Federal voting intention

Jan 15, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Total   3 weeks ago 5 weeks ago   Election
18/12/18 04/12/18 02/07/16
Liberal 34% 34% 34%
National 4% 3% 4%
Total Liberal/National 38%   37% 38%   42.0%
Labor 38%   36% 36%   34.7%
Greens 10% 11% 11% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 7% 7%
Other/Independent 8% 9% 9% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal/National 47%   47% 47%   50.4%
Labor 53%   53% 53%   49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Scott Morrison

Jan 15, 2019

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct

2018

Sep

2018

Total approve 43%   24% 77% 24% 36%   42% 41% 43% 37%
Total disapprove 39%   62% 13% 53% 49%   34% 37% 28% 31%
Strongly approve 9%   5% 19% 3% 3%   10% 10% 10% 9%
Approve 34%   19% 58% 22% 33%   32% 31% 33% 28%
Disapprove 25%   38% 11% 35% 32%   19% 21% 17% 17%
Strongly disapprove 14%   24% 2% 19% 17%   15% 16% 11% 14%
Don’t know 18%   14% 10% 22% 15%   24% 23% 28% 33%

43% approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing as Prime Minister (up 1%pt from last month) and 39% disapproved (up 5%pts from 34% in December). Just under a fifth of people (18%) could not give an opinion of his leadership of the country.

77% (no change from Dec’18) of Liberal/National voters approved of the job Scott Morrison is doing, compared to 24% of ALP voters, 24% of Greens and 36% of other voters.

By gender, men were 47% approve/42% disapprove, and of women 38% approve/37% disapprove.

Bill Shorten

Jan 15, 2019

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Jun 2018 Mar 2018
Total approve 35% 66% 22% 29% 15% 35%      38% 33% 35% 33% 37%
Total disapprove 47% 21% 68% 41% 73% 43%      44% 45% 43% 46% 44%
Strongly approve 8% 20% 4% 5% 1% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 8%
Approve 27% 47% 19% 25% 14% 27% 30% 25% 27% 27% 29%
Disapprove 25% 17% 30% 30% 36% 21% 24% 23% 21% 23% 23%
Strongly disapprove 21% 4% 38% 11% 37% 22% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21%
Don’t know 18% 13% 10% 30% 12% 22% 18% 23% 22% 21% 19%

35% approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader (no change from last month), and 47% disapproved (up 4%pts from 43%).

66% of ALP voters approved of the job Bill Shorten is doing, compared to 29% of Greens voters and 122 of Liberal/National voters.

By gender, men were 42% approve/46% disapprove and women 29% approve/47% disapprove. Bill Shorten has positive approval among 18-34 year olds, with 41% approving and 34% disapproving. However 57% of those aged over 55 disapprove of his performance as opposition leader, with just 34% approving.

Preferred Prime Minister

Jan 15, 2019

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Dec 2018 Nov 2018 Oct 2018 Sep 2018 Sep 2018
Scott Morrison 42%   16% 77% 25% 48%   40% 41% 42% 39% 39%
Bill Shorten 30%   63% 11% 39% 10%   29% 29% 27% 27% 29%
Don’t know 28%   21% 12% 37% 42%   31% 29% 31% 34% 32%

42% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (up 2%pts from last month), and 30% thought Bill Shorten would be better (up 1%pt). 28% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.

The results were split by party, with 77% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister (no change from last month), and 63% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would (up 7%pts from 56% in December).

Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (39%) to Scott Morrison (25%).

Both men (45% vs. 32%) and women (39% vs. 28%) would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.

Crime

Jan 15, 2019

Q. Do you think the following types of crime have increased or decreased over the last few years? 

  NET: Decreased NET: Increased Decreased a lot Decreased a little Increased a little Increased a lot Jan 18 NET: Increased
Drug-related crime 7% 66% 2% 4% 29% 37% 76%
Youth gang crime 7% 65% 2% 5% 26% 38% 70%
Domestic violence 8% 59% 2% 6% 32% 26% 63%
Violent crime (e.g. assault, murder) 10% 55% 2% 8% 32% 23% 60%
Burglary 11% 49% 2% 9% 28% 22% 57%
White-collar crime (e.g. fraud, corporate crime) 8% 48% 2% 6% 29% 20% 55%
Car theft 13% 44% 3% 10% 25% 19% 53%

The majority believe that drug-related crime (66%), Youth gang crime (65%), domestic violence (59%) and violent crime (55%) have all increased over the past few years. Fewer people thought all types of crime were increasing than 12 months ago.

People aged 55+ were more likely to believe crime has increased in the past few years, while those aged 18-34 were less likely.

Addressing crime

Jan 15, 2019

Q. And which of these types of crime are the most important for the Government to address?

  NET:

Top 3

  Most Important 2nd most important 3rd most important   Jan 18 NET: Top 3
Violent crime

(e.g. assault, murder)

65%   25% 20% 20%   62%
Drug-related crime 64%   20% 22% 22%   72%
Domestic violence 63%   25% 24% 15%   67%
Youth gang crime 52%   18% 18% 17%   53%
White-collar crime

(e.g. fraud, corporate crime)

29%   8% 9% 12%   28%
Burglary 16%   2% 5% 9%   13%
Car theft 10%   3% 3% 4%   6%

About two-thirds (65%) believe addressing violent crime should be a top priority for the government, followed by drug-related crime (64%) and domestic violence (63%).

Car theft (10%) and burglary (16%) are seen as lesser priorities.

Pill testing

Jan 15, 2019

Q. Thinking about drug policy, do you support or oppose pill testing services (where trained counsellors provide risk reduction advice informed by on-site, laboratory analysis of people’s drugs)?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+ Dec 18
NET: Support 63%   73% 57% 74% 58%   65% 62% 73% 57% 61% 59%
NET: Oppose 24%   18% 33% 17% 30%   28% 21% 17% 23% 32% 17%
Strongly support 30%   36% 23% 39% 31%   28% 31% 37% 26% 28% 23%
Support 34%   37% 33% 36% 28%   36% 31% 36% 31% 34% 36%
Oppose 12%   10% 17% 6% 12%   12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 8%
Strongly oppose 13%   8% 15% 11% 17%   16% 9% 5% 11% 20% 9%
Don’t know 12%   9% 10% 9% 12%   8% 17% 11% 20% 7% 25%

Over six in ten Australians (63%) support pill testing services. The majority of Labor (73%) and Coalition (57%) voters support pill testing as well as both genders (65% men and 62% women support) and age groups.

Support for these services has increased 4%pts from last month (up from 59% support in Dec’18).

Immigration and multiculturalism

Jan 15, 2019

Q. Do you think the levels of immigration into Australia over the past ten years has been…?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other   Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+ Apr 18
NET: Too high 56%   47% 67% 28% 77%   55% 57% 38% 58% 69% 64%
NET: Too low 12%   16% 5% 29% 3%   11% 12% 17% 11% 8% 5%
Much too high 33%   26% 37% 11% 57%   32% 34% 19% 35% 42% 37%
A little too high 23%   21% 30% 16% 20%   23% 23% 19% 23% 28% 27%
About right 26%   32% 25% 38% 16%   31% 22% 36% 24% 20% 23%
A little too low 7%   10% 4% 14% 2%   6% 8% 10% 7% 5% 4%
Much too low 4%   7% 1% 15% 1%   5% 4% 6% 4% 3% 1%
Don’t know 6%   5% 3% 6% 3%   3% 9% 9% 7% 3% 7%

Over half of Australians (56%) think that the level of immigration into Australia over the last ten years has been too high, but this has decreased from 64% in April 2018. 26% think it is about right and only 12% think it is too low.

Over 60% of Liberal/National voters (67%) think it is too high.

38% of people aged 18-35 think the immigration level is too high, this rises to 58% of 35-54 years olds and 69% among those aged over 55.

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