Federal voting intention

Jul 1, 2016

Q. If yet to vote – To which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Federal election being held this Saturday? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

If already voted – Which party did you give your first preference to?

  Total Have voted Have not voted   Last week

28/6/16

2 weeks ago

21/6/16

4 weeks ago

7/6/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal/LNP 39.5% 41% 39%   37% 37% 37%    
National 3% 5% 2%   3% 3% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 42.5% 45% 41%   39% 40% 41%   45.6%
Labor 34.5% 33% 35%   37% 37% 36%   33.4%
Greens 11.5% 10% 12%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 1.5% 2% 1%   4% 4% 4%  
Other/Independent 10.5% 10% 11%   10% 9% 10%   12.4%
2 party preferred                  
Liberal National 50.5% 54% 49%   49% 49% 50%   53.5%
Labor 49.5% 46% 51%   51% 51% 50%   46.5%

NB: Respondents who selected ‘don’t know’ or who were not enrolled to vote are not included in the results. Total percentages have been rounded to the nearest half per cent. The two-party preferred estimate has been calculated by distributing the votes of other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election. Nick Xenophon Team was only included for SA respondents. 22% of enrolled respondents said they had already voted.

Second preference vote

Jul 1, 2016

Q. If yet to vote – Which party would you give your next preference to – out of the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.

If already voted – Which party did you give your next preference to – out of the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.

  Total   Vote Greens Vote other   Vote Greens (excluding don’t know) Vote other (excluding don’t know)   Vote Greens

2013 election

Vote other

2013 election

Liberal Party 24% 16% 31% 20% 44% 17% 55%
Labor Party 52% 66% 39% 80% 56% 83% 45%
Don’t know 24% 18% 30%

24% of minor parties and independent voters say they will preference the Liberals and 52% say they will preference Labor. 24% don’t know which party they will preference.

Excluding the “don’t knows”, Labor receives 80% of preferences of Greens voters and 56% of the preferences of other voters.

Best campaign

Jul 1, 2016

Q. Which leader and party do you think has performed best during the Federal election campaign?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Last week
Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party 38%   6% 79% 12% 32%   30%
Bill Shorten and the Labor Party 29%   72% 4% 17% 25%   28%
Richard di Natale and the Greens. 6%   1% 1% 46% 6%   8%
Don’t know 27%   22% 15% 25% 37%   34%

38% think that Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party performed best during the election campaign and 29% think Bill Shorten and the Labor Party preformed best.

Opinions mainly reflected party preferences. 79% of Liberal/National voters thought Malcolm Turnbull performed best while 72% of Labor voters thought Bill Shorten performed best.

Party expect to win election

Jul 1, 2016

Q. Which party do you expect will win the Federal election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Last week
Liberal National Coalition 48%   19% 84% 35% 38%   39%
Labor Party 21%   52% 3% 16% 11%   24%
Neither – there will be a hung Parliament 15%   13% 5% 38% 35%   16%
Don’t know 17%   16% 8% 12% 16%   21%

48% think that the Coalition will win the election, 21% think the Labor Party will win and 15% think there will be a hung Parliament.

84% of Liberal National voters think the Coalition will win and 52% of Labor voters think the Labor Party will win.

38% of Greens voters and 35% of other voters think there will be a hung Parliament.

There has been a significant shift to the Coalition winning over the last week.

Brexit good or bad for Australia

Jul 1, 2016

Q. Do you think the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union will be good or bad for the Australian economy or will it make no difference?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Good for Australian economy 14%   13% 17% 13% 16%
Bad for Australian economy 26%   29% 22% 46% 19%
Will make no difference 34%   31% 39% 23% 48%
Don’t know 25%   27% 21% 18% 17%

26% think that the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union

Impact of Brexit on vote

Jul 1, 2016

Q. Does the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union make you more likely to vote Liberal or more likely to vote Labor in the Federal election – or does it make no difference to your vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
More likely to vote Liberal 15%   2% 35% 4% 6%
More likely to vote Labor 11%   25% 1% 21% 8%
Makes no difference 64%   66% 58% 70% 83%
Don’t know 9%   6% 6% 5% 3%

15% say the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union has made them more likely to vote Liberal and 11% say it has made them more likely to vote Labor. 64% say it makes no difference.

Federal voting intention

Jun 28, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

21/6/16

2 weeks ago

14/6/16

4 weeks ago

31/5/16

  Election  7 Sep 13
Liberal 37% 37% 37% 38%
National 3% 3% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 39%   40% 41% 41%   45.6%
Labor 37%   37% 37% 35%   33.4%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 9% 8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4% 4% 4% 4%
Other/Independent 10% 9% 9% 10% 12.4%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 49% 49% 49% 51% 53.5%
Labor 51% 51% 51% 49% 46.5%

Sample = 1,773. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Second preference vote

Jun 28, 2016

Q. Which party would you give your next preference to – out of the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.

  Total   Vote Greens Vote other   Vote Greens (excluding don’t know) Vote other (excluding don’t know)   Vote Greens

2013 election

Vote other

2013 election

Liberal Party 19% 12% 33% 14% 52% 17% 55%
Labor Party 39% 73% 30% 86% 48% 83% 45%
Don’t know 22% 15% 37%

19% of minor parties and independent voters say they will preference the Liberals and 39% say they will preference Labor. 22% don’t know which party they will preference.

Excluding the “don’t knows”, Labor receives 86% of preferences of Greens voters and 48% of the preferences of other voters – a very similar result to the 2013 election.

 

 

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