State voting intention – Western Australia

Dec 21, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2013

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016
Sample     946 931 1,105 1,115 1,035
First preference vote              
Liberal 47.1%   37% 40% 37% 34% 34%
National 6.1%   6% 4% 5% 4% 6%
Labor 33.1%   35% 34% 39% 39% 36%
Greens 8.4%   12% 12% 10% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 5.3%   10% 10% 10% 12% 13%
               
2PP              
Liberal/National 57.3%   51% 52% 49% 47% 49%
Labor 42.7%   49% 48% 51% 53% 51%

Federal voting intention

Dec 20, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

13/12/16

2 weeks ago

6/12/16

4 weeks ago

22/11/16

  Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 34% 34% 35% 36%
National 2% 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 37%   37% 38% 38%   42.0%
Labor 37%   37% 36% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10% 9% 9% 10% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3% 3% 3% 3%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8% 7% 8% 6%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 6% 6% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 47%   47% 48% 48%   50.4%
Labor 53%   53% 52% 52%   49.6%

NB. Sample = 1,779. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Last 12 months

Dec 20, 2016

Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

  Total good Total bad NET   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know 2013 NET 2014 NET 2015 NET
The Australian economy 17% 36% -19   2% 15% 40% 30% 6% 6% -13 -13 -11
Australian politics in general 9% 62% -53   1% 8% 24% 40% 22% 5% -62 -53 -41
Large companies and corporations 26% 21% +5 3% 23% 43% 17% 4% 10% -9 +14 +5
Small business 15% 37% -22 2% 13% 38% 30% 7% 10% -45 -28 -12
Trade unions 13% 31% -18 2% 11% 39% 21% 10% 17% -25 -18 -27
The average Australian 18% 36% -18 2% 16% 41% 27% 9% 5% -22 -23 -14
Your personal financial situation 26% 34% -8   2% 24% 38% 23% 11% 3% -8 -11 -6
Your workplace (workers) 37% 25% +12   6% 31% 34% 17% 8% 4% +8 -5 +14
You and your family overall 36% 24% +12   6% 30% 36% 17% 7% 4% +18 +3 +21
The planet 12% 44% -32 2% 10% 37% 29% 15% 7%

Respondents believed that 2016 has been a bad year for all groups except large companies (+5), your workplace (+12) and you and your family overall (+12). It was considered a particularly bad year for Australian politics in general (-53) and the planet (-32).

Relative to 2015 (as measured in December last year), this year was considered worse for politics in general (down 12), small businesses (down 10), you and your family overall (down 9) and the Australian economy (down 8) but better for trade unions (up 9).

Expectations for 2017

Dec 20, 2016

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2017 will be a good or bad year for each of the following?

  Total good Total bad NET   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know   2013 NET 2014 NET 2015 NET
The Australian economy 20% 37% -17   2% 18% 33% 29% 8% 10%   -10 -10 +2
Australian politics in general 13% 50% -37   1% 12% 27% 35% 15% 10%   -24 -29 -5
Large companies and corporations 28% 20% +8   4% 24% 38% 15% 5% 14%   +13 +14
Small business 21% 31% -10   2% 19% 35% 25% 6% 13%   -24 -17 +3
Trade unions 14% 28% -14   2% 12% 38% 20% 8% 19%   -26 -16 -16
The average Australian 19% 31% -12   2% 17% 40% 24% 7% 9%   -9 -17 -2
Your personal financial situation 31% 25% +6   4% 27% 36% 18% 7% 8%   +6 +12
Your workplace (workers) 39% 19% +20   6% 33% 33% 13% 6% 9%   +15 +21
You and your family overall 39% 18% +21   6% 33% 35% 13% 5% 8%   +25 +10 +28
The planet 14% 41% -27%   2% 12% 35% 27% 14% 10%  

Overall, there was a positive outlook for large companies and corporations (net +8), your personal financial situation (+6), your workplace (+20), and you and your family overall (+21). Expectations were especially negative for Australian politics in general (-37) and the planet (-27).

Compared to last year, respondents were more pessimistic about all items measured except for trade unions (up 2) and particularly more pessimistic for Australian politics in general (down 32), small business (down 13) and the average Australian (down 10).

Whether Malcolm Turnbull understands issues

Dec 20, 2016

Q. For each of the following groups of people – do you think the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull understands their issues and is likely to act in their interests?

  Understands their issues and is likely to act in their interests Understands their issues but is unlikely to act in their interests Does not understand their issues Don’t know
Students 11% 31% 38% 20%
Working mothers 14% 27% 40% 18%
Unemployed 14% 25% 45% 16%
Casual and part time workers 14% 29% 40% 17%
Full time workers 20% 37% 25% 17%
People on low incomes 11% 26% 48% 15%
People on high incomes 56% 17% 10% 17%
Pensioners 13% 28% 45% 15%
Self-funded retirees 18% 33% 30% 19%
Small business owners 20% 36% 25% 18%
People who work for small businesses 13% 37% 32% 18%
People who run large corporations 57% 17% 8% 18%
People who work for large corporations 34% 30% 15% 20%

57% think Malcolm Turnbull understands the issues of people who run large corporations and will act in their interests and 56% think he will act in the interests of people on high incomes.

37% think Malcolm Turnbull understands the issues for full time workers and people who work for small businesses but is unlikely to act in their interests. 36% think he understands the issues for small business owners but is unlikely to act in their interests.

People whose issues he does not understand included people on low incomes (48%), pensioners (45%) and the unemployed (45%).

State of the economy

Dec 20, 2016

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2012 Apr 2013 Apr 2014 Mar 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016
Total good 23%   19% 39% 19% 13%   35% 45% 38% 27% 28% 30% 30%
Total poor 36%   40% 24% 35% 59%   29% 26% 24% 33% 31% 26% 27%
Very good 2%   3% 3% 2%   6% 8% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3%
Good 21%   16% 36% 19% 11%   29% 37% 35% 24% 24% 26% 27%
Neither good nor poor 37%   38% 37% 44% 25%   33% 28% 34% 36% 36% 41% 40%
Poor 28%   30% 22% 32% 41%   20% 17% 19% 24% 24% 20% 20%
Very poor 8%   10% 2% 3% 18%   9% 9% 5% 9% 7% 6% 7%
Don’t know 4%   3% 1% 2% 3%   2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

23% (down 7% since September) described the economy as good or very good and 36% (up 9%) poor/very poor – 37% said it was neither.

This is the most negative result for this question over the past 4 years.

Liberal National voters were somewhat more optimistic than other voters. Among Labor voters 19% (down 11%) thought it was good and 40% (up 13%) poor; for Liberal/National voters 39% (up 3%) said it was good and 24% (up 3%) poor.

Economy heading in right or wrong direction

Dec 20, 2016

Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2010 May 2011 Jun 2012 Apr 2013 Apr 2014 May 2015 Jul 2016 Sep 2016
The right direction 26%   18% 50% 11% 11%   51% 45% 43% 36% 39% 35% 33% 33%
The wrong direction 45%   54% 24% 62% 64%   25% 29% 32% 39% 34% 40% 35% 36%
Don’t know 29%   27% 25% 27% 25%   24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 25% 31% 31%

26% (down 7% since September) of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction and 45% (up 9%) think it is heading in the wrong direction. This is the most negative result for this question over the past 6 years.

18% (down 8%) of Labor voters, 50% (down 2%) of Liberal/National voters and 11% (down 15%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 54% (up 9%) of Labor voters, 24% (up 2%) of Liberal/National voters and 62% (up 22%) of Greens voters think it is heading in the wrong direction.

Job security

Dec 20, 2016

Q. In the next two years, do you expect your job to be more secure, less secure or about the same?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Work full time Work part time   Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Sep 2015 Apr 2016 Sep 2016
More Secure 13%   12% 15% 5% 15%   16% 6%   14% 9% 7% 14% 14%
Less secure 30%   35% 22% 40% 40%   27% 35%   31% 29% 28% 31% 27%
Much more secure 4% 5% 4% 1% 5%   5% 1% 5% 3% 2% 5% 5%
Somewhat more secure 9% 7% 11% 4% 10%   11% 5% 9% 6% 5% 9% 9%
About the same 51% 50% 61% 52% 38%   53% 54% 50% 58% 50% 49% 53%
Somewhat less secure 16% 17% 11% 36% 17%   15% 21% 17% 17% 16% 19% 16%
Much less secure 14% 18% 11% 4% 23%   12% 14% 14% 12% 12% 12% 11%
Don’t know 6% 4% 2% 3% 7% 5% 4%   4% 4% 15% 7% 6%

13% of respondents (down 1% since September) feel that their job will become more secure over the next two years. 30% (up 3%) feel it will become less secure while the largest proportion (51%) feel it will stay about the same.

Liberal/National voters were more likely to say their job security would be about the same (61%) and less likely to say it would be less secure (22%).

35% of part time workers say they expect their job to be less secure compared to 27% of full time workers.

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