Federal voting intention

Apr 10, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   2 weeks ago 27/3/18 4 weeks ago 13/3/18   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 35% 35% 33%
National 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 38%   38% 36%   42.0%
Labor 37%   36% 38%   34.7%
Greens 10% 9% 9% 10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 2% 2% 3%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 8% 8%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 7% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 47%   48% 46%   50.4%
Labor 53%   52% 54%   49.6%

 

  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Malcolm Turnbull

Apr 10, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec  2016 June 2016 Dec 2015
Total approve 39%   24% 70% 33% 25%   41% 41% 41% 36% 33% 34% 38% 56%
Total disapprove 42%   62% 20% 49% 62%   43% 44% 46% 45% 50% 46% 40% 23%
Strongly approve 8%   4% 17% 3% 5%   9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 13%
Approve 31%   20% 53% 30% 20%   32% 33% 34% 31% 28% 29% 32% 43%
Disapprove 26%   36% 17% 30% 31%   26% 27% 28% 28% 30% 30% 24% 16%
Strongly disapprove 16%   26% 3% 19% 31%   17% 17% 18% 17% 20% 16% 16% 7%
Don’t know 19%   14% 10% 18% 14%   16% 15% 14% 19% 18% 20% 21% 21%

39% approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Prime Minister (down 2% from last month), and 42% disapproved (down 1%) – a change in net approval rating from -2 to -3.

70% (down 5%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing, compared to 24% of ALP voters and 33% of Greens voters.

By gender, men were 44% approve/45% disapprove and women 35% approve/40% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Apr 10, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014
Total Approve 35% 59% 23% 40% 15%   37% 36% 36% 34% 30% 35% 27% 35%
Total Disapprove 43% 21% 62% 37% 68%   44% 45% 47% 43% 49% 38% 47% 39%
Strongly approve 6% 14% 2% 3% 2% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 7%
Approve 29% 45% 21% 37% 13% 29% 29% 29% 29% 26% 29% 23% 28%
Disapprove 22% 19% 22% 32% 28% 23% 23% 25% 28% 26% 21% 26% 23%
Strongly disapprove 21% 2% 40% 5% 40% 21% 22% 22% 15% 23% 17% 21% 16%
Don’t know 23%   19% 14% 23% 17%   19% 19% 17% 23% 22% 25% 25% 26%

35% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (down 2% from last month), and 43% disapproved (down 1%) – a change in net approval rating from -7 to -8.

59% (down 7%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 40% of Greens voters and 23% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 39% approve/45% disapprove and women 31% approve/39% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Apr 10, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017 Dec 2016 Jun 2016 Dec 2015
Malcolm Turnbull 41%   18% 78% 30% 38%   41% 42% 43% 39% 38% 39% 40% 54%
Bill Shorten 26%   55% 8% 34% 12%   26% 28% 29% 26% 26% 28% 29% 15%
Don’t know 33%   26% 15% 36% 50%   33% 31% 28% 34% 36% 33% 32% 31%


41% thought that Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister (no change from last month), and 26% thought Bill Shorten would be better (no change). 33% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 78% of Liberal/National voters saying that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister, and 55% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (34%) to Malcolm Turnbull (30%).

46% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 28% prefer Bill Shorten.

35% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 25% prefer Bill Shorten.

Attributes of Malcolm Turnbull

Apr 10, 2018

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull?

  Total Jun 2017 Feb 2017   Change
Intelligent 74% 72% 72%   +2
Out of touch with ordinary people 63% 65% 65%   -2
Hard-working 60% 59% 61%   +1
A capable leader 53% 50% 50%   +3
Arrogant 51% 55% 56%   -4
Superficial 51% 52% 52%   -1
Good in a crisis 47% 45% 44%   +2
Understands the problems facing Australia 45% 43% 44%   +2
Narrow-minded 44% 47% 48%   -3
Trustworthy 38% 35% 36%   +3
More honest than most politicians 36% 33% 34%   +3
Intolerant 34% 37% 39%   -3
Erratic 34% 36% 34%   -2
Visionary 34% 34% 30%  
Aggressive 30% 34% 31%   -4

Malcolm Turnbull’s key attributes were intelligent (74%, up 2% since last June), out of touch with ordinary people (63%, down 2%), hard working (60%, up 1%) and a capable leader (53%, up 3%).

 

There have mostly only been small changes in perceptions since last June. The largest changes have been for arrogant (down 4%) and aggressive (down 4%).


 

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

Apr 10, 2018

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

  Total Jun 2017 Feb 2017   Change
Hard working 60% 59% 61%   +1
Intelligent 59% 58% 60%   +1
Out of touch with ordinary people 50% 47% 47%   +3
Understands the problems facing Australia 47% 48% 48%   -1
Superficial 47% 44% 46%   +3
A capable leader 44% 39% 43%   +5
Narrow-minded 44% 42% 42%   +2
Arrogant 43% 42% 44%   +1
Erratic 40% 40% 38%  
Good in a crisis 40% 35% 37%   +5
Aggressive 36% 35% 35%   +1
Intolerant 36% 34% 36%   +2
Trustworthy 33% 31% 32%   +2
Visionary 33% 29% 29%   +4
More honest than most politicians 30% 26% 29%   +4

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (60%, up 1% since last June), intelligent (59%, up 1%), out of touch with ordinary people (50%, up 3%) and .understands the problems facing Australia (47%, down 1%).

 

There have only been small changes in perceptions since June. The main changes have been for a capable leader (up 5%) and good in a crisis (up 5%).

Leader attributes – comparisons

Apr 10, 2018
  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten   Difference
Intelligent 74% 59%   +15
Out of touch with ordinary people 63% 50%   +13
A capable leader 53% 44%   +9
Arrogant 51% 43%   +8
Good in a crisis 47% 40%   +7
More honest than most politicians 36% 30%   +6
Trustworthy 38% 33%   +5
Superficial 51% 47%   +4
Visionary 34% 33%   +1
Narrow-minded 44% 44%  
Hard-working 60% 60%  
Intolerant 34% 36%   -2
Understands the problems facing Australia 45% 47%   -2
Aggressive 30% 36%   -6
Erratic 34% 40%   -6

 

Compared to Bill Shorten, Malcolm Turnbull is more likely to be considered intelligent (+15), out of touch with ordinary people (+13), a capable leader (+9), arrogant (+8) and good in a crisis (+7).

Best leader of the Liberal Party

Apr 10, 2018

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jun 2014 Aug 2015 Mar 2016 Nov 2016 Mar 2017 Aug 2017 Dec 2017
Malcolm Turnbull 24%   17% 45% 16% 14%   31% 24% 39% 21% 20% 25% 21%
Tony Abbott 11%   7% 17% 2% 18%   18% 18% 9% 11% 10% 10% 10%
Julie Bishop 17%   24% 13% 25% 16%   4% 17% 12% 20% 17% 20% 19%
Christopher Pyne 2%   2% 2% 1% 1%   <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Scott Morrison 2%   2% 3% 2%   1% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Peter Dutton 3%   3% 4% 1% 8%           2% 3% 4%
Someone else 14%   19% 5% 22% 18%   19% 13% 15% 18% 18% 13% 15%
Don’t know 27%   27% 11% 33% 22%   21% 22% 21% 25% 28% 25% 27%

 

24% (up 3% since December) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 17% prefer Julie Bishop (down 2%) and 11% prefer Tony Abbott (up 1%). 14% (down 1%) prefer someone else.

Among Liberal/National voters, 45% (up 5%) prefer Malcolm Turnbull, 13% (down 7%) Julie Bishop and 17% (up 4%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Preferences of men were Malcolm Turnbull 28% (+4%), Julie Bishop 16% (-2%) and Tony Abbott 13% (-).

Preferences of women were Malcolm Turnbull 21% (+3%), Julie Bishop 17% (-3%) and Tony Abbott 9% (+1%).

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