Change in Relationships with Other Countries

Nov 15, 2010

Q. Would you like to see Australia’s relationship with these countries get closer, stay the same or become less close?

Get closer Stay the same Become less close Don’t know Get closer April 10 Change
China 30% 50% 9% 11% 33% -3
New Zealand 29% 58% 3% 11% 33% -4
Indonesia 23% 49% 15% 13% 30% -7
India 22% 50% 14% 14% 24% -2
Japan 21% 58% 8% 13% 24% -3
United States 20% 60% 11% 10% 24% -4
United Kingdom 20% 63% 7% 10% 24% -4
Germany 14% 62% 9% 15% 16% -2
South Africa 11% 59% 14% 16% 13% -2

30% think that Australia’s relationship with China should get closer and 29% think our relationship with New Zealand should get closer.

Labor voters are most likely to favour closer relationships with China (32%) and New Zealand (29%).

Liberal/National voters are most likely to favour closer relationships with New Zealand (29%) and China (28%).

Greens  voters are most likely to favour closer relationships with China (38%), Indonesia (36%) and New Zealand (36%).

Since this question was asked in April, the percentage wanting a closer relationship with Indonesia has dropped from 30% to 23%.

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Influence of the USA

Nov 15, 2010

Q. Do you think the influence of the United States in the world is becoming stronger or weaker?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total stronger 20% 23% 17% 20%
Total weaker 60% 56% 63% 73%
Much stronger 7% 8% 5% 4%
A little stronger 13% 15% 12% 16%
A little weaker 50% 49% 54% 52%
Much weaker 10% 7% 9% 21%
No change 14% 14% 16% 6%
Don’t know 7% 5% 5% 1%

The majority (60%) think that the influence of the United States in the world is becoming weaker – only 20% think it is becoming stronger.

72% of those aged 55+ think it is becoming weaker (and 15% stronger) while 27% of those aged under 35 think it is becoming stronger (and 46% weaker).

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Same Sex Marriage

Nov 15, 2010

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Should be allowed to marry 53% 57% 45% 80%
Should not be allowed to marry 36% 32% 45% 12%
Don’t know 11% 10% 10% 8%

Same-sex marriage is supported by just over half (53%) of respondents and 36% are opposed.

Those most likely to think people of the same sex should be allowed to marry are female (59%), aged under 55 (60%) and Greens voters (80%).

Those most likely to think people of the same sex should not be allowed to marry are male (42%), aged 55+ (57%) and Liberal/National voters (45%).

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Wild Rivers Legislation

Nov 15, 2010

Q. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has said he will introduce a Private Members Bill into Federal Parliament to overturn the Queensland Government’s Wild Rivers laws, which seek to prevent over development such as dams and mines from damaging unspoilt river systems. Mr Abbot claims the Wild Rivers laws deny Aboriginal landowners the opportunity to benefit economically from the land. Do you agree or disagree with the Wild Rivers laws?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total agree 43% 44% 48% 55%
Total disagree 21% 23% 22% 18%
Strongly agree 16% 17% 17% 30%
Agree 27% 27% 31% 25%
Disagree 13% 13% 16% 8%
Strongly disagree 8% 10% 6% 10%
Don’t know 36% 33% 31% 26%

43% agree with the Queensland Government’s Wild Rivers laws and 21% disagree – and 36% don’t know.

Those most likely to agree are Greens voters (55%) and people on incomes over $1,000pw (48%).

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The fight for the kitchen table

Nov 9, 2010

First Published on The Drum 09/11/2010

Nations may rise and fall by the sweep of history but governments are decided at the kitchen table, where all politics becomes not just local, but personal.

This is the place where bills and mortgage payments are pored over, family budgets are scrutinised, jobs and school are discussed. It is the space in family life where things have to add up.

Anyone trying to dig Labor out of its current hole could start by turning their attention to the kitchen table, because if this week’s Essential Report is anything to go by, Labor is in the middle of an increasingly messy food-fight.
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Digital strategy for a Better State

Nov 9, 2010

The initial Better State site (betterstate.org.au) was built in October 2009 on a drupal platform.

We found that the site was too complex for people to take action, find content and created high barriers for revisitation and engagement.

We had a community of people who were linked to one or two services and were interested in how the umbrella campaign was running, but also wanted specific news and events from their delegates, union leaders and activists. They wanted to know about the service area they were involved with, not necessarily updates from all arms of the campaign.

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Better State – campaigning in a climate of certainty

Nov 9, 2010

You would have to completely disregard the polls, history and any semblance of common sense to predict a Labor victory in the March 2011 NSW election.

Although there’s no such thing as a sure bet in Australian politics, a NSW Coalition government in 2011 is about as close as you’re likely to get. (The bookies have Labor at $6.25 to win next year. You won’t find those sort of odds in any 2011 NRL fixture.)

This climate of certainty makes a traditional approach to election time campaigning impossible.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 8, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,783

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 39% 42% 41% 41% 42%
National 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Total Lib/Nat 42% 44% 44% 44% 46%
Labor 37% 41% 41% 41% 39%
Greens 11% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 7% 7%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

 

This week
Total Lib/Nat 50% 49% 50% 50% 51%
Labor 50% 51% 50% 50% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. Comments »

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