Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 21, 2014

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,962 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

5 weeks ago

17/12/13

This week

21/1/14

Liberal

 

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

44%

43%

Labor

33.4%

37%

37%

Greens

8.6%

7%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

4%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

5 weeks ago

17/12/13

This week

21/1/14

Liberal National

53.5%

51%

51%

Labor

46.5%

49%

49%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Better or worse under Liberal/National Government

Jan 21, 2014

Q. Under the new Liberal/National Government, do you expect the following will get better or worse?

Total
better

Total worse

Net

A
lot better

A little better

Stay much the same

A little wor-
se

A
lot wor-
se

Don’t know

Better
Sept 13

Wor
-se
Sept 13

Political leadership

33%

38%

-5

15%

18%

25%

12%

26%

3%

42%

31%

Trust in Government

30%

43%

-13

12%

18%

26%

13%

30%

3%

36%

36%

Unemployment

22%

45%

-23

6%

16%

30%

21%

24%

3%

27%

37%

The economy overall

30%

38%

-8

10%

20%

29%

21%

17%

3%

38%

30%

The cost of living

17%

52%

-35

5%

12%

29%

25%

27%

3%

27%

40%

Interest rates

16%

33%

-17

5%

11%

47%

18%

15%

4%

17%

31%

Health services

18%

45%

-27

5%

13%

35%

18%

27%

3%

23%

42%

Job security

17%

49%

-32

5%

12%

32%

21%

28%

3%

22%

43%

Workers rights and conditions

14%

45%

-31

5%

9%

36%

14%

31%

4%

18%

47%

Company profits

40%

18%

+22

13%

27%

38%

8%

10%

4%

47%

14%

The environment

16%

41%

-25

5%

11%

39%

14%

27%

4%

18%

39%

Education and schools

20%

43%

-23

6%

14%

33%

19%

24%

3%

25%

41%

Public services

17%

46%

-29

6%

11%

35%

20%

26%

3%

20%

45%

Benefits for people on Government support – such as pensioners and the unemployed

13%

49%

-36

4%

9%

35%

21%

28%

3%

19%

44%

Your personal financial situation

18%

37%

-19

5%

13%

42%

20%

17%

2%

22%

35%

Except for company profits, respondents believed all issues measured would get worse under the new Liberal/National Government. Expectations on each issue have declined since this question was asked immediately after the election. The largest declines have been for cost of living (net score down 22), the economy overall (-16), political leadership (-16), unemployment (-13) and trust in Government (-13).

Whether asylum seekers are genuine refugees

Jan 21, 2014

Q. As far as you know, are most asylum seekers arriving by in Australia boat genuine refugees or are most of them not genuine refugees?

 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Most of them are genuine refugees

30%

41%

18%

67%

24%

Most of them are not genuine refugees

47%

39%

59%

18%

54%

Don’t know

23%

20%

23%

15%

22%

47% of respondents believe that most asylum seekers arriving by boat are not genuine refugees – 30% believe most are genuine refugees.

Those more likely to think most are not genuine refugees were Liberal/National voters (59%), aged 45+ (55%) and those who had not completed secondary education (58%). Those more likely to think most are genuine refugees were  Greens voters (67%), Labor voters (41%) and those with university education (36%).

Treatment of asylum seekers

Jan 21, 2014

Q. Which of the following comes is closest to your view?

 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees

26%

20%

36%

8%

27%

Asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees

46%

52%

35%

72%

51%

Asylum seekers arriving by boat should not be allowed to stay in Australia but be resettled in another country if they are found to be genuine refugees

15%

13%

19%

4%

17%

All asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia whether they are genuine refugees or not

3%

5%

1%

7%

1%

Don’t know

10%

10%

9%

9%

4%

46% think that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees and 26% think all asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat should be sent back to the country they came from even if they are genuine refugees. Only 15% think asylum seekers arriving by boat should not be allowed to stay in Australia but be resettled in another country if they are found to be genuine refugees.

Those more likely to think they should be sent back to the country they came from were Liberal/National voters (36%), aged 55+ (32%) and those that had not completed secondary education (41%).

Those more likely to think they should be allowed to stay in Australia if they are found to be genuine refugees were Greens voters (72%), Labor voters (52%) and those with university education (55%).

Too soft or too tough on asylum seekers

Jan 21, 2014

Q. Do you think the Federal Liberal/National Government is too tough or too soft on asylum seekers or is it taking the right approach?

 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Oct 10

Jul 12

Too tough

22%

37%

3%

68%

16%

7%

12%

Too soft

25%

23%

23%

14%

41%

63%

60%

Taking the right approach

35%

19%

61%

5%

25%

18%

11%

Don’t know

18%

21%

13%

13%

18%

12%

17%

25% think the Government is too soft on asylum seekers, 22% think they are too tough and 35% think they are taking the right approach.

Since this question was last asked in July 2012, those thinking the Governmemnt are too tough has increased from 12% to 22% – while too soft has declined from 60% to 25% and taking the right approach increased from 11% to 35%.

Those most likely to think they are taking the right approach were Liberal/National voters (61%) and aged 55+ (47%).

Climate change

Jan 21, 2014

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

 

Nov 09

Dec 10

Jun 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

53%

45%

50%

48%

52%

51%

70%

29%

80%

46%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

34%

36%

39%

39%

36%

39%

22%

61%

10%

41%

Don’t know

13%

19%

12%

13%

12%

11%

8%

10%

10%

12%

51% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 39% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is a similar result to when this question was previously asked in October last year.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 55%/32% and those aged 55+ split 43%/48%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 59%/29%.

Extreme temperatures

Jan 21, 2014

Q. Do you think the recent extreme temperatures across Australia are likely or unlikely to be related to climate change?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Likely to be related to climate change

52%

72%

33%

73%

52%

Unlikely to be related to climate change

34%

18%

54%

12%

38%

Don’t know

13%

10%

13%

16%

10%

52% think that the recent extreme temperatures across Australia are likely to be related to climate change – 34% think they are unlikely to be related to climate change.

57% of those with university education believe they are related. 48% of those aged 55+ think they are not related.

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