The Senate

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
The Government has a majority in the Senate 29% 41% 33% 5%
The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate 10% 3% 21% 2%
The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate 27% 25% 27% 35%
The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate 12% 14% 3% 50%
Don’t know 22% 18% 16% 7%

 Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.

 85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »

Tony Abbott’s Immigration Policy

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Tony Abbott has proposed to cut immigration from around 300,000 a year to 170,000? Do you approve or disapprove of this cut to immigration?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
Total approve 64% 52% 91% 38%
Total disapprove 22% 32% 6% 49%
Strongly approve 33% 20% 56% 16%
Approve 31% 32% 35% 22%
Disapprove 15% 22% 5% 30%
Strongly disapprove 7% 10% 1% 19%
Don’t know 14% 16% 3% 13%

 64% approve Tony Abbott’s proposal to cut immigration and 22% oppose. There is strong support for cutting immigration from Liberal/National voters (91%) – while Labor voters (52% approve/32% disapprove) and Greens voters (38%/49%) are split. Comments »

Best to handle Immigration Issues

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Which leader and party do you trust most to handle immigration issues?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party 35% 6% 83% 9%
Julia Gillard and the Labor Party 23% 50% 3% 27%
No difference 31% 35% 11% 56%
Don’t know 10% 9% 3% 8%

 Overall, Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party are trusted most to handle immigration issues (35% to 23%). 31% think there is no difference between the major parties on immigration.

 83% of Liberal/National voters trust Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party most and 50% of Labor voters trust Julia Gillard and the Labor Party. 56% of Greens voters think there is no difference. Comments »

The Punch: Why the election has got nothing to do with you

Jul 27, 2010

First Published on The Punch 27/07/2010

If you are a political junkie like me, chances are you found Sunday night’s debate a little like watching a nil-nil draw without even the climax of the penalty shoot-out. About the only thing more boring than the debate is the pundits who say the debate was boring.

It’s the curse of Australian elections, if you are engaged in politics and have a defined set of ideological values, then the campaign has very little to do with you.

Put another way, if you are reading The Punch the parties don’t really care what you think. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 26, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

1,747 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 34% 36% 36% 37% 37%
National 2% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 37% 39% 38% 39% 39%
Labor 46% 42% 41% 41% 41%
Greens 8% 9% 13% 13% 13%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 6% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 46% 45% 45% 45%
Labor 56% 54% 55% 55% 55%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Approval of Julia Gillard

Jul 26, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
30 Mar 09 29 Jun 09 28 Sept 09 14 Dec 09 29 Mar 10 31 May 10 5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10
Total approve 71% 62% 66% 57% 53% 41% 48% 52% 49%
Total disapprove 21% 29% 23% 32% 36% 47% 27% 30% 33%
Strongly approve 21% 14% 15% 10% 12% 7% 14% 11% 12%
Approve 50% 48% 51% 47% 41% 34% 34% 41% 37%
Disapprove 14% 18% 17% 20% 22% 25% 13% 17% 19%
Strongly disapprove 7% 9% 6% 12% 14% 22% 14% 13% 14%
Don’t know 9% 11% 11% 10% 12% 12% 26% 18% 17%

49% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 33% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 3% and disapproval increased by 3%. 94% of Labor voters approve and only 2% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 18% approve and 70% disapprove.

By gender – men 51% approve/36% disapprove and women 49% approve/30% disapprove. Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jul 26, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10 28 Jun 10 5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10
Total approve 25% 34% 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37% 40% 35%
Total disapprove 55% 36% 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47% 44% 46%
Strongly approve 2% 7% 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8% 6% 6%
Approve 23% 27% 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29% 34% 29%
Disapprove 33% 18% 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23% 22% 22%
Strongly disapprove 22% 18% 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24% 22% 24%
Don’t know 19% 31% 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16% 16% 19%

35% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 46% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 5% and disapproval increased by 2%. 78% of Liberal/National voters approve and 11% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 15% approve and 74% disapprove.

There were no substantial differences by gender – men 37% approve/48% disapprove and women 33% approve/44% disapprove. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Jul 26, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 94% 9% 74% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 2% 69% 6% 30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 5% 22% 20% 23%

51% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 26% prefer Tony Abbott – a slight widening of the gap between the two (from 23% to 25%) since polled last week.

Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 69% to 9% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 74% to 6%.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 50%/29% and women 51%/23%. Comments »

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