Federal voting intention

Sep 27, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

20/9/16

2 weeks ago

13/9/16

4 weeks ago

30/8/16

  Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 36%   34% 35% 37%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 39%   37% 38% 40%   42.0%
Labor 36%   37% 37% 36%   34.7%
Greens 9%   10% 10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   4% 4% 4%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6%   6% 5%      
Other/Independent 7%   7% 7% 10%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   48% 48% 49%   50.4%
Labor 52%   52% 52% 51%   49.6%

N.B. Sample = 1,800. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Attributes of Malcolm Turnbull

Sep 27, 2016

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull?

  Total   May 2016   Difference
Intelligent 75%   76%   -1
Out of touch with ordinary people 65%   63%   +2
Hard-working 61%   60%   +1
Arrogant 56%   51%   +5
A capable leader 51%   55%   -4
Superficial 50%   48%   +2
Good in a crisis 47%   48%   -1
Understands the problems facing Australia 46%   47%   -1
Narrow-minded 45%   41%   +4
Trustworthy 39%   37%   +2
More honest than most politicians 37%   36%   +1
Intolerant 37%   34%   +3
Erratic 36%   34%   +2
Visionary 35%   40%   -5
Aggressive 31%   31%  

Malcolm Turnbull’s key attributes were intelligent (75%), out of touch with ordinary people (65%), hard working (61%) and arrogant (56%).

Since May, the main changes have been for arrogant (up 5%), visionary (down 5%), a capable leader (down 4%) and narrow-minded (up 4%).

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

Sep 27, 2016

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

  Total   May 2016   Change
Hard working 61%   60%   +1
Intelligent 59%   60%   -1
Understands the problems facing Australia 49%   50%   -1
Out of touch with ordinary people 46%   42%   +4
Superficial 45%   44%   +1
A capable leader 45%   43%   +2
Arrogant 44%   40%   +4
Narrow-minded 42%   40%   +2
Erratic 39%   37%   +2
Good in a crisis 39%   37%   +2
Aggressive 36%   30%   +6
Intolerant 33%   30%   +3
Trustworthy 32%   31%   +1
Visionary 32%   28%   +4
More honest than most politicians 29%   26%   +3

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (61%), intelligent (59%) and understands the problems facing Australia (49%).

Since May, the main changes have been for aggressive (up 6%), out of touch with ordinary people (up 4%), arrogant (up 4%) and visionary (up 4%).

Leader attributes – comparisons

Sep 27, 2016
  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten   Difference
Out of touch with ordinary people 65% 46%   +19
Intelligent 75% 59%   +16
Arrogant 56% 44%   +12
Good in a crisis 47% 39%   +8
More honest than most politicians 37% 29%   +8
Trustworthy 39% 32%   +7
A capable leader 51% 45%   +6
Superficial 50% 45%   +5
Intolerant 37% 33%   +4
Narrow-minded 45% 42%   +3
Visionary 35% 32%   +3
Hard-working 61% 61%  
Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 49%   -3
Erratic 36% 39%   -3
Aggressive 31% 36%   -5

Compared to Bill Shorten, Malcolm Turnbull is more likely to be considered out of touch with ordinary people (+19), intelligent (+16%), arrogant (+12), good in a crisis (+8) and more honest than most politicians (+8).

Leader trust to handle issues

Sep 27, 2016

Q. Which leader – Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten – would you trust most to handle the following issues?

  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Don’t know   Difference   Difference May 2016
Regulating the banking and finance sector 33% 29% 38%   +4   +6
Supporting Australia’s manufacturing industries 30% 32% 37%   -2   -1
Addressing climate change 26% 30% 44%   -4   -8
Protecting the Great Barrier Reef 23% 29% 48%   -6   -6
Funding hospitals 29% 36% 35%   -7   -8
Making housing more affordable for first home buyers 23% 33% 44%   -10   -9
Ensuring big companies pay their share of tax 27% 37% 36%   -10   -6
Looking after the needs of pensioners 22% 38% 40%   -16   -14
Funding public schools 24% 40% 36%   -16   -16
Maintaining workers’ wages and conditions 23% 44% 34%   -21   -22

Bill Shorten is trusted more for maintaining workers’ wages and conditions (+21), funding public schools (+16) and looking after the needs of pensioners (+16). Since May, the main changes have been a 4% shift to Malcolm Turnbull on addressing climate change and a 4% shift to Bill Shorten on ensuring big companies pay their share of tax.

Voluntary euthanasia

Sep 27, 2016

Q. When a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain, do you think doctors should or should not be allowed by law to assist the patient to commit suicide if the patient requests it?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2010 Nov 2013 Oct 2014 May 2015
Should be allowed 68%   71% 66% 82% 70%   69% 68% 66% 72%
Should not be allowed 13%   13% 15% 9% 15%   14% 19% 14% 12%
Don’t know 19%   16% 19% 9% 16%   17% 13% 20% 16%

68% of respondents think that that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient commit suicide – down 4% since May last year but similar to results over the last 6 years.  13% think it should not be allowed.

82% of Green voters, 71% of Labor and 66% of Liberal/National voters agreed that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient to commit suicide.

68% of women, 67% of men and 76% of those aged 45-64 support voluntary euthanasia.

Media Laws

Sep 27, 2016

Q. Would you approve or disapprove of changing the media laws to allow a single company to own all three of a newspaper, TV network and radio station in a single market?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 18%   16% 21% 15% 21%
Total disapprove 61%   65% 59% 74% 63%
Strongly approve 4%   3% 5% 5% 5%
Approve 14%   13% 16% 10% 16%
Disapprove 28%   26% 33% 26% 26%
Strongly disapprove 33%   39% 26% 48% 37%
Don’t know 22%   19% 20% 12% 14%

61% disapprove of changing the media laws to allow a single company to own all three of a newspaper, TV network and radio station in a single market and only 18% approve. There was majority disapproval across all voter and demographic groups.

Importance of issues

Sep 27, 2016

Q. How important are the following issues for Australia?

  Total important Total not important   Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important Don’t know
Reaching a global agreement on tackling climate change 75% 19%   40% 35% 11% 8% 6%
Holding a Royal Commission into the banking and finance industry 62% 25%   27% 35% 17% 8% 12%
Having a treaty with indigenous Australians 59% 33%   25% 34% 17% 16% 8%
Having a plebiscite on same-sex marriage 36% 56%   19% 17% 19% 37% 9%
Having a referendum on becoming a republic 34% 58%   14% 20% 25% 33% 9%

 

  Total important   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Reaching a global agreement on tackling climate change 75%   83% 74% 94% 64% 72% 78% 75% 72% 80%
Holding a Royal Commission into the banking and finance industry 62%   73% 59% 64% 66% 65% 60% 56% 65% 67%
Having a treaty with indigenous Australians 59%   67% 55% 75% 51% 54% 64% 63% 57% 59%
Having a plebiscite on same-sex marriage 36%   36% 41% 27% 34% 34% 37% 43% 33% 32%
Having a referendum on becoming a republic 34%   41% 31% 37% 32% 40% 27% 33% 35% 32%

Of those listed, the most important issues for Australia were considered to be reaching a global agreement on tackling climate change (75% important), a Royal Commission into the banking and finance industry (62%) and having a treaty with indigenous Australian (59%).

Only 36% thought holding a plebiscite on same-sex marriage was important and 34% thought it was important to hold a referendum on becoming a republic.

Having a treaty with indigenous Australian was most strongly supported by Greens voters (75%), Labor voters (67%), women (64%) and those aged 18-34 (63%).

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