Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 28, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? 

Sample size = 1,793 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

31/3/15

2 weeks ago 14/4/15 Last week

21/4/15

This week 28/4/15
Liberal   36% 37% 37% 36%
National 4% 3% 3% 4%
Total Liberal/National 45.6% 40% 41% 41% 40%
Labor 33.4% 40% 39% 39% 39%
Greens 8.6% 10% 10% 11% 10%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 1% 2% 1% 2%
Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

 

2 Party Preferred Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

31/3/15

2 weeks ago 14/4/15 Last week

21/4/15

This week 28/4/15
Liberal National 53.5% 47% 48% 48% 47%
Labor 46.5% 52% 52% 52% 53%

The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Electing small parties to the Senate

Apr 28, 2015

Q. The Coalition, Labor and the Greens all support changes that would make it harder for small parties to be elected to Senate. Would you approve or disapprove of such changes?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 40% 35% 62% 28% 19%
Total disapprove 33% 34% 21% 49% 72%
Strongly approve 18% 11% 35% 5% 12%
Approve 22% 24% 27% 23% 7%
Disapprove 21% 23% 16% 26% 35%
Strongly disapprove 12% 11% 5% 23% 37%
Don’t know 27% 32% 18% 23% 10%

40% approve of changes that would make it harder for small parties to be elected to Senate and 33% disapprove.

Liberal/National voters strongly approve (62%), Labor voters are evenly split (35%/34%) and Greens and other voters tend to disapprove.

Respondents aged under 35 were more likely to disapprove (29% approve/37% disapprove) while those aged 45+ approved (48% approve/29% disapprove).

Impact of small parties in the Senate

Apr 28, 2015

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Having small parties in the Senate is good for democracy 42% 47% 29% 65% 76%
Having small parties in the Senate makes government too unstable 35% 28% 57% 19% 18%
Don’t know 23% 26% 14% 16% 7%

42% think that having small parties in the Senate is good for democracy and 35% think that it makes government too unstable. A majority of Liberal/national voters think it makes government too unstable while all other voters tend to think it is good for democracy.

A majority of Liberal/national voters think it makes government too unstable while all other voters tend to think it is good for democracy.

Child vaccination

Apr 28, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision to not give family tax and childcare benefits to parents who do not have their children vaccinated?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women   Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Total approve 77% 76% 90% 70% 69% 76% 77% 70% 80% 81%
Total disapprove 12% 13% 6% 17% 25% 13% 11% 12% 12% 10%
Strongly approve 49% 47% 61% 36% 44% 48% 49% 41% 52% 53%
Approve 28% 29% 29% 34% 25% 28% 28% 29% 28% 28%
Disapprove 7% 8% 4% 14% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6%
Strongly disapprove 5% 5% 2% 3% 17% 6% 4% 4% 5% 4%
Don’t know 11% 11% 5% 12% 7% 11% 12% 17% 8% 9%

77% approve of the Government’s decision to not give family tax and childcare benefits to parents who do not have their children vaccinated and only 12% disapprove.

80% of those aged 35-54 approve.

Confidence in Government to eliminate deficit

Apr 28, 2015

The Government says that while the budget deficit is not likely to fall significantly in the near future, it is on the right track to return to surplus. How confident are you that the Government has an effective plan to eliminate the budget deficit?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total very/somewhat confident 36% 18% 71% 14% 20%
Total not very/at all confident 52% 71% 24% 75% 72%
Very confident 9% 3% 21% 3% 4%
Somewhat confident 27% 15% 50% 11% 16%
Not very confident 28% 35% 18% 28% 38%
Not at all confident 24% 36% 6% 47% 34%
Don’t know 13% 12% 6% 11% 8%

Only 9% are very confident that the Government has an effective plan to eliminate the budget deficit. 27% are somewhat confident and 52% are not very or not at all confident.

71% of Liberal/National voters are very/somewhat confident but a substantial majority of all other voters are not confident.

Importance of returning budget to surplus

Apr 28, 2015

Q. How important is it that the Government returns the budget to surplus?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Very important 31% 24% 45% 15% 30%
Somewhat important 40% 36% 45% 37% 43%
Not very important 14% 22% 5% 28% 18%
Not at all important 6% 8% 2% 15% 6%
Don’t know 9% 10% 3% 4% 4%

31% think it is very important to return the budget to surplus and 40% think it is somewhat important. 45% of Liberal/National voters think it is very important compared to 24% of Labor voters. 

Timeframe for returning budget to surplus

Apr 28, 2015

Q. And what do you think would be a reasonable timeframe to return the budget to surplus?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
1-2 years 6% 6% 5% 4% 6%
3-5 years 45% 36% 62% 31% 50%
6-10 years 24% 29% 19% 33% 21%
More than 10 years 9% 13% 5% 17% 10%
Don’t know 16% 16% 9% 15% 13%

45% think that 3-5 years is a reasonable timeframe in which to return the budget to surplus. Only 6% think it should be returned to surplus in the next 1-2 years.

67% of Liberal/National voters think it should be returned to surplus within the next 5 years compared to 42% of labor voters.

Gap between rich and poor

Apr 28, 2015

Q. In your view is the gap between rich and poor in Australia getting bigger or smaller?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Getting bigger 70% 80% 56% 86% 82%
Getting smaller 5% 4% 8% 7% 4%
Staying about the same 17% 9% 30% 5% 9%
Don’t know 8% 7% 6% 2% 5%

70% think that the gap between rich and poor in Australia is getting bigger. Only 5% think it is getting smaller and 17% think it is staying much the same.

A majority of all voter groups think it is getting bigger.

There were not major differences across income groups. 70% of those on incomes over $1,600 pw think the gap is getting bigger.

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