Federal voting intention

Feb 9, 2016

If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

2/2/16

2 weeks ago

25/1/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 39%   40% 40%    
National 3%   4% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 43%   44% 44%   45.6%
Labor 35%   35% 35%   33.4%
Greens 11%   11% 10%   8.6%
Palmer United Party 1%   1% 1%   5.5%
Other/Independent 10%   9% 9%   6.9%
2 party preferred            
Liberal National 51%   51% 52%   53.5%
Labor 49%   49% 48%   46.5%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Feb 9, 2016

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016
Total approve 51%   36% 83% 33% 38%   47% 56% 56% 51%
Total disapprove 27%   43% 9% 46% 40%   17% 20% 23% 25%
Strongly approve 8%   3% 17% 8%   11% 12% 13% 9%
Approve 43%   33% 66% 33% 30%   36% 44% 43% 42%
Disapprove 18%   30% 7% 32% 20%   11% 14% 16% 16%
Strongly disapprove 9%   13% 2% 14% 20%   6% 6% 7% 9%
Don’t know 21%   20% 8% 21% 22%   35% 23% 21% 23%

51% (no change since last month) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 27% (up 2%) disapprove – a net approval rating of +24 (down 2).

83% (up 7%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 9% (down 1%) disapproving. 36% (down 6%) of Labor voters and 33% (up 1%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 58% approve/28% disapprove and women 46% approve/27% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Feb 9, 2016

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 June 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016
Total approve 27%   48% 19% 26% 16%   31% 38% 35% 34% 32% 29% 27% 27%
Total disapprove 48%   26% 68% 54% 58%   27% 40% 39% 39% 45% 50% 47% 47%
Strongly approve 5%   8% 3% 5% 4%   5% 7% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4%
Approve 22%   40% 16% 21% 12%   26% 31% 28% 29% 26% 24% 23% 23%
Disapprove 26%   22% 30% 36% 26%   17% 22% 23% 21% 27% 27% 26% 28%
Strongly disapprove 22%   4% 38% 18% 32%   10% 18% 16% 18% 18% 23% 21% 19%
Don’t know 25%   25% 12% 20% 26%   43% 22% 26% 27% 22% 21% 25% 26%

27% (no change) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 48% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -20 to -21.

48% (down 2%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 26% (down 1%) disapprove.

25% of men and 28% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 58% of men and 40% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Feb 9, 2016

Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 52%   28% 88% 37% 44%   53% 48% 55% 54% 51%
Bill Shorten 15%   36% 2% 24% 6%   17% 19% 14% 15% 18%
Don’t know 33%   35% 10% 39% 50%   30% 33% 31% 31% 31%

52% (up 1%) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 15% (down 3%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

59% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 15% prefer Bill Shorten.

45% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 15% prefer Bill Shorten.

Reasons for tax reform

Feb 9, 2016

There has recently been a lot of talk about tax reform. What do you think is the main reason the Government is considering tax reform? And what do you think is the second reason?

  Total Main reason Second reason   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
To address the budget deficit 58% 44% 14%   53% 68% 61% 57%
To maintain Government services like health and education 30% 12% 18%   27% 40% 20% 24%
To encourage economic growth 26% 9% 17%   24% 32% 29% 18%
To help businesses make bigger profits 14% 8% 6%   21% 4% 31% 22%
To make the tax system fairer 11% 3% 8%   7% 18% 9% 12%
To boost employment 10% 3% 7%   11% 10% 9% 8%
To invest in infrastructure 5% 1% 4%   6% 6% 6% 2%
Don’t know 20% 20% 26%   23% 8% 16% 24%

58% believe that one of the main two reasons the Government is considering tax reform is to address the budget deficit. 30% think it is to maintain Government services and 26% to encourage economic growth. Only 5% think it is to invest in infrastructure and 10% think it is to boost employment.

Liberal/National voters are more likely to think it is to maintain services (40%) and make the system fairer (18%).

21% of Labor voters and 31% of Greens voters think it is to help businesses make bigger profits.

Support for tax reforms

Feb 9, 2016

Would you support or oppose the following tax reforms to raise more funds for Government services and infrastructure?

  Total support Total oppose   Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know   Support July 15
Force multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on Australian earnings 78% 9%   53% 25% 6% 3% 14%   79%
Increase income tax rate for high earners 64% 21%   30% 34% 14% 7% 16%   63%
Remove superannuation tax concessions for high earners 58% 24%   28% 30% 14% 10% 17%   59%
Remove negative gearing 37% 31%   15% 22% 19% 12% 33%   37%
Remove GST exemptions (e.g. on food, education) 32% 55%   14% 18% 23% 32% 13%   33%
Replace stamp duty with land tax 26% 29%   7% 19% 16% 13% 45%   26%
Increase the GST 23% 63%   5% 18% 25% 38% 14%   24%

There was strong majority support for forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on Australian earnings (78%), increasing income tax rate for high earners (64%) and removing superannuation tax concessions for high earners (58%).

There was strong majority opposition to increasing the GST (63%).

These results have not changed since this question was asked in July last year.

  Total support   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Force multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on Australian earnings 78%   81% 85% 84% 74%
Increase income tax rate for high earners 64%   75% 60% 67% 64%
Remove superannuation tax concessions for high earners 58%   69% 59% 64% 57%
Remove negative gearing 37%   40% 39% 39% 36%
Remove GST exemptions (e.g. on food, education) 32%   29% 44% 16% 27%
Replace stamp duty with land tax 26%   26% 28% 23% 34%
Increase the GST 23%   14% 38% 21% 18%

All voter groups strongly supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on Australian earnings.

Liberal/National voters were more likely to support removing GST exemptions (44%) and increasing the GST (38%).

Labor voters were more likely to support increasing income tax rate for high earners (75%) and removing superannuation tax concessions for high earners (69%).

Income tax or GST

Feb 9, 2016

Q. To raise more Government revenue to maintain services and reduce debt, which of the following actions would you favour most?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2015
Increase income taxes 29%   39% 21% 42% 30%   27%
Increase the GST 22%   16% 37% 14% 13%   26%
Expand the GST to cover food, health and education 12%   12% 16% 8% 9%   14%
Don’t know 37%   33% 26% 36% 48%   33%

 

 

To raise more Government revenue to maintain services and reduce debt, 29% favoured increasing income taxes, 22% favoured increasing the GST, and 12% expanding the coverage of the GST. This indicates a small shift away from making changes to the GST since this question was asked in November.

 

Liberal/National voters (37%) were more inclined to favour increasing the GST while Labor voters (39%) and Greens voters (42%) favoured increasing income tax.

 

 

 

Increasing the GST

Feb 9, 2016

 Q. Would you support or oppose increasing the GST if income taxes were reduced at the same time?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jul 2015
Total support 38%   31% 58% 24% 30%   38%
Total oppose 40%   50% 28% 58% 51%   42%
Strongly support 11% 8% 19% 3% 5% 10%
Support 27% 23% 39% 21% 25% 28%
Oppose 21% 23% 19% 32% 21% 23%
Strongly oppose 19% 27% 9% 26% 30% 19%
Don’t know 22% 20% 15% 18% 19% 20%

38% support increasing the GST if income taxes were reduced at the same time and 40% oppose. These results are similar to when this question was asked in July last year.

A majority (58%) of Liberal/National voters support increasing GST and a majority of Labor (50%) and Greens voters (58%) oppose.

For those on higher incomes ($1,600+ pw), 47% support and 35% oppose.

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