The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report

  • Jun, 2012

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    TRENDS: Half Yearly Report Card


    EMC Director Peter Lewis runs the ruler over the first six months of polling and comes out wondering where all the bad vibes are coming from. When politics is toxic, he argues, the progressive side of politics loses.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,830 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    14/5/12

    2 weeks ago

    28/5/12

    Last week

    4/6/12

    This week

    12/6/12

    Liberal

    47%

    47%

    47%

    46%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    50%

    50%

    50%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    30%

    33%

    33%

    32%

    Greens

    11.8%

    11%

    10%

    10%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    7%

    7%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    57%

    57%

    56%

    56%

    Labor

    50.1%

    43%

    43%

    44%

    44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec 2010

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    16 Apr

    14 May

    12 Jun

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    37%

    36%

    32%

    32%

    31%

    32%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    52%

    53%

    61%

    58%

    60%

    56%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    7%

    5%

    6%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    31%

    30%

    24%

    25%

    26%

    26%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    27%

    26%

    29%

    31%

    26%

    22%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    25%

    27%

    32%

    27%

    34%

    34%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    12%

    11%

    7%

    10%

    10%

    12%

    Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved a little since last month. 32% (up 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -29 to -24 over the last 4 weeks.

    74% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 16% disapprove (down 8%).

    By gender – men 32% approve/57% disapprove, women 32% approve/54% disapprove.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

    2010

    20 Dec 2010

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    16 Apr

    14 May

    12 Jun

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    35%

    35%

    36%

    38%

    36%

    32%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    51%

    53%

    52%

    50%

    53%

    54%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    7%

    7%

    7%

    6%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    28%

    29%

    29%

    31%

    29%

    26%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    25%

    23%

    23%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    26%

    30%

    29%

    27%

    29%

    30%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    12%

    13%

    11%

    13%

    Tony Abbott’s approval rating has declined a little over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 54% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -22 over the last 4 weeks.

    67% (down 4%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 35% approve/56% disapprove, women 30% approve/52% disapprove.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 Mar 2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    16 Apr

    14 May

    12 Jun

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    39%

    41%

    40%

    38%

    38%

    37%

    83%

    4%

    66%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    36%

    34%

    37%

    36%

    37%

    37%

    3%

    78%

    4%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    24%

    26%

    14%

    18%

    30%

    37% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 38%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Approval of Overseas Workers

    Q. The Federal Government recently gave approval to Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers. Do you approve or disapprove of overseas workers being brought in to work in Australia’s mining industry?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    16%

    20%

    19%

    10%

    Total disapprove

    60%

    55%

    61%

    58%

    Strongly approve

    3%

    3%

    3%

    5%

    Approve

    13%

    17%

    16%

    5%

    Neither approve nor disapprove

    20%

    23%

    18%

    30%

    Disapprove

    25%

    27%

    25%

    30%

    Strongly disapprove

    35%

    28%

    36%

    28%

    Don’t know

    5%

    3%

    2%

    2%

     16% approve of the Government’s approval for Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers and 60% disapprove.

    A majority of all voter groups disapproved.

    Highest approval came from men (20%), full-time workers (20%) and respondents aged 65+ (21%).

     

  • Jun, 2012

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    Reason for Bringing in Overseas Workers

    Q. Why do you think mining companies would bring in overseas workers for Australia’s mines?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers

    18%

    20%

    18%

    19%

    Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry

    17%

    17%

    18%

    18%

    It is cheaper to bring in overseas workers

    59%

    60%

    58%

    58%

    Don’t know

    6%

    3%

    5%

    5%

    59% think that mining companies bring in overseas workers because it is cheaper, 18% think Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers and 17% think Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry.

    Views were similar across all voter and demographic groups.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Mining Investment

    Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia

    32%

    19%

    47%

    16%

    Mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes

    49%

    62%

    39%

    69%

    Don’t know

    20%

    19%

    14%

    15%

    49% agree with the statement that mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes and 32% agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia.

    Those most likely to agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia were Liberal/National voters (47%) and residents of Queensland (41%).

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