Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 20, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

 Sample size = 1,864 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/7/12

2 weeks ago

6/8/12

Last week

13/8/12

This week

20/8/12

Liberal

45%

46%

46%

46%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Power Costs

Aug 20, 2012

Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total increased

86%

84%

90%

72%

Increased a lot

42%

35%

48%

23%

Increased a moderate amount

29%

30%

30%

31%

Increased a little

15%

19%

12%

18%

Stayed about the same

7%

9%

5%

13%

Decreased a little

1%

1%

1%

1%

Decreased a moderate amount

*

*

2%

Decreased a lot

1%

2%

*

4%

Don’t know

4%

4%

2%

8%

42% think that gas and electricity prices have increased a lot over the last few years and 29% think they have increased a moderate amount. Only 9% think they have stayed about the same or decreased.

Those most likely to think they have increased a lot were aged 45+ (49%), Liberal/National voters (48%) and Victorians (47%).

Responsibility for Power Prices

Aug 20, 2012

Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increased a lot

Increased a moderate amount

Increased a little

Stayed the same or decreased

The Federal Government

28%

16%

40%

18%

40%

22%

19%

22%

The State Government

23%

27%

21%

28%

23%

28%

21%

18%

The power companies

37%

50%

28%

42%

32%

42%

44%

38%

Don’t know

12%

7%

10%

12%

6%

9%

17%

21%

37% think the power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 28% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 23% think the State Governments are mainly responsible.

Those who think power prices have increased a lot are more likely to think the Federal Government is mainly responsible (40%), while those who think prices have increased a moderate amount, a little or not at all think the power companies are mainly responsible.

50% of Labor voters think the power companies are mainly responsible and 40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible.

Price Increases Since Carbon Tax

Aug 20, 2012

Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?

 

Total

9 July

Total

20 Aug

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes, have noticed an increase in costs

31%

52%

34%

68%

29%

No, have not noticed any increase in costs

54%

36%

54%

21%

64%

Don’t know

15%

12%

12%

11%

7%

52% say they have noticed an increase in the costs of goods or services since the carbon tax was introduced – up 21% from 31% recorded the week after the carbon tax was introduced – and 36% say they have not noticed any increase in costs.

Those most likely to say they have noticed an increase in costs were aged 35-54 (56%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).

Main Reason for Price Increases

Aug 20, 2012

Q. Do you believe these price increases are due mainly to the carbon tax, or mainly due to other reasons? *

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Mainly due to carbon tax

72%

53%

81%

70%

Mainly due to other reasons

17%

36%

9%

18%

Don’t know

11%

12%

10%

13%

* based on the 52% who have noticed price increases

72% of those who said they had noticed cost increases think it is mainly dues to the carbon tax.

Those most likely to blame the carbon tax were Liberal/National voters (81%), aged under 35 (78%) and those earning over $1,000pw (76%).

Approval of Recommendations on Asylum Seekers

Aug 20, 2012

Q. An expert panel appointed by the Federal Government has made a number of recommendations for handling asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat. Do you approve or disapprove of the following recommendations?

 

Total approve

Total disapprove

Strongly approve

Approve

Dis-approve

Strongly disapprove

Don’t know

Expanding Australia’s humanitarian program immediately from 13,500 places per year to 20,000

42%

46%

13%

29%

20%

26%

12%

Limiting the ways refugees who have arrived by boat can bring their families to Australia

72%

18%

40%

32%

11%

7%

11%

Reopening detention facilities in Nauru and Manus Islands

67%

18%

36%

31%

11%

7%

14%

Detaining offshore refugees who have arrived by boat for several years

47%

39%

26%

21%

22%

17%

13%

Pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia as the basis for a regional solution

30%

47%

11%

19%

22%

25%

23%

Consider turning back boats in the future but only if special conditions are met

66%

21%

35%

31%

11%

10%

13%

There was strong majority approval of the recommendations to limit the ways refugees who have arrived by boat can bring their families to Australia (72%), reopen detention facilities in Nauru and Manus Islands (67%) and consider turning back boats (66%). Respondents were a little more in favour of detaining offshore refugees for several years (47% approve/39% disapprove) and divided over expanding Australia’s humanitarian program (42%/46%). 47% disapproved of pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia as the basis for a regional solution.

48% of Labor voters and 81% of Greens voters approved expanding Australia’s humanitarian aid but 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.

48% of Labor voters approved pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia but 59% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.

45% of Labor voters and 81% of Liberal/National voters approved turning back boats but 56% of Greens voters disapproved.

Men favoured detaining refugees for several years (58% approve/31% disapprove while women were more likely to be opposed (38% approve/46% disapprove).

Approval of Accepting all Recommendations

Aug 20, 2012

Q. The Federal Government and the Opposition have agreed to implement all of these recommendations. Do you approve or disapprove of implementing all the recommendations of the panel?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

62%

65%

70%

34%

Total disapprove

21%

22%

16%

56%

Strongly approve

17%

17%

22%

3%

Approve

45%

48%

48%

31%

Disapprove

16%

19%

12%

33%

Strongly disapprove

5%

3%

4%

23%

Don’t know

16%

13%

13%

10%

62% approved of implementing all of the panel’s recommendations – 65% of Labor voters, 70% of Liberal/National voters but only 34% of Greens voters.

Those most likely to approve were men (68%), aged 55+ (75%) and those on incomes under $600pw (70%).

Correction: We have been advised that the Coalition has not formally responded to each the recommendations of the Houston Panel. Our question was framed soon after the release of the expert panel’s report when it appeared that the Coalition would accept the panel’s recommendations. Therefore, the responses to this question may not accurately represent public opinion.

Effectiveness of Recommendations

Aug 20, 2012

Q. How effective do you think the panel recommendations will be in terms of –

 

Very effective

Quite effective

A little effective

Not effective

Don’t know

Stopping boats of asylum seekers landing in Australia

12%

19%

34%

24%

11%

Providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers

11%

29%

32%

18%

11%

Keeping Government costs down

8%

13%

27%

36%

16%

31% think the recommendations will be very/quite effective in stopping boats, 40% very/quite effective in providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers and 21% very/quite effective in keeping Government costs down.

38% of Liberal/National voters, 32% of Labor voters and 15% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in stopping boats.

48% of Liberal/National voters, 41% of Labor voters and 16% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers.

27% of Liberal/National voters, 20% of Labor voters and 12% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in keeping Government costs down.

Sign up for updates

Receive our weekly Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.