Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 1, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,865 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago
3/6/13

2 weeks ago
17/6/13

Last week
24/6/13

This week
1/7/13

 

This week (single week result)
sample = 906

Liberal

 

45%

44%

44%

43%

42%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

47%

46%

46%

Labor

38.0%

35%

35%

34%

36%

38%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

11%

9%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election
21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago
3/6/13

2 weeks ago
17/6/13

Last week
24/6/13

This week
1/7/13

 

This week (single week result)
sample = 906

Liberal National

49.9%

55%

54%

55%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

45%

46%

45%

47%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Approval of Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard

Jul 1, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

55%

77%

40%

48%

Total disapprove

31%

13%

49%

37%

Strongly approve

24%

45%

12%

8%

Approve

31%

32%

28%

40%

Disapprove

15%

8%

22%

23%

Strongly disapprove

16%

5%

27%

14%

Don’t know

14%

10%

12%

16%

55% approve Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party and 31% disapprove.

77% of Labor voters approve and 13% disapprove.

63% of men approve and 27% disapprove compared to 46% of women approve and 36% disapprove.

Likelihood of voting Labor

Jul 1, 2013

Q. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for the Labor Party now that Kevin Rudd is leader?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total more likely

33%

61%

14%

21%

Total less likely

19%

4%

33%

26%

Much more likely

20%

46%

3%

10%

A little more likely

13%

15%

11%

11%

Makes no difference

42%

34%

50%

44%

A little less likely

4%

2%

4%

15%

Much less likely

15%

2%

29%

11%

Don’t know

6%

2%

3%

11%

33% say they are more likely to vote Labor now the Kevin Rudd is leader, 19% are less likely and 42% say it makes no difference.

For men, 34% say they are more likely and 19% less likely compared to 32% more likely and 19% less likely with women.

Value of the dollar – for the economy

Jul 1, 2013

Q. Over the last few weeks the value of the Australian dollar has fallen against other currencies. Do you think this is good or bad for the Australian economy?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

37%

42%

36%

29%

Total bad

25%

17%

34%

23%

Very good

6%

8%

5%

Good

31%

34%

31%

29%

Neither good nor bad

28%

32%

25%

39%

Bad

20%

15%

26%

15%

Very bad

5%

2%

8%

8%

Don’t know

10%

9%

5%

9%

37% think that the falling value of the dollar is good for the Australian economy and 25% think it is bad for the economy.

49% of those aged 55+ think it is good for the economy.

Value of the dollar – for you personally

Jul 1, 2013

Q. Do you think it is good or bad for you personally?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

14%

15%

14%

14%

Total bad

42%

36%

49%

43%

Very good

3%

4%

2%

Good

11%

11%

12%

14%

Neither good nor bad

38%

43%

34%

36%

Bad

31%

29%

35%

30%

Very bad

11%

7%

14%

13%

Don’t know

7%

5%

3%

6%

14% think that the falling value of the dollar is good for them personally and 42% think it is bad for them personally. 38% think it is neither good nor bad.

49% of those on income above $1,600pw think it is bad for them personally while 49% of those earning less than $1,000pw think it is neither good nor bad.

Groups better off under Labor or Liberal Government

Jul 1, 2013

Q. Do you think the following groups of people would be better off under a Labor Government or a Liberal Government?

 

Better off under a Labor Government

Better off under a Liberal Government

Makes
no difference

Don’t know

 

Difference
(Labor minus Liberal)

Difference
Sept
12

People with disabilities

41%

20%

23%

16%

+21

+20

People and families on low incomes

42%

21%

21%

16%

+21

+27

Single parents

35%

20%

25%

20%

+15

+23

Unemployed people

35%

21%

27%

18%

+14

+27

Families with children at public school

36%

22%

23%

19%

+14

+19

Recent immigrants to Australia

31%

18%

28%

24%

+13

+18

Pensioners

34%

23%

25%

19%

+11

+16

Average working people

31%

29%

24%

16%

+2

+5

People and families on middle incomes

28%

33%

21%

18%

-5

-7

Farmers and other agricultural producers

19%

34%

24%

24%

-15

-13

Small businesses

20%

38%

20%

21%

-18

-16

Families with children at private school

15%

42%

23%

20%

-27

-30

Banks and other financial institutions

10%

45%

23%

21%

-35

-38

People and families on high incomes

12%

53%

17%

18%

-41

-43

Large corporations

10%

53%

18%

19%

-43

-48

Respondents were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Labor Government – people with disabilities, low income families, single parents, unemployed and families with children at public school.

They were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Liberal Government – large corporations, high income families, banks and financial institutions, families with children at private schools.

Australian troops in Afghanistan

Jul 1, 2013

Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –

 

Jun 2010

May 2011

Nov 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan

7%

6%

3%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan

24%

36%

22%

22%

23%

16%

14%

22%

11%

Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan

61%

48%

64%

64%

62%

69%

72%

64%

70%

Don’t know

8%

11%

11%

10%

11%

13%

12%

12%

19%

Support for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan increased to 69% from 62% last September. Support for increasing or maintaining troops in Afghanistan dropped from 27% to 18%.

65% of men and 73% of women favour withdrawal of troops.

Support for withdrawing Australian troops has increased for all voter groups – up 12 points to 72% for Labor voters, up 6 points to 64% for Liberal/National voters and up 5 points to 70% for Greens voters.

Sign up for updates

Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.