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  • Oct, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 2,089 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 3/09/2012

     

    2 weeks ago 17/09/2012

    Last week 24/09/2012

    This week

    Liberal

    44%

    45%

    45%

    44%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    48%

    47%

    Labor

    38.0%

    34%

    34%

    35%

    36%

    Greens

    11.8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    7%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 3/09/2012

    2 weeks ago 17/09/2012

    Last week

    24/09/2012

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    55%

    55%

    55%

    53%

    Labor

    50.1%

    45%

    45%

    45%

    47%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Support or oppose the carbon tax

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    14 June 2011

    19 Sep 2011

    21 Nov 2011

    25 Jun 2012

    This week

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    38%

    37%

    38%

    35%

    38%

    65%

    15%

    69%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    52%

    53%

    54%

    48%

    22%

    76%

    18%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    12%

    26%

    2%

    25%

    Support

    26%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    21%

    26%

    39%

    13%

    44%

    Oppose

    19%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    15%

    29%

    16%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    30%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    26%

    7%

    47%

    2%

    Don’t know

    18%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    14%

    13%

    8%

    12%

    Whereas the majority of respondents have opposed the carbon tax since September 2011, this week’s results show that those opposed has fallen 6 points to 48%.

    Support for the carbon tax over the same period (since September 2011) has not changed significantly, although since the last time the question was polled in June 2012, support has risen 3 points from 35% to 38%.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to support the carbon tax (69%), whereas Coalition voters were the most likely to oppose it 76%.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Impact of carbon tax on cost of living

    Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?

     

    9 July   2012

    20 Aug 2012

    This week

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Yes, have noticed an increase in costs

    31%

    52%

    69%

    57%

    83%

    50%

    No, have not noticed any increase in costs

    54%

    36%

    24%

    38%

    9%

    43%

    Yes, have noticed a large increase in costs

    22%

    13%

    33%

    12%

    Yes, have noticed a moderate increase in costs

    27%

    23%

    33%

    17%

    Yes, have noticed a small increase in costs

    20%

    21%

    20%

    21%

    No, have not noticed any increase in costs

    24%

    38%

    9%

    43%

    Don’t know

    15%

    12%

    7%

    5%

    5%

    7%

    Responses to this question were changed for this week’s poll from previous results, by separating out the ‘Yes, have noticed an increase in costs’ into three sub-categories: those who claim to have noticed a large increase, a moderate increase and a small increase.

    Combining those respondents who believe they have noticed either a large, moderate or small price increases since the carbon tax was introduced, the total yes figure has shifted 17 points up to 69%, from 52% in August 2012.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters are by far the most likely to claim to have noticed an increase in the cost of goods and services (83%), compared to 57% of Labor voters and 50% of Greens voters.

    Greens voters are the most likely to have not noticed any increase in costs (43%).

  • Oct, 2012

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    Reasons for prices increases under the carbon tax

    Q. In respect of the increases to the costs of goods and services that you have noticed, do you believe that they are due to the carbon tax?

    n=717

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Yes

    62%

    45%

    73%

    46%

    No

    12%

    22%

    8%

    9%

    Not sure

    26%

    33%

    19%

    45%

    The 69% of respondents (n=717) that believed they had noticed a price increase were asked whether they believed the increases were due to the carbon tax.

    Sixty two per cent (62%) of these respondents believe that it is due to the carbon tax, whilst 12% do not.  Twenty six per cent (26%) of respondents were not sure.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to attribute price increases to the carbon tax (73%) and 8% did not.

    Forty five per cent (45%) of Labor voters believe the increases are due to the carbon tax and 22% do not.

    Whilst 46% of Greens voters believe that the increases are due to the carbon tax (46%) an almost equal portion (45%) remain unsure.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Major spending initiatives of the federal government

    Q. The federal government has recently announced a number of major spending initiatives on health, education and defence reforms that will involve substantial investment over the next few years.  For each of the reforms as they are described below, please indicate whether you believe it should be implemented or not

     

    Implement the reform if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) and cuts in other areas

    Do not implement the reform if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) or cuts in other areas

    No opinion

    National Disability Insurance Scheme to improve care and support for all people in Australia with a significant and permanent disability

    58%

    22%

    20%

    New dental health scheme to provide free dental care for low-income patients and children

    53%

    29%

    18%

    Gonski reforms to education to increase funding for each primary and secondary school student across the country

    48%

    30%

    21%

    Purchase of new advanced submarines for the Australian Defence Force

    24%

    50%

    26%

    The majority of respondents support implementing the NDIS (58%) and the new dental health scheme (53%) if it means higher taxes (including corporate and mining taxes) and cuts in other areas.

    A large portion of respondents (48%) also agree with implementing the Gonski reforms if it means higher taxes and cuts in other areas, whereas 30% would prefer to see these reforms not implemented.

    On the purchase of new submarines for the ADF, most respondents felt that this reform should not be implemented if it means higher taxes and cuts in other areas (50%), whilst 24% are in favour of implementing the reform.

  • Oct, 2012

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    Federal government surplus

    Q. Thinking about the federal government budget, how important do you believe it is for the budget to be in surplus…?

     

    Total important

    Total not important

    Very important

    Quite Important

    Not very important

    Not at all important

    Don’t know

    …for the country as a whole

    68%

    22%

    26%

    42%

    18%

    4%

    10%

    …for you personally

    46%

    42%

    15%

    31%

    31%

    11%

    11%

    A clear majority of respondents (68%) regard having a federal government budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole, whereas a significantly smaller portion regard to be important for them personally (46%).

    Forty two per cent (42%) of respondents believe having a federal government budget surplus was not important for them personally.

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total important

    Total not important

    Total important

    Total not important

    Total important

    Total not important

    …for the country as a whole

    59%

    31%

    78%

    16%

    58%

    34%

    …for you personally

    39%

    49%

    59%

    32%

    28%

    65%

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to regard a federal budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole (78%) as well as for them personally (59%).

    Greens voters were the most likely to regard it as not important for them personally (65%).

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