Federal voting intention

Jan 17, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   4 weeks ago 20/12/16   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 35%   34%    
National 3%   2%    
Total Liberal/National 38%   37%   42.0%
Labor 37%   37%   34.7%
Greens 9%   10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   8%    
Other/Independent 4%   6%   13.1%
2 party preferred          
Liberal National 47%   47%   50.4%
Labor 53%   53%   49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Jan 17, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016
Total approve 37%   20% 76% 13% 12%   56% 45% 38% 35% 38% 36% 34%
Total disapprove 48%   69% 17% 68% 69%   23% 35% 40% 43% 41% 44% 46%
Strongly approve 6% 4% 12% 2% 13% 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 5%
Approve 31% 16% 64% 11% 12% 43% 39% 32% 31% 33% 30% 29%
Disapprove 30% 40% 15% 40% 41% 16% 24% 24% 27% 25% 26% 30%
Strongly disapprove 18% 29% 2% 28% 28% 7% 11% 16% 16% 16% 18% 16%
Don’t know 16% 12% 7% 19% 18% 21% 21% 21% 22% 20% 21% 20%

37% (up 3% from 5 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from -12 to -11. This is Malcolm Turnbull’s highest level of disapproval since becoming Prime Minister.

 

76% (up 11%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 17% (down 3%) disapproving. 20% (up 1%) of Labor voters and 13% (down 11%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 39% approve/52% disapprove and women 35% approve/44% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Jan 17, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016
Total approve 37%   66% 23% 38% 13%   31% 35% 27% 27% 34% 36% 37% 34% 35%
Total disapprove 44%   19% 62% 35% 70%   27% 39% 47% 47% 40% 41% 40% 43% 38%
Strongly approve 7%   14% 3% 6% 3%   5% 7% 4% 3% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6%
Approve 30%   52% 20% 32% 10%   26% 28% 23% 24% 27% 30% 32% 28% 29%
Disapprove 25%   15% 30% 30% 34%   17% 23% 26% 29% 22% 24% 23% 26% 21%
Strongly disapprove 19%   4% 32% 5% 36%   10% 16% 21% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Don’t know 20%   16% 15% 27% 17%   43% 26% 25% 26% 25% 22% 22% 23% 25%

37% (up 2% in last 5 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 44% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -3 to -7.

66% (up 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 19% (up 3%) disapprove.

39% of men and 33% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 48% of men and 40% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Jan 17, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 39%   13% 81% 12% 25%   53% 54% 48% 40% 41% 41% 40% 39%
Bill Shorten 28%   59% 4% 48% 16%   17% 15% 19% 29% 26% 28% 28% 28%
Don’t know 33%   28% 15% 40% 59%   30% 31% 33% 32% 33% 31% 32% 33%

 

 

39% (no change in last 5 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 28% (no change) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

44% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 29% prefer Bill Shorten.

35% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 26% prefer Bill Shorten.

State voting intention – NSW

Dec 21, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2015

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016   Oct-ober Nov-ember Dec-ember
Sample     3,205 3,220 3,769 3,867 3,477   1,154 1,460 863
First preference vote                      
Liberal/National 45.6%   48% 47% 44% 44% 43%   43% 44% 42%
Labor 34.1%   33% 34% 37% 37% 38%   39% 36% 39%
Greens 10.3%   10% 10% 9% 9% 9%   8% 9% 9%
Other/Independent 10.0%   10% 10% 10% 10% 11%   10% 11% 10%
                       
2PP                      
Liberal/National 54.3%   56% 56% 52% 52% 51%   50% 53% 50%
Labor 45.7%   44% 44% 48% 48% 49%   50% 47% 50%

State voting intention – Queensland

Dec 21, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 

  Election

Jan 2015

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016   Oct-ober Nov-ember Dec-ember
Sample     1,873 1,893 2,251 2,386 2,085   701 888 496
First preference vote                      
LNP 41.3%   42% 40% 40% 38% 34%   35% 32% 35%
Labor 37.5%   39% 40% 37% 37% 36%   36% 37% 33%
Greens 8.4%   8% 9% 8% 8% 10%   9% 10% 10%
One Nation           12%   10% 12% 13%
Katter Party 1.9%   3% 2% 3% 2% 2%   2% 2% 1%
Other/Independent 10.9%   8% 10% 12% 15% 7%   8% 7% 7%
                       
2PP                      
LNP 48.9%   50% 48% 49% 47% 46%   46% 44% 47%
Labor 51.1%   50% 52% 51% 53% 54%   54% 56% 53%

 

State voting intention – Victoria

Dec 21, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Nov 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016   Oct-ober Nov-ember Dec-ember
Sample     2,402 2,383 2,803 2,880 2,631   886 1,104 641
First preference vote                      
Liberal/National 42.0%   40% 41% 41% 40% 41%   41% 41% 41%
Labor 38.1%   38% 38% 38% 38% 38%   39% 38% 38%
Greens 11.5%   13% 13% 12% 12% 11%   11% 11% 12%
Other/Independent 8.4%   9% 8% 9% 10% 9%   9% 10% 9%
                       
2PP                      
Liberal/National 48.0%   47% 47% 47% 47% 47%   48% 47% 47%
Labor 52.0%   53% 53% 53% 53% 53%   52% 53% 53%

State voting intention – South Australia

Dec 21, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016
Sample     797 803 912 942 880
First preference vote              
Liberal 44.8%   32% 29% 30% 30% 32%
Labor 35.8%   39% 37% 34% 38% 35%
Greens 8.7%   10% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Nick Xenophon Team       15% 20% 16% 17%
Other/Independent 10.7%   19% 10% 9% 9% 8%
               
2PP              
Liberal 53.0%   46% 46% 49% 46% 49%
Labor 47.0%   54% 54% 51% 54% 51%
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