Federal voting intention

May 2, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 25/4/17 2 weeks ago 18/4/17 4 weeks ago 4/4/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 35% 34% 33% 35%
National 2% 3% 3% 2%
Total Liberal/National 38%   37% 36% 37%   42.0%
Labor 37%   36% 37% 36%   34.7%
Greens 9% 10% 10% 10% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3% 3% 3% 3%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 8% 8% 8%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 7% 6% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 47%   47% 46% 47%   50.4%
Labor 53%   53% 54% 43%   49.6%

Sample = 1,801. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Direction of economy

May 2, 2017

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec ‘16
Total Good 30%   28% 44% 22% 19%   23%
Total Poor 29%   30% 22% 38% 43%   36%
Very good 3%   4% 4% 1%   2%
Good 27%   24% 40% 22% 18%   21%
Neither good nor poor 36%   37% 33% 35% 37%   37%
Poor 23%   24% 17% 27% 34%   28%
Very poor 6%   6% 5% 11% 9%   8%
Don’t know 5%   4% 1% 5% 2%   4%

Overall, 30% thought that the state of the economy was good (up 7% from December). 29% thought it was bad (down 7%).

44% of Liberal/National voters thought the state of the economy was good, compared to 28% of Labor voters, 22% of Greens voters, and 19% of other/independent voters.

Direction of economy

May 2, 2017

 Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec ‘16
The right direction 29%   25% 45% 18% 16%   26%
The wrong direction 41%   48% 31% 56% 55%   45%
Don’t know 30%   28% 23% 26% 29%   29%


Overall, 29% thought that the economy is heading in the right direction (up 3% from December), and 41% thought it was heading in the wrong direction (down 4%).

Liberal/National voters were more likely to think the economy is heading in the right direction (45%) than Labor (25%), Greens (18%) and independent/other voters (16%).

Men were more likely to think that the economy was heading in the right direction (36%) than women (23%).

Federal budget priorities

May 2, 2017

Q. The Federal Budget will be announced on Tuesday 9th Do you think the Government should increase, decrease or keep spending the same for –

  Increase spending Keep spending the same Decrease spending Don’t know
Health care 62% 26% 4% 8%
Education 54% 33% 4% 9%
Age pensions 48% 36% 5% 11%
Public transport infrastructure 47% 39% 6% 8%
Protecting Australian jobs 44% 41% 6% 8%
More affordable housing 44% 38% 9% 8%
Renewable energy 41% 37% 14%  9%
Assistance to the needy in Australia 38% 46% 8% 8%
Building highways, roads 38% 44% 9% 9%
Scientific research 37% 43% 11% 9%
Anti-terrorism 32% 49% 11% 9%
Environmental protection 30% 44% 17% 9%
Assistance to the unemployed 22% 48% 21% 9%
Military/defence 20% 46% 24% 10%
Assistance to the needy in the rest of the world 11% 30% 50% 9%
Assistance to businesses 10% 48% 32% 10%

The only spending areas with majority support for increasing spending were health care (62% support) and education (54%). Only 4% thought spending should be decreased for each of these areas.

 

The spending areas with the highest support for decreasing spending were assistance to the needy in the rest of the world (50% support), assistance to businesses (32%) and military/defence (24%).

Federal budget impact

May 2, 2017

Q. In general, do you expect the Federal Budget, will be good or bad for the following?

  Total good Total bad   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know Total Good (May ’16) Total Bad (May ’16)
People who are well off 54% 7% 23% 31% 27% 5% 2% 13% 49% 10%
Australian business 43% 8% 7% 36% 34% 6% 2% 15%
The economy overall 21% 24% 2% 19% 41% 20% 4% 14% 28% 22%
Australian families 14% 36% 2% 12% 36% 29% 7% 14% 16% 36%
Average working people 12% 35% 1% 11% 39% 28% 7% 14% 21% 35%
Younger Australians 11% 33% 2% 9% 42% 25% 8% 15% 25% 28%
People of lower incomes 11% 48% 2% 9% 28% 32% 16% 13% 15% 46%
You personally 10% 30% 2% 8% 47% 23% 7% 13% 15% 26%
Older Australians 10% 45% 2% 8% 33% 32% 13% 13% 11% 51%

 

44% thought that the Federal Budget would be good for people who are well off (down 5% from last year’s budget). 43% thought it would be good for Australian business, and 21% thought it would be good for the economy overall (down 7%). Less than 15% thought the budget would be good for any another group.

Only 10% thought the federal budget would be good for them personally (down 5% from last year’s budget), and 30% thought it would be bad for them (up 4%).

Malcolm Turnbull

May 2, 2017

Q. How confident are you that Malcolm Turnbull can deliver the following?

  Total Confident Total Not Confident Very confident Somewhat confident Not very confident Not at all confident Don’t know
Tougher citizenship requirements 55% 31% 12% 43% 21% 10% 13%
Tighter regulations for foreign workers 52% 35% 12% 40% 23% 12% 12%
Secure borders 47% 39% 9% 38% 26% 13% 13%
Stand up for Australia’s interests internationally 36% 51% 8% 28% 32% 19% 13%
A strong economy 31% 56% 4% 27% 36% 20% 12%
Jobs and growth 31% 58% 5% 26% 39% 19% 11%
A balanced budget 29% 59% 4% 25% 36% 23% 12%
Action on climate change 24% 61% 4% 20% 36% 25% 16%


Respondents were most confident that Malcolm Turnbull could deliver tougher citizenship requirements (55% confident) and tighter regulations for foreign workers (52%).

They were least confident that Turnbull could deliver action on climate change (61% not confident), a balanced budget (59%), jobs and growth (58%), and a strong economy (56%).

Support for compulsory voting

May 2, 2017

Q. Australia has a compulsory voting system. Other nations like the US and UK have voluntary voting. Do you think voting in Federal and State elections should be compulsory or voluntary?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Voting should be compulsory 66%   70% 74% 72% 51%
Voting should be voluntary 27%   24% 24% 21% 44%
Don’t know 7%   6% 2% 6% 5%


66% thought that voting should be compulsory. Those most likely to think that voting should be compulsory were those aged 65+ (78%) and Liberal/National voters (74%).

27% thought that voting should be voluntary. Those most likely to think that voting should be voluntary were those independent/other party voters (44%), those aged 35-44 (33%) and Queenslanders (33%).

Effect of compulsory voting

May 2, 2017

Q. If voting were voluntary, how likely would you be to vote in Federal and State elections?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug ‘16
Total Likely 80%   83% 91% 85% 78%   72%
Total Unlikely 12%   12% 8% 6% 17%   19%
I would definitely vote 58%   61% 67% 66% 55%   48%
It is likely I would vote 22%   22% 24% 19% 23%   24%
It is unlikely I would vote 9%   8% 7% 5% 13%   13%
I would definitely not vote 3%   4% 1% 1% 4%   6%
Don’t know 7%   5% 2% 8% 6%   8%

 

80% said they would be likely to vote in a federal election, even if voting were voluntary (up 8% from August 2016), and 12% said they would be unlikely to vote if voting were voluntary (down 7%).

Those who said they were most likely to vote if voting were voluntary were Liberal/National voters (91% total likely) and those earning more than $104,000 per year (89%).

Those who said they were least likely to vote if voting were voluntary were than earning less than $31,200 per year (22% total unlikely) and those who did not complete year 12 (20%).

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