Population Growth

Jul 5, 2010

Q. On average, Australia’s population increases by about 300,000 per year (less than 2%). Do you think this is too high, too low or about right?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Too high 48% 44% 52% 59%
Too low 4% 3% 6% 7%
About right 35% 39% 35% 31%
Don’t know 12% 13% 6% 3%

Nearly half (48%) believe that the current rate of population growth is too high and only 4% think it is too low – 35% think it is about right.

Labor voters are split (44% too high compared to 42% about right or too low), but a majority of Liberal/National voters (52%) and Greens voters (59%) think it is too high.

The Punch: Leadership change should spark primary rethink

Jun 29, 2010

First Published on The Punch 29th June 2010

The Australian public’s reaction to last week’s execution of their Prime Minister came in two courses. The first: “Don’t break the eggs!”  The second: “Nice omelette!”

By chance, I was observing focus groups on the night Rudd was rolled and the general feeling was one of surprise, anger, even outage, “it’s our job to throw out a leader, not their’s”, a sense that something fundamentally undemocratic was occurring.

But more remarkable than this emotional reaction, was the fact that it was so fleeting, having vented people who ready to move on and embrace our first female Prime Minister.

This strange dynamic is backed in this week’s Essential Report, which finds 40 per cent of voters disapprove of the takeover, yet finds just 24 per cent say they are less likely to vote Labor because of it. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 28, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

1,803sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Liberal 34% 39% 38% 37% 36%
National 3% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 37% 41% 41% 40% 39%
Labor 47% 39% 35% 38% 42%
Greens 8% 9% 14% 11% 9%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 6% 8% 8% 8% 7%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

Total Lib/Nat 43% 49% 49% 48% 46%
Labor 57% 51% 51% 52% 54%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »

Changing Leaders – Approval

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Julia Gillard replacing Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party and Prime Minister?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat
Total approve 47% 68% 36%
Total disapprove 40% 23% 60%
Strongly approve 15% 27% 10%
Approve 32% 41% 26%
Disapprove 19% 11% 26%
Strongly disapprove 21% 12% 34%
Don’t know 12% 9% 5%

Sample = 818

47% approved the change from Kevin Rudd to Julia Gillard as Prime Minister and 40% disapproved. Opinions reflected political party preferences. Labor voters strongly approved the change by 68% to 23% while 60% of Liberal/National voters disapproved and 36% approved. There were no significant differences by gender. However, older respondents were more likely to approve than younger respondents – 55% of those aged 55+ approved and 37% disapproved. Comments »

Changing Leaders – Likelihood of Voting Labor

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Does having Julia Gillard as Prime Minister make you more or less likely to vote for the Labor Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total more likely 26% 44% 11% 31%
Total less likely 24% 11% 38% 22%
Much more likely 10% 24% 1% 5%
A bit more likely 16% 20% 10% 26%
A bit less likely 8% 8% 6% 12%
Much less likely 16% 3% 32% 10%
Makes no difference 41% 40% 47% 40%
Don’t know 8% 5% 3% 7%

Sample = 818

In aggregate, the results indicate the change will have little impact on voting intentions. 41% say it makes no difference to their vote, 26% say they are more likely to vote Labor and 24% less likely. Among Labor voters 44% say they are more likely to vote Labor and 11% less likely.

Greens voters were overall a little more positive about voting Labor – 31% more likely and 22% less likely. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat 21 Jun 10
Julia Gillard 49% 86% 12% 50%
Tony Abbott 29% 4% 73% 32%
Don’t know 22% 11% 12% 18%

Sample = 818

49% preferred Julia Gillard as Prime Minister and 29% preferred Tony Abbott – similar to the results from last week before Julia Gillard became Prime Minister. This is also slightly better than last week’s result for Kevin Rudd when he was preferred over Tony Abbott by 47% to 30%. Men preferred Julia Gillard 47%/33% and women 51%/25%.  Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10 28 Jun 10
Total approve 25% 34% 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40%
Total disapprove 55% 36% 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39%
Strongly approve 2% 7% 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9%
Approve 23% 27% 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31%
Disapprove 33% 18% 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20%
Strongly disapprove 22% 18% 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19%
Don’t know 19% 31% 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20%

Tony Abbott has achieved a net positive approval rating for the first time since February – 40% approve (up 5%) and 39% disapprove (down 11%).

83% Liberal/National voters approved of Tony Abbott and 11% disapproved. Comments »

Next Federal Election

Jun 28, 2010

Q. The next Federal election can be held any time up to April next year. When do you think the next Federal election should be held?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
In the next 2 or 3 months 28% 18% 43% 16%
Towards the end of the year 41% 45% 41% 42%
Early next year 21% 26% 13% 39%
Don’t know 11% 11% 3% 3%

41% said their preferred timing for the next election was towards the end of the year and 28% preferred the election to be held in the next 2 or 3 months. Labor voters were more likely to prefer an election towards the end of the year (45%) but 43% of Liberal/National voters wanted it in the next 2 or 3 months. Comments »

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