State voting intention – Queensland

Oct 12, 2017

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Jan 2015

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017   July August Sept-ember
Sample 1,873 1,893 2,251 2,386 2,085 1,963 2,321 2,319   712 884 723
First preference vote                    
LNP 41.3% 42% 40% 40% 38% 34% 31% 34% 34% 34% 33% 35%
Labor 37.5% 39% 40% 37% 37% 36% 35% 36% 35% 34% 37% 35%
Greens 8.4% 8% 9% 8% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10% 12% 8% 10%
One Nation 12% 15% 12% 13% 12% 14% 13%
Katter Party 1.9% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 10.9% 8% 10% 12% 15% 7% 8% 8% 6% 7% 7% 5%
 
2PP                
LNP 48.9% 50% 48% 49% 47% 46% 45% 46% 46% 46% 45% 47%
Labor 51.1% 50% 52% 51% 53% 54% 55% 54% 54% 54% 55% 53%

 

State voting intention – Victoria

Oct 12, 2017

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Nov 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017   July August Sept-ember
Sample 2,402 2,383 2,803 2,880 2,631 2,413 2,838 2,859   882 1,130 847
First preference vote                    
Liberal/National 42.0% 40% 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 41% 42% 44% 42% 39%
Labor 38.1% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 40% 41%
Greens 11.5% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 11% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 8.4% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9% 7% 8% 10%
 
2PP                
Liberal/National 48.0% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 48% 49% 48% 46%
Labor 52.0% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 51% 52% 54%

 

State voting intention – South Australia

Oct 12, 2017

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017
Sample     797 803 912 942 880 779 911 948
First preference vote                    
Liberal 44.8%   32% 29% 30% 30% 32% 28% 31% 30%
Labor 35.8%   39% 37% 34% 38% 35% 35% 36% 37%
Greens 8.7%   10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6%
Nick Xenophon Team       15% 20% 16% 17% 18% 19% 18%
Other/Independent 10.7%   19% 10% 9% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10%
                     
2PP                    
Liberal 53.0%   46% 46% 49% 46% 49% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 47.0%   54% 54% 51% 54% 51% 52% 52% 52%

State voting intention – Western Australia

Oct 12, 2017

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2017

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017
Sample     946 931 1,105 1,115 1,035 1,023 1,205 1,212
First preference vote                    
Liberal 31.2%   37% 40% 37% 34% 34% 32% 33% 32%
National 5.4%   6% 4% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 4%
Labor 42.2%   35% 34% 39% 39% 36% 37% 44% 39%
Greens 8.9%   12% 12% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 12%
One Nation 4.9%             11% 5% 8%
Other/Independent 7.4%   10% 10% 10% 12% 13% 6% 6% 6%
                     
2PP                    
Liberal/National na   51% 52% 49% 47% 49% 48% 45% 46%
Labor na   49% 48% 51% 53% 51% 52% 55% 54%

Federal voting intention

Oct 9, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 3/10/17 2 weeks ago 26/9/17 4 weeks ago 12/9/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 33% 33% 33% 33%
National 3% 3% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 36%   36% 37% 36%   42.0%
Labor 38%   38% 37% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 10% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 2% 3% 3% 2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 7% 7% 9%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 6% 6% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 46%   46% 47% 46%   50.4%
Labor 54%   54% 53% 54%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,846. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total Approve 42% 29% 74% 26% 27%   41% 36% 33% 34% 38% 56%
Total Disapprove 43% 58% 19% 58% 62%   46% 45% 50% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 10% 7% 19% 10% 3% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 32% 22% 55% 16% 24% 34% 31% 28% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 28% 34% 17% 39% 37% 28% 28% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 15% 24% 2% 19% 25% 18% 17% 20% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 15%   13% 7% 16% 11%   14% 19% 18% 20% 21% 21%

42% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (up 1% from last month), and 43% disapproved (down 3%) – a change in net approval rating from -5 to -1. This is his best net rating since June last year – and his highest approval figure since March last year.

74% (down 1%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 29% of ALP voters and 26% of Greens voters.

By gender, men were 45% approve/46% disapprove and women 39% approve/40% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 37% 64% 25% 38% 17%   36% 34% 30% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 44% 20% 62% 40% 75%   47% 43% 49% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 8% 16% 4% 8% 2% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 29% 48% 21% 30% 15% 29% 29% 26% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 27% 18% 33% 33% 39% 25% 28% 26% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 17% 2% 29% 7% 36% 22% 15% 23% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 19%   16% 13% 22% 8%   17% 23% 22% 25% 25% 26%

37% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 1% from last month), and 44% disapproved (down 3%) – a change in net approval rating from -11 to -7.

64% (down 1%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 38% of Greens voters and 25% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 38% approve/49% disapprove and women 36% approve/40% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 42%   14% 79% 29% 44%   43% 39% 38% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 28%   56% 6% 41% 17%   29% 26% 26% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 31%   30% 15% 30% 39%   28% 34% 36% 33% 32% 31%


42% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make a better Prime Minister (down 1% from last month), and 28% thought Bill Shorten would be better (down 1%). 31% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 79% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 56% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (41%) to Turnbull (29%).

46% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 31% prefer Bill Shorten.

37% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 25% prefer Bill Shorten.

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