Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 3, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,936 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 6/5/14

2 weeks ago

20/05/14

Last week

27/5/14

This week

3/6/14

Liberal

 

38%

38%

37%

35%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

40%

40%

40%

38%

Labor

33.4%

38%

40%

39%

39%

Greens

8.6%

10%

8%

9%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

5%

5%

5%

6%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago 6/5/14

2 weeks ago

20/05/14

Last week

27/5/14

This week

3/6/14

Liberal National

53.5%

48%

48%

48%

47%

Labor

46.5%

52%

52%

52%

53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Level of Cuts

Jun 3, 2014

Q. Do you think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, not enough or about the right amount?

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

19 May

Cut spending too much

48%

72%

18%

66%

56%

41%

Not cut spending enough

11%

6%

21%

3%

12%

15%

Cut spending about right amount

21%

4%

49%

11%

11%

26%

Don’t know

19%

17%

12%

20%

21%

18%

48% think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, 21% think it has cut the right amount and 11% think it has not cut spending enough. Over the last two weeks (since this question was asked immediately after the budget) the proportion thinking the budget has cut too much has increased 7% and decreased for both cut the right amount (down 5%) and not cut enough (down 4%).

72% of Labor voters (up 3%), 66% of Greens voters (up 11%) and 56% of others (up 8%) think that the Federal Budget had cut spending by too much. 49% of Liberal-National voters (down 6%) think that spending had been cut by the right amount.

Opposition vote on the budget

Jun 3, 2014

Q. Do you think the Labor Opposition should vote to block the whole budget, vote against certain parts of the budget or pass the whole budget?

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Block the budget

18%

34%

1%

20%

21%

Vote against some parts of the budget

53%

60%

41%

64%

66%

Pass the whole budget

18%

1%

48%

8%

5%

Don’t know

11%

4%

10%

9%

9%

53% think the Labor Opposition should vote against some parts of the budget, 18% think they should block the whole budget and 18% think they should pass the whole budget.

A substantial majority of Labor voters (60%), Greens voters (64%) and other voters (66%) think that Labor should vote against some parts of the budget. 48% of Liberal/National voters think Labor should pass the whole budget but 41% think they should vote against some parts.

Opposition vote on specific budget issues

Jun 3, 2014

Q. Do you think the Labor Opposition should vote for or against the following budget decisions?

Vote for

Vote against

Don’t know

A 2% deficit levy on earnings over $180,000

73%

13%

14%

Foreign aid frozen at current levels for two years, helping save $7.6 billion over five years

65%

22%

12%

University graduates to repay HELP debt once they earn $50,638 (reduced from $53,345)

64%

25%

11%

A six-month waiting period for those under-30 before they can access the dole (Newstart)

47%

41%

12%

Cut 16,500 full-time jobs from the public service in the next 3 years

36%

49%

15%

A $120M cut to the ABC’s budget

32%

47%

21%

$7 Medicare co-payment for all visits to the GP, with this money to be used to fund a Medical Research Future Fund.

32%

61%

8%

Cut public funding for university courses by 20%

28%

57%

16%

Eligibility for the age pension to rise to 70 by 2035

27%

62%

10%

Deregulation of university fees (meaning universities can set their own tuition fees)

23%

63%

15%

A majority think that Labor should vote for the 2% deficit levy (73%), freezing foreign aid (65%) and reducing the income level at which students repay debt (64%).

A majority think that Labor should vote against deregulation of university fees (63%), raising the pension age (62%), the $7 Medicare copayment (61%) and cutting university funding (57%).

They were more divided over the other issues, but tended to support the six-month waiting period for under 30’s to access the dole (47% for/41% against) and tended to oppose cutting the public service (36%/49%) and cutting funds to the ABC (32%/47%).

Blocking the budget

Jun 3, 2014

Q. Would you support or oppose the Labor Opposition blocking the budget and forcing a new election?

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total support

47%

84%

9%

64%

45%

Total oppose

40%

8%

82%

19%

41%

Strongly support

27%

52%

4%

34%

25%

Support

20%

32%

5%

30%

20%

Oppose

18%

7%

27%

14%

28%

Strongly oppose

22%

1%

55%

5%

13%

Don’t know

14%

8%

10%

17%

13%

47% said they would support the Labor Opposition blocking the budget and forcing a new election and 40% said they were opposed.

A substantial majority of Labor voters (84%) and Greens voters (64%) supported forcing a new election.

Party Trust to Handle Issues

Jun 3, 2014

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

 

Difference

3 June 14

Difference 11 Feb 14

Management of the economy

28%

41%

4%

28%

-13

-19

Ensuring a quality education for all children

43%

28%

6%

23%

+15

+7

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

41%

28%

7%

24%

+13

+2

Protecting the environment

20%

18%

40%

22%

+22

+15

A fair industrial relations system

40%

29%

6%

26%

+11

+5

Political leadership

28%

34%

5%

33%

-6

-13

Addressing climate change

22%

20%

32%

26%

+12

+3

Controlling interest rates

28%

40%

3%

29%

-12

-17

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

40%

28%

5%

27%

+12

+2

Ensuring a quality water supply

21%

26%

25%

28%

-5

-10

Housing affordability

31%

27%

6%

35%

+4

-2

Ensuring a fair taxation system

32%

33%

6%

29%

-1

-6

Security and the war on terrorism

23%

39%

5%

33%

-16

-16

Treatment of asylum seekers

20%

37%

14%

29%

-17

-16

Managing population growth

21%

31%

9%

38%

-10

-11

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle management of the economy (-13), controlling interest rates (-12), security and the war on terrorism (-16) and treatment of asylum seekers (-17). The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (+15), ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system  (+13), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+12) and a fair industrial relations system (+11).

Since this question was asked in February, the Labor Party has improved its position on most issues – especially the quality of the health system (up 11), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (up 10) and education (up 8).

Best leader of the Liberal Party

Jun 3, 2014

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

 

Total

 

Male

Female

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Vote other

29 Jul 13

23 Apr 12

30 May 11

28 Feb 11

27 Sep 10

Tony Abbott

18%

21%

15%

3%

43%

2%

13%

17%

23%

22%

24%

26%

Malcolm Turnbull

31%

33%

28%

37%

27%

35%

28%

37%

30%

25%

18%

20%

Joe Hockey

6%

7%

5%

2%

11%

5%

5%

10%

14%

17%

16%

15%

Julie Bishop

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

5%

3%

5%

3%

4%

5%

Christopher Pyne

<1%

<1%

<1%

na

na

na

na

na

Scott Morrison

1%

1%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

na

na

na

na

na

Andrew Robb

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

*

1%

1%

1%

na

Someone else

19%

18%

21%

28%

5%

25%

28%

12%

12%

13%

14%

na

Don’t know

21%

16%

27%

24%

10%

30%

21%

19%

16%

19%

22%

33%

31% (down 6% since July last year) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 6% (down 4%) Joe Hockey. Note the previous poll was taken prior to the 2013 election when the Liberal Party were in Opposition.

Among Liberal/National voters, 43% (up 7%) prefer Tony Abbott, 27% (down 8%) Malcolm Turnbull and 11% (down 2%) Joe Hockey.

Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% (down 6%) of men and 28% (down 8%) of women, Tony Abbott by 21% (no change) of men and 15% (up 1%) of women.

State voting intention – NSW

May 30, 2014

About this poll

This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online over 4 weeks to 27th May 2014.

Sample sizes were NSW 1,293, Queensland 737 and Victoria 1,005.

The results are compared with results from previous polls.

The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 7.

Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary.

NSW

Election

Mar 2011

 

Nov-
Dec 12

Mar 13

Nov 13

Dec 13

Jan
14

Feb
14

Mar 14

Apr
14

May 14

Sample

 

1,386

1,044

1,275

973

1,121

1,258

1,259

1,587

1,293

First preference vote

 

Liberal/National

51.1%

51%

49%

49%

44%

48%

47%

46%

46%

42%

Labor

25.6%

31%

33%

33%

36%

33%

36%

37%

36%

38%

Greens

10.3%

8%

9%

8%

9%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

Palmer United Party

4%

3%

2%

2%

3%

3%

Other/Independent

13.0%

10%

9%

10%

7%

7%

7%

8%

7%

7%

2PP
Liberal/National

64.2%

60%

57%

58%

53%

57%

55%

54%

54%

51%

Labor

35.8%

40%

43%

42%

47%

43%

45%

46%

46%

49%

 

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