Federal voting intention

Jun 20, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 13/6/17 2 weeks ago 6/5/17 4 weeks ago 23/5/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 35%   35% 36% 34%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 38%   38% 39% 37%   42.0%
Labor 35%   36% 37% 37%   34.7%
Greens 9%   10% 10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 9%   8% 6% 6%    
Other/Independent 5%   5% 6% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   48% 48% 46%   50.4%
Labor 52%   52% 52% 54%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,790. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   May 2017 Apr 2017 Mar 2017 Feb 2017 Jan 2017 Dec 2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total Approve 36% 22% 69% 22% 17%   37% 35% 33% 34% 37% 34% 38% 56%
Total Disapprove 45% 64% 20% 57% 68%   48% 47% 50% 49% 48% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 5% 4% 10% 1% 2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 31% 18% 59% 21% 15% 32% 30% 28% 29% 31% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 28% 39% 16% 39% 39% 29% 29% 30% 28% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 17% 25% 4% 18% 29% 19% 18% 20% 21% 18% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 19%   15% 12% 21% 15%   15% 17% 18% 16% 16% 20% 21% 21%

36% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (down 1% from last month), and 45% disapproved (down 3% from last month).

69% of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 22% of ALP and Greens voters.

Bill Shorten

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2017 Apr 2017 Mar 2017 Feb 2017 Jan 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 34%   60% 24% 32% 17%   34% 33% 30% 30% 37% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 43%   20% 61% 39% 66%   45% 46% 49% 47% 44% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 5%   10% 2% 1% 3%   6% 5% 4% 5% 7% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 29%   50% 22% 31% 14%   28% 28% 26% 25% 30% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 28%   17% 38% 32% 33%   26% 26% 26% 27% 25% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 15%   3% 23% 7% 33%   19% 20% 23% 20% 19% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 23%   20% 14% 29% 18%   22% 22% 22% 22% 20% 25% 25% 26%

34% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Prime Minister (no change from last month), and 43% disapproved (down 2%).

60% of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 32% of Greens voters and 24% of Liberal/National voters.

Preferred Prime Minister

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2017 Apr 2017 Mar 2017 Feb 2017 Jan 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 39%   17% 73% 31% 33%   39% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 26%   55% 9% 35% 16%   31% 28% 26% 25% 28% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 34%   28% 18% 34% 51%   30% 32% 36% 36% 33% 33% 32% 31%


39% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make a better Prime Minister (unchanged from last month), and 26% thought Bill Shorten would be better (down 5%). 34% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister (up 4%).

The results were split by party, with 73% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 55% of ALP voters saying the Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters narrowly preferred Bill Shorten (35% preferred) to Turnbull (31%).

Voting Behaviour in a Federal Election

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Thinking about Federal elections, which of the following best describes you how you vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other Nov
2012
I usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally 34%   33% 43% 32% 28% 36%
I always vote for the same party 27%   43% 30% 22% 11% 30%
I don’t have any usual party preference and just decide who to vote for each election on its own 18%   12% 12% 19% 37% 13%
I often switch my vote between Labor and Liberals or Nationals. 6%   5% 9% 2% 5% 9%
I often switch my vote between a major party (Labor or Liberal) and a minor party (e.g. Greens) or an independent 6%   5% 1% 21% 15% 5%
Don’t know 9%   2% 4% 4% 4% 8%

 

34% said they usually vote for the same party but have voted for another party occasionally (down 2% since this question was last asked in November 2012). Liberal/National voters (43%) were more likely to say this than ALP voters (33%) and Greens voters (32%).

27% said they always vote for the same party (down 3%). ALP voters (43%) were more likely to say this than Liberal/National voters (30%) and Greens voters (22%).

Federal Budget

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Thinking about last month’s Federal budget, has the contents of the budget improved or worsened your overall perception of the Government?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Total improved 17%   15% 29% 13% 9%
Total worsened 30%   39% 15% 35% 51%
Much improved 4% 4% 6% 4% 3%
Slightly improved 13% 11% 23% 9% 6%
No difference 40% 39% 48% 42% 33%
Slightly worsened 18%   21% 11% 23% 28%
Much worsened 12%   18% 4% 12% 23%
Don’t know 13% 8% 8% 9% 8%

17% said the Federal budget had improved their overall perception of the Government, and 30% said it had worsened their perception.

Those most likely to say the Federal budget had improved their overall perception of the Government were Liberal/National voters (29%), 18-34 year olds (22%), and those earning over $104k/year (22%).

Those most likely to say the Federal budget had worsened their overall perception of the Government were other party/independent voters (51%), 45-54 year olds (41%), and ALP voters (39%).

Clean Energy Target

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Would you support a clean energy target to support investment in new energy supply and to reduce carbon emissions if it resulted in energy prices increasing by the following amounts?

 

 

Total support Total oppose   Strongly support Support Neither support nor oppose Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
No change to prices 75% 6%   50% 25% 13% 3% 3% 7%
Prices rise by 5% 41% 32%   12% 29% 19% 16% 16% 7%
Prices rise by 10% 21% 50%   6% 15% 21% 22% 28% 8%
Prices rise by 20% 8% 67%   3% 5% 17% 23% 44% 8%
Prices rise by more than 20% 7% 73%   2% 5% 13% 19% 54% 8%

 

75% would support a clean energy target if it did not result in an increase to energy prices, and 41% would support it if the price rise was limited to 5%. A majority would oppose a clean energy target which resulted in any greater increase in energy prices.

18-24 year olds were willing to accept greater increases in energy prices, with 38% supporting a clean energy target which raised prices by 10% and only 28% opposing it, as were Greens voters (48% support and 25% oppose)

Those aged 65+ were less willing to accept any increase in energy prices, with 36% supporting a clean energy target with raised energy prices by 5%, and 44% opposing.

Coal or Renewables

Jun 20, 2017

Q. Would you prefer the construction of a new coal-fired power station, or more investment in renewable sources (such as solar and wind power), to meet Australia’s future energy supply needs?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Prefer coal-fired power plant 18%   12% 26% 1% 30%
Prefer more investment in renewable sources 64%   75% 57% 90% 55%
Don’t know 18%   14% 17% 10% 15%

64% would prefer investment in renewable energy sources to meet future energy supply needs, and 18% would prefer new coal-fired power plants. 18% did not know which they preferred.

Those most likely to prefer investment in renewable energy sources were Greens voters (90% prefer), 18-24 year olds (76%), and ALP voters (75%).

While a majority of all demographic groups preferred more investment in renewable energy sources, those most likely to prefer the construction of new coal-fired power plants were those aged 65+ (31% prefer), other party/independent voters (30%) and Liberal/National voters (26%).

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