Federal voting intention

Nov 6, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

     Total   2 weeks ago

23/10/18

4 weeks ago 9/10/18   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 33% 36% 34%
National 3% 2% 4%
Total Liberal/National 36%   38% 38%   42.0%
Labor 39%   37% 37%   34.7%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6% 7% 7%
Other/Independent 9% 8% 9% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 46%   47% 47%   50.4%
Labor 54%   53% 53%   49.6%

 

  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

 

 

Scott Morrison

Nov 6, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other   Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Turnbull Aug 2018
Total approve 41%   25% 72% 20% 41%   43% 37% 42%
Total disapprove 37%   58% 12% 63% 40%   28% 31% 42%
Strongly approve 10%   4% 23% 1% 8%   10% 9% 9%
Approve 31%   21% 49% 19% 33%   33% 28% 33%
Disapprove 21%   29% 11% 34% 22%   17% 17% 23%
Strongly disapprove 16%   29% 1% 29% 18%   11% 14% 19%
Don’t know 23%   17% 16% 18% 19%   28% 33% 16%

41% approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister (down 2% from last month) and 37% disapproved (up 9%) – a change in net approval rating from +15 to +4. 23% could not give an opinion.

7% (down 5%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing, compared to 25% of ALP voters, 20% of Greens and 41% of other voters.

By gender, men were 46% approve/39% disapprove and women 34% approve/34% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Nov 6, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader? 

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017
Total Approve 38% 67% 23% 40% 19%   33% 35% 33% 37% 36% 36% 34% 30%
Total Disapprove 44% 17% 67% 43% 71%   45% 43% 46% 44% 45% 47% 43% 49%
Strongly approve 8% 20% 2% 5% 1% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Approve 30% 47% 21% 35% 18% 25% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29% 29% 26%
Disapprove 24% 14% 31% 36% 31% 23% 21% 23% 23% 23% 25% 28% 26%
Strongly disapprove 20% 3% 36% 7% 40% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 22% 15% 23%
Don’t know 18%   15% 9% 18% 10%   23% 22% 21% 19% 19% 17% 23% 22%

38% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 5% from last month), and 44% disapproved (down 1%) – a change in net approval rating from -12 to -6.

67% (up 4%) of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 40% of Greens voters and 23% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 43% approve/46% disapprove and women 34% approve/41% disapprove.

Preferred Prime Minister

Nov 6, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018

Turnbull

Scott Morrison 41%   18% 80% 16% 47%   42% 39% 39% 41%
Bill Shorten 29%   59% 7% 46% 16%   27% 27% 29% 27%
Don’t know 29%   2w3% 13% 37% 37%   31% 34% 32% 31%


41% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (down 1% from last month), and 29% thought Bill Shorten would be better (up 2%). 29% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 80% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister, and 59% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would.

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (46%) to Scott Morrison (16%).

45% of men prefer Scott Morrison and 33% prefer Bill Shorten.

37% of women prefer Scott Morrison and 26% prefer Bill Shorten.

Republic

Nov 6, 2018

Q. Would you support or oppose Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2017 Jan 2018 May 2018
Total support 44%   53% 43% 57% 35%   44% 44% 48%
Total oppose 32%   26% 40% 23% 45%   30% 29% 30%
Strongly support 16%   22% 12% 17% 16%   21% 18% 21%
Support 28%   31% 31% 40% 19%   23% 26% 27%
Oppose 15%   14% 20% 12% 15%   18% 14% 17%
Strongly oppose 17%   12% 20% 11% 30%   12% 15% 13%
Don’t know 24%   22% 17% 20% 20%   26% 26% 22%

 

44% support Australia becoming a republic and 32% oppose. 24% have no opinion.

This is a small drop in support (down 4%) for a republic since this question was asked in May.

Younger respondents were a little more likely to support a republic – 50% of those aged under 35 support a republic compared to 43% of aged 35-54 and 39% of those aged 55+.

Perceptions of Royal Family

Nov 6, 2018

Q. Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following members of the Royal family?

  Total favour-able Total unfavour-able   Very favour-able Favour-able Neither favour-able nor unfavour-able Unfavour-able Very unfavour-able Don’t know
Queen Elizabeth 61% 10%   29% 32% 26% 5% 5% 3%
Prince Charles 33% 30%   9% 24% 35% 16% 14% 3%
Prince William 68% 9%   32% 36% 20% 4% 5% 3%
Prince Harry 70% 9%   40% 30% 19% 4% 5% 2%

 

  Total favour-able   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Queen Elizabeth 61%   63% 71% 47% 59%
Prince Charles 33%   33% 45% 27% 24%
Prince William 68%   69% 76% 57% 69%
Prince Harry 70%   74% 76% 64% 69%

 

 

 

 

Overall, perceptions of Queen Elizabeth, Prince William and Prince Harry were highly favourable. 70% had a favourable opinion of Prince Harry, 68% Prince William and 61% Queen Elizabeth.

However, only 33% had a favourable opinion of Prince Charles – with 30% unfavourable and 35% neither.

Liberal/National voters tended to have a more favourable opinion of these members of the Royal family than other voter groups.

Interest in horse racing

Nov 6, 2018

Q. How would you describe your level of interest in horse racing?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Oct 2011
High interest 8% 8% 10% 5% 5% 6%
Moderate interest 20% 23% 26% 15% 16% 16%
Low interest 26% 28% 26% 27% 22% 33%
No interest 44% 40% 37% 53% 56% 44%
Don’t know 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

 

8% say they have a high interest in horse racing and 20% have a moderate interest. 70% say they have low or no interest. This represents a little more interest than when this question was asked in 2011.

Those with most interest are men (34% high/moderate), aged 18-34 (37%), full-time workers (37%) and those earning more than $2,000 pw (37%).

Statements about horse racing

Nov 6, 2018

Q. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

  Total agree Total  dis-agree   Strongly agree Agree Dis-agree Strongly dis-agree Don’t know
I regularly bet on horse races 19% 78% 7% 12% 21% 57% 3%
I rarely bet on horse races but will be watching the Melbourne Cup and placing a bet 38% 55% 13% 25% 21% 34% 7%
I will watch the Melbourne Cup but will not place a bet 33% 59% 10% 23% 26% 33% 8%
I have never been interested in the Melbourne Cup 33% 62% 15% 18% 34% 28% 5%
I have become less interested in the Melbourne Cup over recent years because of my concerns with gambling 26% 67% 9% 17% 33% 34% 8%
I have become less interested in the Melbourne Cup because of my concerns about animal cruelty 29% 63% 13% 16% 32% 31% 7%

 

  Total agree   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
I regularly bet on horse races 19% 22% 23% 14% 9%
I rarely bet on horse races but will be watching the Melbourne Cup and placing a bet 38% 41% 49% 27% 35%
I will watch the Melbourne Cup but will not place a bet 33% 32% 42% 29% 28%
I have never been interested in the Melbourne Cup 33% 34% 28% 36% 34%
I have become less interested in the Melbourne Cup over recent years because of my concerns with gambling 26% 29% 25% 34% 26%
I have become less interested in the Melbourne Cup because of my concerns about animal cruelty 29% 32% 25% 55% 23%

 

Despite only 19% saying they regularly bet on horse races, 38% say they will be watching the Melbourne Cup and placing a bet while 33% say they will be watching the Cup but not placing a bet.

 

However, 33% agree that they have never been interested in the Melbourne Cup. 26% agree they have become less interested because of concerns about gambling and 29% have become less interested because of concerns about animal cruelty.

 

Liberal/National voters tend to have more interest in the Melbourne Cup than other voter groups.

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