Federal voting intention

May 17, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

10/5/16

2 weeks ago

3/5/16

4 weeks ago

19/4/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 39%   38% 37% 38%    
National 3%   4% 3% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 42%   42% 40% 42%   45.6%
Labor 38%   38% 38% 36%   33.4%
Greens 9%   10% 10% 11%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   na na na  
Palmer United Party na   1% 1% 1%   5.5%
Other/Independent 8%   9% 10% 10%   6.9%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 49%   49% 48% 50%   53.5%
Labor 51%   51% 52% 50%   46.5%

NB. Sample = 1,787. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

May 17, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Total approve 40%   20% 73% 17% 26%   47% 56% 56% 51% 51% 45% 39%
Total disapprove 42%   64% 17% 71% 61%   17% 20% 23% 25% 27% 35% 39%
Strongly approve 7% 4% 14% 1% 11% 12% 13% 9% 8% 6% 7%
Approve 33% 16% 59% 17% 25% 36% 44% 43% 42% 43% 39% 32%
Disapprove 26% 37% 14% 38% 35% 11% 14% 16% 16% 18% 24% 23%
Strongly disapprove 16% 27% 3% 33% 26% 6% 6% 7% 9% 9% 11% 16%
Don’t know 17% 15% 11% 13% 14% 35% 23% 21% 23% 21% 21% 22%

40% (up 1% since last month) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 42% (up 3%) disapprove – a net approval rating of -2 (down 2).

73% (up 4%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 17% (down 2%) disapproving. 20% (down 1%) of Labor voters and 17% (down 14%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 43% approve/45% disapprove and women 37% approve/40% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

May 17, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 June 2014 Dec 2014 Jun 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Total approve 34%   64% 21% 21% 21%   31% 38% 35% 32% 27% 27% 27% 27% 30%
Total disapprove 43%   15% 64% 56% 61%   27% 40% 39% 45% 47% 47% 48% 47% 44%
Strongly approve 6% 15% 3% 1% 2% 5% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% 5%
Approve 28% 49% 18% 20% 19% 26% 31% 28% 26% 23% 23% 22% 24% 25%
Disapprove 26% 13% 34% 48% 31% 17% 22% 23% 27% 26% 28% 26% 29% 22%
Strongly disapprove 17% 2% 30% 8% 30% 10% 18% 16% 18% 21% 19% 22% 18% 22%
Don’t know 23% 20% 15% 23% 17% 43% 22% 26% 22% 25% 26% 25% 26% 25%

34% (up 4%) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 43% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -14 to -9.

64% (up 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 15% (down 3%) disapprove.

37% of men and 32% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 49% of men and 36% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

May 17, 2016

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 43% 18% 82% 22% 37% 53% 48% 55% 54% 51% 52% 48% 44%
Bill Shorten 28% 57% 7% 39% 17% 17% 19% 14% 15% 18% 15% 19% 22%
Don’t know 29% 25% 12% 40% 46% 30% 33% 31% 31% 31% 33% 33% 34%

43% (down 1%) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 28% (up 6%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

46% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 28% prefer Bill Shorten.

40% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 27% prefer Bill Shorten.

Internships

May 17, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the budget measure announced by the Federal Government last week to introduce internships for young unemployed people which pay $4 per hour for up to 25 hours work per week?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 48%   34% 70% 31% 46%
Total disapprove 32%   48% 14% 52% 40%
Strongly approve 14%   9% 24% 4% 9%
Approve 34%   25% 46% 27% 37%
Disapprove 16%   22% 10% 17% 21%
Strongly disapprove 16%   26% 4% 35% 19%
Don’t know 20%   18% 15% 16% 14%

48% approve of the budget measure announced by the Federal Government last week to introduce internships for young unemployed people which pay $4 per hour for up to 25 hours work per week and 32% disapprove. 70% of Liberal/National voters approve but Greens and Labor bvoters are more likely to disapprove (52% and 48%).

Of those aged under 25, 44% approve and 33% disapprove.

Election campaign

May 17, 2016

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 2nd July which means there will be an 8-week election campaign. Do you think an 8-week election campaign is too long, too short or about right?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Too long 52%   54% 55% 42% 64%
Too short 5%   5% 4% 8% 5%
About right 32%   35% 34% 34% 21%
Don’t know 11%   6% 6% 16% 10%

 52% think that the 8-week election campaign is too long and 32% think it is about right.

More than half of both Labor (54%) and Liberal/National voters (55%) think it is too long.

Interest in election

May 17, 2016

Q. Which of the following statements best describes how much political news and commentary you intend to look at during the election campaign?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
I will be looking at a lot of news and commentary as I am always interested in politics 29%   31% 31% 43% 29%
I ‘m not usually very interested in politics but will be looking at a lot more news and commentary during the election campaign 30%   30% 37% 16% 29%
I’m not very interested in politics so I won’t be reading much more than usual during the election campaign 21%   21% 20% 20% 22%
I don’t like politics at all and will try to avoid looking at any news and commentary during the election campaign 13%   12% 7% 13% 19%
Not sure 8%   6% 5% 8% 1%

29% have high interest in politics and say they will be looking at lot of news and commentary about the election and 30% are not usually very interested but will be looking at a lot of news and commentary during the campaign. 34% have little or no interest.

66% of those aged 55+ will be looking at a lot of news and commentary compared to 50% of those aged under 35.

Social Class

May 17, 2016

Q. Do you believe social classes still exist in Australia? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Income under $1,000pw Income $1,000 – $1,500pw Income $1,500 – $2,000pw Income $2,000+   Aug 2014
Yes 81% 86% 81% 94% 88% 82% 83% 87% 82% 79%
No 8% 4% 13% 1% 7% 7% 7% 9% 11% 7%
Don’t know 11% 10% 6% 5% 5% 11% 10% 4% 7% 14%

81% agreed that social class still exists in Australia – only 8% disagreed.

94% of Greens voters think that social class still exists compared to 81% of Liberal/National voters.

88% of those aged 55+ think that social class still exists compared to 76% of those aged under 35.

However, there was little difference across income groups.

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