Leader attributes – comparisons

May 3, 2016
Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Difference
A capable leader 59% 41% +18
Intelligent 77% 60% +17
Good in a crisis 49% 34% +15
More honest than most politicians 39% 26% +13
Out of touch with ordinary people 56% 44% +12
Visionary 41% 29% +12
Arrogant 46% 38% +8
Trustworthy 40% 33% +7
Hard-working 65% 62% +3
Superficial 46% 43% +3
Intolerant 34% 31% +3
Understands the problems facing Australia 52% 50% +2
Narrow-minded 41% 40% +1
Erratic 34% 37% -3
Aggressive 28% 33% -5

Compared to Bill Shorten, Malcolm Turnbull is more likely to be considered a capable leader (+18%), intelligent (+17%) and good in a crisis (+15%) – although these margins have dropped considerably since March.

Federal voting intention

Apr 27, 2016

Q: If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

19/4/16

2 weeks ago

12/4/16

4 weeks ago

29/3/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 36%   38% 39% 39%    
National 4%   4% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 40%   42% 42% 43%   45.6%
Labor 39%   36% 35% 38%   33.4%
Greens 10%   11% 11% 9%   8.6%
Palmer United Party 1%   1% 1% 1%   5.5%
Other/Independent 11%   10% 10% 10%   6.9%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   50% 50% 50%   53.5%
Labor 52%   50% 50% 50%   46.5%

NB: Sample = 1,740. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Apr 27, 2016

Q. The Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said he will call an early double dissolution election because the Senate has not passed legislation to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

Do you approve or disapprove of Malcolm Turnbull calling an early double dissolution election?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   2 weeks ago
Total approve 40%   32% 62% 38% 31%   39%
Total disapprove 28%   38% 15% 45% 32%   24%
Strongly approve 11%   10% 17% 7% 8%   13%
Approve 29%   22% 45% 31% 23%   26%
Disapprove 18%   23% 13% 30% 17%   16%
Strongly disapprove 10%   15% 2% 15% 15%   8%
Don’t know 32%   30% 22% 18% 38%   36%

40% approve of Malcolm Turnbull calling an early double dissolution election and 28% disapprove.

62% of Liberal/National voters approve while other voters are divided. Labor voters (38%) and Greens voters (45%) are a little more likely to disapprove.

There has been little change in opinions about a double dissolution in the last two weeks.

Most likely to win election

Apr 27, 2016

Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal election?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Liberal/National 42%   20% 81% 32% 34%
Labor 28%   58% 6% 33% 16%
Don’t know 29%   22% 13% 35% 50%

42% think the Liberal/National Party are most likely to win the next election and 28% think the Labor Party are most likely to win. 29% could not give an opinion.

81% of Liberal/National voters think their party is most likely to win and 58% of Labor voters think Labor is most likely to win.

Greens voters are evenly divided.

Voting

Apr 27, 2016

Q. When it comes to voting in the next Federal election, which of the following is closest to your view

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
I will vote for the party that I want to lead Australia 67%   73% 81% 57% 53%
I will vote against the party I don’t want to lead Australia 21%   22% 16% 38% 27%
Don’t know 13%   5% 3% 5% 20%

67% say that they will vote for the party that they want to lead Australia and 21% will vote against the party they don’t want to lead Australia.

38% of Greens voters say they are more likely to be voting against the party they don’t want to lead Australia.

Malcolm Turnbull

Apr 27, 2016

Q. Has the re-election of Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party made you more or less likely to support the Liberal National Coalition at the next federal election?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015
Total more likely 35%   24% 55% 42% 21%   34%
Total less likely 23%   31% 14% 20% 35%   14%
Much more likely 11%   7% 20% 5% 7%   15%
A little more likely 24%   17% 35% 37% 14%   19%
A little less likely 9%   8% 10% 7% 11%   5%
Much less likely 14%   23% 4% 13% 24%   9%
Makes no difference 35%   40% 28% 35% 40%   43%
Don’t know 8%   5% 2% 4% 4%   11%

 

 

35% say they are more likely to support the Liberal National Coalition since the re-election of Malcolm Turnbull as leaders and 23% say they are less likely. 35% say it makes no difference.

 

Since this question was asked last year, those saying “less likely” has increased from 14% to 23%.

Budget measures

Apr 27, 2016

Q: Would you support or oppose the following measures being included in the Federal Budget?

  Total support Total oppose   Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
Tighten tax exemptions for capital gains tax 52% 19%   19% 33% 14% 5% 29%
Limit negative gearing 48% 24%   17% 31% 17% 7% 27%
Reduce superannuation tax concessions for high earners 60% 22%   27% 33% 14% 8% 18%
Increase tax on cigarettes 67% 21%   36% 31% 11% 10% 13%
Cut corporate tax 22% 57%   6% 16% 28% 29% 21%
Cut personal income tax 63% 19%   23% 40% 15% 4% 17%
Increase funding to health 83% 7%   47% 36% 5% 2% 10%
Increase funding to education 80% 10%   42% 38% 7% 3% 11%

 

The most supported budget measures were increasing funding to health (83%), increasing funding to education (80%) and increasing tax on cigarettes (67%). A majority (57%) opposed cutting corporate tax.

Labor voters were more likely to support tightening tax exemptions for capital gains (58%) and limiting negative gearing (55%).

Liberal/National voters were more likely to support increasing tax on cigarettes (75%), cutting corporate taxes (31%) and cutting personal income tax (76%).

United Nations Secretary General

Apr 27, 2016

Q: The former Prime Minister of New Zealand, Helen Clark, has said she will run for the position of Secretary General of the United Nations. Former Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, may also run. Who do you think would be the better Secretary General of the UN, Helen Clark or Kevin Rudd?

  Total

 

  Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Helen Clark 45%   36% 55% 56% 52%
Kevin Rudd 21%   34% 17% 12% 14%
Don’t know 34%   30% 28% 32% 34%

45% think that Helen Clark would be a better Secretary General of the UN and 21% think Kevin Rudd would be better. Most voter groups strongly supported Helen Clark while Labor voters were divided – 36% preferring Helen Clark and 34% favouring Kevin Rudd.

61% of those aged 55+ prefer Helen Clark.

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