Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 5, 2013

Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September  – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

5/8/13

13/8/13

19/8/13

26/8/13

2/9/13

5/9/13

 

 

Liberal National

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

37%

41%

39%

36%

35%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

7%

9%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

11%

9%

8%

10%

11%

12%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

5/8/13

13/8/13

19/8/13

26/8/13

2/9/13

5/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

51%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

49%

47%

48%

Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Sep 5, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

5 Aug

19 Aug

26 Aug

2 Sep

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

54%

63%

42%

29%

44%

46%

47%

54%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

29%

22%

32%

32%

30%

32%

30%

27%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

12%

18%

30%

21%

17%

18%

15%

Don’t know

4%

3%

3%

9%

9%

5%

5%

4%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.

Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Reasons for vote

Sep 5, 2013

Q. Which of the following are the main reasons why you will vote for that party? (up to 3 responses)

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

Better at handling Australia’s economy

42%

29%

69%

7%

13%

Better at looking after the interests people like me

28%

37%

19%

25%

35%

They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians

33%

37%

24%

33%

51%

I always vote for the same party

10%

13%

10%

9%

1%

They have a better leader

20%

35%

14%

5%

13%

More trustworthy than the other parties

22%

21%

15%

45%

33%

They are more united

12%

2%

21%

15%

5%

They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties

15%

10%

26%

6%

3%

They have better policies on things like education and health

15%

29%

4%

21%

9%

They have better policies on things like environment and climate change

11%

13%

1%

55%

6%

They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers

8%

16%

3%

8%

8%

They have better policies on things like national security and immigration

9%

3%

12%

15%

6%

We need a change of Government

18%

1%

28%

10%

36%

No reason

4%

5%

3%

1%

4%

Don’t know

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

Main reasons for voting Labor were better at looking after the interests of people like me (37%), more likely to represent the interests of all Australians (37%) and have a better leader (35%).

Main reasons for voting Liberal or National were better at handling the economy (69%), need a change of Government (28%) and more capable of governing effectively (26%).

Opinion of Kevin Rudd

Sep 5, 2013

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party gone up or down?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total gone up

16%

33%

6%

9%

Total gone down

40%

12%

65%

42%

Gone up a lot

7%

16%

2%

6%

Gone up a little

9%

17%

4%

3%

Stayed the same

38%

53%

26%

47%

Gone down a little

14%

9%

16%

25%

Gone down a lot

26%

3%

49%

17%

Don’t know

5%

2%

3%

2%

16% say their opinion of Kevin Rudd has gone up since the election was called and 40% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 65% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Kevin Rudd had gone down and 33% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone up. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.

Opinion of Tony Abbott

Sep 5, 2013

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total gone up

25%

7%

51%

8%

Total gone down

35%

59%

5%

63%

Gone up a lot

10%

2%

21%

1%

Gone up a little

15%

5%

30%

7%

Stayed the same

35%

32%

42%

27%

Gone down a little

11%

15%

3%

19%

Gone down a lot

24%

44%

2%

44%

Don’t know

5%

2%

3%

1%

25% say their opinion of Tony Abbott has gone up since the election was called and 35% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 51% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Tony Abbott had gone up and 59% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone down. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.

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