Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 1, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,908 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

2/9/13

2 weeks ago

16/9/13

Last week

24/9/13

This week

1/10/13

Liberal

 

41%

42%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.5%

44%

44%

43%

43%

Labor

33.4%

35%

36%

37%

36%

Greens

8.7%

11%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

10%

11%

11%

12%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

2/9/13

2 weeks ago

16/9/13

Last week

24/9/13

This week

1/10/13

Liberal National

53.4%

52%

53%

51%

52%

Labor

46.6%

48%

47%

49%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Climate change

Oct 1, 2013

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

 

Nov 09

Dec 10

30 May 11

14 Jun

15 Oct 12

 29 Jan 13

27 May

 

Total

1 Oct

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

53%

45%

52%

50%

48%

51%

51%

52%

67%

36%

82%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

34%

36%

36%

39%

39%

40%

35%

36%

22%

51%

10%

Don’t know

13%

19%

12%

12%

13%

9%

14%

12%

10%

12%

8%

52% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 36% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is a similar result to when this question was previously asked in May.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 61%/25% and those aged 55+ split 42%/48%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 64%/27%.

Carbon pricing

Oct 1, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the previous Labor Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

 

7 Mar 2011

14 June

19 Sep

21 Nov

25 Jun 2012

2 Oct

29 Jan 2013

27 May

 

Total

1 Oct

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

38%

37%

38%

35%

38%

37%

43%

39%

65%

14%

86%

Total oppose

48%

49%

52%

53%

54%

48%

50%

43%

47%

21%

76%

9%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

14%

14%

12%

11%

15%

15%

28%

2%

47%

Support

26%

25%

23%

24%

21%

26%

26%

28%

24%

37%

12%

39%

Oppose

19%

19%

17%

17%

19%

22%

22%

20%

23%

14%

35%

7%

Strongly oppose

29%

30%

35%

36%

35%

26%

28%

23%

24%

7%

41%

2%

Don’t know

18%

13%

12%

10%

11%

14%

12%

13%

15%

15%

10%

4%

Support for carbon pricing has dropped since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down four points to 39% and opposition up four points to 47%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (65%) and Greens voters (86%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 76% of Coalition voters oppose it.

Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 47% support and 34% oppose while 64% of those aged 55+ oppose and 29% support.

Climate change policies

Oct 1, 2013

Q. The new Liberal Government plans to dump the carbon tax and replace it with what they call a “direct action” plan which involves planting trees and paying companies to reduce their carbon pollution. Which approach to climate change would you favour?

 

27 May 13

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The current tax on the largest polluting companies to encourage them to reduce carbon pollution

39%

31%

57%

9%

62%

The Liberal’s policy to plant trees and pay companies to reduce carbon pollution

29%

35%

13%

57%

9%

Neither

18%

16%

14%

18%

6%

Don’t know

14%

17%

16%

16%

22%

31% favour the previous Government’s policy on addressing climate change and 35% favour the Liberal Government’s “direct action” plan. 16% do not support either approach. This is a significant shift in favour of the Liberal’s plan.

The previous Government’s approach had strongest support from Labor voters (57%), Greens voters (62%) and people with university degrees (37%).

The Liberal Government’s plan had strongest support from Liberal/National voters (57%) and people aged 55+ (44%).

Manufacturing industry

Oct 1, 2013

Q. Thinking about the Australian manufacturing industry, which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Aug 2012

Jun 2013

With Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry

65%

70%

64%

60%

63%

61%

There is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money

19%

17%

23%

17%

17%

22%

Don’t know

16%

13%

14%

23%

21%

17%

65% agree that “With Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” and 19% agree “There is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money”. Those who think that “Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” has increased 4% and those thinking “There is no future for manufacturing in Australia” has dropped 3% since this question was last asked in June.

Those most likely to agree that “Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” were aged 45+ (69%), Labor voters (70%) and people on income of less than $1,000pw (75%).

Those most likely to agree that “There is no future for manufacturing in Australia” were men (25%), Liberal/National voters (23%) and people on incomes over $1,600pw (28%).

Importance of car manufacturing

Oct 1, 2013

Q. How important is it that Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it costs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in Government support and subsidies?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Jun 2013

Total important

58%

63%

59%

45%

52%

Total not important

30%

26%

33%

33%

35%

Very important

24%

31%

22%

12%

19%

Somewhat important

34%

32%

37%

33%

33%

Not very important

18%

16%

19%

21%

24%

Not at all important

12%

10%

14%

11%

11%

Don’t know

12%

12%

8%

24%

12%

58% think that it is very or somewhat important that Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it costs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in Government support and subsidies. 30% think it is not very or not at all important. This represents a significant increase in “importance” since this question was previously asked in June.

Those most likely to think it was important were Labor voters (63%) and people on incomes under $1,000pw (65%).

33% of Liberal/National voters, 33% of Greens voters and 38% of people with university degrees thought it not important.

Information about asylum seeker boat arrivals

Oct 1, 2013

Q. Under previous Governments the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service has issued statements whenever an asylum-seeker boat arrived. Do you approve or disapprove of the Abbott Government’s decision to stop providing this information about the arrival of asylum-seeker boats?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

39%

16%

67%

13%

Total disapprove

48%

75%

21%

74%

Strongly approve

16%

5%

31%

7%

Approve

23%

11%

36%

6%

Disapprove

16%

20%

15%

13%

Strongly disapprove

32%

55%

6%

61%

Don’t know

13%

9%

12%

12%

39% approve of the Abbott Government’s decision to stop providing information about the arrival of asylum-seeker boats and 48% disapprove.

Views are strongly associated with political party preference – 75% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters disapprove while 67% of Liberal/National voters approve.

Australian Building and Construction Commission

Oct 1, 2013

Q. The Abbott Government has committed to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission to address claims of union militancy in the construction industry. The ABCC’s powers included preventing any person from revealing they had been forced to give testimony to the Commission, and overriding a person’s right to silence.

Do you support or oppose re-establishing the ABCC?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

29%

13%

52%

12%

Total oppose

22%

39%

5%

46%

Strongly support

12%

4%

25%

4%

Support

17%

9%

27%

8%

Neither support nor oppose

23%

22%

22%

16%

Oppose

9%

13%

3%

21%

Strongly oppose

13%

26%

2%

25%

Don’t know

25%

27%

21%

25%

29% support re-establishing the ABCC and 22% oppose. 48% have no opinion either way.

35% of men support compared to 23% of women.

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