State voting intention SA

Jan 9, 2018

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Mar 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016 Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017
Sample 797 803 912 942 880 779 911 948 876
First preference vote        
Liberal 44.8% 32% 29% 30% 30% 32% 28% 31% 30% 31%
Labor 35.8% 39% 37% 34% 38% 35% 35% 36% 37% 34%
Greens 8.7% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 8%
Nick Xenophon ‘s SA-Best 15% 20% 16% 17% 18% 19% 18% 22%
Other/Independent 10.7% 19% 10% 9% 9% 8% 12% 8% 10% 6%
2PP  
Liberal 53.0% 46% 46% 49% 46% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49%
Labor 47.0% 54% 54% 51% 54% 51% 52% 52% 52% 51%

 

On first preference votes Labor is on 34%, Liberals 31%, SA-Best 22% and Greens 8%. SA-Best (formerly Nick Xenophon Team) is up 4 points on the previous quarter.

The 2PP favours Labor 51/49, but is very much dependent on the flow of SA-Best preferences (approximated at 60/40 to the Liberals which is the pollster’s estimate based on current polling).

 

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