Federal voting intention

Oct 25, 2016

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week

11/10/16

2 weeks ago

4/10/16

4 weeks ago

20/9/16

  Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 36%   34% 34% 36%    
National 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 38%   37% 38% 39%   42.0%
Labor 37%   37% 36% 36%   34.7%
Greens 10%   11% 10% 9%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6%   5% 6% 6%    
Other/Independent 6%   6% 7% 7%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   47% 48% 48%   50.4%
Labor 52%   53% 52% 52%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1783 The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Concern about the risk of terrorism in Australia

Oct 25, 2016

Q. How concerned are you about the risk of a terrorism attack on Australian soil?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
TOTAL Concern 72%   74% 80% 42% 76%
Very concerned 24%   23% 28% 2% 33%
Somewhat concerned 48%   51% 52% 40% 43%
Not very concerned 19%   20% 15% 39% 17%
Not at all concerned 6%   5% 4% 19% 7%
Don’t know 3%   1% 1% 0% 1%

 

Almost three quarters of Australians (72%) are concerned about the risk of a terrorism attack on Australian soil. 24% of those are ‘very’ concerned.

Greens voters (42%) are less likely than Labor (74%), Lib/Nat (80%) or Other voters (76%) to be concerned.

Older Australians were more likely to be concerned; 81% of those aged 55+ compared to 71% of those aged 35-54 and 63% of those aged 34 and under were concerned.

There were no significant differences between males and females.

Increasing risk of terrorism

Oct 25, 2016

Q. Over the last few years, do you think that the threat of terrorism happening in Australia has increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Nov

2015

Oct

2015

Mar 2015 Sept 2014
TOTAL Increased 73%   73% 82% 57% 73%   76% 75% 75% 57%
TOTAL Decreased 2%   2% 2% 5% 2%   2% 1% 2% 6%
Increased a lot 34%   35% 39% 9% 41%   42% 38% 39% 22%
Increased a little 38%   38% 43% 48% 32%   34% 37% 36% 35%
Stayed about the same 23%   25% 15% 38% 25%   19% 20% 20% 33%
Decreased a little 1%   1% 1% 4% 1%   1% 1% 1% 3%
Decreased a lot 1%   1% 1% 1% 1%   1% <1% 1% 3%
Don’t know 3%   1% 2% 1%   3% 3% 4% 4%

 

Almost three-quarters (73%) of Australians think that the threat of terrorism happening in Australia has increased over the last few years. This figure is consistent with results from March 2015, October 2015 and November 2016. It is substantially higher than September 2014 (prior to the Lindt Café siege).

Again, Greens voters (57%) were less likely that Labor (73%), Lib/Nat (82%) or Other voters (73%) to think that the threat had increased.

Again, older Australians were more likely to think that the threat had increased; 80% of those aged 55+ thought it had increased compared to 72% of those aged 35-54 and 66% of those aged 34 and under.

There were no significant differences based on gender.

Support for anti-terrorism measures

Oct 25, 2016

Q. Would you support or oppose the following measures?

  TOTAL Support TOTAL Oppose Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
Preventing Australian citizens suspected of fighting in Syria from leaving the country 64% 19% 33% 31% 10% 9% 18%
Preventing dual nationals who are suspected of fighting in Syria from returning to Australia 81% 8% 54% 27% 6% 2% 12%
Allowing the government to monitor phone calls and data of all citizens 44% 43% 20% 24% 22% 21% 14%
Supporting on the ground intervention by western military, including Australia, in Syria 49% 29% 16% 33% 19% 10% 23%
Investing in local programs to help de-radicalise youth 79% 9% 34% 45% 6% 3% 13%

 

The most strong support for anti-terrorism measures was to ‘prevent dual nationals who are suspected of fighting in Syria from returning to Australia’ (81%). This was followed by ‘investing in local programs to help de-radicalise youth’ (79%).

A strong majority (64%) also supported ‘preventing Australian citizens suspected of fighting in Syria from leaving the country’.

Less popular (and supported by under half of Australians) were ‘supporting on the ground intervention by western military, including Australia, in Syria’ (49%) and ‘allowing the government to monitor phone calls and data of all citizens’ (44%).

Comments on ‘Allowing the government to monitor phone calls and data of all citizens’

Support for this measure increases with age; while just 31% of those aged 34 and under support allowing the government to monitor phone calls and data of all citizens, support increases to 44% for those aged 35-54 and 555 for those aged 55+.

Lib/Nat voters (57%) were far more likely to support this measure. Greens voters (15%) were far less likely, and Labor voters (41%) did not differ significantly from the average.

Biggest threat to international peace and security

Oct 25, 2016

Q. What of these is the biggest threat to international peace and stability?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Global warming 6%   8% 4% 20% 2%
ISIS and Islamic radicalisation 42%   41% 53% 16% 46%
Russian aggression 5%   3% 7% 3% 3%
Growing level of inequality 11%   13% 8% 15% 14%
Over-population 9%   8% 10% 8% 14%
A Trump presidency 21%   22% 16% 35% 17%
None of these 6%   4% 2% 3% 4%

 

Almost half (42%) of Australians consider ‘ISIS and Islamic radicalisation’ to be the biggest threat to international peace and stability (from the list offered).

This was followed by ‘A Trump presidency’, which more than one in five (21%) of Australians consider to be the biggest threat to international peace and stability.

Lib/Nat voters (53%) were more likely than the other voter group to select ‘ISIS and Islamic radicalisation’, while Greens voters were more likely to select ‘A Trump presidency’ (at 35% this was seen by Green voters to be the biggest threat from the list offered). One in five (20%) of Greens voters selected ‘global warming’, far more than any other voting group.

Support for Julian Assange

Oct 25, 2016

Q. Julian Assange faces extradition from the UK to Sweden for an investigation into sexual assault allegations. In Sweden he will be detained while the investigation continues, and he may be extradited to the United States to face charges relating to WikiLeaks’s release of US diplomatic cables.

Do you think the Australian government has provided appropriate support to Assange given he faces investigation for sexual assault in Sweden and possible extradition to the US?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   July 2012
Government have provided appropriate support 28%   28% 36% 24% 24%   22%
Government have not provided appropriate support 26%   33% 19% 30% 36%   36%
Don’t know 46%   39% 45% 46% 40%   41%

 

When asked whether they thought the Australian government has provided appropriate support to Julian Assange, the largest proportion (46%) of Australians selected ‘don’t know’.

28% said they had provided appropriate support, and almost the same amount said they had not provided appropriate support (26%).

These results are in line with those from July 2012, the last time this question was asked.

Lib/Nat voters were slightly more likely to believe that the Government had provided appropriate support (36%).

Support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission

Oct 25, 2016

Q. The Government plans to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) to address claims of union militancy in the construction industry. The ABCC’s powers included preventing any person from revealing they had been forced to give testimony to the Commission, and overriding a person’s right to silence. Do you support or oppose re-establishing the ABCC?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug 2016 Apr 2016 Mar 2016 Oct 2013
TOTAL Support 36%   26% 57% 22% 35%   32% 35% 35% 29%
TOTAL Oppose 16%   23% 5% 33% 17%   18% 16% 17% 22%
Strongly support 16%   9% 31% 4% 18%   13% 17% 17% 12%
Support 20%   17% 26% 18% 17%   19% 18% 18% 17%
Neither support nor oppose 24%   27% 21% 28% 24%   28% 23% 27% 23%
Oppose 8%   9% 5% 16% 8%   9% 8% 8% 9%
Strongly oppose 8%   14% 17% 9%   9% 8% 9% 13%
Don’t know 24%   24% 18% 17% 23%   23% 27% 22% 25%

 

Just over one in three Australians (36%) support the re-establishing of the ABCC, whilst 16% oppose it. The remaining 48% either ‘neither support or oppose’ (24%) or ‘don’t know’ (24%).

These results are in line with those gathered previously.

Lib/Nat voters (57%) are significantly more likely to support the re-establishing of the ABCC, while Greens (33%) and Labor (23%) voters were more likely to oppose it.

Males (40%) were slightly more likely than females (32%) to support the re-establishing of the ABCC – however females were far more likely to select ‘don’t know’ (32% of females compared to 17% of males).

Importance of re-establishing the ABCC

Oct 25, 2016

Q. Compared to other issues the Government needs to address, how important is the issue of re-establishing the ABCC?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Aug 2016 Apr 2016
TOTAL Important 39%   29% 57% 29% 38%   35% 34%
TOTAL not important 38%   47% 25% 55% 43%   40% 41%
Very important 12%   9% 19% 5% 12%   9% 10%
Somewhat important 27%   20% 38% 24% 26%   26% 24%
Not so important 25%   26% 22% 28% 27%   25% 26%
Not at all important 13%   21% 3% 27% 16%   15% 15%
Don’t know 24%   24% 18% 16% 19%   26% 26%

 

39% of Australians consider the re-establishing of the ABCC to be important compared to the other issues the Government needs to address. 38% consider it to be not important.

These results are not significantly different from those of August and April 2016.

Lib/Nat voters (57%) were more likely to consider it to be important. Labor (47%), Greens (55%) and Other voters (43%) were more likely to consider it to be not important.

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