Federal voting intention

May 24, 2016

Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

17/5/16

2 weeks ago

10/5/16

4 weeks ago

26/4/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 38%   39% 38% 36%    
National 3%   3% 4% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 41%   42% 42% 40%   45.6%
Labor 37%   38% 38% 39%   33.4%
Greens 9%   9% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% na na  
Palmer United Party na   na 1% 1%   5.5%
Other/Independent 9%   8% 9% 11%   6.9%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   49% 49% 48%   53.5%
Labor 51%   51% 51% 52%   46.5%

NB. Sample = 1,794. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Leader attributes – Malcolm Turnbull

May 24, 2016

Q: Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull?

  Total   May 3 2016   Difference
Intelligent 76% 77% -1
Out of touch with ordinary people 63% 56% +7
Hard-working 60% 65% -5
A capable leader 55% 59% -4
Arrogant 51% 46% +5
Good in a crisis 48% 49% -1
Superficial 48% 46% +2
Understands the problems facing Australia 47% 52% -5
Narrow-minded 41% 41%
Visionary 40% 41% -1
Trustworthy 37% 40% -3
More honest than most politicians 36% 39% -3
Erratic 34% 34%
Intolerant 34% 34%
Aggressive 31% 28% +3

Malcolm Turnbull’s key attributes were intelligent (76%), out of touch with ordinary people (63%), hard working (60%) and a capable leader (55%).

Over the last 3 weeks, the main changes have been for out of touch with ordinary people (up 7%), hard-working (down 5%), arrogant (up 5%) and understands the problems facing Australia (down 5%).

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

May 24, 2016

Q: Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

  Total   May 3 2016   Change
Hard working 60%   62%   -2
Intelligent 60%   60%  
Understands the problems facing Australia 50%   50%  
Superficial 44%   43%   +1
A capable leader 43%   41%   +2
Out of touch with ordinary people 42%   44%   -2
Narrow-minded 40%   40%  
Arrogant 40%   38%   +2
Erratic 37%   37%  
Good in a crisis 37%   34%   +3
Trustworthy 31%   33%   -2
Aggressive 30%   33%   -3
Intolerant 30%   31%   -1
Visionary 28%   29%   -1
More honest than most politicians 26%   26%  

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (60%), intelligent (60%) and understands the problems facing Australia (50%).

There have been no significant changes over the last 3 weeks.

Leader attributes – comparisons

May 24, 2016
  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten   Difference
Out of touch with ordinary people 63% 42% +21
Intelligent 76% 60% +16
A capable leader 55% 43% +12
Visionary 40% 28% +12
Arrogant 51% 40% +11
Good in a crisis 48% 37% +11
More honest than most politicians 36% 26% +10
Trustworthy 37% 31% +6
Superficial 48% 44% +4
Intolerant 34% 30% +4
Narrow-minded 41% 40% +1
Aggressive 31% 30% +1
Hard-working 60% 60%
Understands the problems facing Australia 47% 50% -3
Erratic 34% 37% -3

Compared to Bill Shorten, Malcolm Turnbull is more likely to be considered out of touch with ordinary people (+21), intelligent (+16%), a capable leader (+12%) and visionary (+12%).

Party trust to handle issues

May 24, 2016

Q: Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues? 

  Liberal Labor Don’t know   Difference
Security and the war on terrorism 42% 19% 39%   +23
Management of the economy 42% 22% 36%   +20
Controlling interest rates 34% 22% 44%   +12
Political leadership 36% 25% 40%   +11
Managing population growth 33% 22% 45%   +11
Treatment of asylum seekers 33% 25% 41%   +8
Ensuring a quality water supply 26% 26% 47%  
Ensuring a fair taxation system 27% 35% 38%   -8
Housing affordability 25% 35% 40%   -10
Ensuring a quality education for all children 28% 39% 34%   -11
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 26% 37% 37%   -11
Addressing climate change 22% 33% 45%   -11
Protecting the environment 22% 34% 43%   -12
A fair industrial relations system 27% 39% 34%   -12
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 26% 39% 35%   -13

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war of terrorism (+23), management of the economy (+20) and controlling interest rates (+12).

The Labor Party is trusted more to handle protecting jobs and local industries (+13), a fair industrial relations system (+12) and protecting the environment (+12).

Leader trust to handle issues

May 24, 2016

Q: Which leader – Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten – would you trust most to handle the following issues? 

  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Don’t know   Difference
Regulating the banking and finance sector 33% 27% 39%   +6
Supporting Australia’s manufacturing industries 30% 31% 39%   -1
Ensuring big companies pay their share of tax 28% 34% 38%   -6
Protecting the Great Barrier Reef 21% 27% 52%   -6
Funding hospitals 27% 35% 38%   -8
Addressing climate change 21% 29% 50%   -8
Making housing more affordable for first home buyers 23% 32% 44%   -9
Looking after the needs of pensioners 21% 35% 44%   -14
Funding public schools 24% 40% 36%   -16
Maintaining workers’ wages and conditions 21% 43% 35%   -22

Bill Shorten is trusted more for maintaining workers’ wages and conditions (+22), funding public schools (+16) and looking after the needs of pensioners (+14).

Policy on asylum seekers

May 24, 2016

Q: If the Labor Party was elected into Government at the next election, do you think they would keep the Coalition Government’s policy on asylum seekers arriving by boat or do you think they would change the policy?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Would keep the policy 28%   38% 27% 30% 26%
Would change the policy 38%   26% 54% 29% 46%
Don’t know 34%   36% 20% 41% 28%

38% think that if the Labor Party is elected, they would change the Coalition Government’s policy on asylum seekers and 28% think they would keep the Coalition policy.

More than half the Liberal/National voters think Labor would change the Coalition policy.

Statements about immigration

May 18, 2016

 Q. Each year Australia accepts thousands of migrants – mainly skilled migrants and family reunion programs but also some refugees fleeing persecution. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about migrants and refugees in Australia?

  Total agree Total disagree   Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
The level of immigration into Australia over the last ten years has been too high 59% 28%   26% 33% 20% 8% 13%
Overall, migrants have made a positive contribution to Australian society 63% 25%   19% 44% 17% 8% 13%
Multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians. 62% 27%   18% 44% 19% 8% 11%
Multiculturalism has failed and caused social division and religious extremism in Australia. 46% 40%   19% 27% 28% 12% 13%
I would trust the Liberal Party to have the right policies on immigration 41% 36%   13% 28% 17% 19% 24%
I would trust the Labor Party to have the right policies on immigration 28% 47%   7% 21% 25% 22% 25%
Australia should increase its intake of refugees due to the refugee crisis in Europe. 28% 57%   8% 20% 25% 32% 15%
Accepting refugees is something a wealthy nation like Australia should do to support poorer nations 38% 48%   11% 27% 25% 23% 14%

 

 

  Born overseas agree Born overseas disagree   Parents born overseas agree Parents born overseas disagree   Australian born agree Australian born disagree
The level of immigration into Australia over the last ten years has been too high 60% 28%   58% 28%   60% 27%
Overall, migrants have made a positive contribution to Australian society 69% 20%   60% 26%   60% 27%
Multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians. 71% 23%   62% 24%   57% 31%
Multiculturalism has failed and caused social division and religious extremism in Australia. 43% 48%   48% 38%   49% 38%
I would trust the Liberal Party to have the right policies on immigration 45% 32%   44% 33%   37% 39%
I would trust the Labor Party to have the right policies on immigration 34% 42%   32% 42%   22% 52%
Australia should increase its intake of refugees due to the refugee crisis in Europe. 31% 56%   27% 55%   27% 58%
Accepting refugees is something a wealthy nation like Australia should do to support poorer nations 40% 48%   39% 44%   37% 50%


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