Federal politics – voting intention

May 12, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,773 respondents  

First preference/leaning to Election 7 Sep 13   4 weeks ago14/4/15 2 weeks ago 28/4/15 Last week5/5/15 This week 12/5/15
Liberal   37% 36% 37% 38%
National 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 45.6% 41% 40% 40% 41%
Labor 33.4% 39% 39% 39% 39%
Greens 8.6% 10% 10% 10% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 8%

 

2 Party Preferred Election 7 Sep 13   4 weeks ago14/4/15 2 weeks ago 28/4/15 Last week5/5/15 This week 12/5/15
Liberal National 53.5% 48% 47% 47% 48%
Labor 46.5% 52% 53% 53% 52%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Tony Abbott

May 12, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister? 

  Total   Vote Lab Vote Lib/
Nat
Vote Grn Vote Oth.   June 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015
Total approve 36% 7% 78% 1% 35%   35% 35% 32% 37% 29% 31% 33%
Total disapprove 54% 87% 14% 83% 58%   58% 52% 55% 53% 62% 56% 58%
Strongly approve 10% 1% 25% 3% 5% 10% 9% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Approve 26% 6% 53% 8% 30% 25% 26% 24% 28% 22% 24% 26%
Disapprove 25% 32% 12% 43% 23% 18% 22% 22% 23% 26% 22% 28%
Strongly disapprove 29% 55% 2% 40% 25% 40% 30% 33% 30% 36% 34% 30%
Don’t know 11% 6% 8% 6% 17% 7% 13% 12% 10% 9% 12% 9%

36% of respondents approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – up 3% since the last time this question was asked in April – and 54% disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing (down 4%). This represents a 7-point change in his net rating from -25 to -18.

78% (up 3%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 14% (down 4%) disapproving. 87% of Labor voters and 83% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.

By gender men were 40% approve/54% disapprove and women 32% approve/53% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

May 12, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Lab Vote Lib/
Nat
Vote Grn Vote Oth.   June 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015
Total approve 32% 56% 18% 29% 17% 38% 35% 35% 39% 33% 34% 33%
Total disapprove 41% 21% 63% 43% 47% 40% 36% 39% 33% 38% 39% 42%
Strongly approve 4% 8% 1% 5% 7% 5% 7% 7% 8% 5% 6%
Approve 28% 48% 17% 24% 17% 31% 30% 28% 32% 25% 29% 27%
Disapprove 23% 18% 27% 35% 20% 22% 22% 23% 19% 21% 21% 25%
Strongly disapprove 18% 3% 36% 8% 27% 18% 14% 16% 14% 17% 18% 17%
Don’t know 27% 23% 18% 27% 36% 22% 29% 26% 28% 29% 27% 25%

32% (down 1% since April) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 41% (down 1%) disapprove – for no change in his net rating of -9.

56% (down 5%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 21% (up 3%) disapprove.

32% of men and 33% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 49% of men and 34% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

May 12, 2015

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten? 

  Total   Vote Lab Vote Lib/
Nat
Vote Grn Vote Other   Oct 2013 June 2014 Dec 2104 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015
Tony Abbott 35% 4% 78% 11% 32% 41% 36% 31% 35% 31% 33% 32%
Bill Shorten 32% 70% 4% 43% 15% 22% 40% 36% 37% 39% 37% 35%
Don’t know 33% 26% 18% 46% 53% 37% 24% 33% 28% 30% 30% 33%

35% (up 3% since April) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 32% (down 3%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

This is the first month Tony Abbott has been preferred over Bill Shorten since November last year.

41% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 31% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Bill Shorten 34% to 29%.

Access to pension

May 12, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s proposal to remove access to the pension for retirees with substantial assets? Under the new proposal, couples with cash and investments of $820,000 or more and singles with $550,000 will not receive a part pension. 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Total approve 56% 58% 64% 43% 56% 61% 51% 50% 51% 70%
Total disapprove 30% 31% 24% 40% 36% 29% 32% 32% 34% 22%
Strongly approve 22% 22% 26% 19% 24% 28% 16% 16% 20% 32%
Approve 34% 36% 38% 24% 32% 33% 35% 34% 31% 38%
Disapprove 19% 19% 14% 30% 25% 19% 19% 22% 20% 13%
Strongly disapprove 11% 12% 10% 10% 11% 10% 13% 10% 14% 9%
Don’t know 14% 10% 11% 18% 9% 10% 17% 19% 14% 8%

56% approve of the Government’s proposal to remove access to the pension for retirees with substantial assets and 30% disapprove.

While all voter and demographic groups were more likely to approve than disapprove, those most likely to approve were aged 55+ (70%). Liberal/National voters (64%), men (61%) and incomes less than $1,000 pw (66%).

Approval of Joe Hockey

May 12, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Hockey is doing as Treasurer?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other/ Indep-endent   Nov 2013 Aug 2014 Mar 2015
Total approve 30%   10% 63% 14% 18% 45% 35% 27%
Total disapprove 48%   71% 19% 63% 59% 28% 44% 51%
Strongly approve 6% 1% 13% 3% 1% 13% 11% 6%
Approve 24% 9% 50% 11% 17% 32% 24% 21%
Disapprove 25% 33% 15% 33% 30% 15% 20% 25%
Strongly disapprove 23% 38% 4% 30% 29% 13% 24% 26%
Don’t know 23% 19% 18% 23% 23% 27% 21% 22%

30% approve of the job Joe Hockey is doing as Treasurer and 48% disapprove. 23% could not give an opinion.

This represents a change in net rating from -24 to -18 since this question was asked in March.

By gender – 34% (+6) of men approve and 51% (-3) disapprove; 26% (-1) of women approve and 43% (-5) disapprove.

Trust most to handle the economy

May 12, 2015

Q. Who would you trust most to handle Australia’s economy – The Treasurer Joe Hockey or the Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other/ Indep-endent   Aug 2014 Mar 2015
Joe Hockey 30% 7% 66% 16% 21% 34% 26%
Chris Bowen 22% 44% 5% 26% 19% 23% 25%
Don’t know 48% 49% 29% 57% 61% 43% 49%

30% have more trust in Joe Hockey to handle Australia’s economy and 22% have more trust in Chris Bowen. 48% don’t know who they would trust more.

This represents a 7-point shift in favour of Joe Hockey since this question was asked in March.

Access to child care

May 12, 2015

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view? 

Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
All Australian children should have access to childcare and early learning 55% 59% 50% 77% 48% 51% 60% 66% 53% 46%
Childcare and early learning should be dependent on whether both parents meet government tests on being in work or actively looking for work 34% 31% 43% 20% 36% 38% 31% 24% 35% 45%
Don’t know 11% 10% 8% 3% 16% 11% 10% 10% 12% 9%

 

55% are more likely to agree that all Australian children should have access to childcare and early learning and 34% are more likely to agree that child care and early learning should be dependent on whether both parents meet government tests on being in work or actively looking for work.

Those most likely to agree that all Australian children should have access to childcare and early learning were women (60%), aged 18-34 (66%) and with children in the household (62%).

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