Approval of Malcolm Turnbull

Jul 12, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2015 Mar 2016 14 Jun 2016 28 Jun 2016
Total approve 37%   13% 75% 19% 18%   56% 45% 38% 40%
Total disapprove 48%   79% 14% 58% 69%   23% 35% 40% 40%
Strongly approve 8% 3% 19% 2% 13% 6% 6% 7%
Approve 29% 10% 56% 17% 18% 43% 39% 32% 33%
Disapprove 27% 41% 10% 29% 41% 16% 24% 24% 22%
Strongly disapprove 21% 38% 4% 29% 28% 7% 11% 16% 18%
Don’t know 16% 8% 11% 23% 13% 21% 21% 21% 20%

37% (down 3% from 2 weeks ago) of respondents approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net approval rating from 0 to -11.

75% (down 3%) of Liberal/National voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance with 14% (up 4%) disapproving. 13% (down 7%) of Labor voters and 19% (down 1%) of Greens voters approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s performance.

By gender, men were 40% approve/48% disapprove and women 33% approve/46% disapprove.

Decision on same sex marriage

Jul 12, 2016

Q. Do you think the issue of same sex marriage should be decided by Parliament or should there be a national vote?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Mar 2016
Should be decided by Parliament 25% 32% 20% 43% 19% 22% 21% 23%
Should have a national vote 60% 55% 67% 47% 67% 66% 67% 66%
Don’t know 15% 12% 13% 11% 14% 12% 12% 11%

60% favour a national vote on same sex marriage and 25% think the issue should be decided by Parliament.

This represents a shift away from support for a national vote since this question was asked in March.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Jul 12, 2016

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 14 Jun 2016 28 Jun 2016
Total approve 39%   78% 18% 40% 23%   31% 35% 27% 27% 34% 37%
Total disapprove 41%   10% 67% 36% 66%   27% 39% 47% 47% 40% 39%
Strongly approve 11% 27% 2% 9% 1% 5% 7% 4% 3% 7% 8%
Approve 28% 51% 16% 31% 22% 26% 28% 23% 24% 27% 29%
Disapprove 21% 9% 26% 28% 38% 17% 23% 26% 29% 22% 23%
Strongly disapprove 20% 1% 41% 8% 28% 10% 16% 21% 18% 18% 16%
Don’t know 20% 13% 16% 23% 11% 43% 26% 25% 26% 25% 24%

39% (up 2% in last 2 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 41% (up 2%) disapprove – no change in his net rating of -2.

78% (up 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 10% (no change) disapprove.

43% of men and 35% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 41% of men and 41% of women disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Jul 12, 2016

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 14 Jun 2016 28 Jun 2016
Malcolm Turnbull 39% 6% 80% 21% 35% 53% 54% 48% 40% 40%
Bill Shorten 31% 73% 3% 44% 17% 17% 15% 19% 29% 29%
Don’t know 30%  22% 16% 35% 49% 30% 31% 33% 32% 30%

39% (down 1% in last 2 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 31% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.

42% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 34% prefer Bill Shorten.

35% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 29% prefer Bill Shorten.

 

Preferred Government

Jul 12, 2016

Q. If neither the Liberal National coalition nor the Labor Party wins a majority in the election, which of the following would you prefer to form Government?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Liberal National coalition with minor parties and independents 33% 4% 70% 13% 31%
Labor with minor parties and independents 36% 76% 4% 62% 26%
Neither – hold a new election 21%   16% 20% 19% 35%
Don’t know 11% 4% 6% 6% 8%

If neither the Liberal National coalition nor the Labor Party wins a majority in the election, 36% would prefer Labor to form a Government with the minor parties and independents and 33% would prefer the Coalition to form a Government with the minor parties and independents.

21% favour a new election.

62% of Greens voters prefer a Labor-led Government while 35% of other voters think there should be a new election.

Likelihood of new election

Jul 12, 2016

Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total likely 51%   60% 50% 46% 53%
Total not likely 28%   21% 36% 28% 29%
Very likely 17% 20% 17% 12% 19%
Quite likely 34% 40% 33% 34% 34%
Not very likely 20% 17% 26% 23% 16%
Not at all likely 8% 4% 10% 5% 13%
Don’t know 21% 19% 14% 26% 18%

 51% think that it is likely Australia will have another Federal election within the next 12 months and 28% think it is not likely.

60% of Labor voters and 50% of Liberal/National voters think it is likely.

Same sex marriage

Jul 12, 2016

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov 2010 Jul 2011 Sep 2012 Oct 2013 Jun 2014 Oct 2015 Mar 2016
Should be allowed to marry 58% 67% 50% 91% 46% 53% 54% 55% 57% 60% 59% 64%
Should not be allowed to marry 28% 22% 37% 7% 47% 36% 35% 36% 31% 28% 30% 26%
Don’t know 14% 11% 14% 2% 7% 11% 11% 9% 12% 12% 11% 10%

58% agreed that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 28% think they should not. This is a 6% drop in support since March but similar to average level of support over the last 3 years.

Support for same sex marriage is 54% among men and 62% among women. 67% of under 35’s support same sex marriage – while those aged 65+ split 40% in favour/49% against.

 

Federal voting intention

Jul 5, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

28/6/16

2 weeks ago

21/6/16

4 weeks ago

7/6/16

  Election  7 Sep 13
Liberal 38% 37% 37% 37%
National 3% 3% 3% 4%
Total Liberal/National 41%   39% 40% 41%   45.6%
Labor 37%   37% 37% 36%   33.4%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 10% 8.6%
Nick Xenophon Team 2% 4% 4% 4%
Other/Independent 10% 10% 9% 10% 12.4%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 50% 49% 49% 50% 53.5%
Labor 50% 51% 51% 50% 46.5%

Sample = 1,723. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

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