Federal voting intention

Feb 13, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Q       Total   2 weeks ago 4 weeks ago   Election
01/02/19 14/01/19 02/07/16
Liberal 31% 34% 34%
National 3% 4% 4%
Total Liberal/National 34% 38% 38% 42.0%
Labor 38% 36% 38% 34.7%
Greens 10% 10% 10% 10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7% 7% 7%
Other/Independent 11% 9% 8% 13.1%
2 party preferred
Liberal/National 45% 48% 47% 50.4%
Labor 55% 52% 53% 49.6%

Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Perceptions of the Banking Royal Commission

Feb 13, 2019

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the Banking Royal Commission?   

  Strongly agree  + Somewhat agree Strongly disagree + Somewhat disagree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
A more ethical banking sector would be good for the Australian economy 72% 6% 48% 24% 14% 3% 4% 8%
Regardless of the rules, the banks will always find a way to make money and exploit customers 71% 8% 40% 31% 14% 5% 3% 6%
Scott Morrison should not end this session of Parliament before the Government deals with all the recommendations of the Royal Commission 59% 11% 32% 26% 19% 6% 5% 11%
The banks have more power than politicians and will find a way to block meaningful reform 55% 15% 25% 30% 20% 10% 5% 10%

72% of Australians agree that a more ethical financial sector would be good for the economy, however a similar percentage (71%) also believe banks will always find a way to exploit customers and over half (54%) agree that the banks will find a way to block any meaningful reform in the sector.

  Strongly agree  + Somewhat agree Strongly disagree + Somewhat disagree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
The Coalition never supported the Royal Commission and will do all it can to water down the recommendations 39% 17% 20% 20% 28% 10% 7% 16%
If the new regulations are too restrictive on banks it will harm the economy and we will all suffer 37% 28% 12% 25% 25% 16% 11% 10%
Since the start of the Royal Commission, I have considered moving my savings into a smaller bank or credit union 31% 32% 15% 16% 29% 17% 15% 8%

While 37% of Australians agree the economy would suffer due to too restrictive regulations, 28% disagreed with this statement.

Just under a third of Australians (31%) agree that they have considered moving their money away from bigger banks as a result of the revelations exposed in the Banking Royal Commission.

  Total
(Strongly agree + somewhat agree)
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
A more ethical banking sector would be good for the Australian economy 72% 72% 72% 62% 74% 78%
Regardless of the rules, the banks will always find a way to make money and exploit customers 71% 73% 70% 63% 71% 78%
Scott Morrison should not end this session of Parliament before the Government deals with all the recommendations of the Royal Commission 59% 58% 59% 48% 59% 67%
The banks have more power than politicians and will find a way to block meaningful reform 55% 56% 54% 48% 53% 63%
The Coalition never supported the Royal Commission and will do all it can to water down the recommendations 39% 44% 35% 36% 43% 38%
If the new regulations are too restrictive on banks it will harm the economy and we will all suffer 37% 39% 36% 42% 40% 31%
Since the start of the Royal Commission, I have considered moving my savings into a smaller bank or credit union 31% 34% 27% 34% 34% 25%

Males are more likely than females to agree that the Coalition never supported the Royal Commission and will attempt to minimise its impact (44% vs. 35%).

People aged 55 and over were most likely to agree that banks will always find ways to exploit customers (78%) and the banks will find a way to block meaningful reform (63%).

  Total
(Strongly agree + somewhat agree)
Labor Liberal + National Greens NET: Other
A more ethical banking sector would be good for the Australian economy 72% 74% 72% 70% 79%
Regardless of the rules, the banks will always find a way to make money and exploit customers 71% 74% 71% 67% 82%
Scott Morrison should not end this session of Parliament before the Government deals with all the recommendations of the Royal Commission 59% 63% 62% 51% 64%
The banks have more power than politicians and will find a way to block meaningful reform 55% 60% 48% 56% 69%
The Coalition never supported the Royal Commission and will do all it can to water down the recommendations 39% 58% 24% 39% 41%
If the new regulations are too restrictive on banks it will harm the economy and we will all suffer 37% 37% 46% 28% 39%
Since the start of the Royal Commission, I have considered moving my savings into a smaller bank or credit union 31% 34% 31% 33% 32%

Both Labor voters (63%) and Coalition voters (62%) have high agreement that this session of parliament should not conclude, until the recommendations of the Royal Commission are dealt with.

Coalition voters were most likely to agree that restrictions on banks could damage the economy (46%).

Trust to implement recommendations of the Banking Royal Commission

Feb 13, 2019

Q. Who do you trust to implement the recommendations of the Banking Royal Commission?   

Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party 23% 28% 18% 21% 18% 29%
Bill Shorten and the Labor Party 27% 30% 25% 27% 30% 25%
No difference 35% 34% 37% 33% 37% 36%
Don’t know 15% 9% 20% 19% 15% 10%

Over a third of people (35%) believe it will make no difference whether a Coalition or Labor Government implement the recommendations of the Banking Royal Commission.

Males (28%) and voters over the age of 55 (29%) are most likely to trust the Coalition to deliver the recommendations.

Total Labor Liberal + National Greens NET: Other
Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party 23% 5% 56% 6% 17%
Bill Shorten and the Labor Party 27% 60% 5% 32% 8%
No difference 35% 26% 29% 45% 58%
Don’t know 15% 9% 9% 18% 16%

Trust to deliver the Banking Royal Commission recommendations generally follow party voting intention, with 60% of Labor voters, and 56% of Coalition voters trusting their own party.

Greens voters (45%) and minor party/independent voters (58%) are most likely to think it will no make a difference who implements the recommendations.

Impact of the Banking Royal Commission

Feb 13, 2019

Q. Following a fourteen-month investigation, the Banking Royal Commission released its findings and recommendations regarding changes to the financial sector this week. Based on what you have heard, do you think the Royal Commission…

Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
Will lead to significant changes to the way banks operate 28% 30% 27% 29% 29% 27%
Will lead to minor changes to the way banks operate 47% 47% 47% 51% 40% 50%
Will make no real difference to the way banks operate 25% 23% 27% 20% 31% 23%

A quarter of people do not think the Banking Royal Commission will make a real difference to the way banks will operate (25%) and just under half (47%), think it will only lead to minor changes.

People aged 35-54 were most likely to believe there will be no difference to the way banks operate (31%).

There was no difference between men and women regarding the anticipated impact of the Royal Commission.

Total Labor Liberal + National Greens NET: Other
Will lead to significant changes to the way banks operate 28% 32% 31% 18% 23%
Will lead to minor changes to the way banks operate 47% 45% 55% 53% 41%
Will make no real difference to the way banks operate 25% 23% 14% 29% 37%

People who indent to votes for smaller parties (One Nation, Australian Conservatives) and Independent candidates are most likely to think there will be no change as a result of the Royal Commission (37%).

Federal voting intention

Feb 5, 2019

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Total   2 weeks ago 5 weeks ago   Election
14/01/19 18/12/18 02/07/16
Liberal 34%   34% 34%    
National 4%   4% 3%    
Total Liberal/National 38%   38% 37%   42.0%
Labor 36%   38% 36%   34.7%
Greens 10%   10% 11%   10.2%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 7%   7% 7%    
Other/Independent 9%   8% 9%   13.1%
2 party preferred            
Liberal/National 48%   47% 47%   50.4%
Labor 52%   53% 53%   49.6%

Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Gender in politics

Feb 5, 2019

Q. Currently there are 43 (out of 150) federal MPs who are women. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the following reasons why there are fewer women than men in parliament?

  Strongly agree + Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree + Strongly disagree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
Political parties do not do enough to ensure gender equality in their organisations 57% 30% 22% 35% 19% 11% 14%
The process used by political parties to select electoral candidates favours men, rather than women 54% 28% 20% 34% 17% 11% 18%
Women choose not to get involved with politics 47% 41% 12% 35% 23% 19% 12%
Voters prefer to elect men, rather than women 39% 46% 10% 29% 28% 18% 15%
Women are less likely than men to have the experience and skills to make a good politician 20% 72% 7% 14% 23% 49% 8%

Over half of all people agreed that “Political parties do not do enough to ensure gender equality in their organisations” (57%), “The process used by political parties to select electoral candidates favours men, rather than women” (54%) and disagreed that “Women are less likely than men to have the experience and skills to make a good politician” (72%).

  Total

(Strongly agree + Somewhat agree)

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+
Political parties do not do enough to ensure gender equality in their organisation 57% 53% 61% 59% 55% 56%
The process used by political parties to select electoral candidates favours men, rather than women 54% 50% 57% 56% 48% 57%
Women choose not to get involved with politics 47% 50% 44% 43% 44% 53%
Voters prefer to elect men, rather than women 39% 38% 40% 46% 37% 35%
Women are less likely than men to have the experience and skills to make a good politician 20% 25% 15% 29% 17% 15%

By gender, males were more likely than females to agree that “Women choose not to get involved with politics” (50% vs. 48%) and “Women are less likely than men to have the experience and skills to make a good politician” (25% vs. 15%). 

  Total

(Strongly agree + Somewhat agree)

Labor Liberal + National Greens NET: Other
Political parties do not do enough to ensure gender equality in their organisation 57% 64% 51% 70% 51%
The process used by political parties to select electoral candidates favours men, rather than women 54% 65% 48% 64% 45%
Women choose not to get involved with politics 47% 41% 56% 38% 52%
Voters prefer to elect men, rather than women 39% 40% 42% 45% 35%
Women are less likely than men to have the experience and skills to make a good politician 20% 16% 27% 14% 19%

Over half of voters for all political parties agreed that “Political parties do not do enough to ensure gender equality in their organisation”.

Gender quotas

Feb 5, 2019

Q. To what extent do you support or oppose political parties setting gender quotas when selecting candidates to achieve a representative number of women in parliament?

Total Male Female Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
NET: Support 46% 45% 48% 59% 44% 38%
NET: Oppose 40% 44% 36% 29% 40% 49%
Strongly support 18% 17% 19% 26% 14% 14%
Somewhat support 29% 28% 29% 33% 30% 24%
Somewhat oppose 20% 21% 19% 16% 19% 22%
Strongly oppose 20% 23% 18% 12% 21% 26%
Don’t know 14% 12% 16% 12% 16% 14%

Just under one in five (18%) strongly support the introduction of gender quotas when selecting political candidates. Overall support was highest among 18-34 years olds (59%).

Total Labor Liberal + National Greens NET: Other
NET: Support 46% 59% 37% 65% 32%
NET: Oppose 40% 30% 50% 22% 52%
Strongly support 18% 24% 13% 27% 11%
Somewhat support 29% 36% 24% 38% 22%
Somewhat oppose 20% 17% 22% 16% 25%
Strongly oppose 20% 14% 29% 6% 28%
Don’t know 14% 10% 12% 13% 15%

Support for gender quotas was highest among Greens voters (65%), followed by Labor (59%). Under half of Coalition voters (37%) were in support.

Australia Day

Feb 5, 2019

Q. Will you personally be doing anything to celebrate Australia Day or do you treat it as just a public holiday?

Total Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+ Jan ‘17 Jan ‘16 Jan ‘15
Doing something to celebrate Australia Day 40% 45% 38% 38% 34% 38% 40%
Just a public holiday 45% 43% 49% 44% 46% 44% 41%
Working – I don’t get the Australia Day holiday 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7%
Don’t know 9% 5% 8% 13% 15% 12% 12%

40% said they will be doing something to celebrate Australia Day, 45% treat Australia Day as just a public holiday and 6% are working because they don’t get the Australia Day holiday.

People aged 18-34 were most likely to be engaging in specific celebrations to mark the National Day (45%).

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