Federal voting intention

Dec 18, 2018

 Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   2 weeks ago

4/12/18

4 weeks ago 20/11/18   Election  2 Jul 16
Liberal 34% 34% 34%
National 3% 4% 3%
Total Liberal/National 37%   38% 37%   42.0%
Labor 36%   39% 35%   34.7%
Greens 11% 10% 11% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 6% 7%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 10% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal National 47%   46% 48%   50.4%
Labor 53%   54% 52%   49.6%
  1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Last 12 months

Dec 18, 2018

Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

  Total good Total bad NET   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know 2017 NET
The Australian economy 32% 26% +6   6% 26% 36% 21% 5% 6% +11
Australian politics in general 15% 65% -50   3% 12% 16% 32% 33% 4% -36
The Australian Government 16% 57% -41 4% 12% 22% 30% 27% 5% na
Large companies and corporations 31% 22% +9 6% 25% 37% 16% 6% 11% +22
Small business 29% 23% +6 4% 25% 39% 18% 5% 9% -2
Trade unions 21% 23% -2 3% 18% 39% 14% 9% 17% -7
The average Australian 28% 29% -1 4% 24% 37% 23% 6% 6% -6
Your personal financial situation 30% 30%   5% 25% 36% 18% 12% 4% +1
Your workplace (workers) 46% 18% +28   9% 37% 32% 12% 6% 4% +34
You and your family overall 46% 18% +28   11% 35% 33% 13% 5% 3% +27
The planet 19% 38% -19   4% 15% 38% 27% 11% 6% -22
The Australian cricket team 30% 28% +2 5% 25% 33% 21% 7% 10% na

Respondents believed that 2018 has been a relatively good year for your workplace (+28) and you and your family overall (+28). It was considered a particularly bad year for Australian politics in general (-50) and the Australian Government (-41).

Relative to 2017 (as measured in December last year), this year was considered somewhat worse in terms of  – Australian politics in general (down 14) and large companies (down 13). However, it was considered a little better for small business (up 8).

Expectations for 2019

Dec 18, 2018

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2019 will be a good or bad year for each of the following?

  Total good Total bad NET   Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know 2017 NET
The Australian economy 30% 28% +2 5% 25% 33% 21% 7% 10%   +12
Australian politics in general 20% 41% -21 5% 15% 29% 26% 15% 11%   -21
The Australian Government 18% 46% -28 3% 15% 25% 29% 17% 12% na
Large companies and corporations 30% 19% +11 6% 24% 37% 15% 4% 14% +27
Small business 32% 18% +14 4% 28% 36% 14% 4% 13% +5
Trade unions 23% 20% +3 5% 18% 39% 13% 7% 20% -2
The average Australian 32% 22% +10 5% 27% 37% 17% 5% 10% +2
Your personal financial situation 36% 23% +13 6% 30% 34% 15% 8% 7% +12
Your workplace (workers) 47% 15% +32 11% 36% 31% 11% 4% 7% +37
You and your family overall 48% 14% +34 11% 37% 31% 10% 4% 8% +31
The planet 25% 33% -8 5% 20% 32% 22% 11% 10% -15
The Australian cricket team 20% 24% -4 4% 16% 31% 16% 8% 25% na

Overall, there was a very positive outlook for your workplace (+37) and you and your family overall (+31). Expectations were also quite positive for large companies (+11), small business (+14), the average Australian (+10) and personal financial situation (+13).

Compared to last year, respondents were less optimistic about the economy and large companies but more optimistic about small business and the average Australian.

Early election

Dec 18, 2018

Q. Do you think the Coalition Government should run its full term until around May 2019 when the next Federal election is due or do you think they should call an early election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote LNP Vote Greens Vote other
Should run full term 52% 40% 78% 30% 57%
Should call an early election 27% 43% 12% 45% 27%
Don’t know 21% 17% 11% 26% 15%

About half think the Government should run its full term while 27% think they should call an early election. 76% of LNP voters think they should serve the full term while Labor voters are split with 43% favouring an early election and 40% wanting the Government to run its full term.

Party expect to win next election

Dec 18, 2018

Q. Which party do you think will win the next Federal election?

  Total   Vote Labor Vote LNP Vote Greens Vote other
The Labor Party 52% 89% 30% 57% 40%
The Liberal National coalition 21% 1% 53% 6% 19%
Don’t know 27% 9% 17% 37% 41%

About half think that the Labor Party will win the next Federal election and 21% think the coalition will win. 89% of Labor voters think Labor will win compared to 53% of LNP voters who think the coalition will win.

Leader attributes – Scott Morrison

Dec 18, 2018

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison?

  Total Sep 2018   Change
Intelligent 61% 66% -5
Hard-working 60% 60%
Out of touch with ordinary people 54% 51% +3
A capable leader 49% 54% -5
Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 51% -5
Narrow-minded 46% 41% +5
Superficial 45% 43% +2
Arrogant 43% 38% +5
Good in a crisis 41% 44% -3
Trustworthy 39% 41% -2
More honest than most politicians 39% 38%   +1
Visionary 38% 39% -1
Intolerant 37% 36% +1
Erratic 36% 29%   +7
Aggressive 34% 34%  

Scott Morrison’s key attributes were intelligent (61%, down 5% since September), hard working (60%, no change), out of touch with ordinary people (54%, up 3%) and a capable leader (49%, down 5%).

Main changes since September are for erratic (up 7%), intelligent, a capable leader, understands the problems facing Australia (all down 5%) and narrow-minded and arrogant (both up 5%).

Leader attributes – Bill Shorten

Dec 18, 2018

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten?

  Total Sep 2018   Change
Hard working 57% 58% -1
Intelligent 56% 55% +1
Out of touch with ordinary people 50% 50%
Superficial 47% 50% -3
Arrogant 46% 50% -4
Understands the problems facing Australia 45% 48% -3
Narrow-minded 44% 44%
A capable leader 43% 43%
Erratic 40% 41% -1
Intolerant 39% 39%
Aggressive 37% 38% -1
Good in a crisis 36% 39% -3
Trustworthy 34% 33% +1
Visionary 32% 34% -2
More honest than most politicians 31% 29% +2

Bill Shorten’s key attributes were hard working (57%, down 1% since September), intelligent (56%, up 1%), out of touch with ordinary people (50%, no change), superficial (47%, down 3%) and arrogant (46%, down 4%).

The main change since September have been for arrogant (down 4%).

Leader attributes – comparisions

Dec 18, 2018
  Scott Morrison Bill Shorten   Difference
More honest than most politicians 39% 31% +8
A capable leader 49% 43% +6
Visionary 38% 32% +6
Intelligent 61% 56% +5
Trustworthy 39% 34% +5
Good in a crisis 41% 36% +5
Out of touch with ordinary people 54% 50% +4
Hard-working 60% 57% +3
Narrow-minded 46% 44% +2
Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 45% +1
Intolerant 37% 39% -2
Superficial 45% 47% -2
Aggressive 34% 37% -3
Arrogant 43% 46% -3
Erratic 36% 40% -4

Compared to Bill Shorten, Scott Morrison is more likely to be considered more honest than most politicians (+8), a capable leader (+6) and visionary (+6).

Bill Shorten is a little more likely to be considered erratic (+4), arrogant (+3) and superficial (+3). However, on most attributes the gap between the two leaders has narrowed since these questions were last asked in September.

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