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  • Sep, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,856 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    5/8/13

    2 weeks ago

    19/8/13

    Last week

    26/8/13

    This week

    2/9/13

    Liberal

     

    40%

    41%

    40%

    41%

    National

    3%

    3%

    2%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    44%

    Labor

    38.0%

    38%

    40%

    38%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    8%

    11%

    11%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    10%

    8%

    9%

    10%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    5/8/13

    2 weeks ago

    19/8/13

    Last week

    26/8/13

    This week

    2/9/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    51%

    50%

    50%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Sep, 2013

    , , ,

    Weekly voting intention

    The following tables show the weekly voting intention since the election was called.

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    5/8/13

    3 weeks ago

    13/8/13

    2 weeks ago

    19/8/13

    Last week

    26/8/13

    This week

    2/9/13

    Sample

     

    973

    926

    976

    938

    918

     

    Liberal National

    43.6%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    43%

    44%

    Labor

    38.0%

    37%

    41%

    39%

    36%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    7%

    9%

    11%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    11%

    9%

    8%

    10%

    11%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    5/8/13

    3 weeks ago

    13/8/13

    2 weeks ago

    19/8/13

    Last week

    26/8/13

    This week

    2/9/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    51%

    50%

    50%

    51%

    53%

    Labor

    50.1%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    49%

    47%

     

  • Sep, 2013

    , , ,

    Firmness of voting intention

    Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

     

    Total

    Gave voting intention

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Other party/ Independent

     

    Total

    5 Aug

    Total

    19 Aug

    Total

    26 Aug

    I will definitely not change my mind

    54%

    57%

    63%

    39%

    20%

    44%

    46%

    47%

    It is very unlikely I will change my mind

    27%

    25%

    25%

    39%

    33%

    30%

    32%

    30%

    It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

    15%

    14%

    9%

    17%

    39%

    21%

    17%

    18%

    Don’t know

    4%

    4%

    3%

    6%

    8%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.

    Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

  • Sep, 2013

    , ,

    Approval of Kevin Rudd

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    Julia Gillard

    11 Jun 13

     

    Kevin Rudd

    15 Jul

    Kevin Rudd

    13 Aug

    Kevin Rudd

    26 Aug

     

    Kevin Rudd

    2 Sep

    Total approve

    37%

    50%

    45%

    41%

    42%

    Total disapprove

    54%

    35%

    43%

    45%

    47%

    Strongly approve

    10%

    18%

    11%

    11%

    13%

    Approve

    27%

    32%

    34%

    30%

    29%

    Disapprove

    21%

    15%

    21%

    20%

    19%

    Strongly disapprove

    33%

    20%

    22%

    25%

    28%

    Don’t know

    9%

    16%

    12%

    14%

    11%

    Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have remained much the same over the past week. 42% (up 1%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 47% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -4 to -5.

    86% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 7% disapprove (down 1%).

    By gender – men 46% approve/46% disapprove, women 39% approve/48% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from -4 to 0 and with women from -5 to -9.

  • Sep, 2013

    ,

    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan
    10

    5
    Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 June  11

    12 Dec

    12 Jun 12

    10 Dec

    11 Mar 13

    11 Jun

    15 Jul

    13 Aug

    26 Aug

     

    2 Sep

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    37%

    40%

    39%

    37%

    37%

    40%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    48%

    53%

    54%

    56%

    51%

    49%

    51%

    51%

    52%

    49%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    7%

    10%

    11%

    9%

    10%

    13%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    32%

    26%

    26%

    25%

    30%

    30%

    28%

    28%

    27%

    27%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    25%

    25%

    24%

    25%

    22%

    17%

    21%

    21%

    23%

    19%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    28%

    30%

    31%

    29%

    32%

    30%

    30%

    29%

    30%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    15%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    11%

    10%

    10%

    Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have improved over the past week. 40% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -9 over the past week.

    80% (up 7%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (down 5%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 44% approve/49% disapprove, women 37% approve/50% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -2 to -5 and a shift with women from -28 to -13.

  • Sep, 2013

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    Leader attributes – Kevin Rudd

    Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?

     

    8 Jul 13

     

    2 Sep 13

    Change

    Intelligent

    77%

    74%

    -3

    Hard-working

    70%

    70%

    Arrogant

    49%

    60%

    +11

    A capable leader

    58%

    54%

    -4

    Superficial

    44%

    54%

    +10

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    57%

    53%

    -4

    Aggressive

    43%

    53%

    +10

    Good in a crisis

    53%

    52%

    -1

    Erratic

    45%

    51%

    +6

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    39%

    46%

    +7

    Intolerant

    37%

    46%

    +9

    Visionary

    43%

    42%

    -1

    Narrow-minded

    34%

    38%

    +4

    Trustworthy

    42%

    35%

    -7

    More honest than most politicians

    41%

    35%

    -6

    Kevin Rudd’s key attributes were intelligent (74%), hard-working (70%), arrogant (60%), a capable leader (54%) and superficial (54%).

    Since this question was asked in July, there have been significant changes for arrogant (up 11%), superficial (up 10%), aggressive (up 10%) and intolerant (up 9%).

  • Sep, 2013

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    Leader attributes – Tony Abbott

    Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 10

    27 Jun 11

    2 Apr 12

    14 Jan 13

    2 Apr

    23 Jun

    8 Jul

     

    2 Sep

    Change

    Hard-working

    76%

    75%

    68%

    70%

    70%

    68%

    65%

    71%

    +6

    Intelligent

    70%

    61%

    56%

    64%

    63%

    62%

    60%

    63%

    +3

    Narrow-minded

    56%

    54%

    54%

    56%

    53%

    55%

    55%

    55%

    Arrogant

    59%

    60%

    61%

    61%

    56%

    59%

    54%

    52%

    -2

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    57%

    57%

    54%

    54%

    52%

    52%

    50%

    52%

    +2

    Superficial

    49%

    49%

    48%

    49%

    49%

    47%

    48%

    +1

    Aggressive

    55%

    49%

    51%

    50%

    47%

    -3

    Intolerant

    49%

    48%

    48%

    46%

    47%

    +1

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    50%

    48%

    49%

    47%

    49%

    44%

    45%

    46%

    +1

    A capable leader

    47%

    45%

    41%

    43%

    47%

    44%

    42%

    46%

    +4

    Erratic

    51%

    45%

    47%

    45%

    43%

    -2

    Good in a crisis

    40%

    40%

    36%

    39%

    44%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    +1

    Trustworthy

    33%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    36%

    31%

    32%

    38%

    +6

    Visionary

    32%

    27%

    26%

    28%

    37%

    30%

    26%

    35%

    +9

    More honest than most politicians

    33%

    32%

    30%

    29%

    36%

    29%

    30%

    34%

    +4

    Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (71%), intelligent (63%), narrow-minded (55%), arrogant (52%) and out of touch with ordinary people (52%).

    Since July, the largest shifts have been for visionary (+9), hard-working (+6) and trustworthy (+6).

  • Sep, 2013

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    Leader attributes – comparisons

     

    Rudd

    Abbott

     

    Difference

    Good in a crisis

    52%

    39%

    +13

    Intelligent

    74%

    63%

    +9

    Arrogant

    60%

    52%

    +8

    A capable leader

    54%

    46%

    +8

    Erratic

    51%

    43%

    +8

    Visionary

    42%

    35%

    +7

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    53%

    46%

    +7

    Superficial

    54%

    48%

    +6

    Aggressive

    53%

    47%

    +6

    More honest than most politicians

    35%

    34%

    +1

    Hard-working

    70%

    71%

    -1

    Intolerant

    46%

    47%

    -1

    Trustworthy

    35%

    38%

    -3

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    46%

    52%

    -6

    Narrow-minded

    38%

    55%

    -17

    Compared to Tony Abbott, Kevin Rudd is much likely to be considered good in a crisis (+13), intelligent (+9), arrogant (+8), a capable leader (+8), erratic (+8), visionary (+7) and understands the problems facing Australia (+7).

    Tony Abbott is regarded by more respondents to be narrow-minded (-17) and out of touch with ordinary people (-6).

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