Federal voting intention

May 3, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Total Last week

26/4/16

2 weeks ago

19/4/16

4 weeks ago

5/4/16

Election  7 Sep 13
Liberal 37% 36% 38% 39%
National 3% 4% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 40% 40% 42% 42% 45.6%
Labor 38% 39% 36% 37% 33.4%
Greens 10% 10% 11% 10% 8.6%
Palmer United Party 1% 1% 1% 1% 5.5%
Other/Independent 10% 11% 10% 10% 6.9%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 48% 48% 50% 50% 53.5%
Labor 52% 52% 50% 50% 46.5%

NB.  Sample = 1,753. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Climate change policy

May 3, 2016

Q. The Labor Party recently announced their policy to tackle climate change which includes a target of reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 (compared to the Coalition Government’s target of 26-28%) and introducing an emissions trading scheme. Do you approve or disapprove of this policy?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 57% 76% 36% 88% 59%
Total disapprove 21% 6% 44% 2% 23%
Strongly approve 22% 38% 8% 40% 16%
Approve 35% 38% 28% 48% 43%
Disapprove 10% 4% 20% 1% 10%
Strongly disapprove 11% 2% 24% 1% 13%
Don’t know 22% 19% 20% 10% 19%

57% approve of the Labor Party’s carbon emissions policy and 21% disapprove.

Those more likely to approve were Labor voters (76%), Greens voters (88%) and aged 18-34 (70%).

Those more likely to disapprove were Liberal/National voters (44%) and aged 55+ (39%).

Submarines

May 3, 2016

Q. This week the Government announced that the $50 billion contract for building Australia’s future submarines has been awarded to a French company with most of the construction to be done in South Australia. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 52% 49% 68% 41% 48%
Total disapprove 27% 29% 20% 38% 34%
Strongly approve 13% 11% 20% 3% 15%
Approve 39% 38% 48% 38% 33%
Disapprove 17% 18% 13% 21% 21%
Strongly disapprove 10% 11% 7% 17% 13%
Don’t know 21% 22% 12% 21% 17%

52% approve of the Government’s submarines announcement and 27% disapprove.

Those more likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (68%), and aged 65+ (70%).

Those more likely to disapprove were Greens voters (38%).

Approval of negative gearing

May 3, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of property investors receiving tax deductions if the cost of buying and maintaining their investment properties is more than the revenue they receive from them (called negative gearing)?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other March 2016
Total approve 43% 37% 59% 28% 33% 41%
Total disapprove 36% 42% 28% 50% 49% 37%
Strongly approve 14% 12% 21% 6% 13% 13%
Approve 29% 25% 38% 22% 20% 28%
Disapprove 22% 24% 19% 27% 34% 23%
Strongly disapprove 14% 18% 9% 23% 15% 14%
Don’t know 21% 20% 12% 22% 17% 22%

43% approve of negative gearing and 36% disapprove. This is much the same result as when this question was asked in March.

Those most likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (59%) and those earning more than $2,000 per week (59%).

42% of Labor voters, 50% of Greens voters and 45% of those earing $600-1,000 per week disapproved.

Approval of changes to negative gearing

May 3, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of changing negative gearing so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for investments in newly built homes? 

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Feb 2016 March 2016
Total approve 36% 42% 36% 40% 33% 37% 35%
Total disapprove 38% 30% 52% 31% 41% 32% 39%
Strongly approve 11% 16% 8% 11% 13% 19% 10%
Approve 25% 26% 28% 29% 20% 18% 25%
Disapprove 21% 19% 25% 20% 25% 18% 25%
Strongly disapprove 17% 11% 27% 11% 16% 14% 14%
Don’t know 26% 28% 12% 29% 26% 31% 26%

36% approve of changing negative gearing so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for investments in newly built homes and 38% disapprove. This is a similar result to when this question was asked in March.

Those most likely to approve were Labor voters (42%) and men (46%).

Impact on house prices

May 3, 2016

Q. What do you think would be the impact on house prices of limiting negative gearing?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
House prices would fall 24% 22% 34% 18% 23%
House prices would continue to rise but at a slower rate 31% 33% 31% 37% 32%
House prices would continue to rise at the same rate 13% 11% 14% 13% 18%
Don’t know 31% 34% 21% 32% 27%

31% think that limiting negative gearing would mean house prices would continue to rise but at a slower rate. 24% think house prices would fall. Only 13% think it would have no impact on house prices.

34% of Liberal/National voters think house process would fall compared to 22% of Labor voters and 18% of Greens voters.

Attributes of Malcolm Turnbull

May 3, 2016

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull?

Total Mar 2016 Difference
Intelligent 77% 79% -2
Hard-working 65% 68% -3
A capable leader 59% 64% -5
Out of touch with ordinary people 56% 53% +3
Understands the problems facing Australia 52% 53% -1
Good in a crisis 49% 52% -3
Arrogant 46% 45% +1
Superficial 46% 43% +3
Narrow-minded 41% 33% +8
Visionary 41% 44% -3
Trustworthy 40% 44% -4
More honest than most politicians 39% 41% -2
Erratic 34% 27% +7
Intolerant 34% 26% +8
Aggressive 28% 24% +4

Malcolm Turnbull’s key attributes were intelligent (77%), hard working (65%), a capable leader (59%) and out of touch with ordinary people (56%).

Since March, the main changes have been for narrow-minded (up 8%), intolerant (up 8%), erratic (up 7%) and a capable leader (down 5%).

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

May 3, 2016

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

Total Mar 2016 Change
Hard working 62% 60% +2
Intelligent 60% 56% +4
Understands the problems facing Australia 50% 47% +3
Out of touch with ordinary people 44% 45% -1
Superficial 43% 45% -2
A capable leader 41% 34% +7
Narrow-minded 40% 41% -1
Arrogant 38% 41% -3
Erratic 37% 40% -3
Good in a crisis 34% 32% +2
Trustworthy 33% 31% +2
Aggressive 33% 34% -1
Intolerant 31% 32% -1
Visionary 29% 27% +2
More honest than most politicians 26% 25% +1

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (62%), intelligent (60%) and understands the problems facing Australia (50%).

Since March there has been a 7% increase in “a capable leader”.

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