Malcolm Turnbull

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total Approve 42% 29% 74% 26% 27%   41% 36% 33% 34% 38% 56%
Total Disapprove 43% 58% 19% 58% 62%   46% 45% 50% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 10% 7% 19% 10% 3% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 32% 22% 55% 16% 24% 34% 31% 28% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 28% 34% 17% 39% 37% 28% 28% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 15% 24% 2% 19% 25% 18% 17% 20% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 15%   13% 7% 16% 11%   14% 19% 18% 20% 21% 21%

42% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (up 1% from last month), and 43% disapproved (down 3%) – a change in net approval rating from -5 to -1. This is his best net rating since June last year – and his highest approval figure since March last year.

74% (down 1%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 29% of ALP voters and 26% of Greens voters.

By gender, men were 45% approve/46% disapprove and women 39% approve/40% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 37% 64% 25% 38% 17%   36% 34% 30% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 44% 20% 62% 40% 75%   47% 43% 49% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 8% 16% 4% 8% 2% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 29% 48% 21% 30% 15% 29% 29% 26% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 27% 18% 33% 33% 39% 25% 28% 26% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 17% 2% 29% 7% 36% 22% 15% 23% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 19%   16% 13% 22% 8%   17% 23% 22% 25% 25% 26%

37% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 1% from last month), and 44% disapproved (down 3%) – a change in net approval rating from -11 to -7.

64% (down 1%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 38% of Greens voters and 25% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 38% approve/49% disapprove and women 36% approve/40% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 42%   14% 79% 29% 44%   43% 39% 38% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 28%   56% 6% 41% 17%   29% 26% 26% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 31%   30% 15% 30% 39%   28% 34% 36% 33% 32% 31%


42% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make a better Prime Minister (down 1% from last month), and 28% thought Bill Shorten would be better (down 1%). 31% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 79% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 56% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (41%) to Turnbull (29%).

46% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 31% prefer Bill Shorten.

37% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 25% prefer Bill Shorten.

Interests represented by parties

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Which political party do you think best represents the interests of –

  Labor Liberal Don’t know   Difference

Labor –Liberal

Working people on low incomes 53% 20% 27%   +33
People on welfare 49% 21% 29%   +28
Students 45% 23% 32%   +22
Working people on average incomes 48% 27% 25%   +21
Pensioners 44% 25% 31%   +19
Families with young children 44% 27% 29%   +17
Ethnic communities 38% 25% 37%   +13
Indigenous people 35% 24% 41%   +11
The next generation of Australians 33% 32% 34%   +1
Rural and regional Australians 31% 34% 35%   -3
Small businesses and self-employed 32% 40% 28%   -8
Working people on high incomes 14% 63% 22%   -49
Big business 14% 65% 21%   -51

 

The Labor Party is considered considerably better than the Liberal Party in representing the interests of working people on low incomes (53% to 20%), people on welfare (49%/21%), students (45%/23%), working people on average incomers (48%/27%) and pensioners (44%/25%).

The Liberal Party is considered best at representing the interests of big business (65% to 14%) and working people on high incomes (63%/14%).

 

Families with children were more likely to think the Labor Party best represents their interests (50% to 24%).

Those aged 18-24 were more likely to think the Labor Party best represents the interests of students (52% to 16%).

Those working full-time were more likely to think the Labor Party best represents the interests of workers on average incomes (47% to 28%).

Those on incomes over $2,000pw were more likely to think the Liberal Party best represents the interests of workers on high incomes (65% to 14%).

Among those aged 65+, 40% think Labor best represents the interests of pensioners and 35% the Liberal Party.

War with North Korea

Oct 9, 2017

Q. How likely do you think it is that there will be a war between North Korean and the USA?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total likely 55%   57% 54% 53% 55%
Total unlikely 36%   36% 38% 37% 34%
Very likely 16%   19% 16% 10% 16%
Somewhat likely 39%   38% 38% 43% 39%
Somewhat unlikely 24%   26% 27% 24% 18%
Very unlikely 12%   10% 11% 13% 16%
Don’t know 10%   7% 8% 10% 11%

 

 

55% believe that there is likely to be a war between North Korean and the USA and 36% think it is unlikely.

There were few major differences across demographic and voter groups.

Women were somewhat more likely than men to think a war was likely (61% compared to 49%).

Older people were less likely to think a war was likely (45% of those aged 55+).

Biggest concern for personal safety

Oct 9, 2017

Q. Which of the following is your biggest concern for your personal safety?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Terrorism 33%   30% 40% 20% 40%
Car accident 20%   19% 21% 27% 17%
Nuclear warfare 13%   16% 12% 7% 10%
Catastrophic climate change 7%   9% 3% 23% 6%
Gang violence 7%   5% 7% 7% 11%
Natural disaster 7%   5% 6% 9% 7%
Family violence 2%   3% 2%
Don’t know 12%   13% 9% 7% 9%

 

Major concerns for personal safety were terrorism (33%), car accident (20%) and nuclear war (13%).

Liberal/National voters were more concerned about terrorism (40%) and Greens voters more concerned about climate change (23%).

There were no major differences across demographic groups.

Federal voting intention

Oct 4, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 26/9/17 2 weeks ago 19/9/17 4 weeks ago 5/9/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 33%   33% 34% 33%    
National 3%   4% 3% 4%    
Total Liberal/National 36%   37% 38% 36%   42.0%
Labor 38%   37% 36% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10%   10% 10% 10%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 2%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7%   7% 8% 8%    
Other/Independent 7%   6% 5% 6%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 46%   47% 48% 47%   50.4%
Labor 54%   53% 52% 53%   49.6%

 

  1. Sample = 1,841. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Same sex marriage

Oct 4, 2017

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Attend church at least once a month

(21%)

Attend church less often

(31%)

Never attend church

(48%)

  Jul 2017
Should be allowed to marry 61%   72% 48% 77% 54%   39% 58% 71%   61%
Should not be allowed to marry 32%   23% 43% 18% 41%   53% 34% 22%   26%
Don’t know 7%   5% 9% 4% 6%   8% 8% 7%   13%

 

  Total   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+   Already voted Will

def-initely vote

Will prob-ably vote Will not vote
Should be allowed to marry 61%   54% 67% 68% 62% 51%   66% 61% 61% 29%
Should not be allowed to marry 32%   39% 25% 25% 32% 40%   30% 35% 31% 40%
Don’t know 7%   7% 7% 7% 6% 9%   4% 3% 8% 31%

 

61% thought that people of the same sex should be able to marry and 32% thought that they should not.

Women (67% support) were more likely than men (54%) to support same sex marriage.

72% of 18-24 year olds supported same sex marriage, compared to 40% of over 65 year olds.

Support for same sex marriage has remained stable over the last few years but opposition has increased and those who don’t have an opinion has declined.

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