Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,856 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal

 

40%

41%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

38%

40%

38%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

8%

9%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Weekly voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

The following tables show the weekly voting intention since the election was called.

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

3 weeks ago

13/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Sample

 

973

926

976

938

918

 

Liberal National

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

37%

41%

39%

36%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

7%

9%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

11%

9%

8%

10%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

3 weeks ago

13/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

51%

53%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

49%

47%

 

Firmness of voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

Total

19 Aug

Total

26 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

57%

63%

39%

20%

44%

46%

47%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

25%

25%

39%

33%

30%

32%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

9%

17%

39%

21%

17%

18%

Don’t know

4%

4%

3%

6%

8%

5%

5%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.

Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Approval of Kevin Rudd

Sep 2, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Julia Gillard

11 Jun 13

 

Kevin Rudd

15 Jul

Kevin Rudd

13 Aug

Kevin Rudd

26 Aug

 

Kevin Rudd

2 Sep

Total approve

37%

50%

45%

41%

42%

Total disapprove

54%

35%

43%

45%

47%

Strongly approve

10%

18%

11%

11%

13%

Approve

27%

32%

34%

30%

29%

Disapprove

21%

15%

21%

20%

19%

Strongly disapprove

33%

20%

22%

25%

28%

Don’t know

9%

16%

12%

14%

11%

Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have remained much the same over the past week. 42% (up 1%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 47% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -4 to -5.

86% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 7% disapprove (down 1%).

By gender – men 46% approve/46% disapprove, women 39% approve/48% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from -4 to 0 and with women from -5 to -9.