Federal voting intention

Jun 19, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   2 weeks ago 5/618 4 weeks ago 22/5/18   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 35% 34% 38%
National 3% 3% 2%
Total Liberal/National 38%   36% 40%   42.0%
Labor 35%   37% 36%   34.7%
Greens 11% 10% 10% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 2% 2% 1%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 8% 8%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 6% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 48%   46% 49%   50.4%
Labor 52%   54% 51%   49.6%

 

  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Party trust to handle issues

Jun 19, 2018

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

  Liberal Labor Don’t know   Differ-ence Differ-ence

Jan 2018

Security and the war on terrorism 42% 25% 33%   +17 +18
Management of the economy 39% 33% 28%   +6 +10
Controlling interest rates 35% 29% 36%   +6 +4
Political leadership 34% 32% 34%   +2 -2
Managing population growth 32% 30% 38%   +2 +3
Ensuring a quality water supply 30% 31% 39%   -1 +1
Treatment of asylum seekers 31% 33% 36%   -2 +1
Addressing climate change 26% 33% 41%   -7 -14
Ensuring a fair taxation system 30% 38% 32%   -8 -11
Ensuring a quality education for all children 30% 39% 31%   -9 -11
Housing affordability 26% 35% 39%   -9 -12
Protecting the environment 26% 35% 39%   -9 -12
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 30% 40% 30%   -10 -11
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 28% 38% 33%   -10 -10
A fair industrial relations system 28% 40% 32%   -12 -13

 

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war on terrorism (+17, down 1 since January), management of the economy (+6, down 4) and controlling interest rates (+6, up 2).

 

The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a fair industrial relations system (+12, down 1), protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+10, no change) and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system  (+10, down 1).

 

Since this question was asked in January, the Labor Party has improved its position against the Liberal Party on management of the economy (up 4) while losing ground on addressing climate change (down 7).

Importance of international relationships

Jun 19, 2018

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

  Very import-ant Quite import-ant Not very import-ant Don’t know   Very impor-tant

Mar 11

Very import-ant

Nov 13

Very import-ant

Oct 14

Very import-ant

May 15

Very import-ant

Jul 16

Very import-ant

Mar 17

Change
United States 50% 38% 5% 6% 60% 59% 53% 44% 49% 47% +3
United Kingdom 47% 39% 8% 6% 56% 48% 48% 39% 41% 47%
China 39% 44% 10% 7% 48% 54% 44% 39% 42% 43% -4
Japan 30% 49% 12% 8% 39% 35% 31% 31% 25% 30%
Canada 24% 45% 22% 10% na na 26% 24% 22% 25% -1
Indonesia 23% 46% 21% 10% 31% 40% 32% 21% 26% 25% -2
Germany 16% 46% 26% 11% 23% 20% 22% 20% 19% 20% -4
India 19% 45% 26% 10% 26% 26% 22% 22% 19% 17% +2
Russia 17% 39% 33% 12% na na 16% 13% 17% 17%
Saudi Arabia 14% 35% 36% 15% na na 17% 14% 13% 13% +1

50% of respondents think it is very important to have a close relationship with the United States and 47% think it is very important to have a close relationship with the United Kingdom and 39% with China. Relations with Russia (17%) and Saudi Arabia (14%) were thought to be the least important.

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 66% of Liberal/National voters, 44% of Labor voters and 37% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked in March last year, the importance of our relationship with the United States has increased 3% and the importance of our relationships with China and Germany declined by 4%.

World leaders

Jun 19, 2018

Q. Do you hold favourable or unfavourable views of the following world leaders?

  Favourable Unfavourable Don’t know   Favour-able Vote Labor Favour-able Vote Lib/Nat Favour-able Vote Greens Favour-able Vote other Favour-able July 2017
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern 54% 11% 34%   61% 56% 72% 48% na
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 54% 14% 32%   59% 61% 65% 41% 51%
German Chancellor Angela Merkel 43% 18% 39%   47% 48% 49% 35% 43%
French President Emmanuel Macron 42% 15% 43%   41% 51% 48% 33% 41%
UK Prime Minister Theresa May 42% 19% 40%   42% 55% 34% 34% 33%
US President Donald Trump 22% 64% 14%   18% 30% 6% 38% 16%
Russian President Vladimir Putin 19% 56% 25%   21% 18% 18% 24% 16%
North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-Un 9% 68% 23%   9% 11% 4% 12% 6%

More than half the respondents had a favourable view of Jacinda Ardern (54%) and Justin Trudeau (54%).

Liberal/National voters were more likely than average to have a favourable view of Theresa May (55%), Emmanuel Macron (51%), and Donald Trump (30%).

Labor voters did not differ much from the average – except for their high rating of Jacinda Ardern (61% favourable).

Main changes since this question was asked in July last year were increased favourabi8lity for Theresa May (up 9%) and Donald Trump (up 6%).

US North Korea agreement

Jun 19, 2018

Q. Do you think the agreement signed by US President Donald Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un will make the world more safe or less safe or will it make no difference?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Make the world more safe 35%   34% 46% 24% 32%
Make the world less safe 8%   8% 5% 20% 10%
Make no difference 41%   44% 38% 41% 45%
Don’t know 16%   14% 11% 15% 13%

35% think that the agreement signed by US President Donald Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un will make the world more safe, 8% think it will make the world less safe and 41% think it will make no difference.

46% of Liberal National voters think it will make the world more safe.

Tax cuts

Jun 19, 2018

Q. Do you support or oppose the following Government proposals for tax cuts?

  Total support Total

oppose

  Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
A tax cut of $530 for middle and lower income earners from next year. 79% 9%   35% 44% 6% 3% 12%
Changing the tax rates so that workers earning between $40,000 and $200,000 pay the same rate of tax 37% 47%   12% 25% 28% 19% 16%
Cutting the tax rate for businesses from 30% to 25% estimated to cost $65 billion over the next 10 years 39% 39%   12% 27% 21% 18% 23%

 

There was strong support (79%) for the proposed tax cut of $530 for middle and lower income earners from next year.

However, respondents were more likely to oppose changing the tax rates so that workers earning between $40,000 and $200,000 pay the same rate of tax (37% support/47% oppose). Full-time workers were split on this (45% support/43% oppose) while part-time workers were strongly opposed (29% support/56% oppose). All income groups were more likely to be opposed except for those earning over $2,000 pw who were split 47% support/42% oppose.

Respondents were evenly divided over cutting the tax rate for businesses (39% support/39% oppose). Liberal National voters tended to support this (56% support/28% oppose) while Labor voters were more likely to be opposed (29% support/51% oppose).

Preferred tax plans

Jun 19, 2018

Q. The Government’s budget proposes to provide a tax cut of $530 for middle and lower income earners from next year, and then in seven years change the tax rates so that workers earning between $40,000 and $200,000 pay the same rate of tax. Labor proposes to provide a larger tax cut of $928 for middle and lower income earners, and ask those in the top tax bracket to pay a little more to help reduce the deficit. Which of these proposals do you prefer?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   May 2018
The Government proposal 29%   12% 53% 18% 27%   33%
The Labor proposal 50%   76% 30% 65% 52%   45%
Don’t know 21%   12% 17% 17% 21%   22%

50% prefer the Labor tax plan and 33% the Government’s plan.

All income groups strongly favour the Labor plan. Even those earning more than $2,000 pw favour then Labor plan 50% to 36%.

Since this question was asked last month there has been a considerable shift in favour of the Labor plan.

ABC

Jun 19, 2018

Q. Do you think funding for the following ABC services should be increased, decreased or stay the same?

  Increase funding Decrease funding Same funding Don’t know
Local news in rural and regional areas 36% 11% 38% 16%
Emergency broadcasts 45% 8% 32% 15%
Children’s entertainment 20% 14% 50% 15%
News and current affairs 28% 13% 45% 14%
Support for local Australian content and film makers 38% 12% 35% 16%

 

The majority believe that funding for all ABC services should be increased or maintained.

The services with most support for increased funding were emergency broadcasts (45%), local Australian content and film makers (38%) and local news in rural and regional areas (36%).

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