Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Mar 2014 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | ||
| Sample | 797 | 803 | 912 | 942 | 880 | 779 | 911 | 948 | 876 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||||||
| Liberal | 44.8% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 32% | 28% | 31% | 30% | 31% | |
| Labor | 35.8% | 39% | 37% | 34% | 38% | 35% | 35% | 36% | 37% | 34% | |
| Greens | 8.7% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% | |
| Nick Xenophon ‘s SA-Best | 15% | 20% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 18% | 22% | |||
| Other/Independent | 10.7% | 19% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 6% | |
| 2PP | |||||||||||
| Liberal | 53.0% | 46% | 46% | 49% | 46% | 49% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 49% | |
| Labor | 47.0% | 54% | 54% | 51% | 54% | 51% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 51% |
On first preference votes Labor is on 34%, Liberals 31%, SA-Best 22% and Greens 8%. SA-Best (formerly Nick Xenophon Team) is up 4 points on the previous quarter.
The 2PP favours Labor 51/49, but is very much dependent on the flow of SA-Best preferences (approximated at 60/40 to the Liberals which is the pollster’s estimate based on current polling).