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  • Mar, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,891 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

     

    This week

    Liberal

    44%

    45%

    46%

    47%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    48%

    49%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    33%

    33%

    32%

    32%

    Greens

    11.8%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    8%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    54%

    55%

    56%

    56%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    45%

    44%

    44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Leadership Challenge Good or Bad for Government

    Q. Do you think the recent leadership challenge has been good or bad for the Labor Government?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    13%

    30%

    7%

    16%

    Total bad

    62%

    39%

    80%

    50%

    Very good

    4%

    10%

    2%

    4

    Good

    9%

    20%

    5%

    12%

    Neither good nor bad

    18%

    26%

    12%

    28%

    Bad

    24%

    25%

    22%

    28%

    Very bad

    38%

    14%

    58%

    22%

    Don’t know

    6%

    4%

    2%

    6%

    62% think that the recent leadership challenge was bad for the Labor Party and only 13% think it was good.

    Labor voters were split – 39% think it was bad, 30% good and 26% neither good nor bad.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    More or Less Likely to Vote Labor

    Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total more likely

    13%

    33%

    5%

    18%

    Total less likely

    47%

    21%

    64%

    38%

    Much more likely

    6%

    17%

    1%

    5%

    A little more likely

    7%

    16%

    4%

    13%

    A little less likely

    10%

    11%

    7%

    16%

    Much less likely

    37%

    10%

    57%

    22%

    Makes no difference

    34%

    42%

    30%

    43%

    Don’t know

    5%

    3%

    1%

    47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.

    Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Kevin Rudd’s Future

    Q. What do you think Kevin Rudd should do now?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Stay in Parliament and challenge again

    29%

    30%

    28%

    29%

    Stay in Parliament and not challenge again

    28%

    44%

    17%

    46%

    Resign from Parliament

    30%

    17%

    44%

    20%

    Don’t know

    13%

    8%

    10%

    5%

    Respondents were divided about what Kevin Rudd should do – 30% say he should resign from parliament, 29% think he should stay and challenge again and 28% think he should stay and not challenge again.

    Among Labor voters, 44% think he should stay and not challenge, while 44% of Liberal/National voters think he should resign from Parliament. 46% of Greens voters think he should stay in Parliament and not challenge again.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Next Election

    Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

     

    5 Sept 11

    5 Dec 11

    30 Jan 12

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Should run to 2013

    40%

    47%

    48%

    46%

    90%

    17%

    80%

    Should hold election now

    48%

    41%

    41%

    44%

    7%

    77%

    12%

    Don’t know

    12%

    12%

    10%

    10%

    4%

    5%

    8%

    46% think the Labor Government should run its full term until the 2013 election and 44% think an election should be held now.

    Opinions have shifted a little toward having an election now since this question was polled in January.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Performance during Leadership Challenge

    Q. How would you rate the performance of the following during the Labor leadership challenge?

     

    Total good

    Total poor

    Very good

    Good

    Average

    Poor

    Very poor

    Don’t know

    Julia Gillard

    23%

    49%

    10%

    13%

    24%

    17%

    32%

    4%

    Kevin Rudd

    33%

    35%

    12%

    21%

    27%

    16%

    19%

    4%

    Labor Party Ministers

    10%

    52%

    2%

    8%

    30%

    25%

    27%

    8%

    Tony Abbott

    25%

    40%

    9%

    16%

    27%

    18%

    22%

    8%

    The media

    14%

    43%

    3%

    11%

    35%

    20%

    23%

    6%

    Apart from Kevin Rudd, the performance of all parties to the leadership challenge were rated poorly.

    33% thought the performance of Kevin Rudd was good and 35% poor. For Julia Gillard the rating was 23% good and 49% poor. Labor Party Ministers were rated most negatively – 10% good and 52% poor.

    However, Julia Gillard was rated a little better than Kevin Rudd by Labor voters – their rating of Julia Gillard was 50% good/15% poor compared to 49% good/22% poor for Kevin Rudd.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Election of Party Leaders

    Q. Do you think party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour or who the members of Parliament believe is the best person to lead their party?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The person the voters favour

    56%

    52%

    62%

    40%

    The person members of Parliament believe best to lead the party

    30%

    35%

    28%

    49%

    Don’t know

    14%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    A majority of 56% think that party leaders should be elected mainly based on who voters favour and 30% think that the leadership should go to the person the members of Parliament believe is to lead their party.

    Liberal/National voters are more likely to think the leader should be the person the voters favour (62%) while Greens voters tended to favour the person members of Parliament believe best (49%).

    Older voters (aged 55+) were a little more likely to leave the judgment to the Parliamentarians although still prefer the person the voters favour 53% to 39%.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Preferred System for Electing Party Leaders

    Q. Which of the following do you think would be the best way to elect national party leaders?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The Australian system where the leader is elected by the Members of Parliament

    36%

    45%

    36%

    45%

    The US system where registered voters in primaries elect the party’s candidate for President

    31%

    25%

    36%

    23%

    The UK system where MPs, party members (and in Labour’s case, union members from affiliated unions) all get to vote for the party leader

    11%

    10%

    8%

    15%

    Don’t know

    23%

    19%

    19%

    17%

    36% prefer the Australian system of electing the party leader – 31% prefer the US system and 11% the UK system.

    Labor and Greens voters were more likely to prefer the Australian system (45%) and Liberal/National voters the US system (36%).

    45% of people aged 55+ and 45% of those on income of $1,600+ pw favoured the Australian system.

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