Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 25, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,873

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 36% 40% 42% 42% 41%
National 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 43% 44% 44% 44%
Labor 42% 42% 41% 40% 41%
Greens 9% 9% 8% 9% 8%
Other/Independent 10% 6% 7% 7% 7%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 46% 49% 49% 50% 50%
Labor 54% 51% 51% 50% 50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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War in Afghanistan

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –

Total

25 Oct 10

Labor Liberal Greens 30 March 09 21 June 10 11 Oct 10
Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan

10%

10%

12%

10%

14%

7%

13%

Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan

30%

31%

34%

23%

24%

24%

24%

Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan 47% 49% 45% 55% 50% 61% 49%
Don’t know 14% 10% 8% 12% 12% 8% 14%

47% say Australia should withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, 30% say we should keep the same number and 10% say we should increase troop numbers. The support for keeping the same number of troops in Afghanistan has increased by 6% since previous surveys.

Support for withdrawal is highest among Greens voters (55%) and those on higher incomes (54% of those earning over $1,600 per week).

Support for maintaining or increasing troop numbers is highest among Liberal/National voters (46%), men (46%) and those aged 55+ (48%).

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Leader and Party most trusted to handle the war in Afghanistan

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan?

Julia Gillard and the Labor Party 33%
Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party 32%
Bob Brown and the Greens 7%
Don’t know 28%

Respondents were split over which leader and party they would trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan. 33% prefer Julia Gillard and the Labor Party and 32% prefer Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party.

Those aged 55+ prefer the Liberal Party over the Labor Party 40% to 34%.

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Taking water for irrigation from Murray Darling

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Do you agree or disagree that the amount of water currently taken from the Murray-Darling river system for irrigation should be reduced?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total agree 49% 51% 47% 62%
Total disagree 20% 17% 30% 14%
Strongly agree 19% 21% 16% 33%
Agree 30% 30% 31% 29%
Disagree 13% 11% 18% 6%
Strongly disagree 7% 6% 12% 8%
Don’t know 31% 32% 23% 23%

49% agree that the amount of water currently taken from the Murray-Darling river system for irrigation should be reduced and 20% disagree – 31% could not give an opinion. All demographic groups show higher agreement than disagreement.

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Statements about Economic Impact

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Time is running out and strong action must be taken to restore the health of the Murray Darling river system even if it means some job losses or other economic impact 47% 52% 42% 74%
Protecting the economic well being of local communities and jobs must be the first priority in any decisions made about the Murray Darling river system 31% 28% 42% 13%
Don’t know 22% 20% 16% 13%

47% agreed that “strong action must be taken to restore the health of the Murray Darling river system even if it means some job losses or other economic impact “ while 31% agreed more with the statement “protecting the economic well being of local communities and jobs must be the first priority”.

A majority of Labor (52%) and Greens voters (74%) agreed that “strong action must be taken to restore the health of the Murray Darling river system even if it means some job losses or other economic impact” while Liberal/National voters were split (42%/42)%.

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Moving children out of detention centres

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Government’s decision to move children and their families out of immigration detention centres and allow them to live in the community while their cases are being processed?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 33% 42% 24% 63%
Total disapprove 53% 45% 67% 28%
Strongly approve 11% 15% 4% 39%
Approve 22% 27% 20% 24%
Disapprove 24% 22% 29% 12%
Strongly disapprove 29% 23% 38% 16%
Don’t know 13% 13% 9% 8%

53% disapproved the Federal Government’s decision to move children and their families out of immigration detention centres and allow them to live in the community while their cases are being processed and 33% approved.

63% of Greens voters approved, 67% of Liberal/National voters disapproved and Labor voters were split 42% approve/45% disapprove.

By gender – men 38% approve/50% disapprove, women 28% approve/57% disapprove.

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Asylum Seekers

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Do you think the Federal Labor Government is too tough or too soft on asylum seekers or is it taking the right approach?

This week Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens 12 July 10 4 April 10
Too tough 7% 9% 3% 28% 10% 6%
Too soft 63% 49% 83% 33% 56% 65%
Taking the right approach 18% 31% 7% 30% 21% 18%
Don’t know 12% 10% 7% 9% 13% 11%

63% of respondents believe that the Federal Labor Government is too soft on asylum seekers  (up 7% since the last survey in July), 7% think they are too tough and 18% think they are taking the right approach.

Only 31% of Labor voters and 30% of Greens voters think the Government is taking the right approach.

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Party trust to handle Asylum Seeker issue

Oct 25, 2010

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the issue of asylum seekers?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
The Labor Party 25% 57% 2% 38%
The Liberal Party 37% 8% 80% 8%
No difference 25% 27% 11% 46%
Don’t know 13% 8% 7% 8%

37% of respondents trust the Liberal Party most to handle the asylum seeker issue and 25% trust the Labor Party most.

57% of Labor voters trust the Labor Party most and 80% of Liberal/National voters trust the Liberal Party most. 46% of Greens voters and 55% of other voters think there is no difference between the Labor and Liberal Parties on the issue.

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