Federal voting intention

Feb 13, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   2 weeks ago 30/1/18 4 weeks ago 16/1/18   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 33% 32% 34%
National 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 36%   35% 37%   42.0%
Labor 37%   36% 38%   34.7%
Greens 10% 10% 9% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 4% 3% 3%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6% 8% 6%
Other/Independent 7% 8% 7% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 46%   46% 47%   50.4%
Labor 54%   54% 53%   49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Feb 13, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Jan 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec  2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total Approve 39% 23% 73% 24% 27%   38% 41% 41% 36% 33% 34% 38% 56%
Total Disapprove 42% 60% 16% 54% 62%   45% 44% 46% 45% 50% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 7% 4% 16% 3% 3% 7% 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 32% 19% 57% 21% 24% 31% 33% 34% 31% 28% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 26% 33% 14% 32% 37% 25% 27% 28% 28% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 16% 27% 2% 22% 25% 20% 17% 18% 17% 20% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 19%   18% 12% 22% 11%   18% 15% 14% 19% 18% 20% 21% 21%

39% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (up 1% from last month), and 42% disapproved (down 3%) – a change in net approval rating from -7 to -3.

73% (up 5%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 23% of ALP voters and 24% of Greens voters.

By gender, men were 39% approve/48% disapprove and women 39% approve/36% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Feb 13, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 33% 61% 17% 36% 20%   32% 36% 36% 34% 30% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 46% 20% 71% 42% 66%   49% 45% 47% 43% 49% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 7% 16% 2% 6% 1% 7% 7% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 26% 45% 15% 30% 19% 25% 29% 29% 29% 26% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 25% 16% 31% 31% 37% 26% 23% 25% 28% 26% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 21% 4% 40% 11% 29% 23% 22% 22% 15% 23% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 21%   20% 13% 22% 13%   20% 19% 17% 23% 22% 25% 25% 26%

33% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 1% from last month), and 46% disapproved (down 3%) – a change in net approval rating from -17 to -13.

61% (up 1%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 36% of Greens voters and 17% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 36% approve/49% disapprove and women 32% approve/43% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Feb 13, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 42%   18% 84% 19% 35%   42% 42% 43% 39% 38% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 27%   55% 6% 35% 22%   25% 28% 29% 26% 26% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 31%   27% 10% 46% 43%   33% 31% 28% 34% 36% 33% 32% 31%


42% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister (no change from last month), and 27% thought Bill Shorten would be better (up 2%). 31% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 84% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 55% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (35%) to Malcolm Turnbull (19%).

43% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 30% prefer Bill Shorten.

40% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 24% prefer Bill Shorten.

Economic statements

Feb 13, 2018

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

  Total agree Total dis-agree   Strongly agree Agree Dis-agree Strongly dis-agree Don’t know
A corporate tax cut will lead to higher wages 30% 42% 8% 22% 28% 14% 29%
Cutting penalty rates will encourage employers to hire more workers 38% 46% 10% 28% 28% 18% 16%
Increasing migration creates economic growth by building demand 33% 50% 8% 25% 28% 22% 17%
Free trade agreements benefit Australian workers 45% 28% 10% 35% 19% 9% 28%
Personal income tax cuts will generate economic growth 65% 16% 16% 49% 12% 4% 19%
Increasing workers’ wages will mean fewer jobs 29% 55% 6% 23% 41% 14% 16%

 
There was majority agreement (65%) that “Personal income tax cuts will generate economic growth” and majority disagreement that “Increasing workers’ wages will mean fewer jobs” (55% disagree) and “Increasing migration creates economic growth by building demand” (50%).

Respondents were more likely to disagree that “A corporate tax cut will lead to higher wages” (42% disagree) and “Cutting penalty rates will encourage employers to hire more workers” (46%).

Full-time workers were more likely to agree that “Personal income tax cuts will generate economic growth “ (71%) and part-time workers were more likely to disagree that “Cutting penalty rates will encourage employers to hire more workers” (52%).

 

  Total agree Total dis-agree   Full-time worker agree Full-time worker dis-agree Part-time worker agree Part-time worker dis-agree
A corporate tax cut will lead to higher wages 30% 42% 35% 43% 26% 44%
Cutting penalty rates will encourage employers to hire more workers 38% 46% 37% 48% 35% 52%
Increasing migration creates economic growth by building demand 33% 50% 35% 49% 36% 46%
Free trade agreements benefit Australian workers 45% 28% 45% 32% 41% 27%
Personal income tax cuts will generate economic growth 65% 16% 71% 15% 60% 18%
Increasing workers’ wages will mean fewer jobs 29% 55% 29% 58% 29% 58%

 

 

 

Company tax cut

Feb 13, 2018

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Cutting the company tax rate will bring Australia’s tax base into line with other nations, attract investment and create more jobs and higher wages 32%   24% 53% 19% 28%
Cutting the company tax rate will simply deliver business $50 billion more in profits – it won’t result in higher wages. 38%   48% 24% 52% 49%
Not sure 30%   28% 23% 29% 22%

 

Respondents were divided over these statements. 38% agreed more that “Cutting the company tax rate will simply deliver business $50 billion more in profits . . . “ and 32% agreed more that “Cutting the company tax rate will bring Australia’s tax base into line with other nations  . . . “. 30% were not sure.

Those more likely to agree that  “Cutting the company tax rate will simply deliver business $50 billion more in profits . . . “ were Labor voters (48%), Greens voters (52%) and other voters (49%).

Those more likely to agree that “Cutting the company tax rate will bring Australia’s tax base into line with other nations  . . . “. were LNP voters (53%) and workers on incomes over $2,000pw. (41%).

Company tax cuts and wages

Feb 13, 2018

Q. Would you approve or disapprove of forcing businesses to pass on a certain proportion of their tax cuts as pay rises for their workers?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total approve 72%   79% 73% 72% 71%
Total disapprove 10%   6% 15% 3% 14%
Strongly approve 28%   38% 22% 30% 26%
Approve 44%   41% 51% 42% 45%
Disapprove 8%   5% 13% 2% 9%
Strongly disapprove 2%   1% 2% 1% 5%
Don’t know 18%   15% 12% 25% 15%

72% approve of forcing businesses to pass on a certain proportion of their tax cuts as pay rises for their workers and only 10% disapprove. There were only small differences across voter groups – and over 70% of each voter group approved.

74% of full-time workers and 71% of part-time workers approved.

Statements about Adani coal mine

Feb 13, 2018

Q. Indian mining company Adani wants to build a new coal mine in Queensland which would produce coal to be exported back to India. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

  Total agree Total dis-agree   Strongly agree Agree Dis-agree Strongly dis-agree Don’t know   Qld. agree Qld dis-agree
The mine will create jobs that Queensland badly needs 58% 25%   15% 43% 13% 12% 18%   72% 19%
The mine will undermine jobs in Queensland tourism by contributing to damage to the great Barrier Reef 53% 22%   26% 27% 16% 6% 24%   42% 39%
The mine will divert investment that would better be spent on developing the renewable industry 51% 25%   23% 28% 18% 7% 24%   47% 33%
The mine will undermine attempts to act on climate change 52% 26%   24% 28% 17% 9% 21%   48% 37%

 

A majority agreed with each statement with around one quarter disagreeing.

However, Queensland respondents were more likely to agree that the mine will create jobs that Queensland badly needs, and somewhat less likely to agree with the other statements.

The views of Labor voters were similar to the average while LNP voters were more likely to agree that the mine will create jobs that Queensland badly needs (70%) and more likely to disagree with the other statements.


 

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