State voting intention – NSW

Jan 13, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Election Mar 2015

Oct-Dec 2015

October

November

December

Sample

3,205

1,170

1,162

873

First preference vote

Liberal/National

45.6%

48%

48%

48%

47%

Labor

34.1%

33%

34%

33%

33%

Greens

10.3%

10%

9%

9%

11%

Other/Independent

10.0%

10%

10%

10%

10%

2PP

Liberal/National

54.3%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

45.7%

44%

44%

44%

44%

State voting intention – Queensland

Jan 13, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Election Jan 2015

Oct-Dec 2015

October

November

December

Sample

1,873

688

672

513

First preference vote

LNP

41.3%

42%

42%

41%

45%

Labor

37.5%

39%

40%

39%

37%

Greens

8.4%

8%

8%

9%

7%

Palmer United Party

5.1%

Katter Party

1.9%

3%

3%

2%

4%

Other/Independent

5.8%

8%

8%

9%

8%

2PP

LNP

48.9%

50%

49%

49%

53%

Labor

State voting intention – Victoria

Jan 13, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Election Nov 2014

Oct-Dec 2015

October

November

December

Sample

2,402

882

870

650

First preference vote

Liberal/National

42.0%

40%

41%

39%

40%

Labor

38.1%

38%

36%

38%

41%

Greens

11.5%

13%

14%

12%

10%

Other/Independent

8.4%

9%

9%

10%

9%

2PP

Liberal/National

48.0%

47%

47%

46%

46%

Labor

52.0%

53%

53%

54%

54%

State voting intention – South Australia

Jan 13, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Election Mar 2014

Oct-Dec 2015

Sample

797

First preference vote

Liberal

44.8%

32%

Labor

35.8%

39%

Greens

8.7%

10%

Other/Independent

10.7%

19%

2PP

Liberal

53.0%

46%

Labor

47.0%

54%

State voting intention – Western Australia

Jan 13, 2016

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Election Mar 2013

Oct-Dec 2015

Sample

946

First preference vote

Liberal

47.1%

37%

National

6.1%

6%

Labor

33.1%

35%

Greens

8.4%

12%

Other/Independent

5.3%

10%

2PP

Liberal/National

57.3%

51%

Labor

42.7%

49%

Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 15, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,764 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election 7 Sep 13

4 weeks ago 17/11/15

2 weeks ago 1/12/15

Last week 8/12/15

This week 15/12/15

Liberal

41%

41%

41%

42%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

45%

44%

44%

45%

Labor

33.4%

36%

35%

36%

35%

Greens

8.6%

10%

11%

11%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

2 Party Preferred

Election 7 Sep 13

4 weeks ago 17/11/15

2 weeks ago 1/12/15

Last week 8/12/15

This week 15/12/15

Liberal National

53.5%

52%

51%

51%

52%

Labor

46.5%

48%

49%

49%

48%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Performance of politicians

Dec 15, 2015

Q. How would you rate the performance of the following politicians?

Total good

Total poor

Net

Very good

Good

Neither good nor poor

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know

Malcolm Turnbull – Prime Minister

50%

17%

+33

15%

35%

29%

9%

8%

5%

Bill Shorten – Opposition leader

14%

44%

-30

2%

12%

36%

20%

24%

6%

Scott Morrison – Treasurer

22%

25%

-3

4%

18%

40%

14%

11%

13%

Clive Palmer – leader of PUP

8%

60%

-52

1%

7%

22%

21%

39%

10%

Richard Di Natale – leader of the Greens

16%

28%

-12

3%

13%

36%

12%

16%

19%

Julie Bishop – Foreign Minister

43%

21%

+22

14%

29%

28%

10%

11%

7%

Two politicians were given net positive ratings for their performance. 50% rated Malcolm Turnbull’s performance as good and 17% rated him poor. Julie Bishop achieved ratings of 43% good and 21% poor.

Net ratings for the others were Bill Shorten -30, Scott Morrison -3, Clive Palmer -52 and Richard Di Natale -12.

Malcolm Turnbull had a net rating of +72 with Liberal National voters and +11 with Labor voters. Bill Shorten had a net rating of +7 with Labor voters and -53 with Liberal National voters. Richard Di Natale had a net rating of +43 with Greens voters.

Last 12 months

Dec 15, 2015

Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

Total good

Total poor

Net score

Very good

Good

Neither good nor poor

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know

Net score Dec 2013

Net score Dec 2014

The Australian economy

23%

34%

-11

3%

20%

39%

28%

6%

5%

-13

-13

Australian politics in general

14%

55%

-41

1%

13%

27%

35%

20%

5%

-62

-53

Large companies and corporations

28%

23%

+5

4%

24%

39%

19%

4%

9%

-9

+14

Small business

21%

33%

-12

2%

19%

37%

26%

7%

9%

-45

-28

Trade unions

11%

38%

-27

2%

9%

35%

25%

13%

15%

-25

-18

The average Australian

21%

35%

-14

2%

19%

40%

27%

8%

5%

-22

-23

Your personal financial situation

24%

30%

-6

3%

21%

42%

19%

11%

3%

-8

-11

Your workplace (employees only)

37%

23%

+14

5%

32%

37%

17%

6%

2%

+8

-5

You and your family overall

40%

19%

+21

5%

35%

38%

14%

5%

2%

+18

+3

Respondents believed that this year has been a poor for all groups except large companies (+5), your workplace (+14) and you and your family overall (+21). It was considered a particularly bad year for Australian politics in general (-41) and trade unions (-27).

Relative to 2014 (as measured in December last year), this year was considered better for politics in general (up 12), small businesses (up 16), your workplace (up 19) and you and your family overall (up 18) but worse for large companies and corporations (down 9) and trade unions (down 9).

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