State voting intention VIC

Jan 9, 2018

Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

  Election

Nov 2014

  Oct-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar

2016

Apr-Jun 2016 Jul-Sep 2016 Oct-Dec 2016
Sample 2,402 2,383 2,803 2,880 2,631
First preference vote          
Liberal/National 42.0% 40% 41% 41% 40% 41%
Labor 38.1% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38%
Greens 11.5% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11%
Other/Independent 8.4% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9%
2PP      
Liberal/National 48.0% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 52.0% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53%
Jan-Mar 2017 Apr-Jun 2017 Jul-Sep 2017 Oct-Dec 2017   Oct Nov Dec
2,413 2,838 2,859 2,633   1,096 870 667
         
40% 41% 42% 43% 40% 43% 46%
39% 38% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37%
11% 12% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9%
10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 8%
         
47% 47% 48% 49% 47% 49% 51%
53% 53% 52% 51% 53% 51% 49%

First preference votes were Labor 38%, LNP 43%, Greens 10% – very similar figures to the 2014 election.
Over the last half of 2017 the LNP has closed the 2PP gap on Labor – currently at 51/49 to Labor. However, the monthly figures suggest that the LNP is continuing to make gains, recording a lead of 51/49 in December.

 

 

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