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  • Sep, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September  – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    5/8/13

    13/8/13

    19/8/13

    26/8/13

    2/9/13

    5/9/13

     

     

    Liberal National

    43.6%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    43%

    44%

    43%

    Labor

    38.0%

    37%

    41%

    39%

    36%

    35%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    7%

    9%

    11%

    10%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    11%

    9%

    8%

    10%

    11%

    12%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    5/8/13

    13/8/13

    19/8/13

    26/8/13

    2/9/13

    5/9/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    51%

    50%

    50%

    51%

    53%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    49%

    50%

    50%

    49%

    47%

    48%

    Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Sep, 2013

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    Firmness of voting intention

    Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

     

    Total

    Gave voting intention

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Other party/ Independent

     

    5 Aug

    19 Aug

    26 Aug

    2 Sep

    I will definitely not change my mind

    54%

    54%

    63%

    42%

    29%

    44%

    46%

    47%

    54%

    It is very unlikely I will change my mind

    27%

    29%

    22%

    32%

    32%

    30%

    32%

    30%

    27%

    It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

    15%

    14%

    12%

    18%

    30%

    21%

    17%

    18%

    15%

    Don’t know

    4%

    3%

    3%

    9%

    9%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    4%

    54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.

    Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

  • Sep, 2013

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    Opinion of Kevin Rudd

    Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party gone up or down?

     

    Total

     

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total gone up

    16%

    33%

    6%

    9%

    Total gone down

    40%

    12%

    65%

    42%

    Gone up a lot

    7%

    16%

    2%

    6%

    Gone up a little

    9%

    17%

    4%

    3%

    Stayed the same

    38%

    53%

    26%

    47%

    Gone down a little

    14%

    9%

    16%

    25%

    Gone down a lot

    26%

    3%

    49%

    17%

    Don’t know

    5%

    2%

    3%

    2%

    16% say their opinion of Kevin Rudd has gone up since the election was called and 40% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 65% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Kevin Rudd had gone down and 33% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone up. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.

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