you expect will win the next Federal election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Liberal National Coalition 20%   5% 53% 7% 11%
Labor Party 36%   75% 14% 40% 19%
Neither – there will be a hung Parliament 18%   7% 15% 21% 45%
Don’t know 26%   13% 18% 32% 26%

 

36% expect the Labor Party will win the next election, 20% think the LNP coalition will win and 18% think there will be a hung Parliament.

75% of Labor voters think Labor will win, compared to 53% of Liberal/National voters who think the Coalition will win.

Australian society

Nov 20, 2017

Q. Thinking about our current political and economic system – that is, the structures that set the rules for the way Australian society operates – which of the following best describes your view?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2017
The system needs to be fundamentally changed 32%   33% 26% 40% 42%   40%
The system is fundamentally sound but needs to be refined 44%   47% 53% 41% 39%   44%
The system works well as it is and should not be changed in any substantial way 10%   7% 15% 6% 10%   6%
Don’t know 14%   13% 7% 13% 8%   11%

 

44% think Australia’s political and economic system is fundamentally sound but needs to be refined and 32% think the system needs to be fundamentally changed. Only 10% think it should not be changed in any way.

Those thinking it needs fundamental change has dropped 8 points from 40% since January.

Those most likely to think it needs fundamental change were “other” voters (42%).

Those most likely to think the system just needs to be refined were LNP voters (53%) and aged 65+ (57%).

Trust in Federal Government

Nov 20, 2017

Q. How much trust do you have in the Federal Government to do what is right for Australia?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
A lot of trust 8%   6% 17% 2% 2%
Some trust 34%   34% 49% 20% 22%
Not much trust 32%   37% 25% 45% 34%
No trust at all 21%   18% 8% 28% 42%
Don’t know 5%   5% 1% 5%

 

42% have a lot or some trust in the Government to do what is right for Australia and 53% have not much or no trust.

Those least likely to trust the Government were Greens voters (73% not much/no trust) and other voters (76%).

Those most likely to trust the Government were LNP voters (66% trust) and university educated (58%).

Satisfaction with democracy in Australia

Nov 20, 2017

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in Australia?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total satisfied 35%   34% 53% 18% 22%
Total dissatisfied 32%   32% 19% 43% 54%
Very satisfied 6%   5% 11% 1% <1%
Satisfied 29%   29% 42% 17% 22%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 28%   31% 28% 32% 23%
Dissatisfied 21%   24% 15% 29% 27%
Very dissatisfied 11%   8% 4% 14% 27%
Don’t know 5%   4% 1% 7% 1%

 

35% are satisfied with the way democracy is working in Australia and 32% are dissatisfied.

Those most likely to be satisfied were LNP voters (53%), men (40%) and university educated (51%).

Those most likely to be dissatisfied were Greens voters (43%) and other voters (54%).

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