Federal voting intention

Jun 5, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total 2 weeks ago 22/5/18 4 weeks ago 8/5/18 Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 34% 38% 35%
National 3% 2% 3%
Total Liberal/National 36% 40% 38% 42.0%
Labor 37% 36% 37% 34.7%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 2% 1% 2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8% 8% 6%
Other/Independent 7% 6% 6% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 46% 49% 47% 50.4%
Labor 54% 51% 53% 49.6%

Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Jun 5, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018
Total approve 42% 28% 79% 22% 24% 40% 39% 41%
Total disapprove 42% 60% 14% 61% 63% 42% 42% 43%
Strongly approve 7% 5% 17% 3% 2% 9% 8% 9%
Approve 34% 23% 62% 19% 22% 31% 31% 32%
Disapprove 23% 30% 11% 35% 35% 22% 26% 26%
Strongly disapprove 18% 30% 3% 26% 28% 20% 16% 17%
Don’t know 16% 12% 7% 16% 12% 19% 19% 16%

42% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (up 2% from last month), and 42% disapproved (no change) – a change in net approval rating from -2 to 0. This is Malcolm Turnbull’s best net approval rating since June 2016.

79% (up 6%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 28% of ALP voters and 22% of Greens and 24% of other voters.

By gender, men were 48% approve/43% disapprove and women 36% approve/41% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Jun 5, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018
Total Approve 33% 63% 19% 33% 16% 37% 35% 37%
Total Disapprove 46% 20% 71% 44% 69% 41% 43% 44%
Strongly approve 6% 16% 3% 3% 8% 6% 8%
Approve 27% 47% 16% 33% 13% 29% 29% 29%
Disapprove 23% 17% 29% 34% 27% 21% 22% 23%
Strongly disapprove 23% 3% 42% 10% 42% 20% 21% 21%
Don’t know 21% 17% 10% 22% 15% 23% 23% 19%

 

33% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (down 4% from last month), and 46% disapproved (up 5%) – a change in net approval rating from -4 to -13.

62% (down 2%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 33% of Greens voters and 19% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 36% approve/51% disapprove and women 32% approve/40% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Jun 5, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other May 2018 Apr 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017
Malcolm Turnbull 41% 18% 82% 21% 38% 40% 41% 41% 42%
Bill Shorten 27% 55% 6% 40% 13% 26% 26% 26% 28%
Don’t know 32% 27% 12% 39% 48% 34% 33% 33% 31%

41% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister (up 1% from last month), and 27% thought Bill Shorten would be better (up 1%). 32% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 82% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 55% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (40%) to Malcolm Turnbull (21%).

48% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 27% prefer Bill Shorten.

34% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 26% prefer Bill Shorten.

Business Tax Cuts

Jun 5, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Government’s proposal to cut the tax rate for businesses from 30% to 25% estimated to cost $65 billion over the next 10 years?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total Approve 37% 22% 65% 22% 38%
Total Disapprove 37% 56% 16% 52% 41%
Strongly approve 11% 6% 21% 2% 11%
Approve 26% 16% 44% 20% 27%
Disapprove 19% 26% 10% 31% 19%
Strongly disapprove 18% 30% 6% 21% 22%
Don’t know 26%   23% 20% 26% 22%

37% approve of the Federal Government’s proposal for business tax cuts and 37% disapprove. 26% did not give an opinion.

65% of Liberal National voters approve but 56% of Labor voters and 52% of Greens voters disapprove. Other voters are split 38% approve, 41% disapprove. 42% of full-time workers approve and 33% disapprove.

Awareness of Newstart

Jun 5, 2018

Q. As for as you know how much is the weekly NewStart, which is the benefit paid to people who are out of work?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Less than $250 per week 23% 25% 21% 28% 24%
Between $250 and $300 per week 27% 32% 23% 30% 28%
Between $300 and $400 per week 10% 11% 11% 12% 10%
More than $400 per week 4% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Don’t know 36% 28% 41% 27% 34%

50% think that the weekly Newstart benefit is less than $300. Only 14% think it is more than $300. There were not substantial differences between voter and demographic groups, although Liberal National voters were more likely to say “don’t know” (41%).

Opinion of Newstart

Jun 5, 2018

Q.The Newstart benefit for a single person with no children is about $270 per week. Do you think it is too high, too low or about right?

 
Total
 
Aged 18-34
Aged 35-54
Aged 55+
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Vote other
Inc. less than $600 pw
Inc. $600
-$1,000 pw
Inc. $1,000
-$1,500 pw
Inc. $1,500
-$2,000pw
Inc. more than $2,000 pw
Too high 9% 14% 8% 6% 6% 12% 4% 12% 4% 4% 10% 11% 15%
Too low 50% 45% 50% 56% 63% 36% 59% 50% 58% 66% 50% 50% 39%
About right 26% 30% 24% 24% 22% 35% 28% 24% 26% 17% 27% 26% 34%
Don’t know 15% 11% 18% 14% 9% 17% 9% 14% 11% 13% 14% 13% 13%

50% think that the Newstart benefit is too low, 26% think it is about right and 9% think it is too high.

Those most likely to think it is too low were Labor voters (63%), Greens voters (59%) and incomes under $1,000 pw (62%).

Those most likely to think it is too high or about right were Liberal National voters (47%), aged 18-34 (44%) and incomes over $2,000 pw (49%).

Statements about Newstart

Jun 5, 2018

Q. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

  Total agree Total disagree Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
The Government’s has a responsibility to ensure every Australian has enough money to put a roof over their head and food on their table. 77% 16% 35% 42% 13% 3% 7%
In Australia, no one should go without basic essentials like food, healthcare, transport and power. 92% 5% 48% 44% 4% 1% 4%
I support an increase in Newstart, the benefit paid to unemployed people, as it has not been increased in real terms for 24 years. 68% 19% 33% 35% 13% 6% 13%
A fair government would raise the rate of Newstart, Youth Allowance and related payments to ensure everybody has enough to live on while they look for paid work. 70% 20% 33% 37% 14% 6% 11%
A responsible government would increase Newstart payments by a minimum of $10 a day to ensure every person can afford a roof over their head and food on the table 64% 21% 32% 32% 15% 6% 15%
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