Federal politics – voting intention

May 31, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

1,866 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week 
Liberal 31% 36% 41% 39% 39%
National 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 39% 43% 41% 41%
Labor 47% 40% 38% 40% 39%
Greens 8% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Family First 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week 
Total Lib/Nat 42% 47% 50% 48% 49%
Labor 58% 53% 50% 52% 51%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »

Approval of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd

May 31, 2010

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

  30 Mar 09 29 Jun 09 28 Sept 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10
Strongly approve 21% 14% 15% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 8% 7%
Approve 50% 48% 51% 47% 47% 44% 41% 41% 38% 34%
Disapprove 14% 18% 17% 20% 20% 19% 20% 22% 25% 25%
Strongly disapprove 7% 9% 6% 15% 12% 14% 17% 14% 17% 22%
Don’t know 9% 11% 11% 10% 10% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12%
Total approve 71% 62% 66% 56% 57% 55% 52% 53% 46% 41%
Total disapprove 21% 29% 23% 35% 32% 33% 37% 36% 42% 47%

 Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating has fallen to a net negative for the first time since he became Prime Minister. 41% approve (down 5%) of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 47% disapprove (up 5%).

 89% of Labor voters approve and 87% of Liberal/National voters disapprove. Greens voters are split 48% approve/45% disapprove.

 Younger people are more likely to approve of Kevin Rudd’s performance than older people. Those aged under 35 were net positive (45% approve/33% disapprove) and those aged 55+ strongly negative (31% approve/64% disapprove). Comments »

Approval of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott

May 31, 2010

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
  30 Mar 09 29 Jun 09 28 Sept 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10
Strongly approve 3% 4% 3% 2% 7% 5% 12% 8% 5% 5%
Approve 25% 20% 24% 23% 27% 32% 33% 25% 34% 30%
Disapprove 31% 31% 35% 33% 18% 20% 20% 28% 24% 28%
Strongly disapprove 17% 26% 18% 22% 18% 17% 16% 22% 19% 22%
Don’t know 24% 19% 21% 19% 31% 26% 18% 16% 18% 16%
Total approve 28% 24% 27% 25% 34% 37% 45% 33% 39% 35%
Total disapprove 48% 57% 53% 55% 36% 37% 36% 50% 43% 50%

 Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen back close to the level of the March poll – which was his lowest recorded. 35% approve (down 4%) of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% disapprove (up 7%).

72% of Liberal/National voters approve and 17% disapprove. 77% of Labor voters disapprove and 15% approve.

 The only group showing net approval was people aged 65+ (52% approve/42% disapprove).

Likelihood of Liberal’s Re-introducing WorkChoices

May 31, 2010

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

Total likely 58%
Total unlikely 21%
Very likely 28%
Quite likely 30%
Not very likely 18%
Not at all likely 3%
Don’t know 20%

 58% believe it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election – 21% think it is unlikely.

 83% of Labor voters and 42% of Liberal/National voters think it is likely – 44% of Liberal/National voters think it is unlikely.

64% of workers think it is likely and 17% unlikely. Comments »

Concern about Liberals Re-introducing WorkChoices

May 31, 2010

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?    

Very concerned 28%
Quite concerned 17%
A little concerned 20%
Not concerned 24%
Don’t know 11%

Overall, 45% were very or quite concerned about the reintroduction of WorkChoices or similar laws and 44% either a little or not concerned.  77% of Labor voters were concerned compared to 20% of Liberal/National voters. 50% of full-time workers were very/quite concerned and 39% a little or not concerned.
Q. The Opposition Leader Tony Abbot has indicated he would remove the unfair dismissal laws and he would re-institute AWA Individual contracts. How concerned are you about this?

  Very concerned Quite concerned A little concerned Not concerned Don’t know
Removal of unfair dismissal rights 36% 17% 20% 16% 11%
Re-institution of AWA individual contracts 27% 17% 19% 23% 14%

53% were very/quite concerned about the removal of unfair dismissal rights and 44% very/quite concerned about re-institution of individual contracts. 77% of Labor voters and 24% of Liberal/National voters were concerned about removal of unfair dismissal rights. 70% of Labor voters and 16% of Liberal/National voters were concerned about re-institution of individual contracts.  There were no substantial differences across demographic groups. Comments »

Tony Abbot Vs Union Position

May 31, 2010

Q. Tony Abbott says that by removing unfair dismissal laws and re-instituting AWA Individual contracts he is not bringing back Workchoices but making sure our IR system promotes workplace flexibility. The unions say that taking away unfair dismissal rights and re-instituting AWA Individual contracts IS bringing back two of the main pillars of WorkChoices and shows the Liberals are determined to make the laws favour companies at the expense of ordinary workers. Whose view is closest to your own?

Tony Abbott 24%
The unions 43%
Don’t know 33%

 24% agreed more with Tony Abbott’s position on removing unfair dismissal laws and re-instituting AWA Individual contracts and 43% agreed more with the unions’ position that the Liberals are determined to make the laws favour companies at the expense of ordinary workers.

69% of Labor voters support the unions’ position and 56% of Liberal/National voters support Tony Abbott’s position.

 51% of those aged 35-54 support the unions’ position and 21% support Tony Abbott’s position. Comments »

Impact on Vote of Re-introducing WorkChoices

May 31, 2010

Q. If it turned out the Coalition was planning to reintroduce some of the Howard Government’s IR laws, like ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them in the upcoming federal election?

Total more likely 14%
Total less likely 46%
Much more likely 6%
Somewhat more likely 8%
Somewhat less likely 14%
Much less likely 32%
Make no difference 25%
Don’t know 15%

 46% said that they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition if they were planning to reintroduce some of the Howard Government’s IR laws – 14% said they would be more likely.

 Among Labor voters, 69% said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 7% more likely and 16% make no difference.

Among Coalition voters, 20% said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 30% more likely and 42% make no difference.

51% of those aged 35-54 said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 11% more likely and 26% make no difference. Comments »

Media Coverage of Politicians’ Private Lives

May 31, 2010

Q. There have been some recent situations where a politician has resigned from their position or their party after some aspects of their sexual behaviour were made public by the media. Is it appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s private life?

Yes, in all circumstances 12%
Yes, in some circumstances 42%
No, not at all 38%
Don’t know 8%

A majority (54%) believe it is appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s personal life in some or all circumstances. 12% think details should be revealed in all circumstances and 42% in some circumstances. 38% say details of a political figure’s personal life should not be revealed at all. 64% of Liberal/National voters and 50% of Labor voters approved revealing details of political figure’s personal life in some or all circumstances.  Greens voters were split 50% some/all, 50% not at all. There were no substantial demographic differences. Comments »

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