Economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

1 Dec 08 15 Jun 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10 29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10
Total better 21% 43% 66% 53% 54% 33%
Total worse 61% 37% 15% 19% 19% 31%
Get a lot better 2% 5% 8% 9% 9% 5%
Get a little better 19% 38% 58% 44% 45% 28%
Get a little worse 45% 28% 11% 14% 13% 23%
Get a lot worse 16% 9% 4% 5% 6% 8%
Stay much the same 13% 17% 15% 24% 22% 30%
No opinion 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7%

Respondents were divided over whether the economy will get better or worse over the next 12 months – 33% (down 21%) think it will get better and 31% (up 12%) worse. 30% (up 8%) think it will stay much the same.

This is a considerable negative shift from the results over the last 12 months.  Men (38% better/29% worse) were somewhat more optimistic than women (28%/32%) Comments »

Personal financial situation

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10
Total better 40% 29%
Total worse 23% 31%
Get a lot better 8% 5%
Get a little better 32% 24%
Get a little worse 17% 21%
Get a lot worse 6% 10%
Stay much the same 33% 37%
No opinion 4% 4%

Respondents were similarly divided over whether their personal financial situation will get better or worse over the next 12 months – 29% (down 11%) think it will get better and 31% (up 8%) worse. 37% (up 4%) think it will stay much the same. Although this represents a significant negative shift, it is not as big a shift as the overall economic outlook from the previous question.

Men (32% better/25% worse) were more optimistic than women (25%/35%). Optimism was also higher for upper income groups  – those earning over $1,600 pw split 42% better/23% worse while those earning under $1,000 pw split 18% better/36% worse. Comments »

Job security

Jun 28, 2010

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

16 Feb 09 27 Apr 09 8 Jun 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10 29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10
Total concerned 62% 67% 52% 49% 45% 39% 43%
Very concerned 22% 24% 13% 14% 12% 10% 9%
Somewhat concerned 40% 43% 39% 35% 33% 29% 34%
Not at all concerned 29% 23% 35% 40% 40% 45% 38%
Don’t know 4% 5% 6% 6% 8% 7% 12%
No employees in the immediate family 5% 5% 8% 5% 8% 9% 7%

43% were very or somewhat concerned that someone in their family might lose their job in the next year. This was 4% higher than the March result but lower than previous results over the last 12 months. There were no substantial differences by income. Comments »

Personally Better Off

Jun 28, 2010

Q. Thinking about your personal financial situation, do you agree or disagree with the statement  “The economy may be doing well but I am not any better off”?

Total agree 69%
Total disagree 22%
Strongly agree 24%
Agree 45%
Disagree 20%
Strongly disagree 2%
Don’t know 8%

69% agreed with the statement “the economy may be doing well but I am not any better off” and 22% disagreed.

Those most likely to agree were part-time workers (79%), aged 45+ (76%) and those earning less than $600 pw (77%). There were no substantial differences by voting intention. Comments »

The Doddcast: Canberra Report 28th June

Jun 28, 2010

“He must be sacked”.

“We must send a group of former factions to see him and tell him that if he doesn’t change the game plan – then he has to go.”

“This team is meant to embody the spirit of our nation and the performance we’ve put in is not only unpopular but it’s a disgrace to our whole nation,” he said.

“You can’t blame the players, they didn’t have a plan that they believed in or even understood what it was.

“PM doesn’t understand us, he doesn’t understand our fighting spirit. Comments »

#spill paves the way for a more involved election with 24hr news and social media.

Jun 27, 2010

7pm hungry.

I, like many other ‘Gen Y-can’t-I-do-everything-on-my-iPhone?’, first heard about the political events of last week while browsing my iphone for twitter, news feeds and facebook status updates, in front of the slower to react television on Wednesday night.

And feed we did.

As soon as the door shut on the then Prime Minister’s office, social networks were abuzz with the thought of a coup, thousands of tweeps all across Australia were glued to their 140 character evening dinner, with each and all sharing their pointed opinion on the ensuing #spill.

24hr news was being fed from all of this online action, with sky news reporters constantly taking advice and proclaiming news from their iphone instant news features, SMS and Twitter.

Pass the buttered corn. Comments »

Essential: the polling slide that evicted Rudd from the Lodge

Jun 25, 2010

First Published on Crikey Thursday 24th June

Essential Reports polls taken over the last 2 years show how Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have declined since he almost unprecedented figures he achieved following his election through to early last year. Up to March last year approval hovered around the high 60% level into the low 70%.  Is net approval (i.e. approve minus disapprove) was around the mid 40% level.

Throughout 2009 and early 2010 his approval went into steady decline but still remained in positive territory. At the end of March he recorded 53% approval and 36% disapproval. However, the most dramatic shift occurred in April and May when his approval first entered negative territory with 41% approve and 47% disapprove. The decline appeared to be accelerating.

Some of the reasons for this sudden decline can be found in how the personal perceptions of Kevin Rudd changed from 2009 to May this year.  His attribute ratings showed significant falls in the percentage of people who considered him to be a capable leader (72% to 55%), good in a crisis (60%-44%) and trustworthy (51%-41%). Meanwhile his ratings for “out of touch with ordinary people” increased from 41% to 55%. It indicates a significant loss of confidence in his performance as Prime Minister.

Last week’s Essential Report showed only weak support for Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party to the next election – 40% thought the Labor Party would have better chance of winning the election if they changed leader and 37% thought Kevin Rudd was the best person to lead the labor Party. Even among Labor voters only 66% supported Kevin Rudd as leader and 23% though they should change. Comments »

Online Research is Getting a Bum Wrap

Jun 22, 2010

When it comes to research, online polling has an image problem. Federal Labor minister Craig Emerson was at it again this morning, saying the Essential Report was not a representative sample.

Part of the problem with online polling, is that it is often confused with the self-selecting web-based surveys that many news sites run – these, of course, are not scientific.

But evidence is emerging that professionally sourced and managed online panels are every bit as representative and accurate as the traditional method of telephone polling.

It has been estimated that more than 50% of all market and social research in Australia is conducted on line – it is relied on by major companies (and Governments!!) to make key decisions about their products, services, marketing. If it wasn’t reliable and valid they would be putting their businesses at considerable risk. Comments »

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