Preferred Policy Package

May 7, 2019

Q. Regardless of your current vote, which one of the two groups of policies do you prefer?       

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Liberal/National Package 36% 7% 75% 8% 39%
Labor Package 46% 81% 15% 76% 33%
Unsure 18% 12% 10% 16% 28%
  • When asked to make a direct comparison between the policies of both major parties, 46% preferred that offered by the Labor party, compared to 36% for the Coalition.
  • 15% of Liberal/National voters said they preferred the policies offered by Labor to those of the party they intend to vote for. 7% of Labor voters said they preferred the Coalition package.
  • Respondents aged over 55 were more likely to prefer the Coalition package (43%, compared to 39% for Labor).

Election Engagement

May 7, 2019

Q. How much attention have you been paying to the news, advertising and updates from the Federal Election? 

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other Last week
Have not been paying any attention 16% 14% 10% 17% 21% 19%
Have been paying little attention 29% 29% 28% 34% 30% 29%
Have been paying some attention 36% 38% 40% 31% 31% 33%
Have been paying a lot of attention 19% 19% 21% 18% 19% 20%

 

  Total Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
Have not been paying any attention 19% 26% 15% 9%
Have been paying little attention 29% 32% 33% 23%
Have been paying some attention 36% 28% 38% 41%
Have been paying a lot of attention 19% 14% 14% 28%
  • There has been limited change in the interest shown in the election during the past week. 16% (down 3%pts from 19% last week) said they have not been paying any attention to the election. This was highest among those aged 18-34 (26%).
  • Engagement in the election was lower among those intending to vote for a minor or independent candidate. 21% of these voters say they haven’t been paying any attention the election.
  • Older voters are so far most engaged with the election, with 28% saying they have been paying a lot of attention.
  • Men were more likely than women to say they had been paying a lot of attention to the election (24% to 14%).

News Stories

May 7, 2019

Q. What news stories about the campaign have you noticed?

  • The withdrawal of candidates was the most mentioned item of news this week, with Liberal candidates Jessica Whelan (Lyons), Peter Killin (Wills) and Jeremy Hearn (Isaacs) all withdrawing. Labor lost candidates – Wayne Kurnorth (NT Senate) and Luke Creasey (Melbourne).
  • The leadership debates also received a lot of mentions this week, with a third scheduled for this week.
  • The scandal involving One Nation senator Steve Dickson had high awareness, with specific mentions, along with ‘One Nation’ and ‘Pauline Hanson’ both being talked about.

Preferred Prime Minister

May 7, 2019

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Apr 2019 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018
Scott Morrison 42%   13% 80% 13% 42%   40% 44% 42% 40% 41% 42%
Bill Shorten 31%   63% 7% 48% 19%   31% 31% 30% 29% 29% 27%
Don’t know 27%   25% 12% 40% 39%   29% 26% 28% 31% 29% 31%
  • 42% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (up 2%pts from last week), and 31% thought Bill Shorten would be better (no change). 27% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.
  • Greens voters have become more open to the idea of Bill Shorten as Prime Minister this week. 48% of Greens voters said Bill Shorten would make a better PM, up 10%pts from 38% last week. Preference for Scott Morrison has fallen 12%pts from 25% last week to 13% this week.
  • The results were split by party allegiance, with 80% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister (up 2% pts from last week), and 63% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would (up 1%pt).
  • Both men (44% to 35%) and women (40% to 27%) would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.

2019 Voting Method

May 7, 2019

Q. Which of the following best describes how you intend to vote at the Federal Election?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other Last Week
I will vote at a pre-poll before election day 24% 30% 26% 21% 22% 21%
I will vote by post 13% 12% 13% 13% 18% 12%
I will vote at a polling station on election day 50% 50% 55% 55% 48% 56%
I’m not sure how I will vote 9% 7% 5% 5% 7% 7%
I don’t intend to vote 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3%
I intend to vote informal 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1%
  • Half (50%) of voters intend to visit a polling station on election day, with pre-polling the second most popular option, with 24% intending to do this.
  • As election day gets closer, fewer people said they intend to vote on the day. Last week 56% intended to vote on election day, this is now 50%, with those intending to pre-poll increasing from 21% to 24%, and voting by post moving from 12% to 13%.
  • Voters aged 55 and over are most likely to complete a pre-poll vote before election day (30%).

Previous Voting Practice

May 7, 2019

Q. Which of the following statements best describes how you have voted in previous Federal elections? 

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
I always vote for a major party (either Labor or Liberal/National) 44% 58% 59% 5% 15%
I usually vote for the major parties, but sometimes shift to minor party or independent 36% 35% 36% 36% 37%
I usually vote for a minor party or independent but sometimes vote for a major party 13% 6% 3% 40% 30%
I always vote for a minor party or independent 7% 2% 1% 20% 18%
  • 44% of people said they always voted for a major party (either Labor or Liberal/Nationals) and a further 36% say they usually vote for one of these parties.
  • Those aged over 55 years are most likely to always vote for a major party (52%).
  • 41% of those intending to vote Green at the next election said they always, or usually voted for a major party, 52% of people intending to vote for a minor party (One Nation, UAP etc.) or an independent candidate said they always/usually voted for a major party.

Federal voting intention

Apr 30, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   3 Weeks ago   5 weeks ago   Election
08/04/19 25/03/19 02/07/16
Liberal 36%   36% 35%
National 4%   3% 4%
Total Liberal/National 39%   38% 39% 42.0%
Labor 37%   35% 36% 34.7%
Greens 9%   11% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 6%   5% 7%
Other/Independent 9%   10% 8% 13.1%
2 party preferred    
Liberal/National 49%   48% 48% 50.4%
Labor 51%   52% 52% 49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Expected winner

Apr 30, 2019

Q. Which party do you expect will win the 2019 Federal election and form Government?       

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
Labor 59% 95% 26% 73% 47%
Liberal/National 41% 5% 74% 27% 53%
  • 59% of voters believe Labor will be victorious over the Liberal/National coalition in the 2019 Federal election. Expectations among supporters of the Labor party are high, with 95% believe Labour will win. The majority of Coalition voters (74%) and those intending to vote for another party/independent candidate (53%) expect the Coalition to form Government following the election.
  • A majority of both men (60%) and women (58%) expect Labor to win the election.
  • Over half of each of the age ranges 18-34 (61%), 35-54 (61%) and 55+ (56%) also expect Labour to form the next Government.
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