Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Dec 7, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1922 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 30%
National 4%
Total Lib/Nat 34% 42%
Labor 46% 58%
Greens 9%
Family First 3%
Other/Independent 8%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

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Liberal Leadership

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Does the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party make you more likely or less likely to vote Liberal?

Total Labor Coalition Greens
More likely 21% 12% 42% 5%
Less likely 33% 44% 15% 62%
Much more likely 9% 2% 24% 2%
A little more likely 12% 10% 18% 3%
A little less likely 10% 7% 12% 11%
Much less likely 23% 37% 3% 51%
Makes no difference 39% 42% 39% 32%
Don’t know 7% 2% 3% 1%

39% of people think the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party makes no difference to whether or not they will vote Liberal, 33% think it will make them less likely and 21% more likely to vote Liberal.

42% of Coalition voters think the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make them more likely to vote Liberal, 15% think that it will make them less likely and 39% think it will make no difference.  44% of Labor voters and 62% of Green voters think it will make them less likely to vote Liberal.

Females were more likely than males to indicate that the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make no difference to their vote (43% v 35%).

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Attributes to Describe the Prime Minister

Dec 7, 2009

Q.  Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?

29 June 09 7 Dec 09 Difference
Intelligent 84% 82% -2%
Hard-working 83% 77% -6%
A capable leader 72% 69% -3%
Demanding 67% 60% -7%
Arrogant 46% 49% +3%
Out of touch with ordinary people 41% 45% +4%
Understands the problems facing Australia 67% 59% -8%
Visionary 49% 48% -1%
Superficial 40% 41% +1%
Good in a crisis 60% 58% -2%
Narrow-minded 32% 36% +4%
Down to earth 56% 55% -1%
Too inflexible 32% 38% +6%
Complacent 28% 38% +10%
More honest than most politicians 47% 49% +2%
Trustworthy * 51% *

*Not asked in June 2009

Most people consider Rudd intelligent (82%), hard-working (77%), a capable leader (69%) and demanding (60%).

Since we last asked this question in June 2009, Rudd has lost points on qualities such as understanding the problems facing Australia (-8%), demanding (-7%) and hard-working (-6%).  Rudd has gained points in terms of being complacent (+10%), too inflexible (+6%), out of touch with ordinary people (+4%) and narrow-minded (+4%).

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Attributes to Describe the Opposition Leader

Dec 7, 2009

Q.  Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

Abbott

7 Dec 09

Turnbull

29 June 09

Rudd

7 Dec 09

Abbott lead over Turnbull Abbott lead over Rudd
Intelligent 71% 75% 82% -4% -11%
Hard-working 69% 68% 77% +1% -8%
A capable leader 46% 39% 69% +7% -23%
Demanding 53% 62% 60% -9% -7%
Arrogant 53% 69% 49% -16% +4%
Out of touch with ordinary people 53% 65% 45% -12% +8%
Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 48% 59% -2% -13%
Visionary 34% 26% 48% +8% -14%
Superficial 42% 51% 41% -9% +1%
Good in a crisis 39% 32% 58% +7% -19%
Narrow-minded 52% 51% 36% +1% +16%
Down to earth 46% 25% 55% +21% -9%
Too inflexible 45% 47% 38% -2% +7%
Complacent 31% 38% 38% -7% -7%
More honest than most politicians 31% 16% 49% +15% -18%
Trustworthy 36% * 51% * -15%

*Not asked in June 2009 poll

When it comes to rating Abbott, people think he is intelligent (71%) and hard-working (69%), yet demanding (53%), arrogant (53%) and out of touch with ordinary people (53%).

Abbott scores higher than his predecessor Turnbull in terms of qualities such as being down to earth (+21%), more honest than most politicians (+15%), visionary (+8%), capable leader (+7%) and good in a crisis (+7%).

Males were slightly more likely than females to think that Abbott is superficial (46% v 39%), honest (34% v 28%), visionary (37% v 32%) and down to earth (48% v 43%).

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Malcolm Turnbull’s Future Political Career

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Do you think Malcolm Turnbull should now resign from Parliament, stay in parliament on the backbench until the next election or challenge for the leadership again before the next election?

%
Resign 18%
Stay on backbench 45%
Challenge again 15%
Don’t know 23%

Just under half (45%) think that Malcolm Turnbull should stay in parliament on the backbench until the next election, 18% think he should resign and 15% think Turnbull should challenge for the leadership again before the next election.

Coalition voters were more likely to think that Turnbull should stay in parliament on the backbench (62%), while Green (28%) and Labor (18%) voters were more likely to think Turnbull should challenge again for the leadership.

Males were more likely to think Turnbull should resign (20%) while females were more likely to indicate that they don’t know what Turnbull should do (29%).

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Political Party Positions on the ETS

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Whose position on the ETS and tackling climate change do you most agree with?

%
Kevin Rudd and Labor 24%
Tony Abbott and the Coalition 27%
Bob Brown and Greens 17%
Don’t know 32%

When it comes to the position that various parties have on the ETS and tackling climate change, 27% of people agree with the position of Tony Abbott and the Coalition, 24% agree with Kevin Rudd and Labor and 17% agree with Bob Brown and the Greens.  32% of people don’t know which position they agree with regarding an ETS and tackling climate change.

The results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to agree with Labor’s position (49%), Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the Coalition (67%) and Green voters were more likely to agree with the Green’s position (80%).   30% of Labor voters, 21% of Coalition voters and 9% of Green voters don’t know which position they agree with most.

Males were more likely to agree with the position of Abbott and the Coalition (31%), while females were more likely to indicate that they don’t know (36%).

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to agree with Abbott and the Coalition regarding climate change and an ETS (42%).

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Tony Abbott and Industrial Relations

Dec 7, 2009

Q.  The new Liberal leader Tony Abbott says that the Rudd Government went too far with their industrial relations laws when they got rid of the Howard Government’s WorkChoices laws. Do you agree or disagree?

%
Total agree 37%
Total disagree 45%
Strongly agree 13%
Agree 24%
Disagree 22%
Strongly disagree 23%
Don’t know 18%

45% of people disagree with Tony Abbott’s statement that the Rudd Government went too far with their industrial relations laws when they got rid of the Howard Government’s WorkChoices.   37% agree with Abbott’s statement that the Rudd Government has gone too far with industrial relations reform and 18% don’t know.

Results followed party lines – 76% of Coalition voters agree and 74% of Labor voters disagree with Abbott’s statements regarding the Rudd Government’s industrial relations reforms.   Green voters were more likely to disagree with Abbott (62%).

Males were more likely than females to agree with Abbott’s statement (41% v 33%).   People aged 55 years and over were also more likely to agree with Abbott (47%).

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Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Nov 30, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1979 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 31%
National 4%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 42% -3%
Labor 47% 58% +3%
Greens 8%
Family First 3%
Other/Independent 7%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

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