Federal voting intention

Dec 4, 2018

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – well which party are you currently leaning to?

Total 2 weeks ago

20/11/18

4 weeks ago 6/11/18 Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 34% 34% 33%
National 4% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 38% 37% 36% 42.0%
Labor 39% 35% 39% 34.7%
Greens 10% 11% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6% 7% 6%
Other/Independent 7% 10% 9% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 46% 48% 46% 50.4%
Labor 54% 52% 54% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Scott Morrison

Dec 4, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote Other Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Turnbull Aug 2018
Total approve 42% 25% 77% 21% 36% 41% 43% 37% 42%
Total disapprove 34% 51% 12% 57% 48% 37% 28% 31% 42%
Strongly approve 10% 6% 21% 3% 4% 10% 10% 9% 9%
Approve 32% 19% 55% 18% 32% 31% 33% 28% 33%
Disapprove 19% 26% 10% 27% 26% 21% 17% 17% 23%
Strongly disapprove 15% 25% 2% 30% 21% 16% 11% 14% 19%
Don’t know 24% 24% 11% 22% 16% 23% 28% 33% 16%

42% approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister (up 1%pt from last month) and 34% disapproved (down 3%pts from 37% in November). Just under a quarter of people (24%) could not give an opinion of his leadership of the country.

77% (down 5%) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing, compared to 25% of ALP voters, 21% of Greens and 36% of other voters.

By gender, men were 46% approve/37% disapprove and women 38% approve/32% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Dec 4, 2018

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017 June 2017 Mar 2017
Total approve 35%         62%         18%         46%         15%         38% 33% 35% 33% 37% 36% 36% 34% 30%
Total disapprove 43%         15%         73%         31%         75%         44% 45% 43% 46% 44% 45% 47% 43% 49%
Strongly approve 8%         19%         2%         5%         2%         8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Approve 27%         43%         16%         41%         13%         30% 25% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29% 29% 26%
Disapprove 21%         11%         30%         25%         35%         24% 23% 21% 23% 23% 23% 25% 28% 26%
Strongly disapprove 22%         3%         43%         6%         40%         20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 22% 15% 23%
Don’t know 22%         24%         9%         23%         10%         18% 23% 22% 21% 19% 19% 17% 23% 22%

35% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (down 3%pts from last month), and 43% disapproved (down 1%).

62% of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 46% of Greens voters and 18% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 41% approve/44% disapprove and women 28% approve/43% disapprove. 15% of men and 29% of women didn’t give a rating of Bill Shorten’s performance.

Preferred Prime Minister

Dec 4, 2018

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Sep 2018 Aug 2018

Turnbull

Scott Morrison 40% 17% 77% 19% 44% 41% 42% 39% 39% 41%
Bill Shorten 29% 56% 7% 45% 18% 29% 27% 27% 29% 27%
Don’t know 31% 27% 15% 37% 39% 29% 31% 34% 32% 31%

40% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (down 1%pt from last month), and 29% thought Bill Shorten would be better (no change). 31% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 77% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister (down 3%pts from November), and 56% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would (down 3%pts from 59% in November).

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (45%) to Scott Morrison (19%).

43% of men prefer Scott Morrison and 31% prefer Bill Shorten.

36% of women prefer Scott Morrison and 26% prefer Bill Shorten.

Personal happiness

Dec 4, 2018

Q. Thinking about your own personal situation, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Total agree Total disagree Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Jun 2017 Agree
I am happy in my personal/family life 73%         10%         26%         47%         17%         7%         2%         79%
I am happy in my life overall 70%         10%         21%         49%         19%         7%         3%         74%
I am happy in my social life 66%         12%         19%         47%         22%         10%         2%         71%
I am happy in my spiritual life 56%         7%         18%         39%         36%         5%         2%         62%
I am happy in my work life 42%         17%         10%         32%         41%         12%         5%         52%

All but one statement (I am happy in my work life) received majority agreement. The area in which happiness was the highest was personal/family life, in which 73% were happy, while the area in which happiness was lowest overall was work life, in which 42% were happy.

People in WA were least happy with their work life (with 15% strongly disagreeing with the statement) and their lives overall (10% strongly disagreeing with statement).

All areas have seen a decline in happiness since 2017, with the proportion of people agreeing they are happy with their work life declining by 10%pts (from 52%) and spiritual life declining 6%pts.

Additional breakdowns of this question are on the following page.

Additional table

This table provides a cross-tabulation of the proportion who “very strongly” agreed with each statement across a number of demographics.

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Green Vote Other Male Female Earn <$78k Earn >$78k 18-34 35-54 55+
I am happy in my personal/family life 26%         25%         32%         20%         25%         26%         27%         21% 32% 25% 23% 32%
I am happy in my social life 19% 19%         22%         12%         22%         20%         18%         16% 22% 17% 16% 25%
I am happy in my work life 10% 9%         14% 4%         9%         10%         9%         7% 14% 9% 9% 10%
I am happy in my spiritual life 18% 15%         21%         17%         21%         17%         18%         16% 20% 16% 17% 21%
I am happy in my life overall 21% 21%         23%         17%         24%         22%         21%         18% 25% 19% 17% 30%

Liberal voters are more likely to strongly agree (14%) that they are happy in their work life, than voters of other parties.

Those with a household income of more than $78,000 are more likely to be happy in their life overall (25%), their personal/family life (32%), their social life (22%) and their work life (14%).

People aged 55 and over are more likely to strongly agree that they are happy with their life overall than those aged under 55 (30% vs. 19%).

Negative gearing – impact on house prices

Dec 4, 2018

Q. Property investors can receive tax deductions if the cost of buying and maintaining their investment properties is more than the revenue they receive from them (called negative gearing). Do you think restricting negative gearing to new homes will increase house prices, lower house prices or make no difference?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Lower house prices 24% 26% 27% 29% 17%
Increase house prices 21% 18% 24% 22% 22%
Make no difference 27% 29% 26% 18% 37%
Don’t know  29% 27% 23% 30% 24%

Just under a quarter of people believe restricting negative gearing would lower house prices (24%). 21% believe it would lead to increased house prices and 27% think it would make no difference.

People aged 65 and over are most likely to believe changing the laws regarding negative gearing would not impact house prices (35%).

Negative gearing – impact on rents

Dec 4, 2018

Q. And do you think restricting negative gearing to new homes will increase rents, lower rents or make no difference?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other
Lower rents 14% 20% 11% 12% 10%
Increase rents 37% 29% 49% 31% 41%
Make no difference 24% 28% 19% 26% 30%
Don’t know  26% 24% 21% 30% 18%

Labor voters are more likely than other voters to believe restricting negative gearing will lower rents (20%), whereas Coalition voters are more likely than others to this it will increase rents (49%).

Doing enough to address climate change

Dec 4, 2018

Q. As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Aug 2015 Mar 2016 Aug 2016 Dec 2016 Sep 2017 Oct 2018
Doing enough 24% 23% 32% 10% 24% 24% 21% 22% 22% 20% 23%
Not doing enough 53% 63% 42% 82% 53% 53% 57% 52% 49% 56% 56%
Doing too much 9% 3% 14% 1% 9% 7% 8% 8% 11% 8% 7%
Don’t know 14% 11% 12% 7% 14% 16% 13% 18% 18% 16% 13%

Just over half (53%) think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change. This has not statistically changed from October 2018.

Those people most likely to think Australia was not doing enough include women (58%), Greens voters (82%) and Labor voters (63%).

Pages:1234567...456»