Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 2, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 2,089 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 3/09/2012

 

2 weeks ago 17/09/2012

Last week 24/09/2012

This week

Liberal

44%

45%

45%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

35%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 3/09/2012

2 weeks ago 17/09/2012

Last week

24/09/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

55%

55%

53%

Labor

50.1%

45%

45%

45%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Support or oppose the carbon tax

Oct 2, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

 

7 Mar 2011

14 June 2011

19 Sep 2011

21 Nov 2011

25 Jun 2012

This week

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

38%

37%

38%

35%

38%

65%

15%

69%

Total oppose

48%

49%

52%

53%

54%

48%

22%

76%

18%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

14%

14%

12%

26%

2%

25%

Support

26%

25%

23%

24%

21%

26%

39%

13%

44%

Oppose

19%

19%

17%

17%

19%

22%

15%

29%

16%

Strongly oppose

29%

30%

35%

36%

35%

26%

7%

47%

2%

Don’t know

18%

13%

12%

10%

11%

14%

13%

8%

12%

Whereas the majority of respondents have opposed the carbon tax since September 2011, this week’s results show that those opposed has fallen 6 points to 48%.

Support for the carbon tax over the same period (since September 2011) has not changed significantly, although since the last time the question was polled in June 2012, support has risen 3 points from 35% to 38%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to support the carbon tax (69%), whereas Coalition voters were the most likely to oppose it 76%.

Impact of carbon tax on cost of living

Oct 2, 2012

Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?

 

9 July   2012

20 Aug 2012

This week

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes, have noticed an increase in costs

31%

52%

69%

57%

83%

50%

No, have not noticed any increase in costs

54%

36%

24%

38%

9%

43%

Yes, have noticed a large increase in costs

22%

13%

33%

12%

Yes, have noticed a moderate increase in costs

27%

23%

33%

17%

Yes, have noticed a small increase in costs

20%

21%

20%

21%

No, have not noticed any increase in costs

24%

38%

9%

43%

Don’t know

15%

12%

7%

5%

5%

7%

Responses to this question were changed for this week’s poll from previous results, by separating out the ‘Yes, have noticed an increase in costs’ into three sub-categories: those who claim to have noticed a large increase, a moderate increase and a small increase.

Combining those respondents who believe they have noticed either a large, moderate or small price increases since the carbon tax was introduced, the total yes figure has shifted 17 points up to 69%, from 52% in August 2012.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters are by far the most likely to claim to have noticed an increase in the cost of goods and services (83%), compared to 57% of Labor voters and 50% of Greens voters.

Greens voters are the most likely to have not noticed any increase in costs (43%).

Reasons for prices increases under the carbon tax

Oct 2, 2012

Q. In respect of the increases to the costs of goods and services that you have noticed, do you believe that they are due to the carbon tax?

n=717

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes

62%

45%

73%

46%

No

12%

22%

8%

9%

Not sure

26%

33%

19%

45%

The 69% of respondents (n=717) that believed they had noticed a price increase were asked whether they believed the increases were due to the carbon tax.

Sixty two per cent (62%) of these respondents believe that it is due to the carbon tax, whilst 12% do not.  Twenty six per cent (26%) of respondents were not sure.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to attribute price increases to the carbon tax (73%) and 8% did not.

Forty five per cent (45%) of Labor voters believe the increases are due to the carbon tax and 22% do not.

Whilst 46% of Greens voters believe that the increases are due to the carbon tax (46%) an almost equal portion (45%) remain unsure.

Major spending initiatives of the federal government

Oct 2, 2012

Q. The federal government has recently announced a number of major spending initiatives on health, education and defence reforms that will involve substantial investment over the next few years.  For each of the reforms as they are described below, please indicate whether you believe it should be implemented or not

 

Implement the reform if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) and cuts in other areas

Do not implement the reform if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) or cuts in other areas

No opinion

National Disability Insurance Scheme to improve care and support for all people in Australia with a significant and permanent disability

58%

22%

20%

New dental health scheme to provide free dental care for low-income patients and children

53%

29%

18%

Gonski reforms to education to increase funding for each primary and secondary school student across the country

48%

30%

21%

Purchase of new advanced submarines for the Australian Defence Force

24%

50%

26%

The majority of respondents support implementing the NDIS (58%) and the new dental health scheme (53%) if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) and cuts in other areas.

A large portion of respondents (48%) also agree with implementing the Gonski reforms if it means higher taxes and cuts in other areas, whereas 30% would prefer to see these reforms not implemented.

On the purchase of new submarines for the ADF, most respondents felt that this reform should not be implemented if it means higher taxes and cuts in other areas (50%), whilst 24% are in favour of implementing the reform.

Federal government surplus

Oct 2, 2012

Q. Thinking about the federal government budget, how important do you believe it is for the budget to be in surplus…?

 

Total important

Total not important

Very important

Quite Important

Not very important

Not at all important

Don’t know

…for the country as a whole

68%

22%

26%

42%

18%

4%

10%

…for you personally

46%

42%

15%

31%

31%

11%

11%

A clear majority of respondents (68%) regard having a federal government budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole, whereas a significantly smaller portion regard to be important for them personally (46%).

Forty two per cent (42%) of respondents believe having a federal government budget surplus was not important for them personally.

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total important

Total not important

Total important

Total not important

Total important

Total not important

…for the country as a whole

59%

31%

78%

16%

58%

34%

…for you personally

39%

49%

59%

32%

28%

65%

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to regard a federal budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole (78%) as well as for them personally (59%).

Greens voters were the most likely to regard it as not important for them personally (65%).

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