Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 5, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,928 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago

21/1/13

Last week

29/01/13

This week

5/02/13

Liberal

44%

44%

45%

National

4%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

35%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

54%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

 

Election date announcement

Feb 5, 2013

Q.The Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced the Federal Election will be held on September 14 this year. Do you approve or disapprove of the election date being announced nearly 8 months in advance?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

48%

73%

35%

45%

Total disapprove

34%

13%

50%

35%

Strongly approve

15%

24%

10%

16%

Approve

33%

49%

25%

29%

Disapprove

19%

10%

25%

26%

Strongly disapprove

15%

3%

25%

9%

Don’t know

19%

14%

16%

20%

48% approve of the announcement of the next Federal election date and 34% disapprove. 73% of Labor voters approve compared to 45% of Greens voters and 35% of Liberal/National voters. 50% of Liberal/National voters disapprove.

There were no major differences by demographics – although men were a little more likely to approve (53%) and women a little more likely to disapprove (38%).

Budget surplus

Feb 5, 2013

Q. Thinking about the Federal Government budget, how important do you believe it is for the budget to be in surplus…?

 

Total impor
-tant

Total
not impor
-tant

Very impor
-tant

Quite Impor
-tant

Not very impor
-tant

Not
at all impor
-tant

Don’t know

Total impor
-tant
2 Oct
12

…for the country as a whole

69%

26%

28%

41%

22%

4%

5%

68%

…for you personally

54%

39%

20%

34%

29%

10%

7%

46%

A clear majority of respondents (69%) regard having a Federal Government budget surplus to be important for the country as a whole, whereas a somewhat smaller majority regard it to be important for them personally (54%).

39% of respondents believe having a Federal Government budget surplus was not important for them personally.

Since this question was last asked in October, those who think a budget surplus is important for them personally has increased from 46% to 54%.

Those most likely to think a budget surplus is important to them personally were Liberal/National voters (67%) and full-time workers (60%).

Approval of budget surplus

Feb 5, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision not to return the budget to surplus this financial year?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

42%

64%

29%

55%

Total disapprove

37%

12%

57%

25%

Strongly approve

9%

18%

5%

8%

Approve

33%

46%

24%

47%

Disapprove

27%

11%

39%

22%

Strongly disapprove

10%

1%

18%

3%

Don’t know

21%

23%

14%

20%

42% approve of the Government’s decision not to return the budget to surplus this financial year and 37% disapprove.

Those most likely to approve were Labor voters (64%), Greens voters (55%), men (51%), aged 55+ (50%) and people on incomes under $600pw (50%).

57% of Liberal/National voters disapprove.

Will the Coalition deliver a surplus

Feb 5, 2013

Q. Do you think that if Tony Abbott and Coalition win the next election, they will deliver a budget surplus in their first year of Government?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Probably will deliver a surplus

19%

10%

31%

14%

Probably won’t deliver a surplus

60%

74%

52%

66%

Don’t know

20%

16%

18%

20%

60% think that if Tony Abbott and Coalition win the next election, they probably won’t deliver a budget surplus in their first year of Government and 19% think they probably will.

A majority of all demographic and voter groups (including Liberal/National voters) think the Coalition will probably not deliver a surplus in their first year if elected.

Changes in cost of living

Feb 5, 2013

Q. Compared to two or three years ago is your household paying more or less for the following –

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paying a lot more

 

Paying a lot more

Paying a little more

Paying about the same

Paying a little less

Paying a lot less

Don’t know

Own home outright

Own home with mortgage

Renting

Petrol

50%

33%

11%

2%

1%

4%

44%

49%

55%

Fresh food – fruit, vegetables, meat

36%

43%

16%

4%

*

2%

33%

35%

41%

Packaged food

28%

39%

24%

4%

*

4%

26%

27%

33%

Electricity and gas

70%

22%

4%

1%

1%

2%

69%

73%

71%

Housing – mortgage or rent

24%

22%

29%

10%

3%

12%

10%

21%

40%

Insurance

43%

36%

14%

1%

1%

5%

48%

47%

35%

Water

47%

32%

14%

1%

1%

6%

48%

54%

38%

Clothing

21%

30%

37%

9%

1%

2%

17%

21%

25%

Education

24%

20%

27%

3%

3%

23%

15%

28%

26%

Medical, dental

33%

33%

27%

2%

*

3%

33%

35%

34%

Items which respondents said they were “paying a lot more” for were electricity and gas (70%), petrol (50%), water (47%) and insurance (43%).

Homeowners had similar responses to the total sample, but the main things renters were paying a lot more for were electricity and gas (71%), petrol (55%), fresh food (41%) and housing (40%).

Government regulation

Feb 5, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Governments making laws to regulate the following?

 

Total approve

Total dis
-approve

Strongly approve

Approve

Dis
-approve

Strongly dis
-approve

Don’t know

Total approve 30 Apr 12

Wearing seatbelts in cars

97%

2%

77%

20%

2%

*

1%

97%

Wearing bike helmets

92%

6%

68%

24%

5%

1%

2%

94%

Personal use of recreational drugs

64%

27%

34%

30%

12%

15%

10%

59%

Smoking in public places

72%

25%

46%

26%

13%

12%

3%

67%

Buying and consuming alcohol

73%

21%

31%

42%

15%

6%

5%

69%

Shopping hours

56%

35%

17%

39%

25%

10%

9%

56%

Cigarette packaging

67%

27%

40%

27%

14%

13%

6%

64%

Junk food advertising

71%

24%

31%

40%

16%

8%

4%

66%

Gambling, poker machines

73%

23%

40%

33%

13%

10%

4%

na

Films (i.e. censorship)

61%

31%

20%

41%

21%

10%

8%

62%

The internet

53%

38%

18%

35%

22%

16%

8%

49%

Making public statements which other people might find offensive

41%

44%

13%

28%

26%

18%

15%

na

For each of the areas listed above more than half of respondents approved of Governments making laws to regulate the area – with the exception of “making public statements which other people might find offensive” (41% approve/44% disapprove).

The highest levels of approval were for wearing seatbelts in cars (97%) and wearing bike helmets (92%). The highest levels of disapproval were for making public statements which other people might find offensive (44%), the internet (38%) and shopping hours (35%).

Since this question was asked in April last year approval of regulation has increased for personal use of recreational drugs (+5%), smoking in public places (+5%) and junk food advertising (+5%).