The Doddcast: Canberra Report 21st June

Jun 21, 2010

While Canberra doesn’t look like getting above 15 degrees this week, there’s a chance the term of this government is heating up.

Whether they’re currently half baked or have they been left too long, today’s poll shows that they’re the same stale position they’ve been in for the last week.

Kevin looks like spending the day explaining to the Chinese dep pres what rat fucker means.

Today’s opinion poll will fuel speculation about a mid September poll, with sources suggesting that Kevin Rudd is aware of fact that football finals exist but doesn’t think his team can do any worse than Andrew Johns. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 15, 2010

Federal politics – voting intention

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

1,850 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Liberal 32% 41% 39% 38% 38%
National 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 43% 41% 40% 41%
Labor 46% 38% 39% 37% 35%
Greens 10% 10% 9% 12% 14%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 8% 7% 8
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Total Lib/Nat 42% 50% 49% 48% 49%
Labor 58% 50% 51% 52% 51%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.
Comments »

Party Best at

Jun 15, 2010

Q. Which of the following parties – Labor, Liberal or Greens – do you think is the best party when it comes to –

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Representing the interests of Australian working people 42% 27% 6% 25%
Standing up to the big multinational corporations 32% 27% 13% 28%
Handling the economy in a way that best protects working people in Australia 36% 35% 4% 25%
Understanding the needs of the average Australian 29% 27% 9% 35%
Representing the interests of you and people like you 32% 34% 10% 24%
Having a vision for Australia’s future 29% 33% 9% 29%
Taking Australia forward, not backwards 29% 34% 9% 28%
Handling Australia’s relations with other countries 30% 38% 4% 27%
Handling Australia’s economy 30% 42% 3% 25%
Dealing with the issue of immigration 20% 41% 7% 32%
Being honest and ethical 19% 21% 15% 45%
Handling environmental and climate change issues 19% 19% 36% 27%

The Labor Party was thought to be better than the Liberal Party at “representing the interests of Australian working people” (42% to 27%) and “standing up to the big multinational corporations “ (32%/27%).

The Liberal Party was thought to be better than the Labor Party at “dealing with the issue of immigration “ (41% to 20%), “handling Australia’s economy” (42%/30%),  “handling Australia’s relations with other countries” (38%/30%),  “taking Australia forward, not backwards” (34%/29%) and “having a vision for Australia’s future” (33%/29%).

There was little difference between the Liberal and Labor Parties in terms of “handling the economy in a way that best protects working people in Australia”,  “understanding the needs of the average Australian” and “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

36% believed the Greens were best at “handling environmental and climate change issues” and 45% could not nominate a party best at “being honest and ethical”. Comments »

Influence of Groups

Jun 15, 2010

Q. How much influence do you think the following groups have on the policies of Australian political parties?

Too much About the right amount Not enough Don’t know
The media 53% 27% 5% 15%
Banks 50% 28% 5% 18%
Business lobby groups 40% 33% 5% 21%
Mining companies 40% 33% 10% 17%
Unions 40% 33% 12% 14%
Religious groups 38% 29% 11% 21%
Environment groups 25% 31% 29% 15%

About half the respondents believed that the media (53%) and banks (50%) have too much influence on the policies of Australian political parties.

40% believed that business lobby groups, mining companies and unions have too much influence.

Only 25% thought environmental groups have too much influence and 29% think they have not enough influence.

There were substantial differences by party preference on the influence of business lobby groups (Labor 52% too much, Lib/Nat 28%), unions (26%/61%), and mining companies (57%/26%). However, there was little difference on the perceived influence of the media (Labor 57% too much, Lib/Nat 56%) and banks (53%/51%). Comments »

Trust in Groups

Jun 15, 2010

Q. And how much trust do you have in the following groups to represent the interests of people like you?

Total a lot/some trust A lot of trust Some trust A little trust No trust at all Don’t know
Environment groups 38% 8% 30% 28% 22% 11%
Unions 33% 8% 25% 27% 30% 10%
Business lobby groups 21% 4% 17% 30% 35% 15%
Religious groups 20% 5% 15% 24% 43% 13%
Mining companies 20% 2% 18% 27% 40% 13%
Banks 15% 2% 13% 26% 49% 10%
The media 14% 1% 13% 33% 43% 9%

38% said they have a lot or some trust in environment groups and 33% have a lot/some trust in unions. Banks (15%) and the media (14%) were the least trusted groups.

49% had no trust at all in banks and 43% had no trust at all in religious groups and the media.

51% of Labor voters have trust in unions and 47% have trust in environment groups. The most trusted groups for Liberal/National voters are mining companies (32%) and business lobby groups (31%). Comments »

RSPT

Jun 15, 2010

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view in relation to the Government’s proposed resources super profits tax?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat
The new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs 42% 16% 72%
Mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax. 40% 69% 16%
Don’t know 17% 15% 11%

Respondents were split over which statement best described their view of the Government’s proposed resources super profits tax – 42% agreed “the new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs” and 40% agreed “mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax”.

Opinions were strongly related to party preference – 69% of Labor voters agreed that “mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax” and 72% of Liberal/National voters agreed that “the new tax will result in mining companies cutting back on their investments in Australia and there will be a significant loss of Australian jobs”.

53% of those on low incomes (<$600pw) agreed that “mining companies will continue to make large profits. They are just trying to avoid paying their fair share of tax”. Comments »

Opinion of Leaders

Jun 15, 2010

Q. From the following list of current and recent leaders of the Liberal/Labor Party – rate each in terms of whether you think they were a good or poor leader of their party.

Total good Total poor Very good Good Average Poor Very poor Don’t know
Tony Abbott 30% 34% 7% 23% 29% 14% 20% 7%
Malcolm Turnbull 28% 33% 6% 22% 32% 20% 13% 8%
Brendan Nelson 13% 44% 2% 11% 33% 28% 16% 11%
John Howard 51% 26% 27% 24% 18% 11% 15% 5%
Kevin Rudd 38% 34% 10% 28% 23% 15% 19% 4%
Kim Beazley 29% 29% 7% 22% 36% 17% 12% 6%
Mark Latham 7% 62% 2% 5% 23% 26% 36% 8%
Simon Crean 9% 47% 2% 7% 32% 29% 18% 12%
Paul Keating 40% 26% 14% 26% 27% 12% 14% 8%

Overall, John Howard (51% good/26% poor) was considered the best Liberal Party leader of recent times and Paul Keating (40%/26%) the best Labor leader.

However the current leaders – Kevin Rudd (38% good/34% poor) and Tony Abbott (30%/34%) – were both considered better than the leaders they succeeded.

Among Liberal/National voters Tony Abbott was rated good by 63%, compared to John Howard at 86% and Malcolm Turnbull at 37%.

Among Labor voters Kevin Rudd was rated good by 78%, compared to Paul Keating at 58% and Kim Beazley at 40%. Comments »

Asylum Seekers

Jun 15, 2010

Q. Which of the following comes is closest to your view?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees 31% 26% 38% 22%
Asylum seekers arriving by boat should only be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees 59% 67% 56% 66%
All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be allowed to stay 4% 4% 2% 10%
Don’t know 6% 3% 4% 2%

59% agreed with the statement that “asylum seekers arriving by boat should only be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees” and 31% agreed that “all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees”. Only 4% (including 10% of Greens voters) agreed that “all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be allowed to stay”.

Women were more likely to think genuine refugees should be allowed to stay (61% compared to 57% of men). 28% of those aged 55+ thought all asylum seekers should be sent back compared to 33% of those aged under 55. Comments »

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