Federal voting intention

Jul 26, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

19/7/16

2 weeks ago

12/7/16

4 weeks ago

28/6/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 35%   35% 37% 37%    
National 4%   4% 4% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 39%   39% 41% 39%   45.6%
Labor 37%   36% 36% 37%   33.4%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   4% 3% 4%  
Other/Independent 11%   10% 10% 10%   12.4%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   49% 49% 49%   53.5%
Labor 52%   51% 51% 51%   46.5%

 

  1. Sample = 1,910. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Relationship with US if Donald Trump President

Jul 26, 2016

Q. If Donald Trump was elected President do you think Australia’s relationship with the United States would become better or worse?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total better 7%   6% 8% 4% 9%
Total worse 63%   67% 58% 78% 65%
Much better 3%   2% 3% 2% 5%
Better 4%   4% 5% 2% 4%
Make no difference 21%   20% 26% 12% 19%
Worse 26%   24% 25% 29% 34%
Much worse 37%   43% 33% 49% 31%
Don’t know 9%   8% 8% 7% 7%

7% think that the election of Donald Trump as US President would make our relationship with the US better and 63% think it would be worse. 21% think it would make no difference.

A majority of all voter groups thought that the election of Donald Trump would make our relationship worse.

Relationship with US if Hillary Clinton President

Jul 26, 2016

Q. If Hillary Clinton was elected President do you think Australia’s relationship with the United States would become better or worse?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total better 24%   28% 30% 19% 9%
Total worse 13%   7% 6% 7% 18%
Much better 8%   11% 12% 2%
Better 16%   17% 18% 19% 7%
Make no difference 54%   54% 55% 60% 64%
Worse 5%   3% 3% 6% 10%
Much worse 4%   4% 3% 1% 8%
Don’t know 13%   11% 9% 14% 10%

24% think that the election of Hillary Clinton as US President would make our relationship with the US better and 13% think it would be worse. 54% think it would make no difference. The views of Liberal/National voters and Labor voters were similar.

Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations

Jul 26, 2016

Q. How much trust do you have in Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Jun 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015
Total a lot/some 47%   30% 81% 35% 36%   41% 35% 40% 33% 35%
Total little/no trust 46%   65% 17% 52% 62%   53% 59% 53% 62% 58%
A lot of trust 12%   5% 28% 3%   20% 17% 17% 12% 13%
Some trust 35%   25% 53% 35% 33%   21% 18% 23% 21% 22%
A little trust 24%   28% 16% 32% 27%   18% 16% 18% 22% 20%
No trust 22%   37% 1% 20% 35%   35% 43% 35% 40% 38%
Don’t know 7%   6% 2% 13% 3%   7% 5% 6% 5% 7%

 Overall, 47% have a lot or some trust in Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations and 46% have a little or no trust. This represent a substantial increase in trust since a similar question was asked last May about the Tony Abbott Government.

However, most of the shift has been an increase for “some trust”. Only 12% (down 1%) have “a lot of trust” and 22% (down 26%) have no trust.

Importance of international relationships

Jul 26, 2016

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

  Very import-ant Quite import-ant Not very import-ant Don’t know   Very impor-tant

Mar 11

Very import-ant

Nov 13

Very import-ant

Oct 14

Very import-ant

Feb 15

Very import-ant

May 15

Change
United States 49% 37% 6% 8% 60% 59% 53% 44% 44% +5
China 42% 42% 9% 7% 48% 54% 44% 41% 39% +3
United Kingdom 41% 42% 9% 9% 56% 48% 48% 38% 39% +2
Indonesia 26% 42% 22% 10% 31% 40% 32% 22% 21% +4
Japan 25% 50% 15% 9% 39% 35% 31% 30% 31% -6
Canada 22% 43% 24% 10% na na 26% 22% 24% -2
India 19% 44% 25% 11% 26% 26% 22% 20% 22% -3
Germany 19% 44% 26% 11% 23% 20% 22% 18% 20% -1
Russia 17% 35% 36% 12% na na 16% 11% 13% +4
Saudi Arabia 13% 34% 39% 13% na na 17% 12% 14% -1

49% of respondents think it is very important to have a close relationship with the United States and 42% think it is very important to have a close relationship with China and 41% with the United Kingdom. Relations with Russia (17%) and Saudi Arabia (13%) were thought to be the least important.

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 59% of Liberal/National voters, 49% of Labor voters and 32% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked in May last year, the importance of our relationship with the US has increased 5% and the importance of our relationship with japan decreased 6%.

Government priorities

Jul 26, 2016

Q. What do you think should be the main priorities for the new Government? (can select up to 3)

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Invest more in hospitals and health services 55%   66% 49% 43% 55%
Invest more in education 31%   40% 22% 29% 33%
Ensuring big businesses pay their fair share of tax 29%   24% 29% 34% 45%
Cut spending to reduce the deficit 27%   12% 48% 5% 22%
Do more to address unemployment 25%   28% 25% 21% 19%
Invest more in infrastructure e.g. rail and roads 19%   15% 24% 12% 21%
Invest more in renewable energy 17%   14% 14% 40% 23%
Vote on same sex marriage 15%   21% 7% 27% 11%
Do more to address climate change 13%   16% 5% 45% 10%
Build the NBN 13%   18% 10% 13% 12%
Do more to assist first home buyers 12%   13% 10% 12% 9%
More support for local industries 11%   9% 13% 3% 15%
Cut company tax 4%   2% 7% 1% 2%
Make changes to superannuation 4%   5% 4% <1% 2%

55% thought the one of the Government’s main priorities was to invest more in hospitals and health services. Other important priorities were investing more in education (31%), Ensuring big businesses pay their fair share of tax (29%), cut spending to reduce the deficit (27%) and do more to address unemployment (25%). Cutting company tax and making changes to superannuation were the least important issues (both 4%).

For Labor voters the main priorities were investing in hospitals and health (66%), investing more in education (40%) and doing more to address unemployment (28%).

For Liberal/National voters the main priorities were investing in hospitals and health (49%), cutting spending to reduce the deficit (48%) and ensuring big businesses pay their fair share of tax (29%).

For Greens voters the main priorities were doing more to address climate change (45%), investing in hospitals and health (43%) and investing more in renewable energy (40%).

Important issues in vote

Jul 26, 2016

Q. How important to you were the following issues in deciding who you voted for in the recent Federal election?

  Very import-ant Somewhat import-ant Not so import-ant Don’t know
Health policies 60% 30% 6% 5%
Medicare 58% 30% 7% 5%
Economic management 53% 34% 6% 6%
Better for me and my family 53% 35% 6% 6%
Education policies 43% 36% 15% 5%
Taxation policies 38% 44% 12% 6%
Superannuation policies 36% 39% 19% 6%
Environment, climate change policies 34% 38% 21% 6%
The party leader 28% 42% 24% 7%
The actual candidate 27% 44% 23% 7%
The CFA issue 17% 29% 31% 22%

 

Very important Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Health policies 60%   75% 50% 65% 56%
Medicare 58%   79% 42% 63% 55%
Economic management 53%   53% 68% 25% 50%
Better for me and my family 53%   64% 51% 33% 52%
Education policies 43%   53% 32% 60% 43%
Taxation policies 38%   44% 38% 36% 34%
Superannuation policies 36%   40% 38% 35% 35%
Environment, climate change policies 34%   43% 18% 71% 35%
The party leader 28%   28% 33% 14% 28%
The actual candidate 27%   28% 27% 20% 33%
The CFA issue 17%   17% 18% 13% 21%

The most important issues in voting at the recent Federal election were health policies (60% very important), Medicare (58%), economic management (53%) and which party was better for me and my family (53%).

The most important issues for Labor voters were Medicare (79%), health policies (75%) and better for me and my family (53%). The most important issues for Liberal/National voters were economic management (68%), better for me and my family (51%) and health policies (50%). The most important issues for Greens voters were environment and climate change policies (71%), health policies (65%), Medicare (63%) and education policies (60%).

Federal voting intention

Jul 19, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

12/7/16

2 weeks ago

5/7/16

4 weeks ago

21/6/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 35%   37% 38% 37%    
National 4%   4% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 39%   41% 41% 40%   45.6%
Labor 36%   36% 37% 37%   33.4%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   3% 2% 4%  
Other/Independent 10%   10% 10% 9%   12.4%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   49% 50% 49%   53.5%
Labor 51%   51% 50% 51%   46.5%

NB. Sample = 1,833. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

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