State Voting Intention NSW

Jan 9, 2018

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2015

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016
Sample 3,205 3,220 3,769 3,867 3,477
First preference vote  
Liberal/National 45.6% 48% 47% 44% 44% 43%
Labor 34.1% 33% 34% 37% 37% 38%
Greens 10.3% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9%
Other/Independent 10.0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11%
2PP
Liberal/National 54.3% 56% 56% 52% 52% 51%
Labor 45.7% 44% 44% 48% 48% 49%

 

Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017   Oct Nov Dec
3,169 3,757 3,723 3,456   1,442 1,146 868
 
43% 42% 43% 40% 39% 43% 40%
36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 37% 40%
9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9%
12% 11% 10% 11% 11% 10% 11%
 
52% 51% 51% 49% 47% 51% 48%
48% 49% 49% 51% 53% 49% 52%

Labor leads the Liberal/National parties on the two-party preferred vote for the first time since the 2015 election – shifting from 51/49 to the LNP in the September quarter to 51/49 to Labor. On first preferences, the LNP is on 40% (down 5.6% since the election), Labor on 39% (up 4.9%) and Greens 9% (down 1.3%).

State voting intention QLD

Jan 9, 2018

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Nov 2017

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016
Sample 1,873 1,893 2,251 2,386 2,085
First preference vote          
LNP 33.7% 42% 40% 40% 38% 34%
Labor 35.4% 39% 40% 37% 37% 36%
Greens 10.0% 8% 9% 8% 8% 10%
One Nation 13.7% 12%
Katter Party 2.3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 4.9% 8% 10% 12% 15% 7%
2PP      
LNP 48.8% 50% 48% 49% 47% 46%
Labor 51.2% 50% 52% 51% 53% 54%
Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017   Oct-ober Nov-ember Dec-ember
1,963 2,321 2,319 2,205   919 732 554
         
31% 34% 34% 33% 38% 29% 30%
35% 36% 35% 36% 33% 39% 38%
10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 11%
15% 12% 13% 15% 13% 17% 14%
1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5%
           
45% 46% 46% 48% 52% 45% 45%
55% 54% 54% 52% 48% 55% 55%

Labor has maintained their lead on 2PP – which dropped a little to 52/47. First preference votes were Labor 36%, LNP 33%, Greens 10% and One Nation 15% – similar figures to the November election.

However, the monthly figures suggest that Labor is enjoying a post-election boost recording a 55/45 2PP for November and December.

State voting intention VIC

Jan 9, 2018

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Nov 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016
Sample 2,402 2,383 2,803 2,880 2,631
First preference vote          
Liberal/National 42.0% 40% 41% 41% 40% 41%
Labor 38.1% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
Greens 11.5% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11%
Other/Independent 8.4% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9%
2PP      
Liberal/National 48.0% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 52.0% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%
Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017   Oct Nov Dec
2,413 2,838 2,859 2,633   1,096 870 667
         
40% 41% 42% 43% 40% 43% 46%
39% 38% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37%
11% 12% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9%
10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 8%
         
47% 47% 48% 49% 47% 49% 51%
53% 53% 52% 51% 53% 51% 49%

First preference votes were Labor 38%, LNP 43%, Greens 10% – very similar figures to the 2014 election.
Over the last half of 2017 the LNP has closed the 2PP gap on Labor – currently at 51/49 to Labor. However, the monthly figures suggest that the LNP is continuing to make gains, recording a lead of 51/49 in December.

 

 

State voting intention WA

Jan 9, 2018

 Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2017

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017
Sample 946 931 1,105 1,115 1,035 1,023 1,205 1,212 1,145
First preference vote            
Liberal 31.2% 37% 40% 37% 34% 34% 32% 33% 32% 29%
National 5.4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Labor 42.2% 35% 34% 39% 39% 36% 37% 44% 39% 41%
Greens 8.9% 12% 12% 10% 11% 11% 9% 9% 12% 13%
One Nation 4.9% 11% 5% 8% 7%
Other/Independent 7.4% 10% 10% 10% 12% 13% 6% 6% 6% 6%
2PP        
Liberal/National 44.5% 51% 52% 49% 47% 49% 48% 45% 46% 43%
Labor 55.5% 49% 48% 51% 53% 51% 52% 55% 54% 57%

 

Labor has maintained a very strong 2PP lead over the Liberal and National parties since the March election – up 3 points on the previous quarter to 57/43.

On first preference votes Labor is on 41% (down 1.2% since the election), Liberal 29% (down 2.2%), Nationals 4% (down 1.4%) and Greens 13% (up 4.1%).

State voting intention SA

Jan 9, 2018

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017
Sample 797 803 912 942 880 779 911 948 876
First preference vote        
Liberal 44.8% 32% 29% 30% 30% 32% 28% 31% 30% 31%
Labor 35.8% 39% 37% 34% 38% 35% 35% 36% 37% 34%
Greens 8.7% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 8%
Nick Xenophon ‘s SA-Best 15% 20% 16% 17% 18% 19% 18% 22%
Other/Independent 10.7% 19% 10% 9% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 6%
2PP  
Liberal 53.0% 46% 46% 49% 46% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49%
Labor 47.0% 54% 54% 51% 54% 51% 52% 52% 52% 51%

 

On first preference votes Labor is on 34%, Liberals 31%, SA-Best 22% and Greens 8%. SA-Best (formerly Nick Xenophon Team) is up 4 points on the previous quarter.

The 2PP favours Labor 51/49, but is very much dependent on the flow of SA-Best preferences (approximated at 60/40 to the Liberals which is the pollster’s estimate based on current polling).

 

Federal voting intention

Dec 19, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 12/12/17 2 weeks ago 5/12/17 4 weeks ago 21/11/17   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 34%   33% 32% 32%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 37%   35% 35% 35%   42.0%
Labor 38%   38% 38% 38%   34.7%
Greens 9%   10% 9% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 2%   2% 2% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7%   7% 8% 8%    
Other/Independent 7%   7% 8% 7%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 47%   46% 45% 46%   50.4%
Labor 53%   54% 55% 54%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,817. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Political donations

Dec 19, 2017

Q. Would you support or oppose introducing the following requirement concerning political donation?

  Total support Total oppose   Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know Total support (Jun 2017) Total oppose (Jun 2017)
Political donations to be reported immediately by political parties, compared to annual reports at the moment 84% 6% 46% 38% 5% 1% 11% 78% 5%
All politicians to publicly disclose meetings with representatives of companies, donors or unions 82% 5% 44% 38% 4% 1% 12% 79% 6%
A ban on foreign donations 67% 16% 42% 25% 12% 4% 16% 64% 15%
A cap on donations of $5000 59% 20% 27% 32% 16% 4% 22% 61% 15%
A ban on political donations by companies and unions 58% 22% 27% 31% 18% 4% 21% 60% 16%
All donations banned and all political party spending to be taxpayer funded 30% 50%   13% 17% 23% 27% 21% 30% 46%

 

 


 

 

Support by party preference Total support   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Political donations to be reported immediately by political parties, compared to annual reports at the moment 84% 87% 86% 89% 89%
All politicians to publicly disclose meetings with representatives of companies, donors or unions 82% 83% 89% 83% 86%
A ban on foreign donations 67% 66% 74% 68% 75%
A cap on donations of $5000 59% 63% 60% 58% 65%
A ban on political donations by companies and unions 58% 53% 63% 64% 65%
All donations banned and all political party spending to be taxpayer funded 30%   36% 29% 30% 25%

 

 

There was majority support for all listed reforms except taxpayer funding for political parties (30% support/50% oppose).

There was particularly strong support for immediate reporting of donations (84%, up 6% from June) and public disclosure of meetings (82%, up 3%).

There were few major differences by party preference.

Last 12 months

Dec 19, 2017

Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

  Total good Total bad NET   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know   2013 NET 2014 NET 2015 NET 2016 NET
The Australian economy 35% 24% +11   5% 30% 35% 19% 5% 6%   -13 -13 -11 -19
Australian politics in general 18% 54% -36   3% 15% 22% 32% 22% 6%   -62 -53 -41 -53
Large companies and corporations 39% 17% +22   8% 31% 35% 13% 4% 10%   -9 +14 +5 +5
Small business 30% 32% -2   5% 25% 31% 24% 8% 8%   -45 -28 -12 -22
Trade unions 19% 26% -7   5% 14% 39% 18% 8% 17%   -25 -18 -27 -18
The average Australian 28% 34% -6   5% 23% 34% 24% 10% 6%   -22 -23 -14 -18
Your personal financial situation 32% 31% +1   4% 28% 35% 18% 13% 3%   -8 -11 -6 -8
Your workplace (workers) 50% 16% +34   10% 40% 31% 11% 5% 3%   +8 -5 +14 +12
You and your family overall 48% 21% +27   10% 38% 28% 14% 7% 3%   +18 +3 +21 +12
The planet 20% 42% -22   3% 17% 32% 29% 13% 6%     -32

 

 

 

Respondents believed that 2016 has been a relatively good year for large companies (+22), your workplace (+34), you and your family overall (+27) and the Australian economy (+11). It was considered a particularly bad year for Australian politics in general (-36).

 

Relative to 2016 (as measured in December last year), this year was considered substantially better on all measures – but especially for the economy (up 30), small business (up 20) and your workplace (up 22).

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