The Punch: 10 reasons we want to go back to the polls

Sep 7, 2010

First Published on The Punch 07/09/2010

Just when it looked like the prospect of a hung Parliament had taken us to a new paradigm of political discourse, where nice trumps nasty and diversity of opinion is respected, the public has sent a clear message: enough already!

After railing against stage-managed elections, two weeks of introspection and pandering to the wishes of non-aligned members has the public calling for a recommencement of hostilities.

According to this week’s Essential Report, a majority of voters want a new election – and even more (70 per cent) believe a new poll is inevitable.

Essential Media Communications

Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?

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Federal Politics – voting intention

Sep 6, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2,106 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 37% 39% 42% 41% 40%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 40% 42% 45% 44% 43%
Labor 43% 41% 38% 38% 39%
Greens 9% 10% 11% 11% 11%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 5% 4% 5% 6%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 46% 48% 50% 50% 49%
Labor 54% 52% 50% 50% 51%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

Minority Government

Sep 6, 2010

Q. After the election neither the Labor Party nor the Coalition has a majority in the House of Representatives – they need the support of independents to govern. Do you think this will result in a better or worse Government for Australia?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 30% 37% 19% 47%
Total worse 42% 33% 62% 30%
A lot better 8% 10% 3% 12%
A little better 22% 27% 16% 35%
A little worse 22% 19% 28% 23%
A lot worse 20% 14% 34% 7%
Make no difference 15% 16% 11% 10%
Don’t know 13% 14% 8% 13%

42% believe that a minority Government supported by the independents will result in a worse Government for Australia and 30% think it will be a better Government. Liberal/National voters are more likely to think it would be a worse Government (62%) while 47% of Greens voters think it would be a better Government. Labor voters are split – 37% better/33% worse.

Older voters are most likely to think it would be a worse Government – of those aged 55+, 47% say worse and 28% better. Comments »

New Election in next 12 months

Sep 6, 2010

Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?

Total likely 70%
Total unlikely 16%
Very likely 27%
Quite likely 43%
Not very likely 13%
Not at all likely 3%
Don’t know 14%

70% of respondents think it likely that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months and only 16% think it is unlikely.

A majority of all voters types believe it is likely. Comments »

Need for a New Election

Sep 6, 2010

Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 52% 48% 65% 45%
No 33% 38% 25% 35%
Don’t know 15% 14% 10% 20%

52% think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 33% disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (65%) although all voter types are more likely to support another election than oppose it.  Women (yes 53%/no 29%) are more likely to support another election than men (50%/38%). Comments »

New Election – Likely Winner

Sep 6, 2010

Q. And if Australia had another Federal election in the next 12 months, which party do you expect would win that election?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Labor 35% 76% 2% 48%
Liberal/National 39% 4% 83% 11%
Don’t know 25% 20% 15% 41%

Expectations about which party would win another election are divided – and closely follow party preferences. 39% think the Coalition would win and 35% think Labor would win. Comments »

New Election – Change in Vote

Sep 6, 2010

Q. If another election was held in the next 12 months would you vote for the same party or might you change your vote?

  Total Voted Labor Voted Lib/Nat Voted Greens
Vote for the same party 72% 76% 84% 62%
Might change my vote 16% 16% 11% 28%
Definitely change my vote 1% 1% 2% 1%
Don’t know 11% 7% 4% 8%

72% say they would vote for the same party if another election was held and 17% think they may change their vote. Liberal/National voters are least likely to change their vote (13%), while Greens voters are most likely (29%). 22% of voters aged under 35 said they may change their vote compared to only 13% of those aged 55+. Comments »

The Punch: This election was not the ranga revolution predicted

Aug 31, 2010

First Published on The Punch 31/08/2010

When the political history of 2010 is written, every element of the closest election in a generation will be rightly scrutinized. The winning side will get home by a hair’s breadth ­ but could it be hair that determines the result?
Because there is a minority group whose natural connection with their chief advocate did not translate into votes on August 22 ­ Australia’s rangas turned on Julia Gillard at the moment she needed their support most.

Exclusive hair-based research from the Punch shows that redheads turned their locks away from Gillard, being the least likely hair coloured group to support the ALP.

Essential Media Communications

Source: Essential Media Communications

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