Impact of Brexit on vote

Jul 1, 2016

Q. Does the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union make you more likely to vote Liberal or more likely to vote Labor in the Federal election – or does it make no difference to your vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
More likely to vote Liberal 15%   2% 35% 4% 6%
More likely to vote Labor 11%   25% 1% 21% 8%
Makes no difference 64%   66% 58% 70% 83%
Don’t know 9%   6% 6% 5% 3%

15% say the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union has made them more likely to vote Liberal and 11% say it has made them more likely to vote Labor. 64% say it makes no difference.

Federal voting intention

Jun 28, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

21/6/16

2 weeks ago

14/6/16

4 weeks ago

31/5/16

  Election  7 Sep 13
Liberal 37% 37% 37% 38%
National 3% 3% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 39%   40% 41% 41%   45.6%
Labor 37%   37% 37% 35%   33.4%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 9% 8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 4% 4% 4% 4%
Other/Independent 10% 9% 9% 10% 12.4%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 49% 49% 49% 51% 53.5%
Labor 51% 51% 51% 49% 46.5%

Sample = 1,773. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Second preference vote

Jun 28, 2016

Q. Which party would you give your next preference to – out of the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.

  Total   Vote Greens Vote other   Vote Greens (excluding don’t know) Vote other (excluding don’t know)   Vote Greens

2013 election

Vote other

2013 election

Liberal Party 19% 12% 33% 14% 52% 17% 55%
Labor Party 39% 73% 30% 86% 48% 83% 45%
Don’t know 22% 15% 37%

19% of minor parties and independent voters say they will preference the Liberals and 39% say they will preference Labor. 22% don’t know which party they will preference.

Excluding the “don’t knows”, Labor receives 86% of preferences of Greens voters and 48% of the preferences of other voters – a very similar result to the 2013 election.

 

 

Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Jun 28, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 40% 20% 78% 20% 25%
Total disapprove 40% 67% 10% 69% 53%
Strongly approve 7% 4% 15% 3% 1%
Approve 33% 16% 63% 17% 24%
Disapprove 22% 31% 8% 38% 33%
Strongly disapprove 18% 36% 2% 31% 20%
Don’t know 20% 14% 12% 11% 22%

 

  Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 17 May 2016 31 May 2016 14 Jun 2016
Total approve 47% 56% 51% 51% 45% 39% 40% 41% 38%
Total disapprove 17% 23% 25% 27% 35% 39% 42% 39% 40%
Strongly approve 11% 13% 9% 8% 6% 7% 7% 9% 6%
Approve 36% 43% 42% 43% 39% 32% 33% 32% 32%
Disapprove 11% 16% 16% 18% 24% 23% 26% 22% 24%
Strongly disapprove 6% 7% 9% 9% 11% 16% 16% 17% 16%
Don’t know 35% 21% 23% 21% 21% 22% 17% 19% 21%

40% (up 2% from 2 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 40% (no change)  disapprove – a net approval rating of 0 (up 2).

78% (up 6%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 10% (down 9%) disapproving. 20% (no change) of Labor voters and 20% (up 6%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 43% approve/39% disapprove and women 37% approve/41% disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Jun 28, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 37%   74% 18% 42% 20%
Total disapprove 39%   10% 67% 39% 57%
Strongly approve 8% 20% 2% 4% 4%
Approve 29% 54% 16% 38% 16%
Disapprove 23% 9% 34% 30% 35%
Strongly disapprove 16% 1% 33% 9% 22%
Don’t know 24% 16% 16% 20% 24%

 

  Nov 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 17 May 2016 31 May 2016 14 Jun 2016
Total approve 31% 35% 27% 27% 27% 27% 30% 34% 34% 34%
Total disapprove 27% 39% 47% 47% 48% 47% 44% 43% 44% 40%
Strongly approve 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 6% 7% 7%
Approve 26% 28% 23% 23% 22% 24% 25% 28% 27% 27%
Disapprove 17% 23% 26% 28% 26% 29% 22% 26% 26% 22%
Strongly disapprove 10% 16% 21% 19% 22% 18% 22% 17% 18% 18%
Don’t know 43% 26% 25% 26% 25% 26% 25% 23% 23% 25%

37% (up 3% in last 2 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 39% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -6 to -2.

74% (up 13%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 10% (down 7%) disapprove.

39% of men and 36% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 42% of men and 37% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Jun 28, 2016

 Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Malcolm Turnbull 40% 13% 81% 19% 39%
Bill Shorten 29% 66% 3% 49% 18%
Don’t know 30% 21% 16% 31% 46%

 

  Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 17 May 2016 31 May 2016 14 Jun 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 53% 54% 51% 52% 48% 44% 43% 40% 40%
Bill Shorten 17% 15% 18% 15% 19% 22% 28% 27% 29%
Don’t know 30% 31% 31% 33% 33% 34% 29% 33% 32%

40% (no change) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 29% (no change) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

43% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 30% prefer Bill Shorten.

38% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 29% prefer Bill Shorten.

Best campaign

Jun 28, 2016

Q. Which leader and party do you think has performed best during the Federal election campaign?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party 30% 6% 68% 4% 19%
Bill Shorten and the Labor Party 28% 64% 6% 26% 23%
Richard di Natale and the Greens. 8% 5% 2% 47% 10%
Don’t know 34% 25% 24% 24% 49%

30% think that Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party performed best during the election campaign and 28% think Bill Shorten and the Labor Party preformed best.

Opinions mainly reflected party preferences. 68% of Liberal/National voters thought Malcolm Turnbull performed best while 64% of Labor voters thought Bill Shorten performed best.

Greens and other voters tended to favour Bill Shorten over Malcolm Turnbull.

Privatising Medicare

Jun 28, 2016

Q. If the Liberal Party wins the Federal election, do you think it is likely or unlikely that they will attempt to rivatize Medicare?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total likely 50%   79% 23% 77% 54%
Total not likely 34%   13% 63% 18% 33%
Very likely 25% 47% 6% 38% 28%
Somewhat likely 25% 32% 17% 39% 26%
Not very likely 15% 9% 22% 13% 19%
Not at all likely 19% 4% 41% 5% 14%
Don’t know 17% 8% 13% 6% 13%

50% think it is likely that the Liberal Party will attempt to rivatize Medicare if they win the Federal election.

79% of Labor voters and 77% of Greens voters think it is likely compared to 23% of Liberal National voters.

Pages:«12345678...353»

Sign up for updates

Receive our weekly Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.