The Punch: Yes we will: remembering a campaign that never was

Aug 24, 2010

First Published on The Punch 24/08/2010

What a great night to be Labor. As the Party swept back into office with a mandate to lead global action on climate change it seemed like the entire nation had grown a few inches taller.

Smile Julia Gillard

Winning smile….if only. Photo: Gary Ramage

The energy on the ground made the excitement of Kevin 07’s electoral triumph seem like a mere entrée to the main, as thousands of young people on booths around Australia literally enthused swinging voters into embracing the future.

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Election Poll Wrap – Essential Wins Bragging Rights

Aug 23, 2010

All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.

However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.

Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.

This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.

Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 38.5% 36.2% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Coalition 43.5% 43.2% 41.5% 41% 42% 43%
Greens 11.4% 13.9% 13% 14% 13% 12%
Others 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 7% 7% 7%
Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.5
Actual current Newspoll Nielsen Galaxy Morgan Essential
Labor 2PP 50.7% 50.2% 52% 52 51% 51%
Difference 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3



Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 20, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

  First preference

 

2PP
Liberal 40%  
National 3%  
Total Lib/Nat 43% 49%
Labor 38% 51%
Greens 12%  
Family First 2%  
Other/Independent 5%  

NB.  The 5% of respondents who selected ‘don’t know’ are not included in these results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

Main reason for vote

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Which one of the following is the main reason why you will vote for that party?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Better at handling Australia’s economy 22% 14% 41% 2%
They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians 14% 16% 11% 17%
Better at looking after the interests people like me 13% 17% 10% 16%
More trustworthy than the other parties 9% 7% 5% 22%
They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties 9% 5% 17% 2%
They have a better leader 8% 16% 4% 2%
I always vote for the same party 6% 9% 5% 2%
They have better policies on things like education and health 5% 9% 3% 3%
They have better policies on things like environment and climate change 3% * 27%
They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers 2% 4% *
They have better policies on things like national security and immigration 1% 1% 3% 1%
No reason 7% 2% 2% 5%

Main reasons for voting Labor are looking after interests of people like me, better leader and representing the interests of all Australians. Main reasons for voting for the Coalition are handling the economy and more capable of governing. Greens voters rate policies on the environment and climate change and trustworthiness most important. Comments »

Firmness of vote

Aug 20, 2010

Q. How firm is your vote? 

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Very firm 56% 61% 68% 46%
Pretty firm but I might change my mind 31% 35% 27% 45%
Might consider another party and leader closer to the election 9% 4% 5% 9%
Don’t know 4% *

The Greens vote is still relatively soft compared to Labor and Coalition votes. 68% of Coalition voters say their vote is “very firm” compared to 61% of Labor voters and 46% of Greens voters. Comments »

Opinion of Julia Gillard

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   2 weeks ago
Total gone up 21% 42% 8% 22%   19%
Total gone down 40% 13% 67% 28%   42%
Gone up a lot 6% 16% * 3%   6%
Gone up a little 15% 26% 8% 19%   13%
Stayed the same 35% 44% 23% 48%   32%
Gone down a little 18% 12% 26% 15%   20%
Gone down a lot 22% 1% 41% 13%   22%
Don’t know 4% 1% 1% 2%   7%

21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.

This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.

By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »

Opinion of Tony Abbott

Aug 20, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   2 weeks ago
Total gone up 26% 6% 55% 5%   27%
Total gone down 37% 61% 9% 57%   27%
Gone up a lot 8% 1% 18%   8%
Gone up a little 18% 5% 37% 5%   19%
Stayed the same 34% 32% 37% 37%   38%
Gone down a little 15% 22% 7% 19%   11%
Gone down a lot 22% 39% 2% 38%   16%
Don’t know 3% 1% * 1%   8%

26% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 37% say it has gone down.

This is a decline from their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 27% up and 27% down.

 By gender – men 27% up/37% down and women 25% up/38% down. Comments »

The Punch: Seven cautionary tales for people who want to win

Aug 17, 2010

First Published on The Punch 17/08/2010

The last week of elections is white line fever time. It’s the moment when history is written and the stakes are amplified and everything counts from the fliers, to the bunting, to the final ads, to the body language.

Just over 14 million Australians are registered to vote this Saturday – and if you believe the figure that 10 per cent don’t make up their mind until election day that means that the 1.4 million people who will decide this election are still in play.

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