Federal voting intention

Mar 26, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   2 Weeks ago   4 weeks ago   Election
11/03/19 25/02/19 02/07/16
Liberal 35% 34% 35%
National 4% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 39%   37% 38% 42.0%
Labor 36%   38% 37% 34.7%
Greens 10% 8% 9% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 7% 6%
Other/Independent 8% 10% 10% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal/National 48%   47% 48% 50.4%
Labor 52%   53% 52% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Federal Budget Expectations

Mar 26, 2019

Q. The Federal Budget will be announced on Tuesday 2nd April.

In general, do you expect the Federal Budget will be good or bad for the following?

  NET: Very Good / Good Neither good nor bad NET: Very bad / Bad Don’t know
People who are well off 58% 23% 9% 10%
Australian business 50% 26% 13% 10%
The economy overall 35% 33% 24% 9%
Australian families 31% 30% 30% 9%
Average working people 27% 32% 33% 9%
Younger Australians 26% 32% 31% 10%
Older Australians 25% 28% 38% 9%
People of lower incomes 24% 25% 42% 10%
You personally 19% 37% 34% 9%
  • Majority of people think the upcoming budget will be good or Very good for those who are well off (58%) and half think it will benefit Australian businesses (50%).
  • People on lower incomes (42%) and older Australians (38%) are most expected to be worse off following the announcement
  • Just 19% believe they will personally benefit from the budget, and 34% think it will be bad/very bad for them.

Budget Spending Priorities

Mar 26, 2019

Q. And do you think the Government should increase, decrease or keep spending the same for…?

  Increase spending Keep spending the same Decrease spending Don’t know
Healthcare 67% 24% 3% 6%
Education 59% 30% 5% 7%
Age pensions 59% 29% 5% 7%
More affordable housing 53% 33% 7% 7%
Public transport infrastructure 48% 39% 6% 7%
Renewable energy 48% 32% 12% 8%
Environmental protection 43% 39% 10% 8%
Anti-terrorism 42% 42% 8% 9%
Building highways and roads 40% 44% 8% 8%
Providing tax reductions for individuals 40% 40% 10% 9%
Assistance to the unemployed 35% 41% 15% 9%
Providing tax reductions for corporations 12% 32% 46% 10%
Foreign Aid 11% 31% 49% 9%
  • The most popular areas for the Government to increase spending are Healthcare (67%), Education (59%) and Aged Care (59%).
  • There is greatest support for a decrease in spending to tax cuts for corporations (46%) and foreign aid (49%).
INCREASE

SPENDING

Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Healthcare 67% 69% 66% 69% 72%
Education 59% 64% 56% 63% 55%
Age pensions 59% 60% 58% 52% 70%
More affordable housing 53% 56% 48% 57% 54%
Public transport infrastructure 48% 50% 50% 49% 46%
Renewable energy 48% 55% 39% 72% 41%
Environmental protection 43% 51% 32% 66% 39%
Anti-terrorism 42% 42% 49% 21% 46%
Building highways and roads 40% 37% 47% 28% 42%
Providing tax reductions for individuals 40% 40% 41% 35% 44%
Assistance to the unemployed 35% 44% 27% 36% 35%
Providing tax reductions for corporations 12% 11% 16% 9% 10%
Foreign Aid 11% 13% 10% 18% 7%
  • The top areas to increase spending for Coalition voters were healthcare (66%), Age pensions (58%) and Education (56%). Coalition voters were less likely than supporters of other parties to support increasing spending for renewable energy (39%), environmental protection (32%) and providing assistance to the unemployed (27%).

What people worry about

Mar 26, 2019

Q. To what extent are you concerned about the following issues?

I worry about this all the time I often worry about this I sometimes worry about this It’s not something I worry about
Health of myself and family 27% 35% 31% 7%
My ability to pay for basics 27% 29% 25% 19%
Impact of climate change 21% 30% 28% 21%
Crime in my community 19% 31% 35% 16%
Threat of terrorism 19% 26% 36% 19%
My job security 16% 22% 20% 41%
  • Family health (27%) and affording the basics (27%) are the things worrying Australians most frequently.
  • Job security is less of a concern, with 41% saying this is not something they worry about.
I WORRY ABOUT THIS ALL THE TIME Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Health of myself and family 27% 31% 19% 29% 38%
My ability to pay for basics 27% 29% 19% 29% 37%
Impact of climate change 21% 24% 14% 42% 19%
Crime in my community 19% 18% 17% 10% 29%
Threat of terrorism 19% 18% 22% 6% 26%
My job security 16% 17% 13% 17% 18%
  • 31% of Labor voters say they worry about their, and their family’s health all the time, and 21% say they always worry about being able to pay for the basics.
  • Coalition voters say they worry about the threat of terrorism all the time (22%), this is more than any other concern.
I WORRY ABOUT THIS ALL THE TIME Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
Health of myself and family 27% 24% 30% 27% 29% 26%
My ability to pay for basics 27% 24% 29% 29% 29% 22%
Impact of climate change 21% 21% 21% 27% 23% 14%
Crime in my community 19% 18% 19% 15% 21% 20%
Threat of terrorism 19% 17% 20% 19% 17% 19%
My job security 16% 17% 15% 22% 20% 8%

 

Christchurch Terror Attacks

Mar 26, 2019

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the Mosque shooting in New Zealand?

  NET: Strongly / Somewhat agree NET: Strongly / Somewhat disagree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Unsure
Social media platforms should be forced to ensure violent material (such as the recording of the attack) is not broadcast 69% 11% 52% 17% 14% 6% 5% 6%
White extremism is every bit as dangerous as Muslim fundamentalism 63% 14% 44% 19% 17% 7% 6% 6%
Television networks and newspapers that have provided platforms (e.g. on lifestyle shows, breakfast TV or in opinion pieces) for people with extreme and racist views bear some responsibility for the attack 49% 19% 19% 30% 24% 11% 8% 8%
Politicians from Australia’s major political parties have deliberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment as a way of getting votes 42% 23% 20% 22% 26% 11% 11% 9%
It was an isolated act of evil and has nothing to do with broader political debates 40% 31% 18% 22% 21% 18% 12% 8%
In my everyday life, I regularly hear people saying things that are racist and/or Islamophobic 37% 33% 12% 25% 25% 20% 13% 5%

 

 NET: Strongly / Somewhat agree Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
Social media platforms should be forced to ensure violent material (such as the recording of the attack) is not broadcast 69% 64% 74% 61% 68% 76%
White extremism is every bit as dangerous as Muslim fundamentalism 63% 61% 66% 55% 60% 73%
Television networks and newspapers that have provided platforms (e.g. on lifestyle shows, breakfast TV or in opinion pieces) for people with extreme and racist views bear some responsibility for the attack 49% 47% 50% 50% 45% 50%
Politicians from Australia’s major political parties have deliberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment as a way of getting votes 42% 45% 39% 49% 41% 37%
It was an isolated act of evil and has nothing to do with broader political debates 40% 44% 37% 37% 39% 44%
In my everyday life, I regularly hear people saying things that are racist and/or Islamophobic 37% 41% 34% 42% 40% 31%

 

 NET: Strongly / Somewhat agree Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Social media platforms should be forced to ensure violent material (such as the recording of the attack) is not broadcast 69% 71% 69% 74% 67%
White extremism is every bit as dangerous as Muslim fundamentalism 63% 67% 64% 72% 57%
Television networks and newspapers that have provided platforms (e.g. on lifestyle shows, breakfast TV or in opinion pieces) for people with extreme and racist views bear some responsibility for the attack 49% 51% 45% 66% 48%
Politicians from Australia’s major political parties have deliberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment as a way of getting votes 42% 50% 31% 65% 43%
It was an isolated act of evil and has nothing to do with broader political debates 40% 34% 50% 29% 46%
In my everyday life, I regularly hear people saying things that are racist and/or Islamophobic 37% 38% 38% 46% 38%
  • 69% of Australians agree that ‘Social media platforms should be forced to ensure violent material (such as the recording of the attack) is not broadcast’. Women (74%), those over the age of 55 (76%) and Greens voters (74%) are most likely to agree with this statement.
  • 37% agree that they hear people saying things that are racist and/or or Islamophobic regularly.
  • 45% agree that ‘Politicians from Australia’s major political parties have deliberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment as a way of getting votes’. Agreement was highest among Labor (50%) and Greens (65%) voters. Those least likely to agree with the statement were Coalition voters (31%) and One nation voters (36%).

Perceptions of Domestic and International Leaders

Mar 26, 2019

Q. Do you hold favourable or unfavourable views of the following world leaders?

 Hold Favourable View Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern 71% 69% 72% 65% 66% 80%
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison 41% 45% 37% 36% 32% 55%
German Chancellor Angela Merkel 36% 42% 31% 32% 30% 46%
UK Prime Minister Theresa May 31% 33% 29% 26% 26% 41%
US President Donald Trump 19% 25% 14% 17% 20% 21%

Donald Trump is seen as more favourable by men than women (25% and 14%).

Older Australians are more favourable to all the leaders compared to those aged 18-34 and 35-54.

Federal voting intention

Mar 13, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   2 Weeks ago

25/02/19

  4 weeks ago   Election
11/02/19 02/07/16
Liberal 34% 35% 31%
National 3% 3% 3%
Total Liberal/National 37%   38% 34% 42.0%
Labor 38%   37% 38% 34.7%
Greens 8% 9% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 6% 7%
Other/Independent 10% 10% 11% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal/National 47%   48% 45% 50.4%
Labor 53%   52% 55% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Scott Morrison

Mar 13, 2019

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Jan 2019 Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018 Dec 2017 Sep 2017
Total approve 38%   70% 22% 37% 15%   35% 35%      38% 33% 35% 33% 37% 36% 36%
Total disapprove 44%   16% 68% 35% 72%   47% 43%      44% 45% 43% 46% 44% 45% 47%
Strongly approve 8% 18% 5% 7% 1% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 7%
Approve 29% 53% 17% 31% 13% 27% 27% 30% 25% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29%
Disapprove 22% 13% 27% 29% 29% 25% 21% 24% 23% 21% 23% 23% 23% 25%
Strongly disapprove 23% 3% 41% 7% 43% 21% 22% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 22%
Don’t know 18% 14% 10% 27% 13%   18% 22% 18% 23% 22% 21% 19% 19% 17%

38% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (up 3%pts from January), and 44% disapproved (down 3%pts from 47%).

70% of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 37% of Greens voters and 22% of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 41% approve/46% disapprove and women 34% approve/43% disapprove. Bill Shorten has positive approval among 18-34 year olds, with 44% approving and 32% disapproving. However 58% of those aged over 55 disapprove of his performance as opposition leader, with just 32% approving.

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