Federal politics – voting intention

May 5, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q.If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,774 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

7/4/15

2 weeks ago 21/4/15 Last week

28/4/15

This week 5/5/15
Liberal   36% 37% 36% 37%
National   4% 3% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 45.6% 40% 41% 40% 40%
Labor 33.4% 39% 39% 39% 39%
Greens 8.6% 10% 11% 10% 10%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 2% 1% 2% 1%
Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

 

2 Party Preferred Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

7/4/15

2 weeks ago 21/4/15 Last week

28/4/15

This week 5/5/15
Liberal National 53.5% 47% 48% 47% 47%
Labor 46.5% 53% 52% 53% 53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Concern about household expenses

May 5, 2015

Q. How concerned or unconcerned are you about the current costs of each specific expense for your household?

  Total concern-ed Total not concern-ed   Very concern-ed Not at all concern-ed Don’t know House-hold does not have this expense   Total concern-ed July 2014 Very concern-ed July 2014
Electricity 72% 25% 34% 7% 2% 1% 80% 49%
Health or medical (includes health insurance) 67% 24% 31% 6% 3% 5% 76% 42%
Food and groceries 65% 33% 25% 8% 2% * 70% 29%
Transport (petrol, car, public transport) 60% 36% 22% 8% 2% 1% 74% 35%
Water 52% 40% 18% 10% 3% 6% 63% 29%
Mortgage or rent 48% 32% 21% 12% 3% 17% 53% 26%
Home insurance 48% 37% 18% 8% 4% 10% 61% 27%
Gas 43% 32% 16% 9% 2% 22% 54% 27%
Internet 42% 54% 12% 14% 2% 1% 47% 19%
Telephone 39% 56% 12% 16% 3% 2% 51% 20%
Education 38% 35% 17% 12% 2% 25% 51% 26%

The household expenses of most concern were electricity (72% concerned), health or medical (67%), food and groceries (65%) and transport (60%).

Since this question was asked in July last year, levels of concern about household expenses has dropped for all items. However, there has been little change in the ranking of issues of concern.

Subsidies for nannies

May 5, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Governments plan to subsidise nannies for families who cannot access mainstream childcare services.

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Total approve 43% 42% 52% 37% 37% 39% 47% 47% 46% 35%
Total disapprove 31% 34% 29% 33% 38% 37% 25% 24% 28% 44%
Strongly approve 7% 8% 8% 11% 4% 7% 8% 10% 8% 4%
Approve 36% 34% 44% 26% 33% 32% 39% 37% 38% 31%
Disapprove 18% 18% 19% 16% 21% 21% 15% 14% 16% 26%
Strongly disapprove 13% 16% 10% 17% 17% 16% 10% 10% 12% 18%
Don’t know 26% 23% 20% 30% 24% 24% 28% 30% 26% 21%

43% approve of respondents the Federal Governments plan to subsidise nannies for families who cannot access mainstream childcare services and 31% disapprove.

Approval was highest for Liberal/National voters (52%), women (47%) and aged 18-34 (47%). Those aged 55+ were the only group more likely to disapprove (35% approve/44% disapprove).

Importance of international relationships

May 5, 2015

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

  Very import-ant Quite import-ant Not very import-ant Don’t know   Very impor-tant

Mar 11

Very import-ant

Nov 13

Very import-ant

Oct 14

Very import-ant

Feb 15

Change
United States 44% 41% 8% 8% 60% 59% 53% 44%
China 39% 44% 6% 10% 48% 54% 44% 41% -2
United Kingdom 39% 43% 9% 10% 56% 48% 48% 38% +1
Japan 31% 52% 6% 11% 39% 35% 31% 30% +1
Canada 24% 45% 18% 13% na na 26% 22% +2
India 22% 47% 17% 14% 26% 26% 22% 20% +2
Indonesia 21% 40% 27% 12% 31% 40% 32% 22% -1
Germany 20% 47% 19% 14% 23% 20% 22% 18% +2
Saudi Arabia 14% 40% 30% 16% na na 17% 12% +2
Russia 13% 38% 33% 16% na na 16% 11% +2

44% of respondents think it is very important to have a close relationship with the United States and 39% think it is very important to have a close relationship with China and the United Kingdom. Relations with Russia (13%) and Saudi Arabia (14%) were thought to be the least important.

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 51% of Liberal/National voters, 48% of Labor voters and 29% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked in February, there has been little change in importance of relations for all countries.

Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations

May 5, 2015

Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Jun 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015
Total a lot/some 35% 11% 77% 5% 23% 41% 35% 40% 33%
Total little/no trust 58% 77% 17% 94% 74% 53% 59% 53% 62%
A lot of trust 13% 1% 32% 8% 20% 17% 17% 12%
Some trust 22% 10% 45% 5% 17% 21% 18% 23% 21%
A little trust 20% 25% 13% 23% 31% 18% 16% 18% 22%
No trust 38% 62% 4% 71% 43% 35% 43% 35% 40%
Don’t know 7% 2% 6% 2% 2% 7% 5% 6% 5% 

Overall, 33% (up 2% since February) have a lot or some trust in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations and 58% (down 4%) have a little or no trust. Only 13% (up 1%) have “a lot of trust” and 38% (down 2%) have no trust.

Labor (62%) and Greens (71%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. 32% Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”- up 4% since February.

Relations with Indonesia

May 5, 2015

Q. How would you rate the performance of Tony Abbott and the Coalition Government in handling relations with Indonesia?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 May 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015
Total good 26% 8% 58% 3% 14% 29% 25% 32% 24%
Total poor 42% 65% 12% 76% 53% 42% 43% 39% 42%
Very good 10% 1% 23% 1% 7% 11% 8% 12% 8%
Good 16% 7% 35% 2% 7% 18% 17% 20% 16%
Neither good nor poor 24% 23% 26% 14% 27% 21% 19% 22% 27%
Poor 16% 24% 7% 23% 19% 16% 19% 18% 16%
Very poor 26% 41% 5% 53% 34% 26% 24% 21% 26%
Don’t know 7% 4% 5% 6% 5% 8% 13% 8% 7%

26% (down 2% since February) of respondents rate Tony Abbott and the Coalition Government handling of relations with Indonesia as good. 42% (no change) rate them as poor.

58% of Liberal/National voters rate the Government’s performance as “good” – compared to 47% in February.

 

Action against Indonesia

May 5, 2015

Q.Because Indonesia rejected Australia’s calls for clemency for the Bali nine drug smugglers Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, would you approve or disapprove of Australia responding by taking some form of action – such as suspending co-operation with Indonesia in certain areas?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Total approve 40% 44% 43% 38% 41% 41% 39% 37% 43% 42%
Total disapprove 42% 41% 42% 44% 44% 43% 41% 43% 38% 48%
Strongly approve 17% 20% 17% 15% 22% 19% 15% 14% 19% 19%
Approve 23% 24% 26% 23% 19% 22% 24% 23% 24% 23%
Disapprove 24% 22% 27% 26% 19% 22% 26% 26% 21% 27%
Strongly disapprove 18% 19% 15% 18% 25% 21% 15% 17% 17% 21%
Don’t know 17% 14% 14% 19% 14% 16% 19% 20% 19% 10%

40% approve of taking some form of action against Indonesia over the executions of the Bali drug smugglers and 42% disapprove.

Most voter and demographic groups were relatively evenly split on this question. Those aged 55+ were a little more likely to disapprove.

Retirement income

May 5, 2015

Q. Do you believe that you will have adequate income from your superannuation and investments to live a comfortable lifestyle when you choose to stop working? (based on those who work full-time or part-time)

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Income less than $1,000 pw Income $1,000-1,600 pw Income $1,600+ pw
Yes – I feel confident 7% 8% 5% 8% 5% 10% 4% 6% 10%
Yes – I think so 23% 23% 22% 21% 23% 23% 15% 26% 30%
Unsure 32% 37% 27% 29% 34% 24% 34% 24% 30%
No – I have no idea what I need 13% 12% 14% 20% 11% 7% 12% 17% 10%
No – it worries me 26% 20% 32% 21% 27% 35% 35% 28% 19%

Only 30% of workers believe they will have adequate income from superannuation and investments to live a comfortable lifestyle when they retire.

39% think they won’t have enough and 32% are unsure. Those most likely to think they won’t have enough were aged 55+ (42%) and those on incomes less than $1,000 pw (47%).

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