Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 25, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

* 1928 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 34%    
National 2%    
Total Lib/Nat 37% 44%
Labor 46% 56%
Greens 8%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 7%    

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data.   Comments »

Issues of importance

Jan 25, 2010

Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)

  One Two Three Total
Management of the economy 36% 17% 10% 63%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system  14% 17% 17% 48%
Australian jobs and protection of local industries 8% 13% 12% 33%
Political leadership 10% 7% 6% 23%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 5% 8% 10% 23%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 4% 5% 9% 18%
Protecting the environment 4% 7% 5% 16%
Addressing climate change 6% 5% 5% 16%
Controlling interest rates 3% 6% 6% 15%
Housing affordability 3% 4% 7% 14%
Ensuring a quality water supply 3% 4% 5% 12%
A fair industrial relations system 3% 4% 3% 10%
Security and the war on terrorism 2% 4% 3% 9%

 63% of people surveyed rate management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 48% that rate ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 33% that rate Australian jobs and protection of local industries as one of their three most important issues.

 10% rate a fair industrial relations system as one of their three most important issues that would decide how they vote in a Federal election and 9% rate security and the war on terrorism.  Comments »

Party best at

Jan 25, 2010

Q. Which party do you think is best at handling each of the following issues?

  Labor Liberal Labor margin No difference Don’t know Labor margin Oct 09
A fair industrial relations system 42% 23% +19% 19% 16% +27%
Addressing climate change 35% 16% +19% 29% 19% +18%
Protecting the environment 32% 15% +17% 34% 19% +21%
Australian jobs and protection of local industries 35% 22% +13% 26% 17% +17%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 32% 20% +12% 32% 17% +17%
Political leadership 36% 25% +11% 23% 16% +20%
Ensuring a quality water supply 24% 17% +7% 38% 20% +13%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system  27% 21% +6% 34% 19% +10%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 30% 24% +6% 28% 18% +8%
Housing affordability 23% 19% +4% 38% 20% +9%
Management of the economy 28% 35% -7% 20% 16%
Security and the war on terrorism 18% 25% -7% 38% 19% +2%
Controlling interest rates 20% 28% -8% 34% 18%

 Labor has its strongest lead over the Liberal Party when it comes to a fair industrial relations system (+19%), addressing climate change (+19%) and protecting the environment (+17%).   Labor trails the Liberal Party in terms of controlling interest rates (-8%), security and the war on terrorism (-7%) and management of the economy (-7%).  

 Since October 2009, Labor has lost the margin it had over the Liberal Party in some areas, most significantly in the areas of political leadership (-9%), a fair industrial relations system (-8%), ensuring a quality water supply (-6%).  

 Results followed party lines with Labor voters tending to favour the Labor Party and Liberal voters favouring the Liberal Party. Comments »

Liberal Party’s environmental/employment plan

Jan 25, 2010

Q. The Opposition Leader Tony Abbott recently announced a plan to employ 15,000 people at an annual cost of up to $750 million to work on large scale environmental projects. Do you support or oppose this plan?

  %
Total support 59%
Total oppose 15%
Strongly support 14%
Support 45%
Oppose 10%
Strongly oppose 5%
No opinion 26%

 Over half (59%) support Tony Abbott’s recently announced plan to employ 15,000 people at an annual cost of up to $750 million to work on large scale environmental projects, 15% oppose such a plan and 26% have no opinion.  

Coalition voters were more likely to support the plan (80%), while Labor voters were more likely to oppose the plan (25%).  52% of Labor voters and 70% of Green voters support the plan. 

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to support the plan (62%), as were males (61%). Comments »

Addressing climate change

Jan 25, 2010

Q. The Federal Government says placing a price on carbon is crucial to addressing climate change as there must be a strong incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors to achieve the cuts necessary. The Opposition says the Government’s plan to include a price on carbon as part of its proposed emissions trading scheme is nothing more than a new tax. Do you agree more with the Government or more with the Opposition?

  %
Agree more with the Government 30%
Agree more with the Opposition 45%
Don’t know 24%

 Just under half (48%) of those surveyed agree with the Opposition’s view that the Government’s plan to include a price on carbon as part of its proposed emissions trading scheme is nothing more than a new tax.   30% agree with the Federal Government’s view that placing a price on carbon is crucial to addressing climate change as there must be a strong incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors to achieve the cuts necessary.  Just under one quarter (24%) don’t know whether they agree with the Government or the Opposition on the issue of placing a price on carbon. 

 Labor voters were more likely to agree with the Government’s view (58%) while Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the Opposition (78%).  22% of Labor voters agree with the Opposition’s view that placing a price on carbon is nothing more than a new tax. 

 44% of Green voters agree with the Government and 37% of these same voters agree with the Opposition.  

 Males were more likely to agree with the Government (34%) while females were more likely to indicate they don’t know (28%).

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to agree with the Opposition’s view on the issue (60%) while those aged 18 – 24 were more likely to agree with the Government (38%). Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 18, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

*1915 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last report

21 Dec 09

Liberal 35%    
National 3%    
Total Lib/Nat 38% 44% +1%
Labor 45% 56% -1%
Greens 8%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 7%    

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data collected on the weeks of the 15 – 20 December 2009 and the 12 – 18 January 2010.   Comments »

Approval of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd

Jan 18, 2010

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

  12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10
Strongly approve 14% 17% 21% 14% 14% 13% 15% 14% 9% 10% 11%
Approve 52% 50% 50% 48% 48% 47% 51% 47% 47% 47% 44%
Disapprove 16% 15% 14% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19% 20% 20% 19%
Strongly disapprove 6% 8% 7% 11% 9% 10% 6% 13% 15% 12% 14%
Don’t know 11% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 11% 8% 10% 10% 12%
Total approve 66% 67% 71% 62% 62% 60% 66% 61% 56% 57% 55%
Total disapprove 22% 23% 21% 29% 29% 27% 23% 32% 35% 32% 33%

55% of people surveyed approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister, 33% disapprove.  His approval rating has seen a slight decrease since we last asked this question in December (-2%) and his disapproval rating has increased by one percent.  Rudd’s approval rating is the lowest it has been over the year that we have been tracking this question. 

Perception of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to approve of the job he is doing (91%), while Coalition voters were more likely to disapprove (74%).  20% of Coalition voters and 73% of Green voters approve of the job Rudd is doing as Prime Minister. Comments »

Approval of the Opposition Leader

Jan 18, 2010

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
  12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10
Strongly approve 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 7% 5%
Approve 37% 29% 25% 28% 20% 20% 24% 26% 23% 27% 32%
Disapprove 21% 26% 31% 28% 31% 30% 35% 30% 33% 18% 20%
Strongly disapprove 9% 17% 17% 21% 26% 28% 18% 20% 22% 18% 17%
Don’t know 29% 24% 24% 21% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19% 31% 26%
Total approve 41% 32% 28% 30% 24% 22% 27% 29% 25% 34% 37%
Total disapprove 30% 43% 48% 49% 57% 58% 53% 50% 55% 36% 37%

 37% of people approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and a further 37% disapprove.  Abbott’s approval rating has increased slightly since we last asked this question in December (+3%) and his disapproval rating has increased by one percent. 

Perception of the job Abbott is doing as Leader of the Opposition followed party lines – Coalition voters were more likely to approve (70%), while Labor voters were more likely to disapprove (50%), as were Green voters (70%).  26% of Labor voters approve of the job Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader. Comments »

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