War with North Korea

Oct 9, 2017

Q. How likely do you think it is that there will be a war between North Korean and the USA?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total likely 55%   57% 54% 53% 55%
Total unlikely 36%   36% 38% 37% 34%
Very likely 16%   19% 16% 10% 16%
Somewhat likely 39%   38% 38% 43% 39%
Somewhat unlikely 24%   26% 27% 24% 18%
Very unlikely 12%   10% 11% 13% 16%
Don’t know 10%   7% 8% 10% 11%

 

 

55% believe that there is likely to be a war between North Korean and the USA and 36% think it is unlikely.

There were few major differences across demographic and voter groups.

Women were somewhat more likely than men to think a war was likely (61% compared to 49%).

Older people were less likely to think a war was likely (45% of those aged 55+).

Biggest concern for personal safety

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Which of the following is your biggest concern for your personal safety?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Terrorism 33%   30% 40% 20% 40%
Car accident 20%   19% 21% 27% 17%
Nuclear warfare 13%   16% 12% 7% 10%
Catastrophic climate change 7%   9% 3% 23% 6%
Gang violence 7%   5% 7% 7% 11%
Natural disaster 7%   5% 6% 9% 7%
Family violence 2%   3% 2%
Don’t know 12%   13% 9% 7% 9%

 

Major concerns for personal safety were terrorism (33%), car accident (20%) and nuclear war (13%).

Liberal/National voters were more concerned about terrorism (40%) and Greens voters more concerned about climate change (23%).

There were no major differences across demographic groups.

Federal voting intention

Oct 4, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 26/9/17 2 weeks ago 19/9/17 4 weeks ago 5/9/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 33%   33% 34% 33%    
National 3%   4% 3% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 36%   37% 38% 36%   42.0%
Labor 38%   37% 36% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 2%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7%   7% 8% 8%    
Other/Independent 7%   6% 5% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 46%   47% 48% 47%   50.4%
Labor 54%   53% 52% 53%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,841. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Same sex marriage

Oct 4, 2017

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Attend church at least once a month

(21%)

Attend church less often

(31%)

Never attend church

(48%)

  Jul 2017
Should be allowed to marry 61%   72% 48% 77% 54%   39% 58% 71%   61%
Should not be allowed to marry 32%   23% 43% 18% 41%   53% 34% 22%   26%
Don’t know 7%   5% 9% 4% 6%   8% 8% 7%   13%

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Already voted Will

def-initely vote

Will prob-ably vote Will not vote
Should be allowed to marry 61%   54% 67% 68% 62% 51%   66% 61% 61% 29%
Should not be allowed to marry 32%   39% 25% 25% 32% 40%   30% 35% 31% 40%
Don’t know 7%   7% 7% 7% 6% 9%   4% 3% 8% 31%

 

61% thought that people of the same sex should be able to marry and 32% thought that they should not.

Women (67% support) were more likely than men (54%) to support same sex marriage.

72% of 18-24 year olds supported same sex marriage, compared to 40% of over 65 year olds.

Support for same sex marriage has remained stable over the last few years but opposition has increased and those who don’t have an opinion has declined.

Likelihood of voting

Oct 4, 2017

Q. How likely are you to vote in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Should be allowed to marry Should not be allowed to marry   5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep
Will definitely vote 33%   38% 38% 23% 23%   33% 36%   62% 62% 45%
Will probably vote 6%   5% 7% 11% 4%   6% 6%   16% 12% 8%
Will probably not vote 3%   3% 6% 1% <1%   2% 4%   4% 2% 1%
Will definitely not vote 3%   3% 4% 1% 6%   1% 5%   3% 3% 2%
Not sure 5%   4% 3% 4% 4%   3% 4%   10% 8% 5%
I have already voted 47%   46% 43% 56% 62%   52% 44%   9% 36%
I am not enrolled to vote at my current address 3%   3% 3% 1%   3% 2%   4% 5% 3%

 

 

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Attend church at least once a month Attend church less often Never attend church
Will definitely vote 33%   36% 30% 31% 35% 32%   41% 32% 30%
Will probably vote 6%   8% 4% 10% 6% 2%   14% 6% 3%
Will probably not vote 3%   5% 2% 6% 3% 1%   7% 2% 2%
Will definitely not vote 3%   4% 3% 5% 3% 1%   3% 3% 4%
Not sure 5%   5% 4% 4% 6% 4%   4% 4% 5%
I have already voted 47%   39% 55% 42% 43% 59%   27% 52% 53%
I am not enrolled to vote at my current address 3%   3% 3% 2% 4% 1%   4% 1% 3%

 

 

47% say they have already voted in the same sex marriage survey and 33% say they will definitely vote.

59% of those aged 55+ have already voted compared to 42% of those aged under 35.

Those who support same-sex marriage are more likely to have already voted (52%) than those opposed (44%).

Only 27% of those who attend church or a place of worship say they have voted, although 41% say they will definitely vote.

Vote in same sex marriage survey

Oct 4, 2017

Q. Did you answer yes or no to the question “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry? (Based on those who have already voted)

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Should be allowed to marry Should not be allowed to marry
Yes 64%   76% 47% 95% 49%   94% 5%
No 30%   21% 43% 5% 43%   1% 92%
Prefer not to say 6%   3% 10% 8%   4% 3%

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Attend church at least once a month Attend church less often Never attend church
Yes 64%   56% 70% 76% 65% 55%   26% 64% 73%
No 30%   40% 23% 20% 30% 37%   67% 27% 24%
Prefer not to say 6%   4% 7% 4% 5% 8%   7% 9% 4%

 

Of those who have already voted, 64% say they voted yes and 30% no.

Those most likely to have voted yes are Greens voters (95%), Labor voters (76%), aged 18-34 (76%) and women (70%).

Intended vote in same sex marriage survey

Oct 4, 2017

Q. The question in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage is “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry? Do you intend to vote yes or no? (Based on those who have not yet voted)

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Should be allowed to marry Should not be allowed to marry   Will

def-initely vote

Will prob-ably vote Will not vote
Intend to vote yes 50%   66% 41% 55% 36%   88% 3%   61% 57% 16%
Intend to vote no 36%   24% 46% 30% 42%   5% 93%   37% 34% 44%
Don’t know 14%   10% 12% 16% 22%   7% 4%   2% 10% 40%

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Attend church at least once a month Attend church less often Never attend church
Intend to vote yes 50%   46% 55% 58% 49% 38%   40% 44% 61%
Intend to vote no 36%   40% 30% 28% 36% 48%   51% 42% 20%
Don’t know 14%   14% 15% 14% 15% 14%   9% 13% 19%

 

Of those yet to vote, 50% say they will vote yes and 36% no. However, of those who will definitely vote, 61% will vote yes and 37% no.

Those most likely to vote yes are Labor voters (66%), aged 18-34 (58%) and women (55%).

Trust in Institutions

Oct 4, 2017

Q. How much trust do you have in the following institutions and organisations?

  Total

trust

  A lot of trust Some trust A little trust No trust Don’t know % change   Total trust Oct 15 Total trust Sep 16 Total trust Jan 17
Federal police 71%   27% 44% 19% 7% 3% +2   67% 63% 69%
State police 67%   24% 43% 21% 9% 2%   68% 63% 67%
The High Court 61%   22% 39% 25% 10% 4% -1   60% 57% 62%
The ABC 52%   17% 35% 29% 12% 7% -1   55% 53% 53%
The Reserve Bank 49%   13% 36% 32% 13% 7% -2   51% 47% 51%
Charitable organisations 46%   8% 38% 38% 12% 4% +1   49% 43% 45%
Environment groups 42%   9% 33% 35% 19% 5% +3   42% 39% 39%
Your local council 38%   7% 31% 38% 21% 4%   40% 36% 38%
The Commonwealth Public Service 38%   6% 32% 38% 16% 9% +2   38% 36% 36%
State Parliament 31%   4% 27% 35% 29% 4%   32% 26% 31%
Federal Parliament 30%   5% 25% 35% 32% 4%   32% 26% 30%
Business groups 28%   4% 24% 46% 20% 6% +1   30% 27% 27%
Religious organisations 26%   6% 20% 31% 39% 4% -2   30% 26% 28%
Trade unions 25%   4% 21% 34% 33% 7% -2   27% 25% 27%
Political parties 18%   3% 15% 34% 45% 3% +1   16% 14% 17%

 

Note: ‘Total Trust’ is an aggregate figure achieved by adding ‘A lot of trust’ and ‘Some trust’

 

Overall, trust in institutions j=has changed little since this question was asked in January.

Respondents had most trust in the Federal police (71%), State police (67%), the High Court (61%), the ABC (52%) and the Reserve Bank (49%). They had least trust in political parties (17%), business groups (27%), trade unions (27%) and religious organisations (28%).

The main change since the last poll were for environment groups (up 3%).

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