Federal voting intention

Aug 30, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

23/8/16

2 weeks ago

16/8/16

4 weeks ago

2/8/16

  Election  7 Sep 13
Liberal 37%   36% 36% 36%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 40%   39% 39% 39%   45.6%
Labor 37%   36% 37% 37%   33.4%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   4% 4% 4%  
Other/Independent 10%   12% 11% 10%   12.4%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   49% 48% 48%   53.5%
Labor 51%   51% 52% 52%   46.5%

NB: Sample = 1,797. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

National vote on same-sex marriage

Aug 30, 2016

Q. The Federal Government intends to hold a national vote on same sex marriage. If the question was “Do you approve of a law to permit people of the same sex to marry?” how would you vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Yes 57%   69% 47% 85% 48%   53% 61% 62% 58% 50%
No 28%   21% 39% 5% 42%   33% 24% 21% 29% 37%
Don’t know 15%   10% 14% 10% 10%   14% 15% 17% 13% 13%

57% would vote “yes” in a plebiscite on same-sex marriage and 28% would vote “no”. 15% did not know how they would vote.

Those most likely to vote “yes” were Greens voters (85%), Labor voters (69%) and voters aged 18-34 (62%).

50% of those aged 65+ would vote “no”.

Voting if not compulsory

Aug 30, 2016

Q. If the national vote was not compulsory would you –

Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Vote yes Vote no
Definitely vote 48% 51% 51% 58% 51% 46% 51% 44% 46% 58% 54% 51%
Probably vote 24% 23% 27% 24% 22% 26% 22% 28% 24% 18% 27% 19%
Probably not vote 13% 14% 12% 11% 11% 12% 14% 13% 14% 12% 10% 14%
Definitely not vote 6% 4% 6% 1% 9% 8% 5% 9% 5% 5% 4% 11%
Not sure 8% 7% 5% 5% 8% 7% 9% 6% 11% 6% 5% 6%

If voting in the plebiscite on same-sex marriage was not compulsory, 48% say they would definitely vote, and 24% would probably vote. 19% would probably or definitely not vote.

81% of those voting “yes” would probably or definitely vote compared to 70% of those who would vote “no”.

Expectation of national vote

Aug 30, 2016

Q. Do you expect this national vote on same sex marriage will pass?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Vote yes Vote no
Yes 47%   48% 48% 58% 46%   48% 45% 53% 43% 46%   63% 24%
No 24%   22% 26% 17% 31%   28% 20% 18% 28% 23%   11% 55%
Not sure 30%   29% 26% 25% 23%   24% 35% 30% 29% 31%   26% 21%

47% believe that the vote on same-sex marriage will pass and 24% think it will not pass.

63% of those voting “yes” think it will pass but 55% of those voting “no” think it will not pass.

Decision on same sex marriage

Aug 30, 2016

Q. Do you think the issue of same sex marriage should be decided by Parliament or should there be a national vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Mar 2016 Jul 2016   Vote yes Vote no
Should be decided by Parliament 25%   32% 21% 40% 25%   22% 21% 23% 25%   33% 17%
Should have a national vote 59%   55% 66% 48% 61%   66% 67% 66% 60%   58% 68%
Don’t know 16%   13% 13% 13% 14%   12% 12% 11% 15%   8% 15%

59% favour a national vote on same-sex marriage and 25% think the issue should be decided by Parliament.

This represents little change since this question was asked in July.

Life compared to 50 years ago

Aug 30, 2016

Q. Compared with 50 years ago, do you think life for people like you in Australia today is better, worse or about the same?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Total better 45%   47% 54% 60% 27%   46% 46% 50% 42% 46%
Total worse 34%   32% 29% 25% 57%   36% 32% 27% 36% 40%
A lot better 18%   17% 26% 23% 8%   19% 18% 22% 15% 20%
A little better 27%   30% 28% 37% 19%   27% 28% 28% 27% 26%
About the same 14%   14% 14% 13% 13%   13% 15% 16% 16% 11%
A little worse 23%   22% 22% 18% 29%   24% 22% 21% 23% 25%
A lot worse 11%   10% 7% 7% 28%   12% 10% 6% 13% 15%
Don’t know 6%   7% 4% 3% 4%   4% 8% 8% 7% 3%

45% think that life for people in Australia today is better than 50 years ago and 34% think it is worse.

Those more likely to think it is better were Greens voters (60%), Liberal/National voters (54%), aged 18-34 (50%), incomes over $2,000 pw (51%) and university educated (54%).

Those more likely to think it is worse were independent and other party voters (57%), aged 55+ (40%), those who had not completed year 12 (40%) and those with incomes under $1,000 pw (40%)

Life for next generation

Aug 30, 2016

Q. Do you think life for the next generation of Australians will be better, worse or about the same compared with life today?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Total better 24%   24% 29% 34% 15%   27% 22% 29% 24% 20%
Total worse 47%   46% 41% 32% 66%   45% 47% 36% 47% 55%
A lot better 6%   5% 9% 5% 5%   7% 5% 7% 7% 3%
A little better 18%   19% 20% 29% 10%   20% 17% 22% 17% 17%
About the same 22%   22% 24% 30% 17%   21% 23% 24% 21% 21%
A little worse 27%   25% 27% 24% 32%   24% 29% 23% 26% 31%
A lot worse 20%   21% 14% 8% 34%   21% 18% 13% 21% 24%
Don’t know 7%   8% 5% 4% 3%   6% 9% 11% 7% 4%

24% think that life for the next generation of Australians will be better than life today and 47% think it will be worse.

Those more likely to think it will be better were Greens voters (34%).

Those more likely to think it will be worse were aged 55+ (55%) and other/independent voters (66%).

Obstacles to women getting ahead

Aug 30, 2016

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men 46%   48% 41% 71% 46%   31% 60% 43% 45% 51%
Obstacles that made it harder for women to get ahead are largely gone 40%   39% 47% 20% 45%   53% 27% 42% 37% 40%
Don’t know 14%   13% 12% 9% 10%   16% 13% 15% 18% 9%

46% think significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men and 40% think that those obstacles are largely gone.

Those most likely to think there are still significant obstacles were Greens voters (71%) and women (60%).

53% of men think those obstacles are largely gone.

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