Federal voting intention

Aug 8, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 1/8/17 2 weeks ago 25/7/17 4 weeks ago 11/7/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 34%   36% 35% 33%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 37%   38% 38% 36%   42.0%
Labor 39%   36% 37% 36%   34.7%
Greens 9%   10% 10% 11%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   4% 4% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   8% 7% 7%    
Other/Independent 5%   4% 5% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 46%   48% 47% 46%   50.4%
Labor 54%   52% 53% 54%   49.6%

Sample = 1,805. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Aug 8, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister? 

  Total     July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 Apr 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total Approve 38%     37% 36% 37% 35% 33% 34% 38% 56%
Total Disapprove 46%     49% 45% 48% 47% 50% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 4%     6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 34%     31% 31% 32% 30% 28% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 27%     30% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 19%     19% 17% 19% 18% 20% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 16%     15% 19% 15% 17% 18% 20% 21% 21%

 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other  
Total Approve 38%   27% 73% 12% 18%  
Total Disapprove 46%   65% 19% 68% 65%  
Strongly approve 4%   4% 9%  
Approve 34%   23% 64% 12% 18%  
Disapprove 27%   37% 15% 43% 33%  
Strongly disapprove 19%   28% 4% 25% 32%  
Don’t know 16%   9% 9% 20% 17%  

38% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (up 1% from last month), and 46% disapproved (down 3% from last month) – a change in net approval rating from -12 to -8 (his best net rating since November last year).

73% (up 2%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 27% of ALP voters and 12% of Greens voters.

By gender, men were 43% approve/49% disapprove and women 33% approve/42% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Aug 8, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other  
Total Approve 35%   65% 20% 36% 13%  
Total Disapprove 42%   19% 64% 37% 72%  
Strongly approve 6%   15% 6% 1%  
Approve 29%   50% 20% 30% 12%  
Disapprove 24%   13% 37% 29% 29%  
Strongly disapprove 18%   6% 27% 8% 43%  
Don’t know 22%   16% 16% 27% 15%  

 

  Total     July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 Apr 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 35%     36% 34% 34% 33% 30% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 42%     44% 43% 45% 46% 49% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 6%     6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 29%     30% 29% 28% 28% 26% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 24%     24% 28% 26% 26% 26% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 18%     20% 15% 19% 20% 23% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 22%     20% 23% 22% 22% 22% 25% 25% 26%

35% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (down 1% from last month), and 42% disapproved (down 2%) – a change in net approval rating from -8 to -7.

65% (down 1%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 36% of Greens voters and 20% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 39% approve/48% disapprove and women 32% approve/38% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Aug 8, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other  
Malcolm Turnbull 41%   20% 80% 11% 37%  
Bill Shorten 27%   56% 5% 41% 13%  
Don’t know 32%   24% 15% 48% 50%  

 

  Total     July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 Apr 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 41%     41% 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 27%     27% 26% 31% 28% 26% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 32%     31% 34% 30% 32% 36% 33% 32% 31%


41% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make a better Prime Minister (no change from last month), and 27% thought Bill Shorten would be better (no change). 32% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 80% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 56% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (41%) to Turnbull (11%), although the largest proportion did not know who would make a better Prime Minister (48%).

47% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 30% prefer Bill Shorten.

36% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 24% prefer Bill Shorten.

School funding

Aug 8, 2017

Q. As far as you are aware, has the Turnbull Coalition Government increased funding to schools, decreased school funding or not changed school funding much at all?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Increased school funding 28%   21% 42% 12% 30%
Decreased school funding 22%   32% 15% 30% 19%
Not changed school funding much 22%   25% 20% 25% 27%
Don’t know 28%   22% 23% 34% 24%

Views about whether the Federal Government had increased or decreased school funding were mixed. 28% thought they had increased funding, 22% thought they had decreased funding and 22% thought they had not changed the funding. Responses were partly related to voting intention – 42% of Liberal/National voters thought funding had increased while 32% of Labor voters thought it had decreased.

Family trusts

Aug 8, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Labor Party’s proposal to tax the distributions of family trusts at 30%, the same level of tax paid by companies?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 41%   58% 37% 37% 34%
Total disapprove 30%   19% 41% 18% 44%
Strongly approve 15%   24% 10% 19% 12%
Approve 26%   34% 27% 18% 22%
Disapprove 19%   14% 25% 12% 26%
Strongly disapprove 11%   5% 16% 6% 18%
Don’t know 29%   23% 22% 45% 21%

41% approved of the Labor Party’s proposal to tax the distributions of family trusts at 30% and 30% disapproved. 29% did not have an opinion. A majority (58%) of Labor voters approved but Liberal/National voters were split (37% approve/41% disapprove).

Of those on higher incomes ($104,000+) 47% approved and 30% disapproved.

Same-sex marriage

Aug 8, 2017

Q. Recently, a number of suggestions have been made for making a decision about same sex marriage. Do you approve or disapprove of each of the following suggestions?

  Total approve Total dis-approve   Strongly approve Approve Dis-approve Strongly dis-approve Don’t know
Hold a voluntary postal plebiscite followed by a vote in Parliament. 43% 38%   15% 28% 18% 20% 19%
Hold a vote in Parliament and try to persuade Liberal Party members to cross the floor and vote against their party policy 43% 31%   20% 23% 16% 15% 25%
Hold a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election 46% 34%   17% 29% 18% 16% 20%
Wait until after the next election before trying to reach a decision 22% 55%   6% 16% 24% 31% 23%

 

  Total approve   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Hold a voluntary postal plebiscite followed by a vote in Parliament. 43%   45% 53% 40% 35%
Hold a vote in Parliament and try to persuade Liberal Party members to cross the floor and vote against their party policy 43%   59% 37% 54% 26%
Hold a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election 46%   44% 57% 33% 52%
Wait until after the next election before trying to reach a decision 22%   23% 27% 9% 19%


Three options for addressing the issue of same sex marriage received moderate support. 46% approved holding a plebiscite with the next election, 43% approved holding a vote in Parliament and 43% supported a postal plebiscite (although 38% disapproved of this option).

A majority (55%) disapproved of waiting until after the next election before trying to reach a decision.

A majority of Labor (59%) and Greens (54%) voters approved of holding a vote in Parliament while Liberal/National voters were more likely to approve holding a plebiscite with the next election (57%) and holding a voluntary postal plebiscite (53%).

Waiting until after the next election was disapproved by 61% of Labor voters, 48% of Liberal/National voters and 70% of Greens voters.

Industrial laws

Aug 8, 2017

Q. Do you think Australia’s industrial relations and work laws favour the interests of employers or employees or do they balance the interests of both?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Work full time Work part time
Favour employers 39%   49% 26% 44% 51%   40% 33%
Favour employees 12%   10% 17% 5% 10%   14% 14%
Balance interests of both employers and employees 29%   27% 38% 21% 21%   30% 29%
Don’t know 21%   14% 19% 30% 18%   17% 24%

39% believe that Australia’s industrial relations and work laws favour the interests of employers, 12% think they favour employees and 29% think they balance the interests of both.

Labor (49%) and Greens (44%) voters were more likely to think they favour employers while Liberal/National voters were more likely to think they were balanced (38%).

49% of those earning $600-$1,000 pw thought they favoured employers.

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