Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Election
Nov 2014 |
Oct-Dec 2015 | Jan-Mar
2016 |
Apr-Jun 2016 | Jul-Sep 2016 | Oct-Dec 2016 | ||
| Sample | 2,402 | 2,383 | 2,803 | 2,880 | 2,631 | ||
| First preference vote | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 42.0% | 40% | 41% | 41% | 40% | 41% | |
| Labor | 38.1% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | |
| Greens | 11.5% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% | |
| Other/Independent | 8.4% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% | |
| 2PP | |||||||
| Liberal/National | 48.0% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% | |
| Labor | 52.0% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| Jan-Mar 2017 | Apr-Jun 2017 | Jul-Sep 2017 | Oct-Dec 2017 | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 2,413 | 2,838 | 2,859 | 2,633 | 1,096 | 870 | 667 | |
| 40% | 41% | 42% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 46% | |
| 39% | 38% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 37% | 37% | |
| 11% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | |
| 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 8% | |
| 47% | 47% | 48% | 49% | 47% | 49% | 51% | |
| 53% | 53% | 52% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 49% |
First preference votes were Labor 38%, LNP 43%, Greens 10% – very similar figures to the 2014 election.
Over the last half of 2017 the LNP has closed the 2PP gap on Labor – currently at 51/49 to Labor. However, the monthly figures suggest that the LNP is continuing to make gains, recording a lead of 51/49 in December.