Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 1, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,799 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election 7 Sep 13

4 weeks ago 4/8/15

2 weeks ago 18/8/15

Last week 25/8/15

This week 1/9/15

Liberal

36%

38%

38%

37%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

39%

41%

41%

40%

Labor

33.4%

38%

38%

37%

38%

Greens

8.6%

12%

10%

10%

11%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

1%

2%

1%

2%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

9%

10%

10%

2 Party Preferred

Election 7 Sep 13

4 weeks ago 4/8/15

2 weeks ago 18/8/15

Last week 25/8/15

This week 1/9/15

Liberal National

53.5%

47%

48%

49%

48%

Labor

46.5%

53%

52%

51%

52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Party Trust to Handle Issues

Sep 1, 2015

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

Liberal

Labor

Greens

Don’t know

Difference

Difference Feb 2015

Management of the economy

40%

24%

5%

31%

+16

+17

Ensuring a quality education for all children

29%

33%

8%

31%

-4

-10

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

29%

31%

8%

31%

-2

-10

Protecting the environment

20%

15%

40%

25%

-20

-25

A fair industrial relations system

27%

35%

7%

31%

-8

-10

Political leadership

32%

23%

8%

36%

+9

+7

Addressing climate change

21%

19%

33%

27%

-12

-17

Controlling interest rates

37%

21%

5%

37%

+16

+13

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

29%

34%

6%

31%

-5

-9

Ensuring a quality water supply

27%

20%

21%

32%

+7

+6

Housing affordability

27%

27%

7%

38%

-6

Ensuring a fair taxation system

32%

28%

7%

33%

+4

-2

Security and the war on terrorism

40%

20%

5%

34%

+20

+19

Treatment of asylum seekers

31%

19%

19%

31%

+12

+13

Managing population growth

31%

20%

8%

41%

+11

+12

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Labor % from Liberal % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Liberal minus Greens.

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war on terrorism (+20), management of the economy (+16), controlling interest rates (+16) and treatment of asylum seekers (+12). The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a fair industrial relations system (-8) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-5).

Main changes since this question was asked in February have been an improvement for the Liberal Party on the health system (up net 8 points), education (up 6), housing affordability (up 6) and taxation (up 6).

Q&A

Sep 1, 2015

Q. How would you rate the ABC program Q&A?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total gave opinion

Total good

46%

53%

37%

70%

52%

80%

Total poor

11%

3%

23%

1%

15%

20%

Very good

18%

23%

11%

33%

20%

31%

Good

28%

30%

26%

37%

32%

49%

Poor

4%

2%

7%

1%

7%

8%

Very poor

7%

1%

16%

8%

12%

Don’t watch it

40%

40%

36%

28%

32%

Don’t know

4%

3%

4%

1%

1%

46% rate Q&A as good and 11% think it is poor. 40% said they don’t watch it. Of those who gave an opinion, 80% think it is good and 20% poor.

NBN

Sep 1, 2015

Q. The Government’s national broadband network plan is to more quickly roll out fibre to local nodes and let Telstra’s copper network carry internet traffic to households, compared to Labor’s plan to roll out fibre to every household outside rural areas, which would cost more and have taken longer but produced higher speeds. Which plan do you believe is best for Australia?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

The Liberal Government’s plan

29%

7%

63%

6%

26%

The Labor plan

38%

62%

12%

66%

43%

Don’t know

33%

31%

25%

28%

31%

38% think the Labor NBN plan is best for Australia and 29% think the Government’s plan is best. 33% did not give an opinion. These views were consistent across age groups.

Are parties too left wing/right wing?

Sep 1, 2015

Q. Do you think the following parties are too right wing/conservative, too left wing/progressive or about right?

Too right wing/ conservative

Too left wing/ progressive

About right

Don’t know

The Labor Party

16%

20%

28%

36%

The Liberal Party

34%

7%

26%

33%

The Nationals

29%

7%

21%

43%

The Greens

9%

30%

20%

41%

Palmer United Party

17%

12%

10%

61%

The Labor Party (Labor voters)

10%

8%

53%

29%

The Liberal Party (Coalition voters

13%

6%

58%

23%

The Nationals (Coalition voters)

18%

7%

41%

34%

The Greens (Greens voters)

2%

17%

67%

14%

About one-third of respondents think that the Liberal and National parties are too right wing and that the Greens are too left wing. However they are divided on the Labor Party – 16% think they are too right wing and 20% too left wing.

Among voter groups, more than half think their party is about right. Coalition voters are a little more likely to think the Liberals and Nationals are too right wing and 17% of Greens voters think the Greens are too left wing.

Have parties become more right wing/left wing?

Sep 1, 2015

Q. Do you think over the last few years, these parties have become more right wing/conservative, more left wing/progressive or stayed about the same?

More right wing/ conservative

More left wing/ progressive

About the same

Don’t know

The Labor Party

19%

16%

31%

34%

The Liberal Party

27%

8%

33%

32%

The Nationals

20%

6%

35%

39%

The Greens

6%

20%

35%

38%

Palmer United Party

9%

9%

24%

57%

The Labor Party (Labor voters)

19%

9%

43%

29%

The Liberal Party (Coalition voters

15%

9%

54%

22%

The Nationals (Coalition voters)

13%

6%

51%

30%

The Greens (Greens voters)

5%

18%

55%

22%

Respondents were a little more likely to think the Liberal and National parties have become more right wing and the Greens have become more lefvt wing over the last few years.

Among their own voters, Labor, Liberal and National parties were all seen as a little more right wing.

Economy heading in right or wrong direction

Sep 1, 2015

Q. Do you think Australia’s economy is heading in the right or wrong direction?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

May 2010

May 2011

Jun 2012

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Aug 2014

May 2015

The right direction

35%

22%

62%

21%

26%

51%

45%

43%

36%

39%

35%

35%

The wrong direction

41%

52%

21%

61%

52%

25%

29%

32%

39%

34%

41%

40%

Don’t know

24%

26%

16%

189%

21%

24%

25%

25%

25%

26%

24%

25%

35% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction and 41% think it is heading in the wrong direction. This represents no significant change since this question was asked in May.

22% (up 3%) of Labor voters, 62% (down 5%) of Liberal/National voters and 21% (up 12%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 52% (down 6%) of Labor voters, 61% (down 4%) of Greens voters and 47% of those earning less than $600pw think the economy is heading in the wrong direction.

Concern about economic issues

Sep 1, 2015

Q. How concerned are you personally about the following economic issues?

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not so concerned

Not at all concerned

Don’t know

Very concerned Feb 2015

Change

Cost of electricity and gas

52%

33%

10%

3%

3%

47%

+5

Housing affordability

46%

33%

14%

4%

4%

39%

+7

Cost of food and groceries

42%

39%

13%

3%

3%

35%

+7

Cost of petrol

42%

36%

14%

4%

3%

24%

+18

Job security

35%

39%

15%

6%

5%

29%

+6

Wealth disparity

35%

33%

19%

7%

6%

30%

+5

Unemployment

34%

42%

15%

6%

3%

30%

+4

Value of the Australian dollar

32%

39%

21%

4%

4%

24%

+8

Tax levels

32%

37%

21%

6%

5%

24%

+8

Interest rates

28%

34%

24%

10%

5%

19%

+9

The current budget deficit

25%

39%

24%

7%

6%

27%

-2

National debt

24%

37%

27%

7%

5%

27%

-3

Economic issues of most concern were cost of electricity/gas (52% very concerned), housing affordability (46%), cost of food and groceries (42%) and the cost of petrol (42%). Since February there have been increases in concern about almost all issues – especially cost of petrol (up 18%, although concern was unusually low in February), interest rates (up 9%), tax levels (up 8%), value of the dollar (up 8%), housing affordability (up 7%) and cost of food and groceries (up 7%).

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