Federal voting intention

Mar 13, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   2 Weeks ago

25/02/19

  4 weeks ago   Election
11/02/19 02/07/16
Liberal 34% 35% 31%
National 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 37%   38% 34% 42.0%
Labor 38%   37% 38% 34.7%
Greens 8% 9% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 6% 7%
Other/Independent 10% 10% 11% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal/National 47%   48% 45% 50.4%
Labor 53%   52% 55% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Scott Morrison

Mar 13, 2019

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2019 Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017
Total approve 38%   70% 22% 37% 15%   35% 35%      38% 33% 35% 33% 37% 36% 36%
Total disapprove 44%   16% 68% 35% 72%   47% 43%      44% 45% 43% 46% 44% 45% 47%
Strongly approve 8% 18% 5% 7% 1% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7%
Approve 29% 53% 17% 31% 13% 27% 27% 30% 25% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29%
Disapprove 22% 13% 27% 29% 29% 25% 21% 24% 23% 21% 23% 23% 23% 25%
Strongly disapprove 23% 3% 41% 7% 43% 21% 22% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 22%
Don’t know 18% 14% 10% 27% 13%   18% 22% 18% 23% 22% 21% 19% 19% 17%

38% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 3%pts from January), and 44% disapproved (down 3%pts from 47%).

70% of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 37% of Greens voters and 22% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 41% approve/46% disapprove and women 34% approve/43% disapprove. Bill Shorten has positive approval among 18-34 year olds, with 44% approving and 32% disapproving. However 58% of those aged over 55 disapprove of his performance as opposition leader, with just 32% approving.

Bill Shorten

Mar 13, 2019

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2019 Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017
Total approve 38%   70% 22% 37% 15%   35% 35%      38% 33% 35% 33% 37% 36% 36%
Total disapprove 44%   16% 68% 35% 72%   47% 43%      44% 45% 43% 46% 44% 45% 47%
Strongly approve 8% 18% 5% 7% 1% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7%
Approve 29% 53% 17% 31% 13% 27% 27% 30% 25% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29%
Disapprove 22% 13% 27% 29% 29% 25% 21% 24% 23% 21% 23% 23% 23% 25%
Strongly disapprove 23% 3% 41% 7% 43% 21% 22% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 22%
Don’t know 18% 14% 10% 27% 13%   18% 22% 18% 23% 22% 21% 19% 19% 17%

38% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 3%pts from January), and 44% disapproved (down 3%pts from 47%).

70% of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 37% of Greens voters and 22% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 41% approve/46% disapprove and women 34% approve/43% disapprove. Bill Shorten has positive approval among 18-34 year olds, with 44% approving and 32% disapproving. However 58% of those aged over 55 disapprove of his performance as opposition leader, with just 32% approving.

Preferred Prime Minster

Mar 13, 2019

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2019 Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Sep 2018
Scott Morrison 44% 14% 82% 23% 54%   42% 40% 41% 42% 39% 39%
Bill Shorten 31% 66% 8% 40% 10%   30% 29% 29% 27% 27% 29%
Don’t know 26% 20% 10% 36% 36%   28% 31% 29% 31% 34% 32%

44% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (up 2%pts from last month), and 31% thought Bill Shorten would be better (up 1%pt). 26% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 82% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister (up 5%pts from January), and 66% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would (up 3%pts from 63% in January).

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (40%) to Scott Morrison (23%).

Both men (47% vs. 29%) and women (41% vs. 32%) would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.

Trust

Mar 13, 2019

Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

  Liberal Party Labor Party Unsure Difference between Liberal and Labor
Border Protection 45% 26% 29% +19
Security and the war on terrorism 42% 26% 32% +16
Management of the economy 44% 29% 27% +15
Controlling interest rates 39% 27% 34% +12
Managing population growth 37% 27% 35% +10
Political leadership 37% 32% 32% +5
Ensuring a fair taxation system 35% 36% 29% -1
Treatment of asylum seekers 33% 34% 33% -1
Ensuring a quality water supply 32% 33% 35% -2
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 36% 39% 25% -3
Standing up to big business 33% 37% 30% -5
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 32% 39% 29% -6
Housing affordability 30% 38% 32% -7
Ensuring a quality education for all children 32% 39% 29% -8
Protecting the environment 28% 36% 36% -8
Addressing climate change 27% 36% 37% -10
Fair wages and workplace conditions 28% 46% 26% -18

More people trust the Liberal party than Labor on Border Protection, Security and the war on terrorism, Management of the economy, Controlling interest rates, Managing population growth and Political leadership.

Policy areas in which there is more trust in Labor include Fair wages and workplace conditions, Addressing climate change, Protecting the environment and Ensuring a quality education for children.

Trust in institutions

Mar 13, 2019

Q. How much trust do you have in the following institutions and organisations?

  NET: Total Trust A lot of trust Some trust A little trust No trust Unsure Sep 2018 Oct 2017 Sep 2016
Federal police 66% 28% 37% 21% 9% 4% 70% 71% 63%
State police 66% 28% 38% 20% 10% 4% 67% 67% 63%
The High Court 58% 23% 35% 23% 13% 6% 61% 61% 57%
The ABC 51% 19% 32% 27% 14% 8% 54% 52% 53%
Charitable organisations 50% 13% 37% 30% 14% 6% 47% 46% 43%
The Reserve Bank 49% 18% 31% 26% 17% 9% 50% 49% 47%
Your local council 43% 10% 33% 33% 18% 6% 42% 38% 36%
Environment groups 43% 14% 29% 28% 21% 7% 42% 42% 39%
The Commonwealth public service 42% 10% 32% 35% 14% 9% 39% 38% 36%
State Parliament 36% 9% 27% 31% 27% 6% 31% 31% 26%
Federal Parliament 35% 10% 25% 29% 29% 8% 28% 30% 26%
Business groups 31% 5% 26% 37% 23% 9% 29% 28% 27%
Trade unions 31% 7% 23% 26% 33% 10% 25% 25% 25%
Religious organisations 27% 7% 20% 24% 42% 7% 28% 26% 26%
Political parties 22% 4% 17% 34% 37% 7% 15% 18% 14%

Trust is highest for the Federal and State police (66%), the High Court (58%). More than half of Australians have trust in the ABC (51%) and half trust charitable organisations (50%).

Trust is lowest for political parties (22%) and religious organisations (27%), Trade Unions (31%) and Business groups (31%).

Border Security

Mar 13, 2019

Since the Parliament passed legislation allowing refugees on Manus Island and Nauru to be evacuated to receive medical attention, the Government has reopened Christmas Island processing centre and warned that people smugglers will restart the boats.

Q. Which of the following statements most closely aligns to your view of the issue?

Total Male Female Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
The Government is genuinely concerned about border protection 52% 54% 50% 31% 81% 29% 53% 52% 47% 56%
The Government is using border protection as a political ploy 48% 46% 50% 69% 19% 71% 47% 48% 53% 44%

Overall, voters are split on the issue of border protection with 52% believing the latest developments represent a genuine concern for protection, and 48% believing it to be a political ploy.

Climate Change

Mar 13, 2019

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

Total Male Female Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+ Oct 2018 Sep 2017 Aug 2016
Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 62% 58% 65% 75% 53% 84% 48% 72% 63% 52% 63% 64% 57%
We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 27% 29% 24% 16% 38% 7% 41% 16% 24% 39% 25% 24% 26%
Don’t know 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 12% 12% 13% 9% 13% 12% 17%

62% (down 1% since October last year) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 27% (up 2%pts from 25%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 72%/16% and those aged 55+ split 52%/39%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 71%/22%.

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