Federal voting intention

Sep 11, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   2 weeks ago

28/8/18

4 weeks ago 14/8/18   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 32%   32% 36%    
National 3%   3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 36%   35% 39%   42.0%
Labor 37%   39% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10%   10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 2%   2% 1%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   7% 6%    
Other/Independent 7%   7% 7%   13.1%
2 party preferred            
Liberal National 46%   45% 48%   50.4%
Labor 54%   55% 52%   49.6%

 

  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Scott Morrison

Sep 11, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Turnbull Aug 2018
Total approve 37%   23% 63% 20% 35%   42%
Total disapprove 31%   44% 15% 51% 35%   42%
Strongly approve 9%   5% 17% 3% 7%   9%
Approve 28%   18% 46% 17% 28%   33%
Disapprove 17%   22% 10% 24% 19%   23%
Strongly disapprove 14%   22% 5% 27% 16%   19%
Don’t know 33%   33% 21% 30% 30%   16%

37% approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister (down 5% from Malcolm Turnbull figures last month), and 31% disapproved (down 11%) – a change in net approval rating from 0 to +6. 33% could not give an opinion.

63% (down 20%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing, compared to 23% of ALP voters, 20% of Greens and 35% of other voters.

By gender, men were 42% approve/31% disapprove and women 31% approve/29% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Sep 11, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug 2018 Jul 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017
Total Approve 35% 64% 17% 50% 21%   34% 31% 33% 37% 36% 36% 34% 30%
Total Disapprove 43% 17% 70% 31% 67%   44% 47% 46% 44% 45% 47% 43% 49%
Strongly approve 8% 18% 3% 6% 2% 7% 5% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Approve 27% 46% 14% 44% 19% 27% 26% 27% 29% 29% 29% 29% 26%
Disapprove 21% 15% 28% 24% 25% 22% 25% 23% 23% 23% 25% 28% 26%
Strongly disapprove 22% 2% 42% 7% 42% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 22% 15% 23%
Don’t know 22%   19% 13% 19% 12%   22% 21% 21% 19% 19% 17% 23% 22%

35% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 1% from last month), and 43% disapproved (down 1%) – a change in net approval rating from -10 to -8.

64% (down 1%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 50% of Greens voters and 17% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 38% approve/47% disapprove and women 30% approve/40% disapprove.

 

 

Preferred Prime Minister

Sep 11, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2018 Morrison Aug 2018

Turnbull

Scott Morrison 39%   14% 74% 15% 47%   39% 41%
Bill Shorten 27%   56% 7% 49% 15%   29% 27%
Don’t know 34%   30% 19% 36% 38%   32% 31%


39% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (no change in last fortnight), and 27% thought Bill Shorten would be better (down 2%). 34% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 74% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister, and 56% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (49%) to Scott Morrison (15%).

43% of men prefer Scott Morrison and 30% prefer Bill Shorten.

35% of women prefer Scott Morrison and 24% prefer Bill Shorten.

Approval of leadership change

Sep 11, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Scott Morrison replacing Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   2 weeks ago
Total approve 35%   29% 47% 24% 40%   35%
Total disapprove 47%   56% 38% 64% 51%   40%
Strongly approve 9%   7% 13% 7% 12%   10%
Approve 26%   22% 34% 17% 28%   25%
Disapprove 25%   28% 21% 38% 26%   22%
Strongly disapprove 22%   28% 17% 26% 25%   18%
Don’t know 19%   16% 14% 13% 9%   25%

 

35% approved of Scott Morrison replacing Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party (same as 2 weeks ago) and 47% disapproved (up 7%).

467% of Liberal National voters approved and 38% disapproved. 56% of Labor voters and 64% of Greens voters disapproved.

Attributes of Scott Morrison

Sep 11, 2018

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison?

  Total Apr 2018 Turnbull   Change
Intelligent 66% 74%   -8
Hard-working 60% 60%  
A capable leader 54% 53%   +1
Out of touch with ordinary people 51% 63%   -12
Understands the problems facing Australia 51% 45%   +6
Good in a crisis 44% 47%   -3
Superficial 43% 51%   -8
Narrow-minded 41% 44%   -3
Trustworthy 41% 38%   +3
Visionary 39% 34%   +5
Arrogant 38% 51%   -13
More honest than most politicians 38% 36%   +2
Intolerant 36% 34%   +2
Aggressive 34% 30%   +4
Erratic 29% 34%   -5

Scott Morrison’s key attributes were intelligent (66%, but down 8% on Malcolm Turnbull’s last figures), hard working (60%, no change) and a capable leader (54%, up 1%).

 

Main changes from Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are for arrogant (down 13%), out of touch with ordinary people (down 12%), intelligent (down 8%) and superficial (down 8%).

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

Sep 11, 2018

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

  Total Apr 2018   Change
Hard working 58% 60%   -2
Intelligent 55% 59%   -4
Out of touch with ordinary people 50% 50%  
Superficial 50% 47%   +3
Arrogant 50% 43%   +7
Understands the problems facing Australia 48% 47%   +1
Narrow-minded 44% 44%  
A capable leader 43% 44%   -1
Erratic 41% 40%   +1
Good in a crisis 39% 40%   -1
Intolerant 39% 36%   +3
Aggressive 38% 36%   +2
Visionary 34% 33%   +1
Trustworthy 33% 33%  
More honest than most politicians 29% 30%   -1

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (58%, down 2% since April), intelligent (55%, down 4%), out of touch with ordinary people (50%, no change), superficial (50%, up 3%) and arrogant (50%, up 7%).

 

The main changes since April have been for arrogant (up 7%) and intelligent (down 4%).

Leader attributes – comparisons

Sep 11, 2018
  Scott Morrison Bill Shorten   Difference
Intelligent 66% 55%   +11
A capable leader 54% 43%   +11
More honest than most politicians 38% 29%   +9
Trustworthy 41% 33%   +8
Good in a crisis 44% 39%   +5
Visionary 39% 34%   +5
Understands the problems facing Australia 51% 48%   +3
Hard-working 60% 58%   +2
Out of touch with ordinary people 51% 50%   +1
Narrow-minded 41% 44%   -3
Intolerant 36% 39%   -3
Aggressive 34% 38%   -4
Superficial 43% 50%   -7
Arrogant 38% 50%   -12
Erratic 29% 41%   -12

 

Compared to Bill Shorten, Scott Morrison is more likely to be considered intelligent (+11), a capable leader (+11), more honest than most politicians (+9) and trustworthy (+8).

 

Bill Shorten is more likely to be considered erratic (+12), arrogant (+12) and superficial (+7).

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