Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 2, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,818 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

4/3/13

2 weeks ago

18/2/13

Last week

25/3/13

This week

2/4/13

Liberal

46%

45%

45%

47%

National

3%

2%

2%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

47%

47%

49%

Labor

38.0%

32%

35%

33%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

54%

54%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

46%

46%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Attributes of the Labor Party

Apr 2, 2013

Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?

 

6 Jul 09

14 Mar 10

 

27 April 11

 

28 May 12

2 Apr 13

% change

Divided

30%

36%

66%

73%

82%

+9%

Will promise to do anything to win votes

57%

63%

72%

70%

71%

+1%

Out of touch with ordinary people

44%

48%

61%

58%

63%

+5%

Moderate

65%

63%

51%

50%

47%

-3%

Looks after the interests of working people

39%

47%

42%

-5%

Have a vision for the future

43%

41%

42%

+1%

Understands the problems facing Australia

62%

54%

40%

46%

39%

-7%

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

46%

36%

39%

+3%

Extreme

25%

26%

38%

31%

38%

+7%

Clear about what they stand for

28%

31%

27%

-4%

Has a good team of leaders

60%

52%

34%

29%

24%

-5%

Keeps its promises

44%

33%

20%

22%

19%

-3%

The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (82%), will promise anything to win votes (71%), out of touch with ordinary people (63%) and moderate (47%).

Main changes since last May were – divided (up 9% to 82%), understands the problems facing Australia (down 7% to 39%), extreme (up 7% to 38%), out of touch with ordinary people (up 5% to 63%), looks after the interests of working people (down 5% to 42%) and has a good team of leaders (down 5% to 24%).

Attributes of the Liberal Party

Apr 2, 2013

Q. And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?

 

6 July 09

14 Mar 10

 

27 April 11

28 May 12

2 Apr 13

% change

Will promise to do anything to win votes

67%

72%

65%

63%

67%

+4%

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

60%

58%

59%

+1%

Out of touch with ordinary people

62%

58%

54%

53%

54%

+1%

Moderate

50%

50%

55%

52%

52%

Have a vision for the future

48%

48%

52%

+4%

Understands the problems facing Australia

44%

43%

51%

52%

50%

-2%

Clear about what they stand for

44%

46%

48%

+2%

Has a good team of leaders

29%

31%

40%

39%

41%

+2%

Looks after the interests of working people

38%

40%

40%

Extreme

36%

38%

36%

34%

35%

+1%

Keeps its promises

28%

23%

33%

34%

34%

Divided

74%

66%

49%

37%

32%

-5%

The Liberal Party’s main attributes were – will promise anything to win votes (67%), too close to the big corporate and financial interest (59%), out of touch with ordinary people (54%), moderate (52%) and have a vision for the future (52%).

The only substantial change since May last year was a drop in the figure for “divided” – down 5% to 32%.

Party attributes comparison – Labor vs Liberal

Apr 2, 2013
 

Labor

Liberal

 

% difference

Divided

82%

32%

+50%

Out of touch with ordinary people

63%

54%

+9%

Will promise to do anything to win votes

71%

67%

+4%

Extreme

38%

35%

+3%

Looks after the interests of working people

42%

40%

+2%

Moderate

47%

52%

-5%

Have a vision for the future

42%

52%

-10%

Understands the problems facing Australia

39%

50%

-11%

Keeps its promises

19%

34%

-15%

Has a good team of leaders

24%

41%

-17%

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

39%

59%

-20%

Clear about what they stand for

27%

48%

-21%

The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of being too close to the big corporate and financial interests.

The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of – divided, clear about what they stand for, has a good team of leaders and keeps it promises.

 

Leader attributes – Julia Gillard

Apr 2, 2013

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?

 

5
Jul
10

4
Oct
10

7
Feb
11

27
Jun
11

2
Apr
12

17
Sept
12

14
Jan
13

2
Apr
13

Change

Intelligent

87%

81%

75%

73%

61%

68%

72%

69%

-3%

Hard-working

89%

82%

76%

75%

65%

69%

72%

66%

-6%

Out of touch with ordinary people

35%

44%

50%

60%

65%

56%

53%

64%

+11%

Arrogant

37%

39%

44%

48%

53%

46%

47%

55%

+8%

Superficial

51%

52%

54%

46%

46%

55%

+9%

Narrow-minded

28%

35%

43%

46%

53%

46%

45%

55%

+10%

Aggressive

42%

46%

55%

+9%

Erratic

43%

40%

55%

+15%

Intolerant

37%

37%

49%

+12%

Good in a crisis

61%

46%

46%

41%

36%

43%

50%

44%

-6%

A capable leader

72%

59%

52%

42%

38%

43%

50%

37%

-13%

Understands the problems facing Australia

68%

55%

52%

44%

41%

43%

47%

37%

-10%

Visionary

48%

38%

30%

26%

25%

31%

29%

30%

+1%

More honest than most politicians

45%

37%

37%

29%

26%

31%

30%

27%

-3%

Trustworthy

49%

42%

40%

30%

25%

30%

32%

25%

-7%

Julia Gillard’s key attributes were intelligent (69%), hard-working (66%), out of touch with ordinary people (64%), arrogant (55%), superficial (55%), narrow-minded (55%), aggressive (55%) and erratic (55%).    Almost all positive leader attributes for Gillard moved down and the negative attributes moved down from the last time the question was polled in January.   The biggest shifts were for erratic (+15%), a capable leader (-13%), intolerant (+12), out of touch with ordinary people (+11%), narrow-minded (+10%) and understands the problems facing Australia (-10%).

Leader attributes – comparisons

Apr 2, 2013
 

Gillard

Abbott

Difference

Out of touch with ordinary people

64%

52%

+12%

Erratic

55%

45%

+10%

Intelligent

69%

63%

+6%

Superficial

55%

49%

+6%

Aggressive

55%

49%

+6%

Narrow-minded

55%

53%

+2%

Intolerant

49%

48%

+1%

Good in a crisis

44%

44%

Arrogant

55%

56%

-1%

Hard-working

66%

70%

-4%

Visionary

30%

37%

-7%

More honest than most politicians

27%

36%

-9%

A capable leader

37%

47%

-10%

Trustworthy

25%

36%

-11%

Understands the problems facing Australia

37%

49%

-12%

Compared to Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard is seen as more likely to be considered out of touch with ordinary people (+12%) and erratic (+10%).

Tony Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to understand the problems facing Australians (+12) and to be trustworthy (+11%), a capable leader (+10%) and more honest than most politicians (+9%).

Social class

Apr 2, 2013

Q. Do you believe social classes still exist in Australia? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Income under $600pw

Income $600 – $1,000pw

Income $1,000 – $1,600pw

Income $1,600+

Yes

91%

 

90%

93%

96%

84%

90%

92%

93%

No

9%

10%

7%

4%

16%

10%

8%

7%

91% agreed that social class still exists in Australia – only 9% disagreed. There was little difference across demographic groups – more than 80% of all major groups agreed.