Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 3, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,871 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

6/8/12

2 weeks ago

20/8/12

Last week

27/8/12

This week

3/9/12

Liberal

46%

46%

46%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

48%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

32%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

57%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

43%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Criticism of Female Politicians

Sep 3, 2012

Q. In general, do you think female politicians are subjected to more or less personal criticism than male politicians?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Men

Women

More

52%

71%

38%

80%

40%

63%

Less

4%

2%

7%

1%

6%

2%

About the same

40%

25%

53%

16%

49%

31%

Don’t know

5%

1%

3%

3%

5%

4%

52% think that female politicians are subjected to more personal criticism than male politicians. 40% think they receive about the same level of personal criticism and 4% think they receive less.

63% of women think female politicians receive more personal criticism but 55% of men think they receive about the same or less.

Criticism of Julia Gillard

Sep 3, 2012

Q. Do you think the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more or less personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Men

Women

More

51%

77%

34%

74%

42%

61%

Less

6%

3%

10%

1%

8%

4%

About the same

38%

18%

54%

19%

46%

31%

Don’t know

5%

2%

2%

6%

5%

5%

51% think that the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be. 38% think she has received about the same level of personal criticism and 6% think she has received less.

61% of women think Julia Gillard has received more personal criticism but 54% of men think she has received about the same or less.

Groups better off under Labor or Liberal Government

Sep 3, 2012

Q. Do you think the following groups of people would be better off under a Labor Government or a Liberal Government?

 

Better off under a Labor Government

Better off under a Liberal Government

Makes no difference

Don’t know

Difference

(Labor minus Liberal)

Pensioners

36%

20%

29%

15%

+16

Unemployed people

41%

14%

29%

15%

+27

People with disabilities

36%

16%

30%

17%

+20

People and families on low incomes

44%

17%

25%

13%

+27

People and families on middle incomes

26%

33%

28%

13%

-7

People and families on high incomes

11%

54%

21%

13%

-43

Single parents

39%

16%

29%

16%

+23

Average working people

32%

27%

28%

13%

+5

Large corporations

9%

57%

20%

14%

-48

Banks and other financial institutions

9%

47%

27%

16%

-38

Small businesses

21%

37%

26%

16%

-16

Families with children at public school

38%

19%

28%

15%

+19

Families with children at private school

14%

44%

27%

16%

-30

Recent immigrants to Australia

35%

17%

30%

17%

+18

Farmers and other agricultural producers

19%

32%

31%

19%

-13

Respondents were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Labor Government – unemployed, low income families, single parents and people with disabilities.

They were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Liberal Government – large corporations, high income families, banks and financial institutions, families with children at private schools.

Groups better off under by Respondent Category 

Respondent category (respondent or family member is in this category) Groups better or worse off

Better off under a Labor Government

Better off under a Liberal Government

Makes no difference

Don’t know

Difference

(Labor minus Liberal)

Pensioners Pensioners

41%

25%

26%

8%

+16

Unemployed Unemployed people

42%

13%

30%

15%

+29

Have a disability People with disabilities

44%

18%

31%

8%

+26

On low income People and families on low incomes

44%

17%

26%

13%

+27

On middle income People and families on middle incomes

25%

37%

27%

11%

-12

On high income People and families on high incomes

16%

58%

15%

11%

-42

Single parent Single parents

38%

19%

27%

16%

+19

Working Average working people

30%

29%

29%

12%

+1

Work for a large corporation Large corporations

11%

57%

18%

14%

-46

Work for a bank or other financial institution Banks and other financial institutions

23%

45%

16%

16%

-22

Work for a small business Small businesses

24%

37%

25%

14%

-13

Self-employed or own a small business Small businesses

24%

40%

20%

17%

-16

Have children at public school Families with children at public school

39%

17%

27%

16%

+22

Have children at private school Families with children at private school

21%

42%

22%

15%

-21

Recent immigrants to Australia * Recent immigrants to Australia

63%

9%

20%

9%

+54

Farmers and other agricultural producers Farmers and other agricultural producers

27%

38%

19%

17%

-11

* small sample – less than 100

This table shows groups affected mainly held views similar to the total sample. The main exceptions were that people with disabilities were more likely to think they would be better off under Labor, people working in banks/finance were more likely to think banks/financial institutions would be better off under Labor and people with children at primary school were more likely to think they would be better off under a Labor Government.

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Sep 3, 2012

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

 

31 May 10

12 July 10

21 Nov 11

23 Jul 12

Total

3 Sept 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total likely

58%

56%

51%

53%

51%

74%

33%

68%

50%

55%

Total unlikely

21%

24%

27%

22%

25%

12%

43%

11%

28%

21%

Very likely

28%

26%

22%

26%

23%

47%

5%

32%

19%

21%

Quite likely

30%

30%

29%

27%

28%

27%

28%

36%

31%

34%

Not very likely

18%

18%

19%

16%

18%

10%

30%

8%

21%

16%

Not at all likely

3%

6%

8%

6%

7%

2%

13%

3%

7%

5%

Don’t know

20%

20%

22%

26%

24%

14%

24%

22%

23%

24%

Respondents were a little less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in July. 51% (down 2%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 25% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.

74% of Labor voters and 68% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 33% likely (down 7%) to 43% unlikely (up 9%).

Concern about Liberals Bringing Back WorkChoices

Sep 3, 2012

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?  

 

31 May 10

12 July 10

21 Nov 11

23 Jul 12

Total

3 Sept 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Very concerned

28%

29%

26%

30%

27%

51%

6%

39%

24%

32%

Quite concerned

17%

19%

15%

16%

15%

20%

12%

21%

18%

12%

A little concerned

20%

16%

20%

15%

19%

16%

23%

16%

20%

24%

Not concerned

24%

25%

27%

26%

26%

5%

50%

4%

29%

19%

Don’t know

11%

11%

11%

14%

13%

8%

8%

20%

9%

12%

Respondents were also a little less concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than in July. 42% (down 4%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 45% (up 4%) were only a little or not concerned.

71% of Labor voters and 60% of Greens voters would be concerned. 73% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 18% concerned.  42% of full-time workers and 44% of part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.

49% of those aged 45-64 said they would be very/quite concerned.

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