Federal voting intention

Aug 9, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

2/8/16

2 weeks ago

26/7/16

4 weeks ago

12/7/16

  Election 7 Sep 13
Liberal 37%   36% 35% 37%    
National 2%   3% 4% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 40%   39% 39% 41%   45.6%
Labor 37%   37% 37% 36%   33.4%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4%   4% 4% 3%  
Other/Independent 10%   10% 11% 10%   12.4%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   48% 48% 49%   53.5%
Labor 52%   52% 52% 51%   46.5%

NB. Sample = 1,795. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016
Total approve 38%   15% 77% 18% 27%   56% 45% 38% 37%
Total disapprove 43%   69% 14% 62% 59%   23% 35% 40% 48%
Strongly approve 6%   2% 15% 1%   13% 6% 6% 8%
Approve 32%   13% 62% 18% 26%   43% 39% 32% 29%
Disapprove 26%   37% 12% 37% 35%   16% 24% 24% 27%
Strongly disapprove 17%   32% 2% 25% 24%   7% 11% 16% 21%
Don’t know 19%   16% 10% 19% 15%   21% 21% 21% 16%

38% (up 1% from 4 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 43% (down 5%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from -11 to -5.

77% (up 2%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 14% (no change) disapproving. 15% (up 2%) of Labor voters and 18% (down 1%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 42% approve/46% disapprove and women 33% approve/41% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016
Total approve 37%   67% 20% 41% 23%   31% 35% 27% 27% 34% 39%
Total disapprove 41%   15% 64% 36% 64%   27% 39% 47% 47% 40% 41%
Strongly approve 7%   17% 2% 4%   5% 7% 4% 3% 7% 11%
Approve 30%   50% 18% 37% 23%   26% 28% 23% 24% 27% 28%
Disapprove 23%   13% 29% 28% 36%   17% 23% 26% 29% 22% 21%
Strongly disapprove 18%   2% 35% 8% 28%   10% 16% 21% 18% 18% 20%
Don’t know 22%   18% 16% 23% 13%   43% 26% 25% 26% 25% 20%

37% (down 2% in last 4 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 41% (no change) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -2 to -4.

67% (down 11%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 15% (up 5%) disapprove.

42% of men and 32% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 43% of men and 39% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 40%   10% 83% 21% 31%   53% 54% 48% 40% 39%
Bill Shorten 30%   64% 4% 49% 19%   17% 15% 19% 29% 31%
Don’t know 31%   26% 13% 30% 51%   30% 31% 33% 32% 30%

40% (up 1% in last 4 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 30% (down 1%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

43% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 31% prefer Bill Shorten.

36% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 28% prefer Bill Shorten.

Globalisation

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Globalisation is the increase of trade, communication, travel and other things among countries around the world. In general, do you think Australia has gained more or lost more because of globalisation?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Gained 29%   26% 35% 48% 18%
Lost 29%   34% 23% 19% 48%
Nether 18%   18% 20% 11% 20%
Don’t know 24%   22% 21% 22% 15%

29% think that Australia has gained more from globalisation and 29% think we have lost more.

Those most likely to think Australia has gained from globalisation were aged 18-34 (42%), incomes over $2,000 pw (40%), university educated (43%), and Greens voters (48%).

Those who think Australia has lost because of globalisation were more likely to be aged 55+ (37%) and other party and independent voters (48%).

Jobs and trade

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Overall, would you say Australian trade with other countries creates more jobs for Australia, loses more jobs for Australia or has no effect on Australian jobs?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Creates jobs 28%   28% 36% 32% 12%
Loses jobs 40%   47% 32% 28% 58%
No effect 10%   5% 12% 11% 12%
Don’t know 23%   20% 20% 28% 18%

40% think that trade with other countries loses more jobs for Australia and 28% think it gains more jobs.

Those most likely to think trade creates more Australian jobs were Liberal/National voters (36%), incomes over $2,000 pw (36%) and university educated (36%),

Those who think Australia loses more jobs from trade were more likely to be aged 55+ (47%), Labor voters (47%) and other party and independent voters (58%).

The Census

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Next Tuesday’s 2016 Census of Population and Housing will require all people to provide their names and addresses which will be keep associated with the data for four years. Do you approve or disapprove of the Census keeping names and addresses?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 45%   43% 57% 42% 35%
Total disapprove 39%   45% 28% 44% 55%
Strongly approve 10%   9% 14% 9% 6%
Approve 35%   34% 43% 33% 29%
Disapprove 22%   22% 20% 27% 26%
Strongly disapprove 17%   23% 8% 17% 29%
Don’t know 16%   12% 15% 14% 9%

45% approve of the Census keeping names and addresses and 39% disapprove.

Those more likely to approve were Liberal/National voters (57%), aged 55+ (51%), incomes over $2,000 pw (51%) and university educated (51%).

Those most likely to disapprove were other party and independent voters (55%).

The economy

Aug 9, 2016

Q. Do you think the recent cut in official interest rates indicates that Australia’s economy is getting better or getting worse?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Economy is getting better 13%   11% 19% 13% 11%
Economy is getting worse 47%   53% 44% 45% 61%
Neither 24%   23% 24% 20% 21%
Don’t know 16%   13% 13% 22% 7%

47% think that the recent cut in official interest rates indicates Australia’s economy is getting worse and 13% think it indicates the economy is getting better. 24% think it indicates neither.

There were few significant differences across demographic groups. 54% of those aged 45-64 and 61% of other party and independent voters thought it indicated the economy was getting worse.

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