Federal voting intention

Jan 16, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   4 weeks ago 19/12/17   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 34%   34%    
National 3%   3%    
Total Liberal/National 37%   37%   42.0%
Labor 38%   38%   34.7%
Greens 9%   9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   2%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6%   7%    
Other/Independent 7%   7%   13.1%
2 party preferred          
Liberal National 47%   47%   50.4%
Labor 53%   53%   49.6%

 

  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Jan 16, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec  2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total Approve 38% 23% 68% 18% 25%   41% 41% 36% 33% 34% 38% 56%
Total Disapprove 45% 62% 20% 68% 65%   44% 46% 45% 50% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 7% 3% 14% 3% 5% 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 31% 20% 54% 15% 20% 33% 34% 31% 28% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 25% 31% 15% 34% 37% 27% 28% 28% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 20% 31% 5% 34% 28% 17% 18% 17% 20% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 18%   16% 13% 14% 9%   15% 14% 19% 18% 20% 21% 21%

38% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (down 3% from last month), and 45% disapproved (up 1%) – a change in net approval rating from -3 to -7.

68% (down 6%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 23% of ALP voters and 18% of Greens voters.

By gender, men were 42% approve/48% disapprove and women 34% approve/42% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Jan 16, 2018

 Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 32%   60% 15% 39% 18%   36% 36% 34% 30% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 49%   20% 75% 38% 71%   45% 47% 43% 49% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 7%   14% 3% 5% 2%   7% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 25%   46% 12% 34% 16%   29% 29% 29% 26% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 26%   17% 32% 26% 39%   23% 25% 28% 26% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 23%   3% 43% 12% 32%   22% 22% 15% 23% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 20%   20% 11% 23% 12%   19% 17% 23% 22% 25% 25% 26%

32% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (down 4% from last month), and 49% disapproved (up 4%) – a change in net approval rating from -9 to -17.

60% (down 4%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 39% of Greens voters and 15% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 38% approve/51% disapprove and women 27% approve/46% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Jan 16, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 42% 19% 80% 20% 38%   42% 43% 39% 38% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 25% 52% 3% 39% 21%   28% 29% 26% 26% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 33%   30% 17% 41% 41%   31% 28% 34% 36% 33% 32% 31%


42% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make a better Prime Minister (no change from last month), and 25% thought Bill Shorten would be better (down 3%). 33% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 80% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 52% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (39%) to Malcolm Turnbull (20%).

45% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 30% prefer Bill Shorten.

38% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 20% prefer Bill Shorten.

Republic

Jan 16, 2018

Q. Would you support or oppose Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2017
Total support 44%   54% 45% 56% 32%   44%
Total oppose 29%   19% 37% 21% 46%   30%
Strongly support 18% 27% 13% 25% 14% 21%
Support 26% 27% 32% 31% 18% 23%
Oppose 14% 9% 18% 11% 23% 18%
Strongly oppose 15% 10% 19% 10% 23% 12%
No opinion 26% 27% 18% 23% 22%   26%

 

44% support Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state and 29% oppose. 26% have no opinion. These results are almost identical to when this question was asked 12 months ago.

Those most likely to support were Labor voters (54%), Greens voters (56%), men (51%) and university educated (52%).

Those most likely to oppose were Liberal/National voters (37%), other party voters (46%) and aged 65+ (44%).

Sugar tax

Jan 16, 2018

Q. Would you support or oppose a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total support 53%   54% 57% 60% 48%
Total oppose 38%   37% 37% 27% 46%
Strongly support 21% 19% 25% 29% 19%
Support 32% 35% 32% 31% 29%
Oppose 21% 19% 23% 14% 24%
Strongly oppose 17% 18% 14% 13% 22%
No opinion 10% 8% 5% 14% 7%

53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks and 38% oppose.

Those most likely to support the tax were Greens voters (60%) and those with university education (64%).

Those most likely to oppose the tax were other party voters (46%).

Perceptions of crime

Jan 16, 2018

Q. Do you think the following types of crime have increased or decreased over the last few years?

  Increas-ed a lot Increas-ed a little Stayed about the same Decreas-ed a little Decreas-ed a lot Don’t know   Total increas-ed Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Drug-related crime 53% 23% 14% 3% 1% 6%   76% 76% 79% 65% 86%
Youth gang crime 49% 21% 17% 4% 2% 7%   70% 65% 73% 52% 86%
Domestic violence 32% 31% 25% 4% 2% 7%   63% 65% 65% 63% 66%
Violent crime – e.g. assault, murder 30% 30% 24% 6% 1% 8%   60% 58% 63% 53% 72%
Burglary 30% 27% 26% 7% 2% 7%   57% 56% 57% 49% 66%
White collar crime – e.g. fraud, corporate crime 24% 31% 30% 3% 2% 10%   55% 52% 61% 58% 55%
Car theft 27% 26% 28% 10% 2% 8%   53% 51% 55% 41% 58%

 

A majority believed that all crimes have increased.

More than two-thirds believe that drug-related crime (76%) and youth gang crime (70%) have increased – and about half think they have increased a lot.

Those more likely to think youth gang crime has increased were Liberal/National voters (73%), other party voters (86%) and aged 45+ (83%).

Most important crimes to address

Jan 16, 2018

Q. And which of these types of crime are the most important for the Government to address?

  Most import-ant 2nd 3rd   Total import-ant Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Drug-related crime 26% 27% 19%   72% 72% 75% 60% 73%
Domestic violence 29% 22% 16%   67% 71% 68% 76% 56%
Violent crime – e.g. assault, murder 16% 21% 25%   62% 66% 53% 67% 57%
Youth gang crime 20% 16% 17%   53% 46% 57% 31% 72%
White collar crime – e.g. fraud, corporate crime 7% 8% 13%   28% 27% 28% 44% 22%
Burglary 2% 4% 7%   13% 13% 12% 15% 15%
Car theft 1% 2% 3%   6% 5% 8% 8% 5%

More than two-thirds think that drug-related crime (72%) and domestic violence (67%) are the most important types of crime for the Government to address.

53% thought youth gang crime was one of the most important. Those most likely to think it important were Liberal/National voters (57%), other party voters (72%) and aged 55+ (60%).

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