Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 11, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 Sample size = 1,845 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election
7 Sep 13
  4 weeks ago
14/7/15
2 weeks ago 28/7/15 Last week
4/8/15
This week 11/8/15
Liberal   38% 36% 36% 38%
National 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 45.6% 41% 40% 39% 40%
Labor 33.4% 38% 38% 38% 39%
Greens 8.6% 11% 11% 12% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 8%

 

2 Party Preferred Election
7 Sep 13
  4 weeks ago
14/7/15
2 weeks ago
28/7/15
Last week
4/8/15
This week 11/8/15
Liberal National 53.5% 48% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 46.5% 52% 53% 53% 53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 11, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Lab Vote Lib/
Nat
Vote Grn Vote Other   Sep 2013 June 2014 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015
Total approve 38% 12% 82% 6% 23%   41% 35% 31% 33% 36% 39% 37%
Total disapprove 53% 82% 10% 91% 63%   36% 58% 56% 58% 54% 50% 53%
Strongly approve 9% 2% 22% 1% 2% 14% 10% 7% 7% 10% 11% 11%
Approve 29% 10% 60% 5% 21% 27% 25% 24% 26% 26% 28% 26%
Disapprove 22% 30% 9% 19% 33% 13% 18% 22% 28% 25% 23% 24%
Strongly disapprove 31% 52% 1% 72% 40% 23% 40% 34% 30% 29% 27% 29%
Don’t know 10% 6% 7% 3% 4% 23% 7% 12% 9% 11% 12% 10%

38% of respondents approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – up 1% since the last time this question was asked in July – and 53% disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing (no change). This represents a 1-point change in his net rating from -16 to -15.

82% (up 1%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 10% (down 3%) disapproving. 82% of Labor voters and 91% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.

By gender men were 41% approve/53% disapprove and women 34% approve/53% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Aug 11, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Lab Vote Lib/
Nat
Vote Grn Vote Other   Nov 2013 June 2014 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015
Total approve 29% 56% 17% 20% 17% 31% 38% 34% 33% 32% 32% 27%
Total disapprove 52% 26% 73% 60% 76% 27% 40% 39% 42% 41% 45% 52%
Strongly approve 4% 10% 2% 2% 4% 5% 7% 5% 6% 4% 6% 5%
Approve 25% 46% 15% 18% 13% 26% 31% 29% 27% 28% 26% 22%
Disapprove 31% 23% 34% 46% 41% 17% 22% 21% 25% 23% 27% 28%
Strongly disapprove 21% 3% 39% 14% 35% 10% 18% 18% 17% 18% 18% 24%
Don’t know 19% 18% 11% 19% 8% 43% 22% 27% 25% 27% 22% 21%

29% (up 2%) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 52% (no change) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -25 to -23.

56% (up 6%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 26% (down 3%) disapprove.

32% of men and 27% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 55% of men and 49% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Aug 11, 2015

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten? 

  Total   Vote Lab Vote Lib/
Nat
Vote Grn Vote Other   Oct 2013 June 2014 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015
Tony Abbott 36% 9% 83% 3% 24% 41% 36% 33% 32% 35% 38% 37%
Bill Shorten 32% 68% 4% 58% 15% 22% 40% 37% 35% 32% 33% 30%
Don’t know 31% 23% 14% 40% 61% 37% 24% 30% 33% 33% 29% 33%

36% (down 1% since July) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 32% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

37% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 33% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Tony Abbott 36% to 32%.

Bronwyn Bishop

Aug 11, 2015

Do you think Bronwyn Bishop should now resign from Parliament or remain in Parliament? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Should resign from Parliament 66% 78% 52% 80% 77%
Should remain in Parliament 18% 9% 35% 12% 11%
Don’t know 16% 13% 13% 8% 12%

66% think the former Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, should resign from Parliament and 18% think she should remain in Parliament.

A slight majority of Liberal/National voters think she should resign from Parliament.

Forms of intolerance

Aug 11, 2015

Q. For each of the following forms of intolerance, please indicate to what extent you think it is a problem in Australia. 

  Total large/ moderate   Large prob. Mod. prob. Small prob. Not a prob.   Don’t know   Sep 12  Total large/ mod. Jun 13  Total large/ mod. Feb 14  Total large/ mod. Jun 15  Total large/ mod.
Racism against people from other countries 60% 22% 38% 28% 9% 4% 71% 69% 64% 58%
Racism against indigenous Australians 54% 19% 35% 29% 12% 4% 51%
Sexism 47% 14% 33% 38% 10% 6% 45% 52% 51% 44%
Homophobia 47% 13% 34% 32% 13% 7% 50% 51% 47% 42%
Religious intolerance 53% 18% 35% 30% 11% 5% 65% 54% 51% 56%
Ageism 48% 17% 31% 33% 12% 8% 44% 46% 49% 49%

47% think homophobia is a major/moderate problem in Australia – up 5% since June.

60% think that racism against people from other countries is a major/moderate problem in Australia – and 54% think racism against indigenous Australians is a major/moderate problem. These figures have not changed substantially since June.

Adam Goodes

Aug 11, 2015

Q. Do you think the people who booed Adam Goodes were being racist or not being racist?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Being racist 29% 35% 22% 53% 18%
Not being racist 45% 40% 59% 21% 58%
Don’t know 26% 24% 19% 26% 24%

29% think that the people who booed Adam Goodes were being racist or and 45% think they were not being racist.

A majority (59%) of Liberal/National voters thought they were not being racist while most (53%) Greens voters though they were being racist.

Those most likely to think they were being racist were aged 18-34 (37%) and those with a university degree (37%).

Penalty rates

Aug 11, 2015

Do you approve or disapprove of the Productivity Commission recommendation to cut Sunday penalty rates to the same level as Saturday rates for workers in hospitality, entertainment and retail? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Full time worker Part time worker
Total approve 32% 24% 51% 21% 32% 40% 27%
Total disapprove 54% 65% 40% 66% 57% 47% 62%
Strongly approve 9% 6% 16% 4% 7% 11% 5%
Approve 23% 18% 35% 17% 25% 29% 22%
Disapprove 25% 29% 21% 31% 19% 22% 31%
Strongly disapprove 29% 36% 19% 35% 38% 25% 31%
Don’t know 14% 11% 10% 13% 12% 13% 11%

32% approve of the Productivity Commission recommendation to cut Sunday penalty rates to the same level as Saturday rates for workers in hospitality, entertainment and retail and 54% disapprove.

About half Liberal/National voters approve but other voter groups strongly disapprove.

47% of fulltime workers and 62% of part-time workers disapprove. 57% of people earning less than $1,000 pw disapprove.

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