Federal Voting Intention

Aug 23, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

16/8/16

2 weeks ago

9/8/16

4 weeks ago

26/7/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 36%   36% 37% 35%    
National 3%   3% 2% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 39%   39% 40% 39%   45.6%
Labor 36%   37% 37% 37%   33.4%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   4% 4% 4%  
Other/Independent 12%   11% 10% 11%   12.4%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   48% 48% 49%   53.5%
Labor 51%   52% 52% 51%   46.5%

 

  1. Sample = 1,802. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Party trust to handle issues

Aug 23, 2016

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

  Liberal Labor Don’t know   NET NET

Jun 2016

Security and the war on terrorism 39% 21% 40%   +18 +18
Management of the economy 41% 26% 34%   +15 +12
Controlling interest rates 35% 23% 42%   +12 +12
Managing population growth 33% 23% 44%   +10 +8
Political leadership 35% 26% 39%   +9 +8
Treatment of asylum seekers 32% 26% 41%   +6 +4
Ensuring a quality water supply 28% 28% 43%   -1
Ensuring a fair taxation system 30% 34% 36%   -4 -5
A fair industrial relations system 30% 38% 32%   -8 -11
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 29% 37% 34%   -8 -12
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 30% 38% 32%   -8 -13
Ensuring a quality education for all children 29% 37% 34%   -8 -14
Housing affordability 25% 35% 40%   -10 -8
Addressing climate change 25% 35% 40%   -10 -10
Protecting the environment 24% 35% 40%   -11 -12

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war on terrorism (+18), management of the economy (+15) and controlling interest rates (+12).

The Labor Party is trusted more to handle protecting the environment (-11), addressing climate change (-10) and housing affordability (-10).

Since this question was asked in June, The Liberal Party has improved its position against Labor on ensuring the quality of the health system (up 5) and ensuring a quality education for all children (up 6).

Important issues

Aug 23, 2016

Q. Which of the following issues are the most important for the Federal Government to address over the next 12 months?

  Total   Most import-ant 2nd most import-ant 3rd most import-ant   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Dec 2014 Change
Improving our health system 45% 16% 17% 12% 51% 40% 39% 47%   47% -2
National security and terrorism 37% 15% 12% 10% 27% 50% 17% 41%   23% +14
Reducing unemployment 31% 11% 9% 11% 34% 28% 10% 33%   37% -6
Tax avoidance by big companies 31% 10% 11% 10% 38% 26% 28% 36%   27% +4
Housing affordability 31% 11% 9% 11% 37% 24% 35% 25%   22% +9
Reducing the budget deficit 30% 12% 9% 9% 23% 44% 12% 36%   32% -2
More funds for education 20% 4% 7% 9% 23% 17% 27% 16%   23% -3
Protecting workers wages and conditions 18% 5% 6% 7% 23% 12% 15% 21%   24% -6
Addressing climate change 18% 6% 6% 6% 20% 10% 55% 13%   20% -2
Investing in public transport 14% 3% 4% 7% 10% 17% 12% 16%   14%
Protecting the environment 14% 4% 4% 6% 15% 7% 40% 15%   13% +1
Investing in roads 7% 2% 2% 3% 5% 10% 2% 11%   10% -3
Free trade agreements 5%   1% 2% 2% 2% 7% 4% 4% 6% -1

The most important issues for the Federal Government to address over the next 12 months were improving our health system (45%), national security and terrorism (37%), reducing unemployment (31%), tax avoidance by big companies (31 and housing affordability (31%).

For Labor voters the most important issues were improving our health system (51%), tax avoidance by big companies (38%) and housing affordability (37%).

For Liberal/National voters the most important issues were national security and terrorism (50%), reducing the budget deficit (44%) and improving our health system (40%).

For Greens voters the most important issues were addressing climate change (55%), protecting the environment (40%) and improving our health system (39%).

Since this question was asked in December 2014, there have been increases for national security and terrorism (up 14%) and housing affordability (up 9%) and decreases for reducing unemployment (down 6%) and protecting workers wages and conditions (down 6%).

Climate change

Aug 23, 2016

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2009 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Dec 2014 Nov 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016
Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 57%   71% 44% 90% 45%   53% 45% 50% 48% 52% 57% 56% 63% 59%
We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 26%   16% 38% 5% 36%   34% 36% 39% 39% 36% 29% 32% 27% 28%
Don’t know 17%   13% 17% 5% 19%   13% 19% 12% 13% 12% 14% 12% 10% 13%

57% (down 2% since June) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 26% (down 2%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 70%/13% and those aged 55+ split 45%/40%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 64%/21%.

Doing enough to address climate change

Aug 23, 2016

Q. As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Climate change is happening   Aug 2015 Mar 2016
Doing enough 22%   15% 36% 5% 23%   11%   24% 21%
Not doing enough 52%   66% 36% 92% 46%   76%   53% 57%
Doing too much 8%   3% 12% 3% 13%   2%   7% 8%
Don’t know 18%   15% 17% 1% 17%   10%   16% 13%

52% (down 5% since March) think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change and 22% (up 1%) think Australia is doing enough.

Those most likely to think Australia is not doing enough were aged 18-34 (65%) and university educated (57%).

Of those who believe climate change is happening, 76% think Australia is not doing enough.

Foreign investment

Aug 23, 2016

Q. Do you think the following types of foreign investment are good or bad for the Australian economy?

  Total good Total bad   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Foreign investment in mining 27% 28%   6% 21% 29% 17% 11% 15%
Foreign investment in ports 23% 37%   5% 18% 25% 21% 16% 16%
Foreign investment in agriculture 21% 44%   6% 15% 22% 22% 22% 14%
Foreign investment in infrastructure e.g. electricity 19% 45%   5% 14% 21% 21% 24% 14%
Foreign investment in real estate 14% 54%   3% 11% 20% 23% 31% 12%

 

  Total good Total bad   Vote Labor good Vote Labor bad Vote LNP good Vote LNP bad Vote Green good Vote Green bad Vote other good Vote other bad
Foreign investment in mining 27% 28%   23% 33% 37% 24% 19% 38% 23% 42%
Foreign investment in ports 23% 37%   19% 37% 31% 35% 14% 38% 18% 51%
Foreign investment in agriculture 21% 44%   19% 42% 29% 42% 11% 51% 13% 62%
Foreign investment in infrastructure e.g. electricity 19% 45%   18% 46% 25% 44% 13% 54% 14% 57%
Foreign investment in real estate 14% 54%   14% 51% 19% 56% 9% 62% 10% 65%

By a factor of more than two to one, respondents think foreign investment in real estate (54%), infrastructure (45%) and agriculture (44%) is bad for the Australian economy.

They were also more likely to think foreign investment in ports is bad for the economy (37% bad/23% good) but split on foreign investment in mining – 27% good/28% bad/ 29% neither.

While Liberal/National voters had a more positive view of foreign investment overall, they were still more likely to think it was bad for agriculture (42%), infrastructure (44%) and especially real estate (56%).

Same sex marriage

Aug 23, 2016

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2010 Jul 2011 Sep 2012 Oct 2013 Jun 2014 Oct 2015 Mar 2016 Jul 2016
Should be allowed to marry 62%   72% 53% 92% 48%   53% 54% 55% 57% 60% 59% 64% 58%
Should not be allowed to marry 27%   20% 35% 5% 41%   36% 35% 36% 31% 28% 30% 26% 28%
Don’t know 12%   85 12% 3% 10%   11% 11% 9% 12% 12% 11% 10% 14%

62% (up 4% since July) agreed that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 27% (down 1%) think they should not.

Support for same sex marriage is 56% among men and 67% among women. 71% of under 35’s support same sex marriage – while those aged 65+ split 47% in favour/39% against.

Funding plebiscite campaigns

Aug 23, 2016

Q. As part of the national plebiscite on same-sex marriage, it has been proposed that tax-payer funding be provided for advertising for both the in favour and against campaigns.

Do you approve or disapprove of the Government providing funding for campaign costs in the lead-up to the vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Should be allowed to marry Should not be allowed to marry
Total approve 25%   26% 30% 23% 16%   30% 17%
Total disapprove 62%   62% 61% 68% 72%   57% 78%
Strongly approve 7%   10% 7% 5% 4%   9% 3%
Approve 18%   16% 23% 18% 12%   21% 14%
Disapprove 23%   23% 25% 20% 21%   24% 21%
Strongly disapprove 39%   39% 36% 48% 51%   33% 57%
Don’t know 13%   11% 10% 10% 12%   12% 5%

62% disapprove of the Government providing funding for campaign costs for the same-sex marriage plebiscite and 25% approve.

Those most likely to disapprove were aged 55 (73%).

78% of those opposed to same-sex marriage disapproved compared to 57% of those in favour.

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