Party Best at Handling Economy

May 16, 2011

Q. Which party do you think would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you?

Post budget 2010 Post budget 2011 Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
Labor Party 33% 30% 75% 3% 36%
Liberal Party 36% 40% 4% 84% 11%
No difference 20% 22% 17% 10% 46%
Don’t know 11% 9% 4% 3% 7%

30% think Labor the party best to handle the economy (in the interests of you and people like you) and 40% nominated the Liberal Party. This represents a shift of 7% in favour of the Liberal Party since the 2010 budget.

75% of Labor voters nominated Labor and 84% of Coalition voters nominated the Liberal Party. 46% of Greens voters said there was no difference – 36% said Labor and 11% Liberal.

Those with incomes under $600 pw favour Labor 32% to 30% while those on $1,600+ pw favour the Liberals 49% to 29%.

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Processing Asylum Seekers

May 16, 2011

Q.  The Government has announced two possible agreements with Malaysia and Papua New Guinea on asylum seekers. Under these agreements, asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia will be sent to either Malaysia or PNG for processing, and in return Australia will take a fixed number of refugees from Malaysia.

Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
Total support 40% 55% 40% 29%
Total oppose 40% 25% 49% 53%
Strongly support 11% 16% 12% 5%
Support 29% 39% 28% 24%
Oppose 20% 16% 19% 33%
Strongly oppose 20% 9% 30% 20%
Don’t know 19% 20% 12% 17%

Respondents were divided over the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia – 40% support and 40% oppose. Labor voters were more likely to support the plan (55%) while Greens voters were most likely to oppose it (53%).

There were no substantial differences by demographic groups.

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Processing Asylum Seekers

May 16, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
Total support 24% 35% 23% 15%
Total oppose 60% 49% 66% 69%
Strongly support 6% 8% 6% 3%
Support 18% 27% 17% 12%
Oppose 29% 31% 25% 35%
Strongly oppose 31% 18% 41% 34%
Don’t know 16% 16% 11% 16%

Respondents were more likely to oppose the plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia – 24% support and 60% oppose.

Labor voters showed the largest shift in opinion if increased cost to taxpayers was taken into account  – their opposition increased from 25% to 49%.

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Federal Budget Expectations

May 9, 2011

Q. Overall, do you expect the Federal Budget to be good or bad for you personally?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Total good 12% 21% 9% 7% 10% 14% 22% 8% 5%
Total bad 35% 18% 50% 33% 40% 30% 21% 40% 43%
Very good 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% *
Good 10% 19% 7% 7% 9% 12% 19% 7% 5%
Neither good nor bad 44% 54% 36% 53% 43% 44% 45% 42% 46%
Bad 27% 16% 37% 25% 30% 23% 17% 30% 32%
Very bad 8% 2% 13% 8% 10% 7% 4% 10% 11%
Don’t know 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 12% 11% 10% 6%

35% expect the Federal Budget will be bad for them personally and 12% expect it will be good – 44% think it will be neither.

Labor voters are split – 21% good/18% bad while 50% of Liberal/National voters expect it will be bad and only 9% expect it will be good.

Younger voters are more optimistic than older voters – those aged under 35 are split 22% good/21% bad while 43% of over 55’s expect it will be bad and only 5% good. By income, the only major difference from the average is that 45% of people on incomes under $600 pw expect it will be bad for them.

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Federal politics – voting intention

May 9, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,856

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 43% 44% 44%
National 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 38.0 35% 35% 35% 35%
Greens 11.8 11% 10% 9% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 54% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 47% 46% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11%

41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.

86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

29 Mar 5 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May
Total approve 37% 33% 37% 41% 43% 39% 40% 39% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42%
Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 44% 37% 45% 40% 39% 37% 46% 47% 48% 44%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 9% 12% 8% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8%
Approve 32% 25% 29% 32% 31% 31% 34% 30% 35% 30% 31% 29% 34%
Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 24% 24% 25% 25%
Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 22% 16% 23% 18% 18% 15% 22% 23% 23% 19%
Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16% 17% 14%

42% (up 6%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 44% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -12 to -2 over the last 4 weeks.

77% of Coalition voters approve and 13% disapprove.

By gender – men 47% approve/43% disapprove, women 37% approve/45% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

May 9, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 45% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 91% 7% 71% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 35% 34% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 4% 76% 2% 30%
Don’t know 21% 18% 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 5% 17% 27% 23%

43% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 1% on last month’s figures (from +9% to +8%).

Men are split 41%/41% and women favour Julia Gillard 45%/29%.

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