Federal voting intention

Apr 9, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   2 Weeks ago   4 weeks ago   Election
25/03/19 11/03/19 02/07/16
Liberal 36%   35% 34%
National 3%   4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 38%   39% 37% 42.0%
Labor 35%   36% 38% 34.7%
Greens 11%   10% 8% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 5%   7% 7%
Other/Independent 10%   8% 10% 13.1%
2 party preferred    
Liberal/National 48%   48% 47% 50.4%
Labor 52%   52% 53% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Federal Budget Approval

Apr 9, 2019

Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Budget that was handed down on Tuesday 2nd April? 

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
NET: Approve 51% 39% 79% 32% 48%
NET: Disapprove 27% 45% 8% 44% 28%
Strongly approve 11% 5% 23% 2% 8%
Somewhat approve 40% 34% 56% 29% 39%
Somewhat disapprove 18% 28% 7% 28% 17%
Strongly disapprove 9% 16% 1% 16% 11%
Don’t know 21% 16% 13% 24% 25%
  • Just over half (51%) of voters approve of the 2019 Budget, with 27% disapproving and 21% unsure.
  • Approval was highest among Coalition voters (79%), males (57%), those aged over 55 (57%), and those with an annual household income of between $52k and $104k (58%).
  • However approval was lowest among Greens (32%) and Labour voters (39%), and those not in paid employment (38%).
  2019 Budget 2018

Budget

2017

Budget

NET: Approve 51% 44% 41%
NET: Disapprove 27% 28% 33%
Strongly approve 11% 5% 5%
Somewhat approve 40% 39% 36%
Somewhat disapprove 18% 19% 23%
Strongly disapprove 9% 9% 10%
Don’t know 21% 28% 25%
  • The 2019 Budget has been met with higher approval than the previous two Budgets. Approval in 2019 is 7%pts higher than last year (44%) and 10%pts higher than 2017.
  • Those disapproving of the Budget is similar in 2019 and 2018 (27% and 28%) and slightly lower in 2017, when 33% disapproved.

Approval of Budget Announcements

Apr 9, 2019

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following measures contained in the Budget?

  NET: Strongly / Somewhat approve NET: Strongly / Somewhat disapprove Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Unsure
Investing $100 billion in national infrastructure spending over the next ten years 76% 13% 30% 46% 9% 5% 11%
Delivering a tax rebate for workers earning up to $90,000 75% 15% 34% 41% 10% 5% 10%
Running a $7.1 billion Budget surplus in 2019-20 62% 20% 27% 35% 15% 5% 18%
Flattening tax rates from 2024, thereby cutting taxes for the highest income earners 42% 47% 14% 28% 19% 28% 12%
Putting $1.5 billion previously allocated to NDIS disability funding back into the general accounts 37% 50% 14% 23% 23% 27% 13%
  • The announcement to invest $100 billion in infrastructure projects was the most popular of those tested, with just over three-quarters (76%) approving. This was closely followed by 75% of voters approving of a tax rebate for workers earning up to $90,000.
  • More people disapproved than approved of the proposals to flatten tax rates (47% vs. 42%) and the re-allocation of NDIS funding (50% vs. 37%).

Agreement with Budget Statements

Apr 9, 2019

Q. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the Budget?

  NET: Strongly / Somewhat agree NET: Strongly / Somewhat disagree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Unsure
The Government only made its spending pledges because they are in danger of losing the election 57% 36% 28% 29% 23% 13% 7%
This Budget is more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy 54% 38% 25% 29% 24% 14% 8%
Providing adequate funding disability services is more important than returning the Budget to surplus 53% 42% 23% 30% 29% 13% 5%
This Budget will benefit the wealthy more than ordinary Australians 47% 46% 23% 24% 30% 16% 7%
Overall, the Budget is fair and balanced 32% 55% 7% 24% 35% 20% 14%
  • Over half of voters agreed that the spending pledges made by the Government were only made due to insecurities of them winning the next election (57% agreement). Furthermore 54% agreed that the measures announced in the Budget were more about popularity than improving the economy.
  • Less than a third of voters felt the Budget was fair and balanced (32%), with just under half (47%) thinking it will benefit the wealthy more than ordinary Australians.
NET: Agree Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
The Government only made its spending pledges because they are in danger of losing the election 57% 77% 39% 65% 61%
This Budget is more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy 54% 75% 32% 71% 58%
Providing adequate funding disability services is more important than returning the Budget to surplus 53% 68% 40% 58% 51%
This Budget will benefit the wealthy more than ordinary Australians 47% 67% 26% 62% 52%
Overall, the Budget is fair and balanced 32% 18% 57% 14% 24%
  • The majority of Coalition voters believe the Budget is fair and balanced (57%) compared to just 18% of Labor voters, 14% of Greens voters and 24% of those intending to vote for an independent candidate or other minor party.

Rating of budget

Apr 9, 2019

Q. In general, do you think the Budget has been good or bad for you personally?           

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
NET: Good 26% 16% 42% 19% 21%
NET: Bad 20% 30% 4% 27% 33%
Very good 5% 2% 9% 3% 4%
Good 21% 15% 33% 16% 17%
Neither good nor bad 46% 49% 50% 45% 39%
Bad 12% 16% 3% 19% 23%
Very bad 8% 13% 2% 8% 10%
Don’t know 8% 5% 4% 9% 7%
  • 26% of people believe they will personally benefit from the Budget, with 20% expecting to be worse off. 46% thought it would not affect them.
  • Coalition voters were most likely to think the Budget was good for them (42%), with just 16% of Labor voters and 19% of Greens voters expecting the same outcome.
  Total Aged

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged

55+

Lower Household Income

(Up to $51,999 per year)

Mid Household Income ($52,000-$103,999 per year) Higher Household Income (More than $104,000 per year)
NET: Good 26% 29% 28% 20% 18% 27% 40%
NET: Bad 20% 16% 19% 23% 29% 16% 11%
Very good 5% 7% 4% 3% 5% 4% 6%
Good 21% 22% 24% 17% 12% 23% 34%
Neither good nor bad 46% 43% 43% 53% 46% 49% 45%
Bad 12% 10% 12% 13% 16% 10% 8%
Very bad 8% 5% 7% 10% 12% 6% 3%
Don’t know 8% 12% 10% 4% 8% 8% 4%
  • Just 18% of those with a household income of less than $52,000 per year think the Budget was good for them, compared to 40% of those in a household earning over $104,000 per year.
  • 20% of those aged over 55 thought the Budget would be good for them personally, which was less than the 29% of those aged 18-34.

Budget impact on voting intention

Apr 9, 2019

Q. To what extent has the Budget impacted your likelihood to vote for the Coalition at the upcoming Federal election?           

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
It has made me more likely to vote for them 17% 10% 31% 9% 14%
It has not changed my likelihood to vote or not vote for them 61% 52% 65% 64% 58%
It has made me less likely to vote for them 22% 38% 4% 27% 28%
  • 61% said the Budget would have no effect on the way they intend to vote at the next election.
  • The Budget has strengthened the vote within Coalition support, with 31% saying the Budget has made them more likely to vote for the Coalition.
  • 38% of Labor voters are less likely to consider the Coalition as a result of the Budget, with 10% of Labor voters saying they are more likely to consider switching their vote.

Budget Spending Priorities

Apr 9, 2019

Q. Which of the Liberal party, or the Labor party would you trust more to…?

  Liberal Labor Don’t know NET: Difference
Manage the economy in the interests of business 54% 19% 26% +35
Deliver a Budget surplus 48% 22% 31% +26
Manage the economy overall 44% 29% 27% +15
Set the economy up for the long-term 43% 29% 28% +14
Reduce taxes 37% 36% 27% +1
Ensure the taxation system is fair 33% 38% 29% -5
Make multinationals pay their fair share of tax 31% 38% 31% -7
Fund basic services like schools and hospitals 32% 46% 22% -14
Manage the economy in the interests of working people 31% 45% 25% -14
Close tax loopholes for the wealthy 24% 46% 30% -24
  • The Coalition is seen as more trustworthy than Labor to manage the economy in the interests of businesses (54% trust the Coalition to do this, compared to 19% who trust Labor), deliver the Budget surplus (48% vs. 22%), manage the economy overall (44% vs. 29%) and set the economy up for the long-term (43% vs. 23%).
  • Labor were seen as just as trustworthy as the Coalition to reduce taxes (36% vs. 37%).

Energy Price Initiatives

Apr 9, 2019

Q. To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the following measures which have been suggested as ways to keep power prices down?

  NET: Strongly / Somewhat approve NET: Strongly / Somewhat disapprove Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Unsure
End power privatisation, keeping Snowy hydro and other assets in public ownership 74% 9% 43% 31% 7% 2% 17%
Help households to install battery storage and solar panels with $2,000 and low cost finance 73% 14% 35% 37% 10% 5% 13%
Increase share of power generated from renewable energy to 50% 66% 16% 30% 35% 9% 7% 19%
  • 74% approve of the proposal to end power privatisation in order to keep energy costs down. A similar proportion (73%) approve of providing financial help for households to install battery storage and 66% approve of increased renewable power.
NET: Approve Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
End power privatisation, keeping Snowy hydro and other assets in public ownership 74% 81% 75% 72% 78%
Help households to install battery storage and solar panels with $2,000 and low cost finance 73% 81% 70% 83% 72%
Increase share of power generated from renewable energy to 50% 66% 76% 61% 76% 60%
  • Each of the proposals has majority support among voters of all of the major political parties.
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