Previous Voting Practice

May 7, 2019

Q. Which of the following statements best describes how you have voted in previous Federal elections? 

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
I always vote for a major party (either Labor or Liberal/National) 44% 58% 59% 5% 15%
I usually vote for the major parties, but sometimes shift to minor party or independent 36% 35% 36% 36% 37%
I usually vote for a minor party or independent but sometimes vote for a major party 13% 6% 3% 40% 30%
I always vote for a minor party or independent 7% 2% 1% 20% 18%
  • 44% of people said they always voted for a major party (either Labor or Liberal/Nationals) and a further 36% say they usually vote for one of these parties.
  • Those aged over 55 years are most likely to always vote for a major party (52%).
  • 41% of those intending to vote Green at the next election said they always, or usually voted for a major party, 52% of people intending to vote for a minor party (One Nation, UAP etc.) or an independent candidate said they always/usually voted for a major party.

Federal voting intention

Apr 30, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   3 Weeks ago   5 weeks ago   Election
08/04/19 25/03/19 02/07/16
Liberal 36%   36% 35%
National 4%   3% 4%
Total Liberal/National 39%   38% 39% 42.0%
Labor 37%   35% 36% 34.7%
Greens 9%   11% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6%   5% 7%
Other/Independent 9%   10% 8% 13.1%
2 party preferred    
Liberal/National 49%   48% 48% 50.4%
Labor 51%   52% 52% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Expected winner

Apr 30, 2019

Q. Which party do you expect will win the 2019 Federal election and form Government?       

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Labor 59% 95% 26% 73% 47%
Liberal/National 41% 5% 74% 27% 53%
  • 59% of voters believe Labor will be victorious over the Liberal/National coalition in the 2019 Federal election. Expectations among supporters of the Labor party are high, with 95% believe Labour will win. The majority of Coalition voters (74%) and those intending to vote for another party/independent candidate (53%) expect the Coalition to form Government following the election.
  • A majority of both men (60%) and women (58%) expect Labor to win the election.
  • Over half of each of the age ranges 18-34 (61%), 35-54 (61%) and 55+ (56%) also expect Labour to form the next Government.

2019 election issues

Apr 30, 2019

Q. How important are each of the following issues in deciding how you will vote in the next election? 10 – Very Important

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Healthcare 40% 49% 31% 33% 41%
National security and terrorism 35% 31% 40% 21% 38%
Management of the economy 33% 32% 37% 24% 33%
Jobs 31% 38% 25% 20% 35%
Education 31% 39% 22% 32% 28%
Tax 28% 30% 25% 20% 32%
Environment 26% 31% 15% 50% 24%
Climate change 26% 31% 16% 50% 19%
Immigration 25% 25% 25% 18% 34%
Housing 24% 30% 16% 22% 25%
Transport and infrastructure 22% 24% 20% 15% 23%
  • On a 0-10 importance scale, 40% of people said Healthcare was an important issue (giving highest score of 10 out of 10). This was rated as an important issue by just under half of Labor voters (49%) and by the highest proportion of those voting for a minor party or independent (41%).
  • 35% thought National security and terrorism was a very important election issue. This result was highest among Coalition voters (40%), where it was the top issue, and those voting for another party or independent (38%).
  • The issues given a ‘Very important’ rating by Greens voters were Climate change (50%) and the Environment (50%).

Election engagement

Apr 30, 2019

Q. How much attention have you been paying to the news, advertising and updates from the Federal Election?   

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Have not been paying any attention 19% 14% 12% 15% 19%
Have been paying little attention 29% 30% 29% 31% 27%
Have been paying some attention 33% 35% 33% 37% 40%
Have been paying a lot of attention 20% 21% 27% 17% 14%

 

  Total Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Have not been paying any attention 19% 26% 19% 11%
Have been paying little attention 29% 34% 31% 21%
Have been paying some attention 33% 26% 35% 38%
Have been paying a lot of attention 20% 14% 14% 29%
  • Just under one in five people (19%) say they have not been paying any attention to the election. This was highest among those aged 18-34 (26%).
  • Engagement in the election was lower among those intending to vote for a minor or independent candidate. 19% of these voters say they haven’t been paying any attention the election, and just 14% say they have been paying a lot of attention.
  • Older voters are so far most engaged with the election, with 29% saying they have been paying a lot of attention.
  • Men were more likely than women to say they had been paying a lot of attention to the election (25% to 14%).

News stories

Apr 30, 2019

 Q. What news stories about the campaign have you noticed?

  • The preference agreement between the Liberals and UAP has been dominating the news this week. ‘Clive Palmer’, ‘United Australia Party’ and ‘Preferences’ all received a notable number of mentions.
  • ‘Tax’ was one of the most mentioned issued participants recall seeing in the news this week, along with continuing topics relating to the Budget announcement made earlier in the month.
  • ‘Healthcare’ and ‘Healthcare funding’ have been one of the most noticed policy topics over the past week.

Preferred Prime Minister

Apr 30, 2019

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018
Scott Morrison 40%   10% 78% 25% 44%   44% 42% 40% 41% 42% 39%
Bill Shorten 31%   62% 10% 38% 15%   31% 30% 29% 29% 27% 27%
Don’t know 29%   27% 12% 37% 40%   26% 28% 31% 29% 31% 34%
  • 40% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (down 4%pts from last month), and 31% thought Bill Shorten would be better (no change from March). 29% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.
  • The results were split by party allegiance, with 78% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister (down 4%pts from March), and 62% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would (down 4%pts from 63% in March).
  • Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (38%) to Scott Morrison (25%).
  • Both men (47% to 32%) and women (33% to 30%) would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.

Perceptions of leaders

Apr 30, 2019

Q. Which party leader would you…?

  Scott Morrison Bill Shorten Unsure
Ask their advice about investing money 37% 21% 42%
Most trust to give your children advice about the future 31% 25% 45%
Most like to go to the pub for a beer with 31% 29% 41%
Most like to go to the footy with 31% 25% 44%
Most like to have over for dinner 30% 28% 42%
Prefer to have negotiate your next pay rise 29% 37% 34%
Think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded 29% 28% 43%
Think would be more likely to lend you $100 if you needed it 26% 31% 43%
Most like to have babysit your children 25% 21% 54%
Most trust to cook a good meal 25% 22% 53%
Most like to go on holiday with 24% 21% 55%
Ask their advice about a personal issue 24% 24% 52%
Most trust to look after your pet 24% 24% 52%
Ask to help you with home renovations 22% 24% 54%

Unsure removed

  Scott Morrison Bill Shorten Difference
Ask their advice about investing money 64% 36% +28
Most like to go to the footy with 56% 44% +12
Most trust to give your children advice about the future 55% 45% +10
Most like to have babysit your children 54% 46% +8
Most like to go on holiday with 53% 47% +6
Most like to have over for dinner 52% 48% +4
Most like to go to the pub for a beer with 52% 48% +4
Most trust to cook a good meal 52% 48% +4
Most trust to look after your pet 50% 50% 0
Ask their advice about a personal issue 50% 50% 0
Think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded 50% 50% 0
Ask to help you with home renovations 48% 52% -4
Think would be more likely to lend you $100 if you needed it 46% 54% -8
Prefer to have negotiate your next pay rise 44% 56% -12
  • Comparing the two party leaders, voters would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten to ask about investing money (64% to 36%), go to the footy with (56% to 44%) and give their children advice about the future (55% to 45%).
  • Bill Shorten was more trusted to negotiate a pay rise (56% to 44%).
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