11 march 2013, 110313, 2PP, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,948 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 11/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 25/2/13 |
Last week 4/3/13 |
This week 11/3/13 |
| Liberal |
45% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
32% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
11 march 2013, 110313, Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 10 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 Jun |
12 Sep |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sep |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 13 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
37% |
41% |
36% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
53% |
49% |
55% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
32% |
29% |
28% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
32% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
36% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (up 1%) disapprove – a 1-point change in net rating from -19 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.
75% of Labor voters approve (no change) and 16% disapprove (down 3%).
By gender – men 36% approve/60% disapprove, women 37% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -23 to -24 and no change with women (-14).
11 march 2013, 110313, Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 |
5
|
20 Dec |
14 |
14 |
12 |
12 Dec |
12 |
12 |
10 Sep |
10 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
37% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
53% |
51% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
29% |
30% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
27% |
22% |
22% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
37% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -14 over the last 4 weeks.
69% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 20% (down 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/52% disapprove, women 33% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -13 to -10 and with women from -21 to -18.
11 march 2013, 110313, Better PM, Julia Gillard, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 Mar 11 |
14 Jun |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sep |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 13 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
Vote |
Vote Lib |
Vote Gre |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
39% |
39% |
84% |
6% |
71% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
37% |
39% |
2% |
80% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
22% |
14% |
13% |
25% |
39% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37%.
11 march 2013, 110313, asylum seekers, immigration issues
Q. Which of the following issues are you most concerned about?
(two versions of responses were presented – each to approximately half the sample)
|
The arrival of asylum seekers by boat |
38% |
33% |
The arrival of approximately 15,000 asylum seekers by boat each year |
|
The use of foreign workers under short term (457) visas |
20% |
31% |
The use of about 150,000 foreign workers under short term (457) visas each year |
|
The overall increase in Australia’s total population |
18% |
17% |
The overall increase in Australia’s total population of about 300,000 people each year |
|
None of them |
19% |
15% |
None of them |
|
Don’t know |
4% |
4% |
Don’t know |
As general issues (without specific figures), 38% of respondents said they were most concerned about the arrival of asylum seekers by boat compared to 20% most concerned about use of workers on 457 visas and 18% most concerned about the overall population increase.
When approximate figures were specified for each option, most concern about asylum seekers dropped to 33% and most concern about 457 visas increased to 31%.
Based on the options which included figures – 36% of Labor voters are most concerned about 457 visas compared to 32% of Liberal/National voters. Liberal/National voters were more concerned about asylum seekers (42% – compared to 23% for Labor voters).
There were few differences by age or gender – except that older respondents were somewhat more likely to be most concerned about asylum seekers (42% of aged 55+).
Q. Generally, do you think that privatisation – that is, having public services owned or run by private companies – is a good or bad idea?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| A good idea |
22% |
19% |
28% |
14% |
| A bad idea |
58% |
64% |
54% |
70% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
17% |
18% |
17% |
58% think that, generally, privatisation is a bad idea and 22% think it is generally a good idea. More than half of all voter and demographic groups think it is generally a bad idea.
Those most likely to think it is a bad idea were – aged 55+ (66%), Greens voters (70%), Labor voters (64%) and incomes under $600pw (64%).
By state, 26% of NSW and 24% of Victoria think privatisation is generally a good idea compared to 15% for Queensland.
11 march 2013, 110313, government, hospitals and health, ports, prisons, Private Sector, Schools, telecommunications, universities
Q. Which of the following are better run by the private sector and which are better run by Government?
|
11 Mar 2013 |
31 Jan 2011 |
|||||
|
Better run by private sector |
Better run by Government |
Don’t know |
Better run by private sector |
Better run by Government |
Don’t know |
|
| Electricity |
25% |
62% |
13% |
22% |
61% |
17% |
| Water |
19% |
69% |
12% |
15% |
70% |
16% |
| Trains, buses and ferries |
25% |
64% |
11% |
19% |
68% |
13% |
| Motorways |
23% |
66% |
11% |
17% |
70% |
13% |
| Community services such as child protection |
14% |
75% |
11% |
14% |
71% |
15% |
| Telecommunications (including broadband services) |
45% |
44% |
11% |
na |
na |
na |
| Hospitals and health services |
19% |
71% |
10% |
na |
na |
na |
| Schools |
21% |
69% |
10% |
na |
na |
na |
| Prisons |
17% |
73% |
11% |
10% |
76% |
15% |
| Universities |
27% |
61% |
12% |
20% |
64% |
16% |
| Ports |
22% |
60% |
19% |
na |
na |
na |
Most services listed were clearly thought to be better run by Government than the private sector.
The only exception was telecommunications where respondents were split 45% private sector, 44% Government.
The areas most preferred to be run by Government were – community services (75%), prisons (73%), hospitals and health services (71%), schools (69%) and water (69%).
Compared to the results when this question was asked in January 2011, preference for the private sector running services has increased a little – +6% for trains, buses and ferries and motorways and +7% for prisons and universities.