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  • Sep, 2013

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    Australian economy heading in right or wrong direction

    Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

     

     

    17 May 10

    9 May 11

    4 Jul 11

    26 Mar 12

    18 Jun 12

    29 Apr 13

    15 Jul 13

     

    Total

    16 Sep 13

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The right direction

    51%

    45%

    37%

    36%

    43%

    36%

    38%

    44%

    40%

    52%

    33%

    The wrong direction

    25%

    29%

    43%

    41%

    32%

    39%

    42%

    26%

    33%

    20%

    30%

    Don’t know

    24%

    25%

    20%

    22%

    25%

    25%

    20%

    30%

    27%

    28%

    37%

    44% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 26% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in July, “right direction” has increased 6% and “wrong direction” decreased 16%.

    40% (down 26%) of Labor voters, 52% (up 34%) of Liberal/National voters and 33% (down 13%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 50% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 37% of women.

  • Sep, 2013

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    Economic outlook

    Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

     

     

    1 Dec

    08

    5 Oct

    09

    18 Oct

    10

    3 Oct

    11

    27 Aug 12

    29 Jan

    13

     

    Total

    16 Sep 13

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total better

    21%

    66%

    40%

    16%

    22%

    29%

    38%

    16%

    68%

    13%

    Total worse

    61%

    15%

    30%

    58%

    45%

    37%

    33%

    59%

    8%

    58%

    Get a lot better

    2%

    8%

    6%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    7%

    4%

    14%

    Get a little better

    19%

    58%

    34%

    14%

    19%

    25%

    31%

    12%

    54%

    13%

    Get a little worse

    45%

    11%

    20%

    41%

    30%

    28%

    23%

    40%

    7%

    40%

    Get a lot worse

    16%

    4%

    10%

    17%

    15%

    9%

    10%

    19%

    1%

    18%

    Stay much the same

    13%

    15%

    24%

    22%

    27%

    27%

    19%

    17%

    19%

    20%

    Don’t know

    5%

    4%

    6%

    4%

    6%

    6%

    10%

    9%

    5%

    10%

    Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since January.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 9 points to 38%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 4 points to 33%.  This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.

    Shifts in opinion are strongly associated with voting intention – Labor voters have shifted from 50% better/22% worse (net +28) to 16% better/59% worse (net -43). Liberal/National voters have shifted from 21% better/51% worse (net -30) to 68% better/8% worse (net +60).

  • Sep, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September  – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    5/8/13

    13/8/13

    19/8/13

    26/8/13

    2/9/13

    5/9/13

     

     

    Liberal National

    43.6%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    Labor

    38.0%

    37%

    41%

    39%

    36%

    35%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    7%

    9%

    11%

    10%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    11%

    9%

    8%

    10%

    11%

    12%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    5/8/13

    13/8/13

    19/8/13

    26/8/13

    2/9/13

    5/9/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    51%

    50%

    50%

    51%

    53%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    49%

    47%

    48%

    Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Sep, 2013

    , , ,

    Firmness of voting intention

    Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

     

    Total

    Gave voting intention

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Other party/ Independent

     

    5 Aug

    19 Aug

    26 Aug

    2 Sep

    I will definitely not change my mind

    54%

    54%

    63%

    42%

    29%

    44%

    46%

    47%

    54%

    It is very unlikely I will change my mind

    27%

    29%

    22%

    32%

    32%

    30%

    32%

    30%

    27%

    It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

    15%

    14%

    12%

    18%

    30%

    21%

    17%

    18%

    15%

    Don’t know

    4%

    3%

    3%

    9%

    9%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    4%

    54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.

    Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

  • Sep, 2013

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    Reasons for vote

    Q. Which of the following are the main reasons why you will vote for that party? (up to 3 responses)

     

    Total

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Other party/ Independent

    Better at handling Australia’s economy

    42%

    29%

    69%

    7%

    13%

    Better at looking after the interests people like me

    28%

    37%

    19%

    25%

    35%

    They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians

    33%

    37%

    24%

    33%

    51%

    I always vote for the same party

    10%

    13%

    10%

    9%

    1%

    They have a better leader

    20%

    35%

    14%

    5%

    13%

    More trustworthy than the other parties

    22%

    21%

    15%

    45%

    33%

    They are more united

    12%

    2%

    21%

    15%

    5%

    They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties

    15%

    10%

    26%

    6%

    3%

    They have better policies on things like education and health

    15%

    29%

    4%

    21%

    9%

    They have better policies on things like environment and climate change

    11%

    13%

    1%

    55%

    6%

    They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers

    8%

    16%

    3%

    8%

    8%

    They have better policies on things like national security and immigration

    9%

    3%

    12%

    15%

    6%

    We need a change of Government

    18%

    1%

    28%

    10%

    36%

    No reason

    4%

    5%

    3%

    1%

    4%

    Don’t know

    2%

    2%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    Main reasons for voting Labor were better at looking after the interests of people like me (37%), more likely to represent the interests of all Australians (37%) and have a better leader (35%).

    Main reasons for voting Liberal or National were better at handling the economy (69%), need a change of Government (28%) and more capable of governing effectively (26%).

  • Sep, 2013

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    Opinion of Kevin Rudd

    Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party gone up or down?

     

    Total

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total gone up

    16%

    33%

    6%

    9%

    Total gone down

    40%

    12%

    65%

    42%

    Gone up a lot

    7%

    16%

    2%

    6%

    Gone up a little

    9%

    17%

    4%

    3%

    Stayed the same

    38%

    53%

    26%

    47%

    Gone down a little

    14%

    9%

    16%

    25%

    Gone down a lot

    26%

    3%

    49%

    17%

    Don’t know

    5%

    2%

    3%

    2%

    16% say their opinion of Kevin Rudd has gone up since the election was called and 40% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 65% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Kevin Rudd had gone down and 33% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone up. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.

  • Sep, 2013

    , , ,

    Opinion of Tony Abbott

    Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?

     

    Total

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total gone up

    25%

    7%

    51%

    8%

    Total gone down

    35%

    59%

    5%

    63%

    Gone up a lot

    10%

    2%

    21%

    1%

    Gone up a little

    15%

    5%

    30%

    7%

    Stayed the same

    35%

    32%

    42%

    27%

    Gone down a little

    11%

    15%

    3%

    19%

    Gone down a lot

    24%

    44%

    2%

    44%

    Don’t know

    5%

    2%

    3%

    1%

    25% say their opinion of Tony Abbott has gone up since the election was called and 35% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 51% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Tony Abbott had gone up and 59% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone down. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.

  • Sep, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,856 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    5/8/13

    2 weeks ago

    19/8/13

    Last week

    26/8/13

    This week

    2/9/13

    Liberal

     

    40%

    41%

    40%

    41%

    National

    3%

    3%

    2%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    44%

    Labor

    38.0%

    38%

    40%

    38%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    8%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    10%

    8%

    9%

    10%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    5/8/13

    2 weeks ago

    19/8/13

    Last week

    26/8/13

    This week

    2/9/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    51%

    50%

    50%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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