Federal voting intention

Jul 19, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

12/7/16

2 weeks ago

5/7/16

4 weeks ago

21/6/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 35%   37% 38% 37%    
National 4%   4% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 39%   41% 41% 40%   45.6%
Labor 36%   36% 37% 37%   33.4%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   3% 2% 4%  
Other/Independent 10%   10% 10% 9%   12.4%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   49% 50% 49%   53.5%
Labor 51%   51% 50% 51%   46.5%

NB. Sample = 1,833. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

State of the economy

Jul 19, 2016

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2012 Apr 2013 Apr 2014 Mar 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016
Total good 30%   26% 44% 26% 14%   35% 45% 38% 27% 28% 32%
Total poor 26%   30% 18% 20% 41%   29% 26% 24% 33% 31% 27%
Very good 4%   4% 4% 5% 1%   6% 8% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Good 26%   22% 40% 21% 13%   29% 37% 35% 24% 24% 29%
Neither good nor poor 41%   42% 36% 48% 43%   33% 28% 34% 36% 36% 37%
Poor 20%   23% 16% 16% 29%   20% 17% 19% 24% 24% 21%
Very poor 6%   7% 2% 4% 12%   9% 9% 5% 9% 7% 6%
Don’t know 4%   2% 2% 5% 2%   2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 

30% described the economy as good or very good and 26% poor/very poor – 41% said it was neither. This represents little change since April.

Liberal National voters were substantially more optimistic than other voters. Among Labor voters 26% (up 3%) thought it was good and 30% (down 1%) poor; for Liberal/National voters 44% (down 5%) said it was good and 18% (down 1%) poor.

Economy heading in right or wrong direction

Jul 19, 2016

Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2010 May 2011 Jun 2012 Apr 2013 Apr 2014 May 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016
The right direction 33% 22% 59% 18% 21% 51% 45% 43% 36% 39% 35% 30% 32%
The wrong direction 35% 47% 20% 44% 46% 25% 29% 32% 39% 34% 40% 38% 37%
Don’t know 31% 31% 21% 38% 33% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 25% 31% 31%

33% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction and 35% think it is heading in the wrong direction. This represents little change since April.

22% (no change) of Labor voters, 59% (up 3%) of Liberal/National voters and 18% (up 5%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 47% (up 1%) of Labor voters, 20% (no change) of Liberal/National voters and 44% (down 13%) of Greens voters think it is heading in the wrong direction.

Economic Conditions in Australia

Jul 19, 2016

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2008 Oct 2009 Oct 2010 Oct 2011 Aug

2012

Sep

2013

Sep 2015
Get Better 27%   21% 41% 18% 15%   21% 66% 40% 16% 22% 38% 16%
Get Worse 41%   50% 26% 48% 55%   61% 15% 30% 58% 45% 33% 59%
Get a lot better 4% 2% 7% 1% 2% 8% 6% 2% 3% 7% 3%
Get a little better 23% 19% 34% 18% 14% 19% 58% 34% 14% 19% 31% 13%
Get a little worse 30% 34% 25% 38% 33% 45% 11% 20% 41% 30% 23% 39%
Get a lot worse 11% 16% 1% 10% 22% 16% 4% 10% 17% 15% 10% 20%
Stay much the same 25% 25% 27% 27% 24% 13% 15% 24% 22% 27% 19% 18%
No opinion 7% 3% 5% 7% 6% 5% 4% 6% 4% 6% 10% 7%

 27% of Australians believe that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get better and 41% believe they will get worse.

Labor (50%) and Greens (48%) voters were more likely than Coalition voters (26%) to think that economic conditions in Australia would get worse over the next 12 months.

Since the last time this question was asked in September 2015, the percentage of Australians who believe economic conditions will get better has risen from 16% to 27%.

Best leader of the Liberal Party

Jul 19, 2016

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jun 2014 Feb 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 30%   23% 50% 17% 17%   31% 24% 24% 37% 42% 39%
Tony Abbott 9%   6% 13% 4% 11%   18% 11% 18% 9% 9% 9%
Julie Bishop 16%   16% 17% 20% 18%   4% 21% 17% 14% 13% 12%
Christopher Pyne 3%   3% 1% 1% 8%   <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Scott Morrison 3%   2% 5% 2% 5%   1% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2%
Someone else 19%   27% 5% 25% 27%   19% 13% 13% 10% 9% 15%
Don’t know 21%   22% 10% 31% 15%   21% 24% 22% 21% 22% 21%

 30% (down 9% since March) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 16% prefer Julie Bishop (up 4%) and 9% prefer Tony Abbott (no change). 19% (up 4%) prefer someone else.

Among Liberal/National voters, 50% (down 3%) prefer Malcolm Turnbull, 13% (down 4%) prefer Tony Abbott and 17% (up 6%) Julie Bishop.

Preferences of men were Malcolm Turnbull 31% (-12%), Tony Abbott 9% (-3%) and Julie Bishop 17% (+9%).

Preferences of women were Malcolm Turnbull 28% (-7%), Julie Bishop 15% (-2%) and Tony Abbott 8% (+2%).

Best leader of the Labor Party

Jul 19, 2016

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016
Bill Shorten 27%   51% 16% 19% 15%   16% 13% 15%
Anthony Albanese 11%   11% 13% 10% 14%   12% 14% 14%
Tanya Plibersek 12%   12% 12% 23% 15%   13% 14% 14%
Chris Bowen 3%   2% 4% 3% 5%   5% 3% 7%
Someone else 17%   6% 22% 12% 29%   18% 17% 18%
Don’t know 30%   17% 34% 33% 22%   36% 38% 32%

 27% (up 12% since March) think Bill Shorten would make the best leader of the Labor Party, 12% (down 2%) prefer Tanya Plibersek and 11% (down 3%) Anthony Albanese. 17% prefer someone else and 30% don’t know.

Among Labor voters, 51% (up 24%) prefer Bill Shorten, 12% (-3%) Tanya Plibersek and 11% (-6%) Anthony Albanese.

Preferences of men were Bill Shorten 29% (+11%), Tanya Plibersek 14% (+4%) and Anthony Albanese 13% (-4%).

Preferences of women were Bill Shorten 25% (+13%), Tanya Plibersek 11% (-7%) and Anthony Albanese 9% (-2%).

Greyhound racing

Jul 19, 2016

Q. Would you support or oppose a national ban on greyhound racing?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   NSW Vic   Mar 2015
Total support 55%   57% 51% 71% 52%   55% 54%   48%
Total oppose 27%   28% 30% 18% 33%   27% 29%   26%
Strongly support 28%   33% 20% 44% 26%   27% 29%   23%
Support 27%   24% 31% 27% 26%   28% 25%   25%
Oppose 19%   18% 23% 12% 23%   17% 23%   19%
Strongly oppose 8%   10% 7% 6% 10%   10% 6%   7%
Don’t know 19%   16% 19% 11% 15%   18% 18%   26%

 55% would support a national ban on greyhound racing and 27% would oppose. 19% did not have an opinion. This represents an increase in support for a national ban on greyhound racing since this question was asked in March last year.

Those most likely to support a ban were Greens voters (71%), income over $2,000 pw (62%) and those with a university education (62%). Views of those from NSW and Victoria were similar to the national sample.

Senate voting

Jul 19, 2016

Q. Do you think the changes made to Senate voting prior to the election made voting for the Senate in this election easier or more difficult?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total easier 19%   20% 18% 22% 23%
Total more difficult 37%   39% 43% 33% 29%
Much easier 5%   5% 4% 5% 6%
Easier 14%   15% 14% 17% 17%
More difficult 24%   25% 28% 21% 20%
Much more difficult 13%   14% 15% 12% 9%
Made no difference 25%   25% 27% 20% 32%
Not sure 16%   14% 11% 22% 16%
Didn’t vote 4%   2% 1% 3% 1%

19% thought that the changes to Senate voting made voting easier and 37% thought it made voting more difficult.

Those most likely to think it made voting more difficult were aged 65+ (50%), aged 55-64 (43%) and those who had not completed year 12 (43%).

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