Federal voting intention

Apr 11, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 4/4/17 2 weeks ago 28/3/17 4 weeks ago 14/3/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 35%   35% 32% 32%    
National 3%   2% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 37%   37% 35% 35%   42.0%
Labor 36%   36% 37% 36%   34.7%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 4% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 8%   8% 8% 11%    
Other/Independent 6%   6% 7% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 47%   47% 46% 47%   50.4%
Labor 53%   53% 54% 53%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,785. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Apr 11, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017
Total approve 35%   20% 74% 15% 19%   56% 45% 38% 34% 37% 34% 33%
Total disapprove 47%   65% 18% 75% 68%   23% 35% 40% 46% 48% 49% 50%
Strongly approve 5% 4% 11% 1% 13% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Approve 30% 16% 63% 15% 18% 43% 39% 32% 29% 31% 29% 28%
Disapprove 29% 36% 16% 41% 41% 16% 24% 24% 30% 30% 28% 30%
Strongly disapprove 18% 29% 2% 34% 27% 7% 11% 16% 16% 18% 21% 20%
Don’t know 17% 15% 7% 9% 13% 21% 21% 21% 20% 16% 16% 18%

 

35% (up 2% from 4 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 47% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from -17 to -12.

 

74% (up 7%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 18% (down 3%) disapproving. 20% (down 4%) of Labor voters and 15% (down 2%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 40% approve/51% disapprove and women 32% approve/44% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Apr 11, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017
Total approve 33%   64% 20% 31% 14%   31% 35% 27% 35% 37% 30% 30%
Total disapprove 46%   17% 67% 54% 68%   27% 39% 47% 38% 44% 47% 49%
Strongly approve 5%   13% 2% 1%   5% 7% 4% 6% 7% 5% 4%
Approve 28%   51% 18% 30% 14%   26% 28% 23% 29% 30% 25% 26%
Disapprove 26%   13% 32% 51% 31%   17% 23% 26% 21% 25% 27% 26%
Strongly disapprove 20%   4% 35% 3% 37%   10% 16% 21% 17% 19% 20% 23%
Don’t know 22%   19% 13% 14% 18%   43% 26% 25% 25% 20% 22% 22%

 

33% (up 3% in last 4 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 46% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -19 to -13.

64% (up 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 17% (down 6%) disapprove.

33% of men and 33% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 53% of men and 39% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Apr 11, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar

2017

Malcolm Turnbull 39%   13% 83% 9% 39%   53% 54% 48% 40% 41% 39% 39% 39% 38%
Bill Shorten 28%   60% 4% 56% 16%   17% 15% 19% 29% 26% 28% 28% 25% 26%
Don’t know 32%   27% 13% 36% 46%   30% 31% 33% 32% 33% 33% 33% 36% 36%

 

 

39% (up 1% in last 4 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 28% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

46% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 29% prefer Bill Shorten.

32% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 28% prefer Bill Shorten.

Tax cuts for business

Apr 11, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision to give $24 billion worth of tax cuts to businesses with annual turnover of up to $50 million?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 31%   19% 59% 11% 34%
Total disapprove 50%   68% 27% 72% 52%
Strongly approve 7%   2% 17% 2% 5%
Approve 24%   17% 42% 9% 29%
Disapprove 26%   31% 20% 28% 27%
Strongly disapprove 24%   37% 7% 44% 25%
Don’t know 19%   14% 15% 17% 13%

 

31% approve of the Government’s decision to give tax cuts to businesses with turnover less than $50 million and 50% disapprove.

Liberal/National voters were the only voter or demographic group showing majority approval (59%).

Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (72%), Labor voters (68%) and aged 45-64 (60%).

Tax cuts for large businesses

Apr 11, 2017

Q. Would you approve or disapprove of giving a similar tax cut to businesses with annual turnover of more then $50 million?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 20%   17% 35% 8% 18%
Total disapprove 60%   70% 46% 78% 68%
Strongly approve 4%   3% 8% 2% 1%
Approve 16%   14% 27% 6% 17%
Disapprove 26%   24% 33% 22% 24%
Strongly disapprove 34%   46% 13% 56% 44%
Don’t know 20%   14% 19% 15% 13%

 

20% would approve of giving similar tax cuts to businesses with turnover more than $50 million and 60% would disapprove.

On this issue Liberal/National voters were more likely to disapprove (35% approve/46% disapprove).

Those most likely to disapprove were Greens voters (78%), Labor voters (70%) and aged 45+ (67%).

Impact of tax cuts

Apr 11, 2017

Q. What do you think will be the more likely result of tax cuts for businesses?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Businesses will make bigger profits 57%   73% 41% 78% 61%
Businesses will employ more workers 26%   14% 49% 8% 25%
Don’t know 17%   13% 10% 14% 14%

57% think that tax cuts for businesses will be more likely to lead to bigger profits and 26% think it is more likely to result in more workers employed.

Those most likely to think it will lead to bigger profits were Greens voters (78%), Labor voters (73%), aged 45-64 (63%) and university educated (63%).

Getting better or worse

Apr 11, 2017

Q. Do you think things are getting better or worse for you and you family in terms of the following?

  Total better Total worse   Getting a lot better Getting a little better Staying much the same Getting a little worse Getting a lot worse Don’t know
Housing affordability 9% 62%   4% 5% 21% 22% 40% 9%
Cost of electricity and gas 6% 74%   2% 4% 17% 32% 42% 3%
Your general standard of living 13% 49%   3% 10% 36% 32% 17% 2%
Your income 13% 36%   2% 11% 47% 19% 17% 4%
Your job security * 14% 31%   3% 11% 52% 17% 14% 3%
Work-family balance * 17% 32%   4% 13% 48% 19% 13% 3%
Your overall quality of life 17% 34%   3% 14% 46% 22% 12% 2%
The quality of political representation 7% 60%   2% 5% 26% 27% 33% 8%


* based on people working

Respondents tended to be pessimistic about all items measured. They were particularly negative about the cost of electricity and gas (74% getting worse), housing affordability (62%) and their general standard of living (49%). Income, job security, work-family balance and overall quality of life were more likely to be staying much the same.

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