Better Prime Minister

Oct 18, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Aug 10 20 Sep 10 18 Oct 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10
Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 47% 49% 92% 9% 81%   47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 35% 33% 2% 75% 4%   30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 6% 16% 15%   23%

 49% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a widening of the gap from 12% to 16% since last month’s figures. This is the largest gap since the 2 August survey.

 Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 50%/34% and women 49%/33%. Comments »

The Economy

Oct 18, 2010

 Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

  1 Dec 08 15 Jun 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10 29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10
Total better 21% 43% 66% 53% 54% 33% 40%
Total worse 61% 37% 15% 19% 19% 31% 30%
Get a lot better 2% 5% 8% 9% 9% 5% 6%
Get a little better 19% 38% 58% 44% 45% 28% 34%
Get a little worse 45% 28% 11% 14% 13% 23% 20%
Get a lot worse 16% 9% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10%
Stay much the same 13% 17% 15% 24% 22% 30% 24%
No opinion 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 6%

 40% think economic conditions in Australia will get better over the next 12 months and 30% think they will get worse – a net improvement of 8% since this question was last asked in June.

 Younger people are more optimistic than older people – of those aged under 35, 50% think conditions will get better and 20% worse.

 54% of Labor voters think conditions will get better and 15% worse while 32% of Coalition voters think conditions will get better and 42% worse. Comments »

Personal financial situation

Oct 18, 2010

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

  29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10
Total better 40% 29% 33%
Total worse 23% 31% 29%
Get a lot better 8% 5% 6%
Get a little better 32% 24% 27%
Get a little worse 17% 21% 21%
Get a lot worse 6% 10% 8%
Stay much the same 33% 37% 32%
No opinion 4% 4% 5%

 33% think their own personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months and 29% worse – 32% think they will stay much the same.

This is a little more optimistic than the June result – an increase from net -2% to +4%.

 Among full-time workers 41% think their situation will get better and 27% worse while those who are not working are more pessimistic – 27% better/32% worse/36% much the same. Comments »

Job security

Oct 18, 2010

 Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

  16 Feb 09 27 Apr 09 8 Jun 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10 29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10
Total concerned 62% 67% 52% 49% 45% 39% 43% 40%
Very concerned 22% 24% 13% 14% 12% 10% 9% 11%
Somewhat concerned 40% 43% 39% 35% 33% 29% 34% 29%
Not at all concerned 29% 23% 35% 40% 40% 45% 38% 42%
Don’t know 4% 5% 6% 6% 8% 7% 12% 10%
No employees in the immediate family 5% 5% 8% 5% 8% 9% 7% 7%

 

 40% were concerned that they or some member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so and 42% were not at all concerned – a net positive movement of 7% since the last survey in June.

 Full-time workers (40% concerned/48% not concerned) were more optimistic than part-time workers (53% concerened/37% not concerned). Comments »

Most important environmental problem

Oct 18, 2010

  Q. Which of these do you think is the most important environmental problem facing Australia today?

Q.  And which would you say is the second most important?

  Most important Second most important Total
Water supply 33% 20% 53%
The health of rivers and waterways 17% 21% 38%
Pollution 14% 17% 31%
Climate change 16% 14% 30%
Loss of native habitat 8% 11% 19%
Logging of native forests 4% 8% 12%
Greenhouse gases 2% 6% 8%
Don’t know 6% 2% 6%

Water supply (53%) and the health of rivers and waterways (38%) were considered the most important environmental problems facing Australia today.

Younger respondents were more likely to nominate climate change (36% of aged under 45) while 47% of those aged 45+ nominated the health of rivers and waterways. Water supply was the top issue for all segments except Green voters who nominated climate change as their most important issue (51%).

Murray Darling Basin

Oct 18, 2010

Q. The Murray-Darling system is in crisis because for decades state governments have allocated too much water from the river for irrigation, affecting the environment and communities further down the river. Which of the following Government actions do you most support?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Leave existing water allocations in place 17% 14% 24% 6%
Purchase water rights from irrigators willing to sell 36% 37% 39% 34%
Compulsorily buy water rights from irrigators and farmers 17% 19% 13% 36%
Don’t know 29% 29% 25% 24%

Only 17% believe that existing water allocations in the Murray-Darling system should be maintained and 53% think the Government should buy back water rights either compulsorily (17%) or from irrigators willing to sell (36%).

Support for maintaining existing allocations was a little higher among Liberal voters (24%). Among Greens voters 36% support compulsorily buying rights and 34% support buying rights from irrigators willing to sell. Comments »

It’s not too late to change the basis of voter choice

Oct 14, 2010

EMC’s consulting pollster Vic Fingerhut has penned this memo to Democrats in the lead-up to Congressional elections. His words of wisdom ring true here too.

***
Despite the feel good messages from the Democratic campaign committees, if messaging frames and context of voter choice on election day remain as they are today, we are heading for disaster.

Two weeks ago, I sent you a memo underlining the fact that while our opponents have a simple and clear frame for the short-term issues in the current election, we have had none.

And despite the millions spent on our side…nothing has changed.

Comments »

Holding centre ground can be war

Oct 12, 2010

First Published on The Drum 12/10/2010

Attempting to manage public confidence in the war in Afghanistan, the Labor Party is exposing its left flank in a way that calls into question three decades of political centrism.

These are challenging times for the ALP, with minority control in Canberra, hand-wringing election post mortems and flagging state administrations around the nation. A key theme appears to be ‘Labor has lost its way’.

But what is the ALP way? Since at least the Whitlam era, Labor orthodoxy has been that the occupation of the centre ground was a precondition for electoral success. Careers were built on the tough work of shifting Labor from ideological dogma to more pragmatic policies.

Comments »

Essential Report

Sign up for updates

Receive our weekly Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.