Federal voting intention

Jun 27, 2017

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Total   Last week 20/6/17 2 weeks ago 13/6/17 4 weeks ago 30/5/17   Election 2 Jul 16
Liberal 35%   35% 35% 35%    
National 4%   3% 3% 2%    
Total Liberal/National 39%   38% 38% 38%   42.0%
Labor 36%   35% 36% 36%   34.7%
Greens 10%   9% 10% 11%   10.2%
Nick Xenophon Team 3%   3% 3% 3%    
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7%   9% 8% 5%    
Other/Independent 5%   5% 5% 7%   13.1%
2 party preferred              
Liberal National 48%   48% 48% 47%   50.4%
Labor 52%   52% 52% 53%   49.6%
  1. Sample = 1,792. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Attributes of Malcolm Turnbull

Jun 27, 2017

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull?

  Total Feb 2017   Change
Intelligent 72% 72%  
Out of touch with ordinary people 65% 65%  
Hard-working 59% 61%   -2
Arrogant 55% 56%   -1
Superficial 52% 52%  
A capable leader 50% 50%  
Narrow-minded 47% 48%   -1
Good in a crisis 45% 44%   +1
Understands the problems facing Australia 43% 44%   -1
Intolerant 37% 39%   -2
Erratic 36% 34%   +2
Trustworthy 35% 36%   -1
Aggressive 34% 31%   +3
Visionary 34% 30%   +4
More honest than most politicians 33% 34%   -1

Malcolm Turnbull’s key attributes were intelligent (72%, no change since February), out of touch with ordinary people (65%, no change), hard working (59%, down 2%) and arrogant (55%, down 1%).

There have mostly only been small changes in perceptions since February. The largest changes have been for visionary (up 4%) and aggressive (up 3%).

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

Jun 27, 2017

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

  Total Feb 2017   Change
Hard working 59% 61%   -2
Intelligent 58% 60%   -2
Understands the problems facing Australia 48% 48%  
Out of touch with ordinary people 47% 47%  
Superficial 44% 46%   -2
Arrogant 42% 44%   -2
Narrow-minded 42% 42%  
Erratic 40% 38%   +2
A capable leader 39% 43%   -4
Good in a crisis 35% 37%   -2
Aggressive 35% 35%  
Intolerant 34% 36%   -2
Trustworthy 31% 32%   -1
Visionary 29% 29%  
More honest than most politicians 26% 29%   -3

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (59%, down 2% since February), intelligent (58%, down 2%), understands the problems facing Australia (48%, no change) and out of touch with ordinary people (47%, no change).

Leader attributes – comparisons

Jun 27, 2017
  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten   Difference
Out of touch with ordinary people 65% 47%   +18
Intelligent 72% 58%   +14
Arrogant 55% 42%   +13
A capable leader 50% 39%   +11
Good in a crisis 45% 35%   +10
Superficial 52% 44%   +8
More honest than most politicians 33% 26%   +7
Narrow-minded 47% 42%   +5
Visionary 34% 29%   +5
Trustworthy 35% 31%   +4
Intolerant 37% 34%   +3
Hard-working 59% 59%  
Aggressive 34% 35%   -1
Erratic 36% 40%   -4
Understands the problems facing Australia 43% 48%   -5

 

Compared to Bill Shorten, Malcolm Turnbull is more likely to be considered out of touch with ordinary people (+18), intelligent (+14), arrogant (+13), a capable leader (+11) and good in a crisis (+10).

Perceptions of leaders

Jun 27, 2017

Q. Which party leader would you –

  Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Don’t know
Ask advice about investing money 51% 11% 38%
Most trust to give your children advice about the future 33% 17% 50%
Most like to have over for dinner 36% 24% 40%
Most like to go on holiday with 24% 19% 57%
Prefer to have negotiate your next pay rise 31% 32% 37%
Most trust to cook a good meal 23% 21% 56%
Most like to go to the footy with 25% 26% 49%
Most like to have babysit your children 22% 21% 57%
Ask their advice about a personal issue 21% 21% 58%
Most trust to look after your pet 18% 23% 59%
Most like to go to the pub for a beer with 24% 32% 44%
Think would be more likely to lend you $100 if you needed it 27% 33% 41%
Ask to help you with home renovations 14% 26% 60%
Think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded 21% 35% 43%

 

Gave answer (excluding “don’t know”) Malcolm Turnbull Bill Shorten Difference Difference
(May 2016)
Ask advice about investing money 82% 18% +64 +66
Most trust to give your children advice about the future 65% 35% +30 +34
Most like to have over for dinner 60% 40% +20 +26
Most like to go on holiday with 56% 44% +12 +20
Most trust to cook a good meal 53% 47% +6 +12
Most like to have babysit your children 51% 49% +2 +2
Most like to go to the footy with 48% 52% -4 +2
Prefer to have negotiate your next pay rise 49% 51% -2 +14
Ask their advice about a personal issue 50% 50% +2
Think would be more likely to lend you $100 if you needed it 45% 55% -10 -8
Most trust to look after your pet 44% 56% -12 -6
Most like to go to the pub for a beer with 43% 57% -14 -8
Think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded 38% 62% -24 -28
Ask to help you with home renovations 36% 64% -28 -18

Malcolm Turnbull was preferred as a better source of advice investing money, giving advice to children about the future, and having over for dinner.

Bill Shorten was more trusted to help with home renovations, to help if your car was stranded, and to go to the pub for a beer.

Party trust to handle issues

Jun 27, 2017

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

  Liberal Labor Don’t know   Differe-nce Difference

Dec 2016

Security and the war on terrorism 41% 21% 38% +20 +17
Management of the economy 40% 25% 34% +15 +14
Controlling interest rates 34% 24% 42% +10 +7
Political leadership 35% 27% 38% +8 +6
Managing population growth 30% 24% 46% +6 +7
Treatment of asylum seekers 31% 30% 39% +1 +6
Ensuring a quality water supply 27% 32% 41% -5 -3
Ensuring a fair taxation system 27% 37% 36% -10 -1
Ensuring a quality education for all children 29% 40% 31% -11 -11
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 28% 39% 33% -11 -12
Housing affordability 24% 36% 40% -12 -9
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 26% 39% 34% -13 -9
A fair industrial relations system 27% 41% 32% -14 -7
Protecting the environment 23% 37% 40% -14 -14
Addressing climate change 23% 39% 39% -16 -14

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war on terrorism (+20, up 3 from December) and management of the economy (+15, up 1).

The Labor Party is trusted more to handle addressing climate change (+16, up 2), protecting the environment (+14, no change), and a fair industrial relations system (+14, up 7).

Since this question was asked in December, the Liberal party has improved its position against the Labor party on security and the war on terrorism (up 3) and controlling interest rates (up 3). The Labor Party has improved its position against the Liberal Party on ensuring a fair taxation system (up 9), a fair industrial relations system (up 7), treatment of asylum seekers (up 5) and protecting Australian jobs and local industries (up 4).

Political donations

Jun 27, 2017

Q. Would you support or oppose introducing the following requirement concerning political donation?

  Total support Total oppose   Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know Total support (Nov 2016) Total oppose (Nov 2016)
All politicians to publicly disclose meetings with representatives of companies, donors or unions 79% 6% 45% 34% 5% 1% 16% 77% 6%
Political donations to be reported immediately by political parties, compared to annual reports at the moment 78% 5% 45% 33% 4% 1% 17% 73% 6%
A ban on foreign donations 64% 15% 43% 21% 12% 3% 21% 66% 12%
A cap on donations of $5000 61% 15% 32% 29% 12% 3% 24% 61% 13%
A ban on political donations by companies and unions 60% 16% 31% 29% 13% 3% 24% 59% 16%
All donations banned and all political party spending to be taxpayer funded 30% 46%   15% 15% 20% 26% 24% 25% 49%

 

Support by party preference Total support   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
All politicians to publicly disclose meetings with representatives of companies, donors or unions 79% 84% 77% 87% 86%
Political donations to be reported immediately by political parties, compared to annual reports at the moment 78% 82% 78% 88% 85%
A ban on foreign donations 64% 66% 63% 69% 81%
A cap on donations of $5000 61% 63% 57% 73% 72%
A ban on political donations by companies and unions 60% 61% 62% 70% 67%
All donations banned and all political party spending to be taxpayer funded 30%   33% 30% 37% 29%

There was majority support for all listed reforms except taxpayer funding for political parties (30% support/46% oppose). However, support for this reform has increased by 5% since it was last asked in November.

There was particularly strong support for public disclosure of meetings (79%, up 2% from November) and immediate reporting of donations (78%, up 5%).

Labor voters were a little more supportive than Liberal/National voters of all reforms listed, with the exception of a ban on political donations by companies and unions.

Greens voters were more supportive than Liberal/National voters and Labor voters for all of the reforms.

 

Climate Change and Voting

Jun 27, 2017

Q. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

“Climate change policy is one of the most important issues in determining my vote at Federal elections”

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Total agree 40%   51% 31% 77% 24%
Total disagree 30%   24% 37% 6% 51%
Strongly agree 16%   19% 8% 46% 12%
Agree 24%   32% 23% 31% 12%
Neither agree not disagree 24%   22% 27% 16% 21%
Disagree 14%   13% 19% 4% 16%
Strongly disagree 16%   11% 18% 2% 35%
Don’t know 7%   3% 5% 1% 3%

40% agreed that climate change policy is one of the most important issues for them when determining their vote at a federal election, and 30% disagreed.

The statement was agreed with by a majority of Greens voters (77% agree) and Labor voters (51% agree).

More Liberal/National voters disagreed with the statement than agreed with it (31% agree, 37% disagree), and a majority of independent and other party voters disagreed (51% disagree).

Outside of voting intention, those most likely to agree with the statement were those with a University degree (50% agree), those aged 18-29 (49%) and Victorians (47%). Those most likely to disagree with the statement were those aged 65+ (42% disagree) and Western Australians (40%).

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