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  • May, 2012

    TRENDS: Budget 2012 – what would Walter White do?


    Wayne Swan delivered last week’s Budget from intensive care. Labor’s vital statistics are waning badly. The prognosis looks terminal.

    With limited time ahead of him, it’s time for Swan to confront this burning question: what would Walter White do?

    Swan might do well to follow the lead of Walter White, the cancer ridden science teacher in US TV series Breaking Bad who uses his limited time to look after his family’s financial future – by becoming a five-star methamphetamine cook.

    The latest Essential Report suggests Swan would do well to cook up some winning policies.

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  • May, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,904 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    16/4/12

    2 weeks ago

    30/4/12

    Last week

    7/5/12

    This week

    14/5/12

    Liberal

    45%

    46%

    47%

    47%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    50%

    50%

    50%

    Labor

    38.0%

    31%

    31%

    29%

    30%

    Greens

    11.8%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    56%

    57%

    58%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    44%

    43%

    42%

    43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

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  • May, 2012

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec 2010

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    16 Apr

    14 May

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    37%

    36%

    32%

    32%

    31%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    52%

    53%

    61%

    58%

    60%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    7%

    5%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    31%

    30%

    24%

    25%

    26%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    27%

    26%

    29%

    31%

    26%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    25%

    27%

    32%

    27%

    34%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    12%

    11%

    7%

    10%

    10%

    Julia Gillard’s approval rating has changed little since last month. 31% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 60% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -26 to -29 over the last 4 weeks.

    69% of Labor voters approve (up 2%) and 24% disapprove (up 3%).

    By gender – men 31% approve/61% disapprove, women 30% approve/58% disapprove.

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  • May, 2012

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

    2010

    20 Dec 2010

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    16 Apr

    14 May

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    35%

    35%

    36%

    38%

    36%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    51%

    53%

    52%

    50%

    53%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    7%

    7%

    7%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    28%

    29%

    29%

    31%

    29%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    25%

    23%

    23%

    23%

    24%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    26%

    30%

    29%

    27%

    29%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    12%

    13%

    11%

    Tony Abbott’s approval rating has declined a little over the last month. 36% (down 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 3%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -12 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

    71% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 19% (up 2%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 33% approve/53% disapprove.

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  • May, 2012

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 Mar 2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    16 Apr

    14 May

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    39%

    41%

    40%

    38%

    38%

    83%

    4%

    69%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    36%

    34%

    37%

    36%

    37%

    3%

    79%

    5%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    24%

    15%

    17%

    27%

    38% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +2% to +1% for Julia Gillard.

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 39%/37% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/36%.

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  • May, 2012

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    Interest in Federal Budget

    Q. Thinking about the Federal Budget – how much attention did you pay to this week’s Federal Budget?

     

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Total a lot/some

    66%

    53%

    52%

    54%

    Total a little/none

    31%

    44%

    45%

    43%

    A lot

    29%

    18%

    19%

    20%

    Some

    37%

    35%

    33%

    34%

    A little

    25%

    29%

    31%

    31%

    None

    6%

    15%

    14%

    12%

    Can’t say

    3%

    3%

    2%

    3%

    Just over half (54%) of respondents said they paid a lot or some attention to the Federal Budget. This is much the same as the corresponding figure of 52% for last year’s budget.

    Those most interested were Liberal/National voters (61%), Labor voters (59%) and people aged 55+ (64%). Only 42% of respondents aged 18-34 paid a lot or some attention to the budget.

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  • May, 2012

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    Impact of Budget

    Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for you personally?

    Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for average working people?

    Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for Australian businesses?

    Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for the Australian economy overall?

     

    You personally

    Working people

    Australian businesses

    Economy overall

     

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2012

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Total good

    22%

    11%

    17%

    31%

    27%

    20%

    10%

    36%

    27%

    26%

    Total bad

    26%

    29%

    26%

    24%

    32%

    25%

    43%

    28%

    29%

    32%

    Very good

    3%

    2%

    2%

    4%

    3%

    3%

    1%

    6%

    4%

    4%

    Good

    19%

    9%

    15%

    27%

    24%

    17%

    9%

    30%

    23%

    22%

    Neither good nor bad

    33%

    44%

    44%

    33%

    9%

    31%

    29%

    10%

    25%

    25%

    Bad

    18%

    21%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    19%

    28%

    18%

    21%

    21%

    Very bad

    8%

    8%

    9%

    5%

    10%

    6%

    15%

    10%

    8%

    11%

    Don’t know

    20%

    16%

    12%

    12%

    31%

    23%

    18%

    26%

    20%

    17%

    In terms of the economy overall there was a similar response to the 2012 budget compared to last year’s. 26% (down 1%) thought the economy was good for the economy and 32% (up 3%) thought it was bad.

    44% of respondents thought the Federal budget was neither good nor bad for them personally – 17% (up 6%) said it was good and 26% (down 3%) bad. 28% of respondents aged 35-44 thought it was good for them while 38% of those aged 55+ thought it was bad.

    31% thought it was good for working people and 24% thought it was bad. 35% of part-time workers thought it was good for working people.

    43% (up 18%) thought the budget was bad for business, 10% (down 10%) good and 29% said it was neither.

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  • May, 2012

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    Approval of Budget Items

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following parts of the Federal budget?

     

    Total approve

    Total disapprove

    Strongly approve

    Approve

    Disapprove

    Strongly disapprove

    Don’t know

    Reduced spending on defence

    48%

    43%

    14%

    34%

    28%

    15%

    10%

    Increased spending on dental health

    87%

    8%

    30%

    57%

    7%

    1%

    6%

    Bonus payments to low-income families with children at school

    60%

    33%

    16%

    44%

    20%

    13%

    7%

    Returning the budget to surplus

    61%

    26%

    15%

    46%

    19%

    7%

    14%

    Tightening eligibility for parenting payments for single mothers

    65%

    25%

    26%

    39%

    17%

    8%

    10%

    Increasing tax on super contributions for people on high incomes

    60%

    31%

    28%

    32%

    20%

    11%

    9%

    Respondents were divided on reduced defence spending – 48% approved and 43% disapproved. Support for reduced defence spending was highest among those aged 18-34 (57%).

    On all other items measured there was quite strong approval – in particular on increased spending on dental health (87%). Other items received at least 60% support – including 61% approval of returning the budget to surplus. 71% of Labor voters and 58% of Liberal/National voters approved the return to surplus.

    Increasing tax on super contributions for people on high incomes was approved by 52% of those on incomes of $1,600+ pw and disapproved by 40%.

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