Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 18, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

*1915 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last report

21 Dec 09

Liberal 35%    
National 3%    
Total Lib/Nat 38% 44% +1%
Labor 45% 56% -1%
Greens 8%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 7%    

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data collected on the weeks of the 15 – 20 December 2009 and the 12 – 18 January 2010.   Comments »

Approval of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd

Jan 18, 2010

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

  12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10
Strongly approve 14% 17% 21% 14% 14% 13% 15% 14% 9% 10% 11%
Approve 52% 50% 50% 48% 48% 47% 51% 47% 47% 47% 44%
Disapprove 16% 15% 14% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19% 20% 20% 19%
Strongly disapprove 6% 8% 7% 11% 9% 10% 6% 13% 15% 12% 14%
Don’t know 11% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 11% 8% 10% 10% 12%
Total approve 66% 67% 71% 62% 62% 60% 66% 61% 56% 57% 55%
Total disapprove 22% 23% 21% 29% 29% 27% 23% 32% 35% 32% 33%

55% of people surveyed approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister, 33% disapprove.  His approval rating has seen a slight decrease since we last asked this question in December (-2%) and his disapproval rating has increased by one percent.  Rudd’s approval rating is the lowest it has been over the year that we have been tracking this question. 

Perception of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to approve of the job he is doing (91%), while Coalition voters were more likely to disapprove (74%).  20% of Coalition voters and 73% of Green voters approve of the job Rudd is doing as Prime Minister. Comments »

Approval of the Opposition Leader

Jan 18, 2010

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
  12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10
Strongly approve 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 7% 5%
Approve 37% 29% 25% 28% 20% 20% 24% 26% 23% 27% 32%
Disapprove 21% 26% 31% 28% 31% 30% 35% 30% 33% 18% 20%
Strongly disapprove 9% 17% 17% 21% 26% 28% 18% 20% 22% 18% 17%
Don’t know 29% 24% 24% 21% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19% 31% 26%
Total approve 41% 32% 28% 30% 24% 22% 27% 29% 25% 34% 37%
Total disapprove 30% 43% 48% 49% 57% 58% 53% 50% 55% 36% 37%

 37% of people approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and a further 37% disapprove.  Abbott’s approval rating has increased slightly since we last asked this question in December (+3%) and his disapproval rating has increased by one percent. 

Perception of the job Abbott is doing as Leader of the Opposition followed party lines – Coalition voters were more likely to approve (70%), while Labor voters were more likely to disapprove (50%), as were Green voters (70%).  26% of Labor voters approve of the job Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader. Comments »

Economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months

Jan 18, 2010

 Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

  1 Dec 08 23 Feb 09 18 May 09 15 Jun 09 6 Jul 09 21 Aug 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10
Total better 21% 19% 25% 43% 50% 55% 66% 53%
Total worse 61% 65% 56% 37% 31% 23% 15% 19%
Get a lot better 2% 2% 2% 5% 7% 9% 8% 9%
Get a little better 19% 17% 23% 38% 43% 46% 58% 44%
Get a little worse 45% 42% 37% 28% 23% 17% 11% 14%
Get a lot worse 16% 23% 19% 9% 8% 6% 4% 5%
Stay much the same 13% 12% 13% 17% 15% 18% 15% 24%
No opinion 5% 4% 5% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4%

 Just over half (53%) of those surveyed think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get better, 19% think they will get worse, and 24% think conditions will get much the same. 

 The most significant differences since we last asked this question in October 2009 are in terms of a decrease in the number of people that think conditions will get better (-13%), and an increase in the number that think economic conditions will stay the same (+9%).   

 Males were more likely than females to think economic conditions will get better over the next 12 months (59% v 47%). 

 Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think conditions will get better (65% v 47%).  Coalition voters were more likely to think conditions will get worse (28%). 

 People aged 18 – 24 were more likely than those aged 55 years and over to think that economic conditions will improve over the next 12 months (61% v 52%). Comments »

Job security

Jan 18, 2010

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

  16 Feb 09 27 Apr 09 8 Jun 09 6 Jul 09 31 Aug 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10
Total concerned 62% 67% 52% 56% 53% 49% 45%
Very concerned 22% 24% 13% 15% 18% 14% 12%
Somewhat concerned 40% 43% 39% 41% 35% 35% 33%
Not at all concerned 29% 23% 35% 32% 37% 40% 40%
Don’t know 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 8%
No employees in the immediate family 5% 5% 8% 6% 5% 5% 8%

 45% of people are very/somewhat concerned that they or a member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so, 40% are not concerned at all.  This is the lowest level of concern regarding job loss that has been recorded in the Essential Report since we began tracking this question in February 2009.   

 Females were more likely than males to be very/somewhat concerned over job loss (47% v 41%).

People in part-time work were more likely than those in full-time work to be concerned over job loss (55% v 45%).

Coalition voters were more likely than Labor voters to be very/somewhat concerned (52% v 43%).  Comments »

Celebrating Australia Day

Jan 18, 2010

Q. Tuesday 26th January is Australia Day. Will you personally be doing anything to celebrate Australia Day or do you treat it as just a public holiday?

 

 

%

Doing something to celebrate Australia Day

40%

Just a public holiday

40%

Working – don’t get the Australia Day holiday

6%

Don’t know

14%

 

 

40% of people surveyed will be doing something to celebrate Australia Day, a further 40% treat Australia Day as just a public holiday and 6% are working because they don’t get the Australia Day holiday. 

 

Females were more likely to indicate they will be doing something to celebrate Australia Day (43%) while males were more likely to think it is just a public holiday (43%). 

 

18 – 24 year olds were more likely than those in other age groups to be doing something to celebrate Australia Day (44%).  Comments »

Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Dec 14, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1875 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 32%
National 3%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 42%
Labor 46% 58%
Greens 10%
Family First 2%
Other/Independent 7%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

Comments »

Approval of the PM, Kevin Rudd

Dec 14, 2009

Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

12 Jan 09 9 Feb 09 30 Mar 09 18 May 09 29 Jun 09 10 Aug 09 28 Sept 09 9 Nov 09 30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09
Strongly approve 14% 17% 21% 14% 14% 13% 15% 14% 9% 10%
Approve 52% 50% 50% 48% 48% 47% 51% 47% 47% 47%
Disapprove 16% 15% 14% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19% 20% 20%
Strongly disapprove 6% 8% 7% 11% 9% 10% 6% 13% 15% 12%
Don’t know 11% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 11% 8% 10% 10%
Total approve 66% 67% 71% 62% 62% 60% 66% 61% 56% 57%
Total disapprove 22% 23% 21% 29% 29% 27% 23% 32% 35% 32%

Kevin Rudd’s approval rating has increased slightly since we last asked this question (+1%) and his disapproval rating has decreased slightly (-3%).

Opinion followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to approve (92%) while Coalition voters were more likely to disapprove (74%).  18% of Coalition voters approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister.

Comments »