Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 4, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 Sample size = 1,866 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

7/7/15

2 weeks ago 21/7/15 Last week

28/7/15

This week 4/8/15
Liberal   38% 38% 36% 36%
National 3% 3% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 45.6% 41% 41% 40% 39%
Labor 33.4% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Greens 8.6% 10% 11% 11% 12%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

 

2 Party Preferred Election

7 Sep 13

  4 weeks ago

7/7/15

2 weeks ago 21/7/15 Last week

28/7/15

This week 4/8/15
Liberal National 53.5% 48% 48% 47% 47%
Labor 46.5% 52% 52% 53% 53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Best leader of the Liberal Party

Aug 4, 2015

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

  Total   Male Female   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jun 2014 Feb 2015
Tony Abbott 18% 21% 15% 4% 41% 3% 9% 18% 11%
Malcolm Turnbull 24% 30% 18% 32% 21% 34% 20% 31% 24%
Joe Hockey 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 6% 5%
Julie Bishop 17% 11% 22% 17% 17% 21% 20% 4% 21%
Christopher Pyne 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Scott Morrison 3% 5% 1% 2% 6% 3% 1% 2%
Someone else 13% 13% 13% 17% 3% 20% 28% 19% 13%
Don’t know 22% 16% 27% 24% 6% 187% 17% 21% 24%

 

24% (no change since February) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% prefer Tony Abbott (up 7%) and 17% prefer Julie Bishop (down 4%).

Among Liberal/National voters, 41% (up 18%) prefer Tony Abbott, 21% (down 3%) Malcolm Turnbull and 17% (down 9%) Julie Bishop.

Preferences of men were Malcolm Turnbull 30%, Tony Abbott 21% and Julie Bishop 11%.

Preferences of women were Julie Bishop 22%, Malcolm Turnbull 18% and Tony Abbott 15%.

 

Leader of the Labor Party

Aug 4, 2015

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

  Total   Men Women   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Bill Shorten 16% 20% 13% 34% 10% 4% 6%
Anthony Albanese 12% 13% 11% 13% 11% 18% 16%
Tanya Plibersek 13% 12% 14% 15% 10% 29% 7%
Chris Bowen 5% 7% 3% 3% 7% 7% 5%%
Someone else 18% 20% 17% 10% 26% 15% 35%
Don’t know 36% 29% 42% 25% 35% 27% 31%

16% think Bill Shorten would make the best leader of the Labor Party, 13% prefer Tanya Plibersek and 12% Anthony Albanese. 18% prefer someone else and 36% don’t know.

Among Labor voters, 34% prefer Bill Shorten, 15% Tanya Plibersek and 13% Anthony Albanese

Preferences of men were Bill Shorten 20%, Anthony Albanese 13% and Tanya Plibersek 12%.

Preferences of women were Tanya Plibersek 14%, Bill Shorten 13% and Anthony Albanese 11%.

Biggest threats to the world

Aug 4, 2015

Q. Which of the following international issues represents the biggest threat to the world? And which is the second biggest threat? 

  Total Biggest threat Second biggest threat   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Terrorism 61% 43% 18% 61% 71% 35% 57%
Global economic instability 51% 23% 28% 50% 52% 50% 54%
Climate change 38% 21% 17% 47% 21% 68% 36%
Fighting in the Middle East 23% 6% 17% 17% 27% 21% 29%
Chinese economic slowdown 12% 4% 8% 12% 13% 4% 12%
Tensions between Russia and its neighbours 8% 2% 6% 6% 10% 8% 9%
Tensions between China and its neighbours 7% 1% 6% 6% 6% 14% 3%

61% think that terrorism is one of the two biggest threats to the world and 51% nominated global economic instability as one of the biggest threats.

38% think climate change is one of the two biggest threats.

Labor and Liberal/National voters nominated terrorism and global economic instability as the biggest threats while Greens voters were more likely to think climate change was a bigger threat (68%). Only 21% of Liberal/National voters think climate change is one of the two biggest threats.

Biggest threats to Australia

Aug 4, 2015

Q. Which of the following international issues represents the biggest threat to Australia? And which is the second biggest threat? 

  Total Biggest threat Second biggest threat   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Global economic instability 55% 25% 30% 51% 58% 59% 55%
Terrorism 47% 26% 21% 48% 54% 21% 46%
Climate change 38% 22% 16% 47% 18% 72% 31%
Chinese economic slowdown 36% 20% 16% 31% 44% 27% 36%
Fighting in the Middle East 12% 3% 9% 10% 13% 9% 15%
Tensions between China and its neighbours 9% 4% 5% 11% 8% 8% 13%
Tensions between Russia and its neighbours 3% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% 5%

55% think that global economic instability is one of the two biggest threats to Australia and 47% nominated terrorism as one of the biggest threats.

38% think climate change is one of the two biggest threats and 36% nominated the Chinese economic slowdown.

Labor voters think global economic instability, terrorism and climate change represent similar levels of threat while Liberal/National voters were more likely to think the Chinese economic slowdown was a threat. Only 18% of Liberal/National voters thought climate change was one of the two biggest threats to Australia.

Importance of Asylum Seeker issue

Aug 4, 2015

Q. How important is the asylum seeker issue of in deciding which party you will vote for in the Federal election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jun 2013
The most important issue 7% 7% 8% 6% 9% 6%
One of the most important issues 29% 23% 35% 38% 28% 28%
Quite important but not as important as other issues 37% 44% 36% 33% 33% 37%
Not very important 10% 11% 11% 13% 9% 14%
Not at all important 9% 9% 7% 6% 17% 10%
Don’t know 8% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5%

36% of respondents think the asylum seeker issue is the most important or one of the most important election issues.

43% of Liberal/National voters think it is one of or the most important issues.

These results are very similar to those from June 2013.

Party with Best Policy on Handling Asylum Seeker issue

Aug 4, 2015

Q. Which party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jun 2013
Labor 12% 32% 2% 4% 1% 13%
Liberal 37% 11% 78% 4% 32% 38%
Greens 8% 7% 3% 55% 6% 7%
None of them 24% 29% 11% 27% 41% 31%
Don’t know 19% 21% 6% 9% 19% 11%

37% think the Liberal Party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat and 12% think the Labor Party has the best policy. 24% think no party has the best policy. These results are very similar to those from June 2013.

Only 32% of Labor voters think the Labor Party has the best policy compared with 78% of Liberal/National voters who think the Liberals have the best policy.

Of those who think the asylum seeker issue is one of or the most important election issue, 46% think that the Liberals have the best policy, 15% think Labor has the best policy, 12% think the Greens have the best policy and 14% think none of them do.

50% renewable energy target

Aug 4, 2015

Q. The Labor Party recently committed to a target of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Do you approve or disapprove of this policy?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other
Total approve 65% 84% 45% 96% 59%
Total disapprove 16% 3% 35% 2% 15%
Strongly approve 25% 40% 8% 43% 20%
Approve 40% 44% 37% 53% 39%
Disapprove 9% 3% 18% 1% 8%
Strongly disapprove 7% * 17% 1% 7%
Don’t know 19% 13% 20% 3% 25%

65% approve of the Labor Party commitment to a target of 50% renewable energy by 2030 and 16% disapprove.

A very high majority of Labor voters (84%) and Greens voters (96%) approve.

Liberal/National voters were split but more likely to approve (45%) than disapprove (35%).

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